July 2019 - Page 4 of 4 - Trends And Targets

#Nasdaq #CAC40 Our last public review of Glencore was back in February this year, when we provided criteria for a 10% share price rise. Despite relative chaos in the world of heavy metal, this ambition was successfully achieved and exceeded. What has happened since is melting our collective brain cell!

At present, the share is trading around the 279 level and unfortunately, despite beating our prior secondary target with a lunge to 340p, the price has broken the uptrend since the start of 2016 and in doing so, is painting a series of “lower lows”. From our perspective, the news is quite grim as trades below 248p (which we suspect shall happen) look capable of driving reversal down to an initial 228p.

Worse, if such a level breaks, our secondary is a theoretical “bottom” of 193p. We’re forced to use the term “bottom” quite loosely, thanks to the visuals tending suggest 132p should be “bottom” for a real bounce. To achieve such a low, we’d suspect either negative news flow or, more probably, negative market conditions, shall conspire to provoke 132p making an appearance.

At present, the share price needs exceed 300p just to regain the prior trend. In such an event, we calculate an initial price target of 312p with secondary, if bettered, a pretty comfortable looking 346p.

For now, we fear the worst, suspecting 132p shall prove irresistible.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:23PM	BRENT	62.69									Success
10:52:12PM	GOLD	1419.19									Success
10:55:04PM	FTSE	7573.98									Success
10:57:14PM	FRANCE	5580	5554	5535.5	5510	5590	5590	5599	5614	5561
10:58:53PM	GERMANY	12559
11:01:28PM	US500	2974.87									‘cess
11:03:39PM	DOW	26801
11:06:34PM	NASDAQ	7814	7735	7703	7665	7798	7820	7834.5	7871	7762	Shambles
11:08:29PM	JAPAN	21693

2/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7559 points. Change of 0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,102,081,659 a change of 7.26%

#GOLD #US500 Last time we reviewed Ferrari (link here), we speculated on the price reaching 160, along with an argument in favour of the marque proving supreme in Formula One this year. From our perspective, we got the important question right but their World Championship chances look dodgy.

Ferrari share price in New York has achieved an all time high, exceeding our 160 and now trading at record levels. The next phase of a “safe” price climb shall come, if it trades beyond 165 dollars. Recent days brought highs of 163.7, close to our 165 trigger level but still not exceeding it. Perhaps if Ferrari get a thrashing at their next outing to the British Grand Prix, we shall see the share soar higher again.

The important thing, if 165 bettered, is we’re showing the potential of 188 making an appearance, a point at which we’d normally anticipate some turbulence. If 188 exceeded, the price could easily accelerate to 193p (okay, both targets are essentially the same) but we really will expect some reversals – perhaps short term – to take hold at these levels.

Given the share prices form this year, the worst thing which could happen will be Ferrari starting to win races, just in case the converse of price growth appears! In such an instance, the share requires CLOSE a session below RED, presently at 148 dollars. A disaster like this is liable to promote a visit to 140 with little chance of a successful complaint to the stewards. A larger, more painful, issue arises if 140 breaks as “bottom” should prove to be 121 dollars.

Unusually, we’ve painted the RED uptrend against Ferrari’s daily share price closing level. Most of the time, we regard this as foolish but there’s little doubt the real uptrend is being defined by the the point at which the share closes each day and NOT the low of the day. This is quite important but makes us question price moves at the beginning of May. Often, this sort of trend break serves as early warning, almost like ‘proof’ the trend is not sacrosanct and can be broken.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:07PM	BRENT	65.16									‘cess
9:57:57PM	GOLD	1384.05	1381	1377.5	1357	1398	1396	1399	1405	1386	Success
10:01:22PM	FTSE	7508									Success
10:05:48PM	FRANCE	5575									Success
10:08:04PM	GERMANY	12541.62									Success
10:10:28PM	US500	2964.62	2951	2946.5	2936	2967	2971	2976.5	3012	2950	Success
10:13:34PM	DOW	26704									Success
10:21:01PM	NASDAQ	7766									Success
10:23:14PM	JAPAN	21699									Success

1/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7497 points. Change of 0.97%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,688,983,351 a change of -13.08%

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Month: July 2019

Glencore for 3/07/2019

2/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7559 points. Change of 0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,102,081,659 a change of 7.26%

Ferrari for 2/07/2019

1/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7497 points. Change of 0.97%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,688,983,351 a change of -13.08%