#Brent #Germany Marriage is about finding new ways to casually annoy your partner. After a morning rush, markets scanned, dogs walked, showers all round, we were on the ferry to the mainland when my phone bleeped, reminding my Thursday appointment was actually in 7 days time. How she laughed, then turned her irritation into a shopping trip. For ladies boots, probably the definition of hell to witness!
Lloyds share, alas, has been displaying its very own idea of what hell is, the price breaking above its downtrend since 2009 in December only to break below the trend again at the start of this year. When we last ran the numbers against Lloyds (link), we’d proposed a scenario with weakness possible from 62p down to 58p. Unfortunately, on January 15th when it first troubled this target level, it also broke the target briefly. The means we need explore further drop possibilities if Lloyds intends drag investors around the shoe shops.
By any standards, Lloyds has gotten dodgy and weakness now below 57p suggests the possibility of travel further downhill to an initial 51p. If broken, secondary is at 48p and we’d hope for a panic bounce, if this level actually makes an appearance.
Our reasoning behind the “panic” hope comes from the lows of last year. If Lloyds actually were to break below 48p, it enters a land more painful then a shoe shop with an open plan section selling scented candles. In plain English, 33p becomes best hope but we’d really need review the tea leaves if 48p were to now break.
However (and this is a biggie) we were fascinated at the respect paid to the downtrend since 2009. It became clear, very clear, this is an important level to the market place. This being the case, something worth considering is what happens (usually) when a long term downtrend is rejoined, following a break. Invariably, a share price will rise strongly, essentially going everywhere it should have gone in the first place.
In the case of Lloyds, the implication is of movement now above 62.6p should have an ambition of an initial 68p with secondary, if bettered, at 74p. In fact, if earthshaking news is involved, the price could simply accelerate to 85p.
And the best of all?
If opening a Long position, any stop loss should be as tight as possible. This sort of movement tends be rather fast.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
6:00:12PM |
BRENT |
60.05 |
59.61 |
59.16 |
58.64 |
60.63 |
61.85 |
62.145 |
62.99 |
61 |
Shambles |
|
6:04:30PM |
GOLD |
1572.39 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
6:11:58PM |
FTSE |
7549.06 |
Success | ||||||||
|
6:13:47PM |
FRANCE |
5996 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
6:26:32PM |
GERMANY |
13507 |
13474 |
13418 |
13355 |
13563 |
13607 |
13625.75 |
13661 |
13535 |
Success |
|
6:29:27PM |
US500 |
3291.42 |
Success | ||||||||
|
7:26:49PM |
DOW |
28954.9 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
7:28:59PM |
NASDAQ |
9128.49 |
Success | ||||||||
|
7:31:40PM |
JAPAN |
23622 |
Shambles |
