#Nasdaq #CAC40 Our last public review of Glencore was back in February this year, when we provided criteria for a 10% share price rise. Despite relative chaos in the world of heavy metal, this ambition was successfully achieved and exceeded. What has happened since is melting our collective brain cell!
At present, the share is trading around the 279 level
and unfortunately, despite beating our prior secondary target with a lunge to
340p, the price has broken the uptrend since the start of 2016 and in doing so,
is painting a series of “lower lows”. From our perspective, the news is quite
grim as trades below 248p (which we suspect shall happen) look capable of
driving reversal down to an initial 228p.
Worse, if such a level breaks, our secondary is a
theoretical “bottom” of 193p. We’re forced to use the term “bottom” quite
loosely, thanks to the visuals tending suggest 132p should be “bottom” for a
real bounce. To achieve such a low, we’d suspect either negative news flow or,
more probably, negative market conditions, shall conspire to provoke 132p making
At present, the share price needs exceed 300p just to
regain the prior trend. In such an event, we calculate an initial price target
of 312p with secondary, if bettered, a pretty comfortable looking 346p.
For now, we fear the worst, suspecting 132p shall prove
#GOLD #US500 Last time we reviewed Ferrari (link here), we speculated on the price reaching 160, along with an argument in favour of the marque proving supreme in Formula One this year. From our perspective, we got the important question right but their World Championship chances look dodgy.
Ferrari share price in New York has achieved an all
time high, exceeding our 160 and now trading at record levels. The next phase of
a “safe” price climb shall come, if it trades beyond 165 dollars. Recent days
brought highs of 163.7, close to our 165 trigger level but still not exceeding
it. Perhaps if Ferrari get a thrashing at their next outing to the British Grand
Prix, we shall see the share soar higher again.
The important thing, if 165 bettered, is we’re showing
the potential of 188 making an appearance, a point at which we’d normally
anticipate some turbulence. If 188 exceeded, the price could easily accelerate
to 193p (okay, both targets are essentially the same) but we really will expect
some reversals – perhaps short term – to take hold at these levels.
Given the share prices form this year, the worst thing
which could happen will be Ferrari starting to win races, just in case the
converse of price growth appears! In such an instance, the share requires CLOSE
a session below RED, presently at 148 dollars. A disaster like this is liable to
promote a visit to 140 with little chance of a successful complaint to the
stewards. A larger, more painful, issue arises if 140 breaks as “bottom” should
prove to be 121 dollars.
Unusually, we’ve painted the RED uptrend against
Ferrari’s daily share price closing level. Most of the time, we regard this as
foolish but there’s little doubt the real uptrend is being defined by the the
point at which the share closes each day and NOT the low of the day. This is
quite important but makes us question price moves at the beginning of May.
Often, this sort of trend break serves as early warning, almost like ‘proof’ the
trend is not sacrosanct and can be broken.