Sirius Minerals for 1/08/2019

#Nasdaq #Gold Back in June, Sirius finally hit our 13p drop target, something (link here) we’d been moaning about since February! Crucially, it did not really break target (it hit 12.98) and exhibited a half decent bounce. But price moves are proving reminiscent of AIM shares whose price sees controlled by chatroom gossip.

It starts to appear the 17p level shall prove crucial anytime soon for Sirius. In the event the share price manages trade above such a level, recovery to an initial 19.70p calculates as comfortably possible. Our secondary, if such a level bettered, computes at 25.7p and we suspect a rise will falter around such a level. Surprisingly, future recovery beyond this point looks like growth in 10p increments, something which we simply do not understand.

Otherwise, the problem level of 13p remains an issue until such time Sirius manages close a session above 18p. We’d be inclined to take this as a pretty solid movement into safety, even though the price has not exceeded BLUE on the chart.

Below 13p and it still looks like Sirius shall eventually bottom at 4p.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:32:18PM

BRENT

64.29

               

10:34:23PM

GOLD

1414.67

1410.5

1405

1395.34

1428

1434

1441.29

1451

1414

Success

10:36:15PM

FTSE

7571.34

               

Success

10:38:30PM

FRANCE

5506.5

               

‘cess

10:41:50PM

GERMANY

12128

               

‘cess

10:47:25PM

US500

2973.42

               

Success

10:51:32PM

DOW

26826

               

Shambles

10:53:54PM

NASDAQ

7828.99

7769

7734

7634

7908

7908

7959.5

8023

7821

Success

10:57:26PM

JAPAN

21338

               

Success

31/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7586 points. Change of -0.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,192,499,053 a change of 21.96%

Centrica for 31/07/2019

#SP500 #Japan When we last covered this potential disaster (and dodgy chart pattern) in May (link here), nerves were expressed regarding the share price future. A hopeful bottom of 82p had been designated as important, essentially as further drop potentials were really quite messy. In fact, 28p and less were mentioned as further drop targets!

Without a doubt, things have now gotten messy with the loss of their Chief Executive, a large pre-tax loss, and reportedly large numbers of customers unplugging from the company. Thankfully, their CEO was awarded a 44% pay rise in the last year, an award which will doubtless work wonders for staff moral within a company frantically attempting to put a positive spin on a pretty rotten day on the markets.

The situation now is dangerous but we are able to offer a slight glimmer of hope. The immediate situation suggests ongoing weakness below 73p should find its way to 63p next and hopefully, exhibit a bounce. Once again, we advocate extreme caution of 63p breaks as any bounce is liable to be short lived. Instead, there is the potentials for freefall down to a bottom (hopefully) at 28p.

In our opening paragraph, we mentioned a “Dodgy Chart Pattern”, something easily missed as it covers the period since 2003. The chart below shows the price has experienced a painfully clear Double Top from 2003 to 2015. Some people swear by this sort of thing, most people swear at this sort of thing but there is always the risk of Pattern Believers creating a self fulfilling prophecy. In the case of Centrica, it calculates with “Ultimate Bottom” down at 12p. We suspect most folk will be happy to fill up with Centrica shares if it ever actually achieved such a ridiculous number but, in the grand scheme of things, our own potential of 28p is pretty blooming close.

To get out of this mess, Centrica needs exceed 108p at present.



FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:48:50PM

BRENT

64.93

               

Success

9:50:57PM

GOLD

1431.01

               

‘cess

9:52:55PM

FTSE

7650.76

               

9:56:15PM

FRANCE

5499.7

               

Success

10:04:17PM

GERMANY

12130

               

Success

10:05:46PM

US500

3014.07

3000

2996.5

2986

3014

3017

3022.5

3030

3006

Success

10:12:17PM

DOW

27229.8

               

Success

10:19:02PM

NASDAQ

7976

               

Success

10:20:49PM

JAPAN

21509

21476

21457.5

21350

21535

21609

21643

21702

21542

‘cess

30/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7646 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,897,611,362 a change of 3.5%

Qinetic for 30/07/2019

#GOLD #FRANCE If we accept US market experience under Mr Trump as gospel, it appears a look at UK Defence industries may be justified. For this reason, we took a hard look at #Qinetic as their performance over the last 18 months has already been “interesting”.

The immediate situation is fairly straightforward. Price movement now exceeding 307p should prove capable of targeting an initial 319p. Surprisingly, we note we already have three seperate criteria demanding movement to the 319p. Visually, it also makes sense despite the strong potential of a Glass Ceiling forming at such a level. Only with closure above 319p does our secondary calculation at 335p start to make sense, along with a new all time high.

Qinetic share price requires break below 267p to spoil the party, this tending nudge the price in the direction of 214p initially. If broken, secondary is at 187p.

For now, we’d be fairly comfortable with the suggestion 319 intends make a guest appearance fairly soon. As for the longer term, should the company follow the example of several US contractors, apparently we are supposed to believe the really longer term attraction comes from 365p.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:20:19PM

BRENT

63.72

               

10:25:26PM

GOLD

1427.34

1414

1408

1401

1425

1428

1432

1439

1418

‘cess

10:27:39PM

FTSE

7694.28

               

Success

10:29:26PM

FRANCE

5606

5580

5565

5545

5616

5625

5641.5

5673

5578

‘cess

10:30:54PM

GERMANY

12435.53

               

‘cess

10:33:27PM

US500

3022.07

               

10:35:36PM

DOW

27233

               

10:53:28PM

NASDAQ

7992

               

‘cess

10:55:49PM

JAPAN

21636

               

‘cess

 

29/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7686 points. Change of 1.81%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,698,235,425 a change of -1.48%

Aston Martin etc for 29/07/2019

#FTSE #Brent This DNA testing fad looks like creating more trouble than Boris. Over the weekend, surprising news broke about three ‘brand new’ cousins when DNA evidence of late uncle’ activities emerged. Believing “this sort of thing only happened in TV soaps” is now a thing of the past but it makes for delicious gossip!

As for the markets, thus far SAGA has triggered an upward movement, albeit slowly. Lloyds Group on the other hand appears intent on heading to an initial 51.8p, requiring above 58.8p to trash the prospects. And Barclays has done nothing of note, despite their share price appearing more resilient than Lloyds.

Our “FTSE for FRIDAY” proved reliable with the index comfortably moving to our initial 7547 points. Thankfully, the market eventually closed the week above this target level at 7552 points, giving considerable hope for the next few sessions. The situation now suggests moves above 7561 points should bring a visit to an initial 7582 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7617 points. Overall, the market needs break below 7380 points to give early warning it’s all about to go wrong.

Aston Martin Lagonda share price has certainly taken a tumble. Without going into a lot of boring detail, for some time we’d been calculating a bottom around the 4 quid mark. However, recent reversals cause us to revisit this potential and now we’re showing 539p as bottom. We cannot calculate share price closure below such a point. At present, the price requires exceed 861p to regain the trend and give optimism. For now, it’s less 007 and more Oh Oh.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

12:18:37PM

BRENT

63.24

61

59.235

56.46

64.64

63.93

64.26

64.72

63.1

12:20:41PM

GOLD

1419.05

               

12:23:27PM

FTSE

7549.96

               

‘cess

1:24:34PM

FRANCE

5603

               

1:28:18PM

GERMANY

12425

12354

12321.5

12279

12421

12449

12470.5

12529

12391

1:30:12PM

US500

3022.52

               

1:36:09PM

DOW

27165

               

1:38:09PM

NASDAQ

8003.6

               

‘cess

1:40:00PM

JAPAN

21653

               

  

26/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7549 points. Change of 0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,783,845,666 a change of -16.38%

FTSE for 26/07/2019

#FTSE #DOW Probably the only thing more boring than reading an analysis about the markets in this weather, is writing one. There’s something about Scotland which removes ones tolerance to heat as anything above 20 tends be regarded as “too hot”. As for the FTSE, it looks ready to wilt a bit more.

The market closed Thursday at 7500 points, its lunge downward to 7460 a few hours earlier proving pretty much exactly as expected from our lunchtime report. If any miracle bounce is to be judged as genuine, the index needs better 7533 points as this should apparently trigger some further movement to a modest 7547 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7582 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7493 points.

We’re not convinced as to the recovery potentials, instead suspecting below 7460 shall prove capable of reversal to an initial 7400 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7361 points. The tightest stop looks like it’s around 7507 points.

That’s it. Have a good weekend!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:53:22PM

BRENT

63.01

               

9:55:11PM

GOLD

1414.53

               

‘cess

9:58:47PM

FTSE

7473

               

Shambles

10:00:40PM

FRANCE

5566.7

               

Success

10:03:11PM

GERMANY

12352

12296

12219

12091

12427

12445

12459.5

12514

12338

Suc’ambles

10:05:09PM

US500

3005

               

‘cess

10:10:15PM

DOW

27112.5

27048

26982

26852

27225

27365

27488

27631

27185

Success

10:12:47PM

NASDAQ

7968.62

               

Shambles

10:14:35PM

JAPAN

21610

               

‘cess

25/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7489 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,916,977,228 a change of 8.26%

Barclays for 25/07/2019

#SP500 #NK225 It’s funny but Mrs May always struck as the type of person found running a local authority (keen not to rock the boat) but unsuited to run a country. Now, she’s been replaced by someone who used to run a local authority – London. Life is doubtless going to become interesting and we’re starting to wonder if the banks shall benefit.

Barclays share price has cheerfully wandered through the downtrend for the last year, a movement we suspect was not accidental. Quite an interesting situation now presents itself as share price growth above 163p calculates as capable of movement to an initial 175p. If bettered, secondary works out at a surprising 193p!

We’re a little surprised at this behaviour. The drift through the downward trend removed Barclays, quite neatly, from a zone which has been promising a bottom eventually of 134p. Or far worse, if such a level broke. The immediate situation calls for a revamp of our thinking as the share requires closure below 158p to give a pretty firm suggestion some strong growth is not on the cards, anytime soon.

A suspicion exists of the market simply opting to start a new trend, while everyone tries to figure out what the new bloke in the hot seat is going to do next. Of course, the media will have us believe he also doesn’t know from one minute to the next. Hopefully Boris adopts Mr Trumps Twitter habits, entertaining the nation and giving those who seek to be offended plenty to moan about.

For now, some slight optimism exists for Barclays.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:21:02PM

BRENT

63.01

               

Shambles

10:22:38PM

GOLD

1426.55

               

10:29:27PM

FTSE

7513.9

               

Success

10:31:01PM

FRANCE

5630.2

               

10:33:13PM

GERMANY

12563

               

10:35:32PM

US500

3016.72

2996

2993

2984

3010

3019

3022.25

3030

3002

Success

10:38:07PM

DOW

27262

               

10:40:18PM

NASDAQ

7989.77

               

Success

10:47:44PM

JAPAN

21743

21613

21577.5

21514

21699

21768

21788.5

21847

21641

‘cess

24/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7501 points. Change of -0.73%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,389,282,051 a change of 12.21%

Lloyds for 24/07/2019

#FTSE #Nasdaq It’s that time of the month again when we can justify bad temper moods, a typical outcome when reviewing the UK’s retail banks. Lloyds, for instance, experienced a month with a 2p range, doing nothing useful. Similar to the UK’s outgoing Prime Minister and our national Brexit hiatus!

It would be nice to suggest the last month has at least dropped some clues for the shares future behaviour but frankly, it hasn’t. The immediate situation does, thankfully, give a slightly tenuous scenario which could give early warning for some upward travel.

Apparently, above 57.7p should bring movement to a stunning 57.91p. Even by day trade standards, this would be a pretty useless trading plan but the key signal will come if 57.91p is bettered. This will hint at the potential of coming upward travel. Above 57.91p calculates with the potential of 58.8p next. Beyond such a point and we’re showing 62.28p. Yet, this is all pretty useless if we zoom out and view the last 5 years…

The share price presently requires exceed Blue, presently at 64p, to give real hope for genuine price recovery. Nothing from immediate movements gives hope this will prove possible. Instead, the threat remains of weakness below 56p driving Lloyds down to an initial 51.8p. If broken, secondary is a “bottom hopefully” at 46.8p. Our use of the term “bottom hopefully” is careful, given achieving such a drop will bring Lloyds into territory where quite severe reversals are possible with the number 26p being bandied around as an ultimate drop target.

Perhaps our new “representative of real people” shall provide a breath of fresh air in Number 10? After all, across the water Mr Trump hasn’t exactly hurt the marketplace but we’re not holding our breath.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:19:00PM

BRENT

64.19

               

Shambles

10:20:29PM

GOLD

1418.29

               

10:22:02PM

FTSE

7564.5

7533

7512

7483

7578

7579

7604

7623

7546

Success

10:23:31PM

FRANCE

5630

               

Success

10:26:13PM

GERMANY

12528

               

Success

10:35:39PM

US500

3001.39

               

Success

10:38:28PM

DOW

27323

               

Success

10:40:42PM

NASDAQ

7928.02

7913

7886

7858

7949

7970

7977

8034

7929

‘cess

10:42:29PM

JAPAN

21691

               

‘cess

 

23/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7556 points. Change of 0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,694,241,566 a change of 14.91%