Trends And Targets

#DOW #Gold Once again, we spent US Indie day regretting getting out of bed. Market financial volumes hit Xmas week levels with the number of shares pretending to do anything at an absolute minimum. Why does the UK not have a couple of public holidays, dedicated to making folk feel good about themselves and their country? Perhaps this is the cunning plan for Brexit, to create a new Independence Day holiday!

We keep whinging about the media & politicians, many of which indulge in a sport of talking the future down. Unsurprisingly, these appear the same folks who warned of calamity if Mr Trump became US president, remaining gleefully highlighting anything wrong, regardless of what actually happens. Yet in the period since the US elected their disaster, the country appears better than ever with US markets achieving all time highs. It’s easy to speculate such a dreadful fate awaits the UK, once everything is shaken up by Brexit and a new clown is successfully appointed Prime Minister.

All joking aside, someone recently suggested many UK politicians (and European ones too) are utterly dreadful, because they don’t really need do a job, due to the EU indulging in heavy lifting for legislative purposes. This has created a tranche of ‘Z List’ politicians across member states, many of whom should only aspire to be local councillors at best.

The comment certainly gave some pause for thought.

One of the more common questions being asked relates to spotting early signs of proper market reversal. At present, the FTSE requires break RED on the chart, presently at 7170 points, to justify concern as this looks capable of driving the index back to the 6939 level. In itself, not the most tragic state of affairs but should 6939 break, the index risks easily trashing itself down to 6520 and a new low. This would prove a very bad thing.

On the FTSE for FRIDAY, we doubt this state of affairs risks arising anytime soon as above 7622 now looks capable of a near term 7638 points. While pretty useless, secondary at 7676 is certainly more appealing for the days ahead. Or perhaps tomorrow.

The alternate, near term, if of weakness below 7595 driving the index back to 7580 initially. If broken, secondary calculates at 7553, along with the risk of further reversals in the week ahead.

Worse still, if we examine the dire state of the US market under President Trumps domain and extrapolate a similar terrible state of affairs forward, it’s remarkably easy to calculate the UK FTSE as already on course for a long term 8554 points. It needs below the aforementioned RED line to cancel this prospect.

Have a good weekend. At time of writing, it’s 9 days and 14 hours until the British Grand Prix, along with epic traffic jams around the venue.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:17:36PM	BRENT	63.12	62.86	62.37		63.7	63.87	64.165		62.86
10:19:12PM	GOLD	1415.88	1410	1399		1422	1421	1423.5		1411
10:20:44PM	FTSE	7602.22	7596	7587		7613	7623	7646		7596
10:22:34PM	FRANCE	5615.2	5612	5607		5625	5631	5641		5612
10:26:53PM	GERMANY	12635	12618	12598		12642	12660	12676		12622
10:28:55PM	US500	2999.07	2979	2974.5		3000	3000	3002		2983
10:31:55PM	DOW	26996.7	26887	26868.5		26999	27005	27046.5		26914
10:34:53PM	NASDAQ	7875.87	7854	7843.5		7881	7881	7885.5		7862
10:36:29PM	JAPAN	21673	21652	21616.5		21705	21733	21765.5		21652

4/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7603 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,830,628,051 a change of -34.34%

3/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of 0.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,833,923,345 a change of -4.39%

#DOW #GOLD We’d tried to skip RBS in our Retail Bank analysis recently. Essentially it proved difficult to whip up enthusiasm for a months price moves which frankly make the UK PM contest seem exciting and vibrant. However, there are slight signs things with RBS are about to become slightly interesting.

Movements now above 225p indicate the prospect of some recovery in the near future with 234p calculating as an immediate prospect. If this ambition appears, there’s a fairly firm suggestion we’ve spent the last year scanning movements against The Wrong Trend! What alarmed us this week was how the share price opened on Monday. The market opted to gap the price up, suggesting “they” were skipping over a trend. If this proves the case and 234p makes an appearance anytime soon, our secondary, if bettered, calculates at 253p.

We have considerable doubts regarding this and the lower chart gives a fairly straightforward visual excuse. It appears the market is asking us to believe RBS share price was jumped across a downtrend which started in 2008! We’re just a little sceptical about this, if only due to RBS previously triggering what seemed a solid movement down to 202p.

In theory, our 202p target level is now void but on this occasion, our inclination is to distrust software and instead fear the worst. After all, we’ve identified a market strategy when a share price is magically Gapped UP, then Gapped DOWN a few days later. This tends indicate a price is about to be roasted.

For RBS, this will mean weakness below 212 should propel the share down to 202p initially with secondary, if broken, at 177p. In fact, it could easily tumble to 149p eventually with the correct blend of toxic news and market conditions polluted by UK politics.

For now, we shall watch carefully for the price actually closing above 234p as this should make future tumultuous drops difficult.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:15:30PM	BRENT	63.8
10:18:30PM	GOLD	1419.29	1411	1405	1394	1423	1430	1441	1461	1412	‘cess
10:20:42PM	FTSE	7619.98									‘cess
10:22:38PM	FRANCE	5630.7									Success
10:35:46PM	GERMANY	12659									‘cess
10:37:52PM	US500	2997									Success
10:40:27PM	DOW	26982	26820	26766	26692	26950	26990	27028.5	27170	26840	Success
10:42:12PM	NASDAQ	7862									‘cess
10:44:07PM	JAPAN	21713									Success

3/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of 0.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,833,923,345 a change of -4.39%

#Nasdaq #CAC40 Our last public review of Glencore was back in February this year, when we provided criteria for a 10% share price rise. Despite relative chaos in the world of heavy metal, this ambition was successfully achieved and exceeded. What has happened since is melting our collective brain cell!

At present, the share is trading around the 279 level and unfortunately, despite beating our prior secondary target with a lunge to 340p, the price has broken the uptrend since the start of 2016 and in doing so, is painting a series of “lower lows”. From our perspective, the news is quite grim as trades below 248p (which we suspect shall happen) look capable of driving reversal down to an initial 228p.

Worse, if such a level breaks, our secondary is a theoretical “bottom” of 193p. We’re forced to use the term “bottom” quite loosely, thanks to the visuals tending suggest 132p should be “bottom” for a real bounce. To achieve such a low, we’d suspect either negative news flow or, more probably, negative market conditions, shall conspire to provoke 132p making an appearance.

At present, the share price needs exceed 300p just to regain the prior trend. In such an event, we calculate an initial price target of 312p with secondary, if bettered, a pretty comfortable looking 346p.

For now, we fear the worst, suspecting 132p shall prove irresistible.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:50:23PM	BRENT	62.69									Success
10:52:12PM	GOLD	1419.19									Success
10:55:04PM	FTSE	7573.98									Success
10:57:14PM	FRANCE	5580	5554	5535.5	5510	5590	5590	5599	5614	5561
10:58:53PM	GERMANY	12559
11:01:28PM	US500	2974.87									‘cess
11:03:39PM	DOW	26801
11:06:34PM	NASDAQ	7814	7735	7703	7665	7798	7820	7834.5	7871	7762	Shambles
11:08:29PM	JAPAN	21693

2/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7559 points. Change of 0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,102,081,659 a change of 7.26%

#GOLD #US500 Last time we reviewed Ferrari (link here), we speculated on the price reaching 160, along with an argument in favour of the marque proving supreme in Formula One this year. From our perspective, we got the important question right but their World Championship chances look dodgy.

Ferrari share price in New York has achieved an all time high, exceeding our 160 and now trading at record levels. The next phase of a “safe” price climb shall come, if it trades beyond 165 dollars. Recent days brought highs of 163.7, close to our 165 trigger level but still not exceeding it. Perhaps if Ferrari get a thrashing at their next outing to the British Grand Prix, we shall see the share soar higher again.

The important thing, if 165 bettered, is we’re showing the potential of 188 making an appearance, a point at which we’d normally anticipate some turbulence. If 188 exceeded, the price could easily accelerate to 193p (okay, both targets are essentially the same) but we really will expect some reversals – perhaps short term – to take hold at these levels.

Given the share prices form this year, the worst thing which could happen will be Ferrari starting to win races, just in case the converse of price growth appears! In such an instance, the share requires CLOSE a session below RED, presently at 148 dollars. A disaster like this is liable to promote a visit to 140 with little chance of a successful complaint to the stewards. A larger, more painful, issue arises if 140 breaks as “bottom” should prove to be 121 dollars.

Unusually, we’ve painted the RED uptrend against Ferrari’s daily share price closing level. Most of the time, we regard this as foolish but there’s little doubt the real uptrend is being defined by the the point at which the share closes each day and NOT the low of the day. This is quite important but makes us question price moves at the beginning of May. Often, this sort of trend break serves as early warning, almost like ‘proof’ the trend is not sacrosanct and can be broken.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:07PM	BRENT	65.16									‘cess
9:57:57PM	GOLD	1384.05	1381	1377.5	1357	1398	1396	1399	1405	1386	Success
10:01:22PM	FTSE	7508									Success
10:05:48PM	FRANCE	5575									Success
10:08:04PM	GERMANY	12541.62									Success
10:10:28PM	US500	2964.62	2951	2946.5	2936	2967	2971	2976.5	3012	2950	Success
10:13:34PM	DOW	26704									Success
10:21:01PM	NASDAQ	7766									Success
10:23:14PM	JAPAN	21699									Success

 

 

1/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7497 points. Change of 0.97%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,688,983,351 a change of -13.08%

Barclays, Lloyds, Kingfisher and the Movie: Yesterday thoughts. We’re opting to start the week with an update on items reviewed last week and anything else which takes our fancy. Being “dragged” to watch “Yesterday” proved a pleasant surprise, a good film and tempted to go AGAIN! As for the important things, Bitcoin comes first.

To deal with Bitcoin, what happened proved quite fascinating from our nerdy perspective. At 5:30pm on Wed 26th, it achieved our 13,286 dollars. Better still, the phony currency exceeded target on the first surge, hitting 13,292 before sharply falling back to target level. This (thankfully) confirmed we’d been monitoring the correct trend but such was the pace of Bitcoin acceleration that next time it exceeded our target level, the price powered on upward to 13,880. And then, it dropped like a stone, almost feeling like the market “knew” it had gone to high and needed stuffed back under its rock.

The immediate problem is fairly straightforward. At present, it’s trading around the 11k level, needing below 10,200 to enter a cycle down to 9,300 and ideally a proper rebound.

It now requires – according to our criteria anyway – to trade above 12,925 as this calculates as entering a cycle to an initial 13,980 dollars. If bettered, secondary is at 14,550 and a new high since it broke an important downtrend. This sort of thing takes the price firmly into a region where a “long term – or later that day” target of 16,560 looks pretty certain to provoke some hesitation in any further upward surge.

Kingfisher appear to be doing something worthwhile. Our report (link here) mentioned the importance of the price bettering 222p anytime soon as it takes the share into a region with an initial 235p and beyond. From the point at which it closed last week, it should prove worth watching in the days ahead.

Barclays theoretically does not need discussed, the share price continuing to wobble around in a Zombie state. While our report (link here) demands in better 162p to be taken seriously, it will probably be worth watching for trades exceeding 152p in the week ahead, due to an initial 157 looking possible with secondary 160p. While neither is sufficient to remove the share from Big Picture trouble, it will illustrate rather neatly the reality of prices rarely going straight UP or DOWN.

Lloyds assiduously avoided breaking below our 56p trigger level (Report link here) but to be honest, we’ve little confidence in the price. However, Friday’s session commenced with a peculiar price movement, one which apparently calculates with near term movement above the days high of 57.43 being capable of some growth to a pretty tame looking 59.12p. If exceeded, secondary is at 60.3p. As explained with Barclays above, neither target proves sufficient to extract the share price from danger.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:01:42PM	BRENT	64.43	64.02	63.88	63.54	65.55	66.08	66.64	67.51	65.14	‘cess
12:03:32PM	GOLD	1409.9									‘cess
12:05:32PM	FTSE	7450.77									‘cess
12:07:17PM	FRANCE	5531									‘cess
12:09:27PM	GERMANY	12449.37	12314	12267	12206	12409	12450	12470.5	12514	12370	Success
12:11:10PM	US500	2950.17									Success
12:12:40PM	DOW	26654.4
3:11:46PM	NASDAQ	7696.99
3:14:19PM	JAPAN	21375									‘cess

28/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7425 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,545,369,204 a change of 24.51%

27/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7402 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,256,939,146 a change of -12.83%

#Nasdaq #DAX We started this week, proposing a scenario where Bitcoin could soar to 13,286 dollars. The scenario triggered, the phony currency actually achieving 13,800 before hitting a bit of turbulence. Perhaps turbulence is a bit of understatement, given the -20% thrashing it received. In fact, it may fall further.

Continued Bitcoin weakness below 10,330 calculates with the potential of a further 1,000 dollar drop. It “should” bounce by 9,330, especially due to it exceeding our earlier upward target. The implication given is of further strength in the future now calculating with 16,000 dollars and beyond.

Current behaviour highlights one of our great dislikes with Bitcoin. Traditionally, we give primary and secondary targets, our thinking being of turbulence at each target level. In the case of Bitcoin, it often vaguely follows “the rules” but with price swings more reminiscent of AIM shares 10 years ago. When ramping groups would seek to substantially enhance investors expectations, creating a buying frenzy for dodgy AIM companies, invariably this would leave a majority of investors “walking funny”. Thankfully, this is one area where market authorities tend exert some control and Pump & Dumps, while still present, are less frequent. Of course, there’s now Bitcoin available to damage traders wealth as its price swings can defy logic.

As for The FTSE for Friday (It closed Thursday at 7,402), we’ve a ruling expectation of the index heading to 7,328 points and hopefully a bottom. The market needs better 7,437 to escape the immediate downtrend, giving a pretty easy visual level for a stop loss. Anything near term below 7,375 should promote the final downhill drag to target. There is a problem, if 7,328 breaks. We obviously can calculate a secondary and it’s at 7,302 points, a level where a real rebound can be hoped.

Importantly, if we opt to review the upward potentials for the index, the market presently needs better 7,432 points to trigger a near term rise toward 7,464 points. We have some doubts about this, given it would exceed the market downtrend since May 2018! In the unlikely basis this proves correct, our secondary calculates at 7,464 and, rather amazingly, takes the UK market into a longer term region with 7,630 as a major ambition.

Have a good weekend. It’s the Austrian GP, generally quite a good one following the utter boredom supplied by France, yet again. Perhaps F1 management could do race fans a favour, ditching both Monaco and France from the annual event calendar as neither tend deliver an actual race.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:17PM	BRENT	65.55
9:57:38PM	GOLD	1409.64
9:59:42PM	FTSE	7407.6									Shambles
10:02:28PM	FRANCE	5489.7									‘cess
10:05:17PM	GERMANY	12301	12216	12173	12119	12289	12335	12354	12403	12258	‘cess
10:06:46PM	US500	2929.22
10:09:11PM	DOW	26555
10:11:18PM	NASDAQ	7659.25	7620	7598	7534	7690	7690	7719.5	7753	7626
10:13:29PM	JAPAN	21222									‘cess

27/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7402 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,256,939,146 a change of -12.83%

We’re not fond of #Bitcoin but our report on Sunday at http://www.trendsandtargets.com/index.php/2019/06/23/bitcoin-etc-for-24-06-2019/ proved rather prophetic. insert; smug gits image

That was very fast, once again proving we’re not Time Lords!