Natwest Group (LSE:NWG) and some thoughts on SVB

#Brent #Dax

We have reason to believe one of “our” local wildlife pets is a murderer. The suspect is Hagrid, a snowy owl and the victim (we think) was Sally, a wood pigeon. The only evidence, a crime scene of feathers in the rough outline of a pigeon, looking like an “easy to assemble” product from Ikea. Meanwhile, in the USA, a bank has collapsed!

The demise Silicon Valley Bank, the 2nd largest bank collapse in US history, is a bit of a worry. As 2008 taught everyone, when a bank goes down, there’s a great risk of contagion both within the sector and also, amongst companies who dealt with the suddenly deceased bank. Thankfully the bank was able to issue bonus payments to its employees in the hours before the collapse was announced… Inevitably, there’s liable to be rumbles through the market place as the depth of the damage becomes known. Perhaps it shall be the case where following events of 2008, central banks insisted banks strengthen their ability to survive disaster and hopefully, each dreadful and inevitable headline in the coming week shall only provoke short term market reversals until the true story is told.

But our inclination, overall, is to anticipate some turbulence in the week ahead, this event almost overshadowing the death of a pigeon.

 

In the case of Natwest, despite the breaking news on Friday, their share price proved fairly resilient and our inclination is to start worrying should it manage below 272p. Such a movement risks triggering near term reversal to around 262p with our secondary, if broken, at 238p. Visually, there is some hope for a bounce at the 262p level, unfortunately the manipulation gap on Friday causing some confusion as to where we’d normally hope for a bounce. Any bounce capable of allowing the price to close a session above Blue, presently 274p, ticks the first box in a series suggesting “panic is over”.

However, should 262p break, there’s a strong visual probability of a trip to 238p, capable of challenging the uptrend since 2020.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop
5:03:25PM BRENT 82.53 80.5 79.535 78.43 81.56 82.85 83.11 83.98 81.87
5:05:30PM GOLD 1870.02 1852
5:08:01PM FTSE 7682 7725
5:10:11PM STOX50 4180.7 4211
5:11:49PM GERMANY 15293 15269 15216 15122 15344 15498 15522 15606 15365
5:14:18PM US500 3876 3862
5:16:18PM DOW 32009 31921
5:18:20PM NASDAQ 11872 11958
5:20:03PM JAPAN 27776 28056

 

10/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7748 points. Change of -1.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,994,694,563 a change of 6.35%
9/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7879 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,576,891,587 a change of 1.82%
8/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7929 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,459,565,037 a change of 19.23%
7/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7919 points. Change of -0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,417,813,576 a change of -3.92%
6/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7929 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,638,585,361 a change of -4.78%
3/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7947 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,921,700,262 a change of -13.69%
2/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7944 points. Change of 34.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,861,176,489 a change of -1.62%

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…

Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares

Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AZN Astrazeneca** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:CCL Carnival** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust** **LSE:TERN Tern Plc** **LSE:TSCO Tesco** **

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Updated charts published on : Astrazeneca, Barclays, Carnival, Glencore Xstra, British Airways, IQE, Intertek, Ocado Plc, Rockhopper, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, Tern Plc, Tesco,

LSE:AZN Astrazeneca Close Mid-Price: 10698 Percentage Change: -1.55% Day High: 10994 Day Low: 10590

Weakness on Astrazeneca below 10590 will invariably lead to 9918 with sec ……..

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View Previous Astrazeneca & Big Picture ***

LSE:BARC Barclays Close Mid-Price: 157.42 Percentage Change: -3.67% Day High: 159 Day Low: 151.28

Target met. Continued weakness against BARC taking the price below 151.28 ……..

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View Previous Barclays & Big Picture ***

LSE:CCL Carnival Close Mid-Price: 744.4 Percentage Change: -3.82% Day High: 753.2 Day Low: 709

Weakness on Carnival below 709 will invariably lead to 642 with secondary ……..

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View Previous Carnival & Big Picture ***

LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra Close Mid-Price: 473 Percentage Change: -0.08% Day High: 475.35 Day Low: 455.5

Target met. Continued weakness against GLEN taking the price below 455.5 ……..

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View Previous Glencore Xstra & Big Picture ***

LSE:IAG British Airways Close Mid-Price: 148.26 Percentage Change: -3.33% Day High: 150.2 Day Low: 147.04

Target met. In the event British Airways experiences weakness below 147. ……..

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View Previous British Airways & Big Picture ***

LSE:IQE IQE Close Mid-Price: 27.85 Percentage Change: -3.97% Day High: 29.8 Day Low: 26.1

Weakness on IQE below 26.1 will invariably lead to 25p with secondary (if ……..

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View Previous IQE & Big Picture ***

LSE:ITRK Intertek Close Mid-Price: 4130 Percentage Change: -1.71% Day High: 4202 Day Low: 4108

Continued weakness against ITRK taking the price below 4108 calculates as ……..

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View Previous Intertek & Big Picture ***

LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc Close Mid-Price: 451.1 Percentage Change: -6.53% Day High: 471 Day Low: 448.7

Target met. In the event Ocado Plc experiences weakness below 448.7 it ca ……..

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View Previous Ocado Plc & Big Picture ***

LSE:RKH Rockhopper. Close Mid-Price: 11.8 Percentage Change: + 7.27% Day High: 12 Day Low: 10.6

Further movement against Rockhopper ABOVE 12 should improve acceleration ……..

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View Previous Rockhopper & Big Picture ***

LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Close Mid-Price: 678.2 Percentage Change: -3.31% Day High: 692.8 Day Low: 668.4

Continued weakness against SMT taking the price below 668.4 calculates as ……..

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View Previous Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust & Big Picture ***

LSE:TERN Tern Plc Close Mid-Price: 6.25 Percentage Change: -7.41% Day High: 7 Day Low: 6.25

Target met. If Tern Plc experiences continued weakness below 6.25, it wil ……..

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View Previous Tern Plc & Big Picture ***

LSE:TSCO Tesco Close Mid-Price: 259.6 Percentage Change: -1.22% Day High: 264 Day Low: 257.8

All Tesco needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 264 to improve acceleration to ……..

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View Previous Tesco & Big Picture ***

*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares.

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