#Gold #SP500
Judging by the media, the world is going to hell, due to a US bank failing. Markets across Europe appear to be taking Daily Mail headlines as “gospel” whereas in the US, where Silicon Valley Bank hails from, the markets appeared fairly relaxed and enjoyed a pretty typical Monday. HSBC even took the time to buy SVB Europe for a whole pound!
The burning question now, did we just see the first warning for severe turbulence ahead on the markets?
We’re not sure, is the inevitable answer, but suspect the response should be No.
On Monday, Wall St needed close below 31,760 points to enter a cycle which calculates with the potential of a further 1,000 point drop, perhaps even 2,000 points. Instead, some fancy manoeuvres in the closing stages of the day saw the index close the session at 31,819 points, still a resident of what passes for safety on the market and down by -0.28%. Around 7.30pm UK time, it was almost like a grown up had noticed what we about to happen and yanked a metaphorical handbrake. This behaviour makes us suspect Armageddon may not yet be waiting, especially as the FTSE managed reversal of -2.6% on the day.
And then, there is the S&P 500.
Similar to the DOW, the market for the S&P didn’t close Monday in dreadful territory, finishing the day ‘only’ down by 0.15%. It didn’t even achieve the accolade of a lower low, yet the German Dax successfully trashed itself by 3% for Monday. If we remain expectant of the worst yet to come, it is certainly the case should the S&P 500 wander below 3,855 points, reversal to an initial 3,746 is probable with secondary, if broken, at a dangerous 3,585 points. The use of the word dangerous is allowed, due to the index breaking below the uptrend since the 2020 pandemic low, finding itself exploring a zone where 2,686 calculates as providing an eventual bottom potential.
For a chance of surprise gains, the S&P needs resurrect itself above 3,967 points, hopefully capable of triggering movement to 4,060 with secondary, if beaten, at 4,228 points. This secondary is quite a big deal, restoring the index to Big Picture territory and a probable cycle uphill to 4,725 eventually.
And finally, there is the Bitcoin.
Monday was strange for the crypto, price movements proving a little ridiculous as we were being forced to regard the currency as ‘defensive’, irrational surges upward in a similar manner to that which happens with Gold, when the index’ are enjoying a grotty day. Quite how anyone could regard the value of Bitcoin or Gold as defensive, when share prices are going a little mad, should call into question the sanity of who’s making the statement. Around the world, there are still plenty of people ‘walking funny’ due to Bitcoin variations, making us question what will happen with Bitcoin if it is decided the 2nd largest banking collapse in US history is a little blot on the landscape, just capitalism doing its thing, to paraphrase the US president.
Certainly, if Bitcoin manages to stumble below 22,450 USD, it could now very easily tumble down to 17,498 with secondary, if broken, at 15,000 USD and hopefully a bounce.
We’re failing to yield to the temptation of optimism from Mondays movements as the phony currency needed close the session above 24,600 to achieve a realistic ‘higher high’. In such a scenario, we’d be forced to concede an initial target of 27,080 with secondary, if bettered, at 28,030 points. These numbers could prove transformative for the crypto, ticking the first of a series of boxes which allow an eventual visit to 46,900 USD and some hesitation.
For now, it feels like the world shall come to terms with the SVB collapse and we’d warn Bitcoin may face a bit of a thumping, due to this.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:25:16PM | BRENT | 80.51 | 80.45 | Success | |||||||
| 9:29:04PM | GOLD | 1914.07 | 1866 | 1849 | 1827 | 1889 | 1915 | 1933 | 1936 | 1881 | Success |
| 9:31:19PM | FTSE | 7548.6 | Success | ||||||||
| 9:34:16PM | STOX50 | 4096.9 | Success | ||||||||
| 9:36:53PM | GERMANY | 14967 | Success | ||||||||
| 9:39:07PM | US500 | 3862.1 | 3807 | 3795 | 3747 | 3857 | 3906 | 3939 | 3983 | 3853 | ‘cess |
| 10:02:46PM | DOW | 31898 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:05:45PM | NASDAQ | 11941.07 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:08:05PM | JAPAN | 27458 | Success |
13/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7548 points. Change of -2.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,798,482,438 a change of 25.79%
10/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7748 points. Change of -1.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,994,694,563 a change of 6.35%
9/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7879 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,576,891,587 a change of 1.82%
8/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7929 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,459,565,037 a change of 19.23%
7/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7919 points. Change of -0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,417,813,576 a change of -3.92%
6/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7929 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,638,585,361 a change of -4.78%
3/03/2023 FTSE Closed at 7947 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,921,700,262 a change of -13.69%
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AML Aston Martin** **LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:AV. Aviva** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:CCL Carnival** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:ITRK Intertek** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc** **LSE:RBD Reabold Resources PLC** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust** **
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Updated charts published on : Aston Martin, Asos, Aviva, Barclays, Carnival, Genel, Gulf Keystone, Glencore Xstra, British Airways, IQE, Intertek, Natwest, Ocado Plc, Reabold Resources PLC, Rockhopper, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust,
LSE:AML Aston Martin Close Mid-Price: 245.2 Percentage Change: -0.20% Day High: 258 Day Low: 238.2
If Aston Martin experiences continued weakness below 238.2, it will invar ……..
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View Previous Aston Martin & Big Picture ***
LSE:ASC Asos Close Mid-Price: 822.5 Percentage Change: -0.96% Day High: 850 Day Low: 793
Weakness on Asos below 793 will invariably lead to 782 with secondary (if ……..
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View Previous Asos & Big Picture ***
LSE:AV. Aviva Close Mid-Price: 424.3 Percentage Change: -5.65% Day High: 451.1 Day Low: 425.5
Continued weakness against AV. taking the price below 425.5 calculates as ……..
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View Previous Aviva & Big Picture ***
LSE:BARC Barclays Close Mid-Price: 147.48 Percentage Change: -6.31% Day High: 157.54 Day Low: 146.06
Target met. If Barclays experiences continued weakness below 146.06, it w ……..
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View Previous Barclays & Big Picture ***
LSE:CCL Carnival Close Mid-Price: 687.2 Percentage Change: -7.68% Day High: 743.6 Day Low: 677.8
Continued weakness against CCL taking the price below 677.8 calculates as ……..
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View Previous Carnival & Big Picture ***
LSE:GENL Genel Close Mid-Price: 121.8 Percentage Change: -1.93% Day High: 124.6 Day Low: 120
Target met. In the event Genel experiences weakness below 120 it calculat ……..
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View Previous Genel & Big Picture ***
LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone Close Mid-Price: 182.6 Percentage Change: -4.70% Day High: 192 Day Low: 181.8
In the event Gulf Keystone experiences weakness below 181.8 it calculates ……..
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View Previous Gulf Keystone & Big Picture ***
LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra Close Mid-Price: 458.7 Percentage Change: -3.02% Day High: 478.25 Day Low: 450.9
If Glencore Xstra experiences continued weakness below 450.9, it will inv ……..
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View Previous Glencore Xstra & Big Picture ***
LSE:IAG British Airways Close Mid-Price: 142.62 Percentage Change: -3.80% Day High: 148.72 Day Low: 139.94
Target met. Continued weakness against IAG taking the price below 139.94 ……..
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View Previous British Airways & Big Picture ***
LSE:IQE IQE Close Mid-Price: 26.05 Percentage Change: -6.46% Day High: 27.95 Day Low: 25.75
In the event IQE experiences weakness below 25.75 it calculates with a dr ……..
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View Previous IQE & Big Picture ***
LSE:ITRK Intertek Close Mid-Price: 4026 Percentage Change: -2.52% Day High: 4138 Day Low: 4044
In the event Intertek experiences weakness below 4044 it calculates with ……..
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View Previous Intertek & Big Picture ***
LSE:NWG Natwest Close Mid-Price: 272.2 Percentage Change: -4.83% Day High: 288.1 Day Low: 269.6
Target met. If Natwest experiences continued weakness below 269.6, it wil ……..
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View Previous Natwest & Big Picture ***
LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc Close Mid-Price: 423.8 Percentage Change: -6.05% Day High: 463.5 Day Low: 420.5
Target met. Continued weakness against OCDO taking the price below 420.5 ……..
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View Previous Ocado Plc & Big Picture ***
LSE:RBD Reabold Resources PLC Close Mid-Price: 0.19 Percentage Change: -6.10% Day High: 0.2 Day Low: 0.19
Weakness on Reabold Resources PLC below 0.19 will invariably lead to 17p ……..
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View Previous Reabold Resources PLC & Big Picture ***
LSE:RKH Rockhopper Close Mid-Price: 11.43 Percentage Change: -3.18% Day High: 13.1 Day Low: 11.6
Target met. In the event of Rockhopper enjoying further trades beyond 13. ……..
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View Previous Rockhopper & Big Picture ***
LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust Close Mid-Price: 674.6 Percentage Change: -0.53% Day High: 683.6 Day Low: 658
In the event Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust experiences weakness belo ……..
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View Previous Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust & Big Picture ***