Natwest Group PLC for 27/07/2020

#Brent #DAX When we commented on the pending name change back in February (link), RBS were trading at 206 and we speculated on a bottom potential at 114p. At the time, we couldn’t calculate below such a foul level but with a new name comes new potentials.

Unfortunately, these potentials stink!

Natwest share price presently needs exceed 135.698p or so to better the immediate Blue downtrend shown on the chart. Apparently such a miracle should provide early warning of price recovery toward an initial 168p with secondary, if exceeded, a more encouraging sounding 180p. We’re less than convinced about its prospects, thanks to the Big Picture against RBS pointing at a “maximum bottom” of 114p.

The implication with the share price spending so much time below 114p since March is obviously one of concern.


In the week since the official name change, Natwest shares have now described ‘lower lows’ and it’s creating the situation where weakness below 105p risks reversal to an initial 94p, matching the banking crash low of 2009 (okay, it was 9.8p but the 10x consolidation hides this fact). Below 94p now gets seriously frightening as our secondary works out at an ultimate bottom of 50p. We can no longer calculate anything below such a level.

The truly frightening aspect to this scenario is it’s not restricted to Natwest. A glance at the banking sector index, the famous NMX8350, also suggests some further trauma is in store for the UK retail banks. Presently, the sector index is at 2,207 points and we’d previously calculated 2,460 points as the ideal bounce level. Obviously, it hasn’t bounced and is spending its time below “bottom”.

Hey, chart goes here


Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
5:36:38PM BRENT 43.7 43.3 42.945 42.25 43.9 44.99 45.695 47.69 43.8 ‘cess
5:39:07PM GOLD 1902.06
5:42:27PM FTSE 6109.36 ‘cess
5:45:02PM FRANCE 4950.5 Success
5:48:07PM GERMANY 12816 12795 12748 12558 12888 12972 13020 13103 12827 Success
5:50:38PM US500 3211.9 ‘cess
5:56:21PM DOW 26440 ‘cess
5:58:25PM NASDAQ 10478 ‘cess
6:00:19PM JAPAN 22332 Success

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%
23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%
22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%
21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%
20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%
17/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6290 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,456,693,938 a change of 6.54%
16/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6250 points. Change of -0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,183,257,766 a change of -22.26%

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