#FTSE #GOLD
There are lots of instances of “Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should”. Personally, reaching a new level of idiocy didn’t surprise my immediate family. A few months ago, I’d a great idea to build a zero budget rock tumbler, using the guts on an old microwave. The device has proven a success with only on little problem.
At no point, had a shortage of polished rocks been identified in my life.
Now, after several months of listening to the machine grinding away in the shed, a little treasure trove of polished quartz, jet, and varied funny looking stones now fill a large jar in the shed and I’ve no idea what to do with them. Grand-daughters are not interested, wife is especially not interested, and daughter thinks I got carried away with a “proof of concept good idea”. She’s right, the plate turning part of a microwave can indeed be butchered to create the core of a Rock Tumbler. But unless you’ve ever had a craving for shiny little rocks, why bother?
Obviously, for foregoing has quite a lot to do with the stock market. A “just because you can, doesn’t mean you should” moment.
Circled on the chart below, a movement the FTSE made a few weeks ago, where during the session the index explored life below the Red uptrend since 2020. But importantly, the session closed without the value of the index below Red. As mentioned previously, we regard this sort of thing as a warning for impending trouble and in the case of the FTSE, rather than rushing out an opening a blind short position, it’s perhaps worth considering thinking about things.
From a sanity perspective, we’d be inclined to take the reversal seriously, ONLY if the value of the FTSE manages below that achieved on the day of the trend break. This implies a demand the FTSE fall below 7007 as this risks triggering reversal to an initial modest 6966 points. If broken, our secondary (and expected bouncy bottom) calculates down at 6720 points. If triggered, the tightest stop in this scenario works out at an attractive 7065 points.
More likely, from a near term perspective, it looks like movement next above 7275 points should attempt 7327 points, challenging the immediate Blue downtrend since the start of June. Our secondary, should 7327 be exceeded, is quite amazing, calculating 99 points higher at 7426 points. This secondary is quite a big deal, placing the index in a zone where a longer term attempt at 7683 looks possible, matching the market highs for 2022.
Currently, there are plenty of arguments favouring market reversals expect, perhaps, the most important one. The market isn’t reversing!
Some Gold Thoughts (PM:XAUUSD) The value of Gold experienced a movement on Thursday 21st July, the sort of thing we tend associate with the Silver market – which we refuse to cover due to suspected manipulation making it dangerous to trade.
For Gold, there was an obvious drop trigger level at 1682 points, the market sleepily wandering a couple of dollars below the trigger before someone noticed. It’s not difficult to imagine someone shouting across the office, “Get Gold Back Up!” as within minutes, the price of Gold rose by $10, back to the level it started the session and pausing briefly at $1692 dollars.
After tentatively asking, “Is that enough?”, someone shouted “Go Higher, it’ll make it harder to fall” and within minutes, a further $20 was poured onto the value of Gold, completely at odds with any conventional movement logic.
The events proved especially irritating, due to us receiving a flurry of emails during the morning session, asking us for a Big Picture review of Gold, due to the price looking especially weak. This set the scene for horror, the market going crackers in real time while we worked, utterly spoiling every immediate scenario. It truly was not difficult to imagine a moment of panic, when the market realised what could potentially occur with the Gold price.
What could occur?
We had a scenario where below $1682 allowed a modest reversal to $1677. The big problem occurred, should $1677 break as the gold price would enter a zone, now calculating with an eventual bottom at $1548, a massive drop. Should our suspicion be correct, this was the reason for the panic recovery, the market unwilling to have the price of gold steal all the headlines for Friday.
We’re not convinced the danger has passed, Gold currently needing above $1790 to move into a place of safety.
Near term, above 1723 calculates with the potential of a gain to 1747 with secondary, if exceeded, an eventual 1808 dollars. We’re not convinced.
Have a good ‘le week-end’ and enjoy the French Grand Prix, sometimes one of the better races.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:55:53PM | BRENT | 100.7 | 98.23 | 97.58 | 101.51 | 101.5 | 101.98 | 100.28 | ‘cess | ||
| 9:57:31PM | GOLD | 1720.16 | 1685 | 1679 | 1694 | 1721 | 1729.5 | 1709 | Shambles | ||
| 9:59:33PM | FTSE | 7277.67 | 7249 | 7232 | 7273 | 7303 | 7335 | 7254 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:01:08PM | STOX50 | 3593 | 3542 | 3522 | 3572 | 3616 | 3628 | 3580 | |||
| 10:03:04PM | GERMANY | 13221 | 13099 | 12961 | 13272 | 13369 | 13390 | 13236 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:06:00PM | US500 | 3989 | 3918 | 3887 | 3968 | 4001 | 4045 | 3944 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:32:17PM | DOW | 32013 | 31517 | 31428 | 31850 | 32055 | 32186 | 31829 | Shambles | ||
| 10:36:19PM | NASDAQ | 12534 | 12345 | 12286 | 12477 | 12695 | 12633 | 12515 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:39:12PM | JAPAN | 27859 | 27709 | 27563 | 27781 | 27897 | 27999 | 27727 | Success |
21/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7270 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,442,605,910 a change of -14.07%
20/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7264 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,333,828,189 a change of 35.6%
19/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7296 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,670,793,885 a change of -13.24%
18/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7223 points. Change of 0.89%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,383,848,988 a change of -4.09%
15/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7159 points. Change of 1.7%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,613,237,251 a change of -3.92%
14/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7039 points. Change of -1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,842,341,415 a change of 1.71%
13/07/2022 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -0.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,744,207,139 a change of 25.49%
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:DARK Darktrace Plc** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:SPX Spirax** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **LSE:ZOO Zoo Digital** **
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Updated charts published on : Asos, Darktrace Plc, MAN, Experian, IG Group, Spirax, Taylor Wimpey, Zoo Digital,
LSE:ASC Asos. Close Mid-Price: 1123 Percentage Change: + 2.46% Day High: 1153 Day Low: 1078
Target Met. In the event of Asos enjoying further trades beyond 1153, the ……..
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View Previous Asos & Big Picture ***
LSE:DARK Darktrace Plc. Close Mid-Price: 369.5 Percentage Change: + 0.14% Day High: 380 Day Low: 368.6
All Darktrace Plc needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 380 to improve acceler ……..
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View Previous Darktrace Plc & Big Picture ***
LSE:EMG MAN. Close Mid-Price: 274.9 Percentage Change: + 2.35% Day High: 276 Day Low: 266.9
Further movement against MAN ABOVE 276 should improve acceleration toward ……..
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View Previous MAN & Big Picture ***
LSE:EXPN Experian. Close Mid-Price: 2835 Percentage Change: + 2.75% Day High: 2858 Day Low: 2775
In the event of Experian enjoying further trades beyond 2858, the share s ……..
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View Previous Experian & Big Picture ***
LSE:IGG IG Group. Close Mid-Price: 783 Percentage Change: + 10.05% Day High: 790 Day Low: 714
All IG Group needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 790 to improve acceleration ……..
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View Previous IG Group & Big Picture ***
LSE:SPX Spirax. Close Mid-Price: 11330 Percentage Change: + 3.99% Day High: 11345 Day Low: 10935
Continued trades against SPX with a mid-price ABOVE 11345 should improve ……..
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View Previous Spirax & Big Picture ***
LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey. Close Mid-Price: 125.9 Percentage Change: + 2.99% Day High: 126.1 Day Low: 122.35
Further movement against Taylor Wimpey ABOVE 126.1 should improve acceler ……..
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View Previous Taylor Wimpey & Big Picture ***
LSE:ZOO Zoo Digital. Close Mid-Price: 123 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 124 Day Low: 123
In the event of Zoo Digital enjoying further trades beyond 124, the share ……..
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View Previous Zoo Digital & Big Picture ***