Nasdaq and Wall Street (NASDAQi:NDX & DOWi:DJI), a tale of two index

#FTSE #Nasdaq

Perception can be a strange thing. After falling on wet decking, a visit to A&E seemed wise, a visit which, if the media were believed would be a nightmare of epic proportions. Obviously NHS Scotland is different but, 60 minutes later and advised not to drive for 24 hours, I was sent home with a little pat on the head. (Not kidding!) Concussion seems unlikely.

Sometimes, a little extra work is required, taking a “belt & braces” approach to a subject and currently, the US Nasdaq market is providing a quite amazing masterclass in chart behaviour. Recently, we’ve written at length on how important it can be, when a price or value exceeds the level of a previous trend break.

The Nasdaq, presently trading around 11,500, managed this feat back in October but essentially has failed to launch. This is rather odd, given Wall St has been enjoying its own little party and looks capable of continuing the festivities. For the Nasdaq, the trend break level was identical to the current value of the index, so perhaps we’re witnessing the phenomena of “backtesting” (we’re not, the idea is a fallacy). Instead, there’s something rather strange going on, the reasons for which defeat us but, also serve to present an opportunity for a future Long position.

The chart below has a couple of extracts, giving Nasdaq price movements since September. For reasons known only to the gods of the market, the Nasdaq has not yet closed above the prior Red trend, instead carefully assigned a place mumbling along just below the Red trend line. This sort of behaviour, while defying logic, comes with a pretty confident promise.

Should the Nasdaq opt to close a session above Red, it’s almost certainly intending to head up. At present, this implies a requirement for the index to close above 11,870 points as a cycle to 12,734 points shall hopefully commence. Any stop loss can usually be extremely tight in this circumstance, so it’s perhaps worth keeping an eye on.

 

As usual, we can present a converse scenario, one which isn’t particularly exciting as it suggests weakness below 11,600 threatens reversal to 11,237 with secondary, if broken, at 10,986 and ideally a bounce. The index needs below 10,600 to allude the need for running shoes.

Wall Street Above, we mentioned it being party time for Wall St. Some of the numbers are truly impressive as we’re not used to presenting scenario with 1,000+ point jump potentials.

Currently, above 34,387 calculates as capable of a lift to 35,000 next with our secondary, if exceeded, working out at 36,145 points. This ambition almost matches the highs experienced by Wall St at the start of this year and should the US primary market want to send a message of “everything is rosy”, we can now calculate a third level ambition at an eventual 37,100 points and a new all time high.

If things intend going wrong for the DOW, closure below 33,300 will serve to give early warning as this risks triggering reversal to an initial 32,667 points with secondary, if broken, at 32,045 points and hopefully a bounce.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
9:05:37PM FTSE 7538 7487 7479 7458 7515 7542 7553 7572 7500 Success
9:07:39PM BRENT 84.62 Success
9:10:00PM GOLD 1748.96 ‘cess
9:11:53PM STOX50 3949 ‘cess
9:14:33PM GERMANY 14409
9:28:26PM US500 3954.72
9:31:12PM DOW 33846
9:33:08PM NASDAQ 11494 11442 11374 11194 11579 11682 11769 11878 11608 ‘cess
9:35:41PM JAPAN 27979 ‘cess

 

29/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7512 points. Change of 0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,887,947,739 a change of 42.84%
28/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7474 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,947,461 a change of -6.58%
25/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7486 points. Change of 0.27%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,412,047,721 a change of 36.26%
24/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of 0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,237,992,179 a change of -28.67%
23/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7465 points. Change of 0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,539,480,951 a change of 32.52%
22/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of 1.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,425,428,256 a change of -30.51%
21/11/2022 FTSE Closed at 7376 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,929,378,651 a change of -6.71%

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…

Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares

Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AVCT Avacta** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:CBX Cellular Goods** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:TERN Tern Plc** **

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Updated charts published on : Avacta, Barclays, Cellular Goods, Diageo, Glencore Xstra, Natwest, Standard Chartered, Tern Plc,

LSE:AVCT Avacta Close Mid-Price: 116.9 Percentage Change: -2.58% Day High: 125 Day Low: 116.5

In the event of Avacta enjoying further trades beyond 125, the share shou ……..

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LSE:BARC Barclays. Close Mid-Price: 161 Percentage Change: + 1.78% Day High: 161.78 Day Low: 157.28

In the event of Barclays enjoying further trades beyond 161.78, the share ……..

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LSE:CBX Cellular Goods Close Mid-Price: 1.35 Percentage Change: -1.82% Day High: 1.38 Day Low: 1.32

Target met. Continued weakness against CBX taking the price below 1.32 ca ……..

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LSE:DGE Diageo Close Mid-Price: 3768 Percentage Change: -0.48% Day High: 3812.5 Day Low: 3763.5

Continued trades against DGE with a mid-price ABOVE 3812.5 should improve ……..

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LSE:GLEN Glencore Xstra. Close Mid-Price: 550.8 Percentage Change: + 2.32% Day High: 552.4 Day Low: 539.1

In the event of Glencore Xstra enjoying further trades beyond 552.4, the ……..

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LSE:NWG Natwest. Close Mid-Price: 260.5 Percentage Change: + 2.32% Day High: 261.4 Day Low: 254.2

Target met. All Natwest needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 261.4 to improve ……..

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LSE:STAN Standard Chartered. Close Mid-Price: 609 Percentage Change: + 5.04% Day High: 609 Day Low: 580.6

Continued trades against STAN with a mid-price ABOVE 609 should improve t ……..

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LSE:TERN Tern Plc. Close Mid-Price: 10.75 Percentage Change: + 4.88% Day High: 11.25 Day Low: 10.25

Further movement against Tern Plc ABOVE 11.25 should improve acceleration ……..

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*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares.

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