#FTSE #GOLD We last reviewed #Gold on 22nd April (link) at 1702 dollars, casually mentioning 1909 dollars as a potential “top”. At time of writing, Gold futures achieved 1900 dollars and we’re starting to wonder if the metal shall melt or go higher? We’ve some pretty firm reasons to expect hesitation around the 1900 dollar level but, hopefully sensibly, decided to try a “what if” scenario should 1909 dollars be exceeded.
In the event of 1909 being left in the dust, further movement to an initial 1923 dollars is now expected with secondary, if bettered, calculating at a new top of 2055 dollars. To be blunt, should such a level appear, the market almost must experience some reversals, if only to gather sufficient oomph for further climbs in the future.
However, the visuals give ample reason to anticipate some reversals anytime now. Many folk trading Gold will notice the prior All Time High back in September 2011 when the price achieved 1919 dollars. This alone will introduce selling pressure as most chart packages will easily produce a 10 year picture, warning a prior high is doubtless making its presence felt.
In addition, there’s the Bloomberg Pundit effect where a bunch of market analysts are queuing up to predict the US markets are about to drop and thus, the only safe thing to do is buy Gold. Over the years, we’ve learned to distrust these folks opinions, usually expecting the exact opposite of what someone is being paid to say. Perhaps this has been the reason for the immediate surge in Gold prices but visually, there’s ample reason to expect some Gold volatility around the 1900 dollar level. The perceived “connect” between Gold prices and stock market index movements has long been the source of losses for traders.
Reversals in Gold now below 1862 should produce some early warning for trouble, allowing reversals to an initial 1843 with secondary, if broken, at a surprising 1797 dollars. Should 1797 make an appearance, we’d hope for a proper rebound as the implications below are unpleasant at around 1700 dollars.
FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) As Boris Johnston undertook what some in the media were calling his “Farewell Tour of Scotland” with photo and media opportunities on one of the least populated areas (Orkney), it seemed only fitting for the FTSE to experience slight hysterics. To be fair, the reversals seemed pretty under control and it looks like the index itself needs break below 6,200 to become a little bit troublesome. Such an event risks triggering reversal to an unimpressive 6,169 points with secondary, if broken, calculating down at 6,130 points. The market closed Thursday at 6,211 points.
If triggered, the tightest stop appears to be 6,250 points but we suspect, if the movement triggers, falls are liable to be fairly sharp. As the Red line suggests, some sort of rebound should be expected if 6,130 makes an appearance.
What happens if the FTSE makes it above 6,250 and the immediate Blue downtrend?
Above 6,250 should prove capable of some recovery to an initial 6,288 points with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a more impressive and confident 6,298 points.
As always, please remember we are discussing the FTSE and NOT after hours futures.
Have a good weekend.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:16:17PM | BRENT | 43.64 | 43.4 | 43.245 | 44.05 | 44.65 | 45.125 | 43.85 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:18:19PM | GOLD | 1888 | 1870 | 1866 | 1890 | 1899 | 1909 | 1888 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:22:35PM | FTSE | 6173.56 | 6161 | 6133.5 | 6195 | 6179 | 6237 | 6150 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:32:16PM | FRANCE | 4991.2 | 4976 | 4959 | 5038 | 5047 | 5069 | 5015 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:39:43PM | GERMANY | 13006.54 | 12950 | 12905 | 13008 | 13044 | 13080.5 | 12968 | Shambles | ||
| 10:42:22PM | US500 | 3238 | 3222 | 3204.5 | 3242 | 3268 | 3276 | 3252 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:49:53PM | DOW | 26641 | 26545 | 26483 | 26655 | 26700 | 26766.5 | 26590 | Success | ||
| 10:52:52PM | NASDAQ | 10581 | 10530 | 10451 | 10624 | 10655 | 10711.5 | 10584 | Success | ||
| 10:55:28PM | JAPAN | 22549 | 22474 | 22438 | 22572 | 22620 | 22657.5 | 22505 | Success |
