Trends And Targets

Stagecoach #Brent #Nasdaq An unpleasant incident forced consideration of buses. Living in the sticks in Scotland, personal transport is a must as public transport tends be sporadic. In fact, until today, I literally had never been on a bus. This state of affairs changed, following chiropody of all things!

It all started with two toenails which, for years, required treatment due to their habit of ingrowing. A doctors throwaway comment, “why not get them removed, I’ll make an appointment” was the catalyst, the deed carried out today. A completely painless operation. And something not recommended! Before the operation, the two injections on each toe proved the most painful ever experienced. And yes, this does include a lumbar puncture! But the bigger issue was one of stupidity.

“It will be 24 hours before you can legally drive again…” she said. After explaining I had driven and had no-one available to drive me home, she suggested I get a bus. While in the car park, considering ignoring the legalities of driving, I could see a distant bus threading along the main road, immediately deciding to catch it. Due to the road network, if the vehicle was heading North, it would pass my house.

Once the shock of the ticket cost passed (I’d foolishly assumed a bus was something which would never cost more than a quid for a journey) I resolved to review bus company shares as surely this level of theft must be reflected in their share prices!

Stagecoach are actually looking fairly interesting.

The most important facet of their price is at 94p. There are quite a few arguments which anticipated the price hitting such a level but instead, we suspect it is bouncing from a low of 113p. Perhaps the implication is of some real strength.

This situation now is fairly useful as movement above 141p looks capable of an initial 156p. Our secondary, if such a point is bettered, calculates at a trend testing 164p. When we view recent recovery to move the share price above the long term RED uptrend, there is a hint the market wants it up.

The alternate situation is of weakness below 113p. This allows for reversal to 94p with secondary, if broken, at a ridiculous looking 20p. Only with price closure above BLUE (166p presently) does this threat recede.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:16PM	BRENT	71.83	70	69.405	68.59	71.2	71.85	72.14	73.09	69.97
10:00:12PM	GOLD	1296.65
10:18:47PM	FTSE	7284.95									Success
10:21:18PM	FRANCE	5372.7									‘cess
10:23:37PM	GERMANY	12101.94									‘cess
10:26:32PM	US500	2853.22									Shambles
10:29:23PM	DOW	25667.7
10:31:47PM	NASDAQ	7515.52	7463	7448	7422	7501	7526	7534	7618	7450	Success
10:33:54PM	JAPAN	21182

 

 

15/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7296 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,267,316,415 a change of 5.63%

Vodafone #CAC40 #DOW Last time we reviewed this in November last year, we’d given an upper target of 174p. The price achieved 172p before fallback, definitely ‘close enough’, but perhaps also an early sign of coming weakness. We ALWAYS demand target levels are bettered. Unfortunately for Vodafone, we also gave a flip side to the story.

By warning the price dare not fall below 144p, fate was duly tempted and toward the end of January this year the trigger level was broken. This effectively started a timer for a visit down to an initial 123p, perhaps even 109p if broken. By reaching 125p today (Tues 24 May), it has come sufficiently close to our initial drop level to force an update on the big picture potentials.

So, what awaits below 123p?

In the event 123p breaks, further weakness down to an initial 114p makes sense. If (when) broken, bottom calculates at 109p. In almost any circumstances, we’d expect a proper rebound from the 109p level. The caveat; if further reductions are driven by a ready supply of negative news, there’s a massive risk should 109p break as “ultimate bottom” computes at a visually unlikely 50p! We prefer to think of this as absurd, given it matches a price level last seen in 1996. Amazingly, this price level also marks the start of the ruling RED uptrend, a trend now broken with the share achieving lower lows.

We suspect it shall bounce just before 109p, if any real strength is to make itself known.

For the RED uptrend to confirm its validity, Vodafone requires to close a session above the trend. At present, this demands the price exceed 148p. In doing so, we’d regard the share as heading to an initial 165p. Our secondary, if the initial target level exceeded, calculates at 175p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:32:12PM	BRENT	70.48
10:34:07PM	GOLD	1297.6									‘cess
10:36:19PM	FTSE	7252.75									‘cess
10:38:19PM	FRANCE	5340	5299	5286	5262	5330	5358	5372.5	5415	5288	‘cess
10:40:10PM	GERMANY	11995.93
10:45:45PM	US500	2838.97
10:54:29PM	DOW	25590	25344	25211.5	25051	25536	25693	25763.5	25841	25490	Success
10:55:54PM	NASDAQ	7412.72									‘cess
10:57:41PM	JAPAN	21147

 

14/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7241 points. Change of 1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,933,067,685 a change of 17.45%

#Gold #Nasdaq Last time we reviewed Centrica (link here), we mentioned a possibility of danger if the price moved below 116p. We especially highlighted this issue by drawing a vertical green line at the proposed Brexit date. While Brexit didn’t happen, on March 28th Centrica managed to wander below 116p anyway. “Go figure”, as they say!

An additional worry was our initial 98p drop target. The market, obviously wishing to spare traders the opportunity of worrying about 98p, manipulated (gapped) the share price down to 97.34p on May 9th. This was really not a good thing, tending confirm further weakness below 92p should power reversal to 82p and hopefully a realistic bounce. There are major reasons for concern, should the 82p level break. Quite alarmingly, it’s the sort of nonsense we tend only associate with the Retail Bank sector of the FTSE 100, essentially the prospect of major price drops which dig deep below any level at which the share price can be regarded as cheap.

In a sentence, below 92p now indicates coming reversal to 82p which, if broken, risks a longer term cycle to 28p, perhaps even 12p with negative news. Generally, when the market spots this width of drop potential against a major share, it will quite sharply promote emergency price rescue movements. This is why we tend hope for a real bounce at the 82p level.

To get out of trouble, the share price requires exceed Blue on the chart, 130p at present. Such an unlikely miracle would propel the share into a zone with an initial target of 161p. If bettered, secondary for the longer term is at 188p.

Instead, we suspect it shall be bounced – hopefully just before – from the 82p level and probably meander around with an upward level of around 120p until such time positive news or market conditions are deemed suitable to allow proper growth.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:05:59PM	BRENT	69.53									Success
10:08:19PM	GOLD	1300.26	1281	1274	1265	1292	1301.25	1303.2575	1308.58	1281	‘cess
10:12:04PM	FTSE	7154									Success
10:14:11PM	FRANCE	5263									Success
10:17:00PM	GERMANY	11854									‘cess
10:29:37PM	US500	2807									Success
10:40:47PM	DOW	25299									‘cess
10:43:24PM	NASDAQ	7304	7295	7276	7227	7384	7387	7415	7455	7323	‘cess
10:46:24PM	JAPAN	20805									‘cess

 

13/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7163 points. Change of -0.56%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,051,510,571 a change of -0.97%

UBER #Brent #Dax The media have been frantically inventing numbers in an attempt to make sense of what happened with Uber. It seems, in the USA, conventional wisdom expected the share price to accelerate upward, perhaps even to the 80 dollar mark. Instead, the IP fizzled, closing the day down 7.6%

Traditionally, we dislike IPO’s as often they appear designed to extract funds from the gullible, those folk who believe a share price will always keep heading upward. More usually, once any PR hype fades, the gullible find themselves trapped at the top of a price cycle, watching their money going on what usually is a protracted holiday.

When reviewing price movements during Fridays share launch, a couple of interesting numbers appear to have made themselves known.

Firstly, if the IPO is in real trouble, the share price needs below 38 dollars to justify real panic. Aside from knowing the market wants to drive the price downward, we’d be unable to project any realistic “bottom”. The immediate situation suggests weakness below 41 risks a visit to an initial 39.8 with secondary, if broken, at the critical 38 dollar bottom.

On the plus side, price growth above 45 is liable to promote growth to an initial 46 dollars. If bettered, secondary calculates at 46.7. Unfortunately, the share price requires exceed 48.20 to suggest it’s about to get illogical as we’re completely unable to calculate higher beyond such. In other words, if the market exceeds 48.20, the market intends to UBER somewhere interesting.

For now, it give the excuse to present the most boring chart available!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:07:02PM	BRENT	70.47	68.9	67.99	66.78	70.4	70.96	71.155	71.84	69.83
5:08:53PM	GOLD	1286.13
5:10:35PM	FTSE	7280.98
5:12:10PM	FRANCE	5391									‘cess
5:14:15PM	GERMANY	12201	11963	11905	11804	12122	12210	12246.5	12344	12108
5:16:11PM	US500	2886.17									‘cess
5:19:06PM	DOW	25955.4									Shambles
5:36:05PM	NASDAQ	7600.12									Success
5:38:07PM	JAPAN	21493									‘cess

10/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7203 points. Change of -0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,100,896,801 a change of -16.78%

FTSE #DOW #GOLD We’ve some puzzlement about the price of Gold – and Bitcoin! Conventional wisdom used to suggest, when markets relax, Gold would strengthen. However, weakness since late April has seen the price of Gold essentially flatline. But Bitcoin has reached our target , growing 20%! Is Bitcoin the new Gold?

It’s funny but when searching for images relating to Bitcoin, invariably graphic design people opt to make the fake coin look like a gold coin. And now, when we witness markets such as the DOW, Germany, FTSE, and even Japan relax, it’s against a backdrop of Bitcoin strengthening.

If this is the case, there’s a pretty fair chance something interesting is about to happen.

Our last report against Bitcoin postulated the 6,000 dollar level as pretty important. In the last few weeks, the price has moved from the 5,000 mark to the 6,000 level and our usual logic suggests some hesitation in Bitcoin at this point. At time of writing, it’s at 6,065 and we’d been arguing for 6,034 – close enough! But the big question we’re asking is simple;

If Bitcoin hesitates, will the markets show recovery?

For this (POTENTIALLY DAFT) theory to be correct, we need to see the FTSE exceed 7234 today, Friday. This triggering movement should permit recovery to an initial, utterly unimpressive, 7244 points. Perhaps more useful, our secondary if such a level bettered, calculates at 7272 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is 7192 points – yesterdays low.

As always, we’ve a converse movement scenario.

Below 7192 now allows for 7180 points and hopefully a realistic bounce. There’s a big problem awaiting if 7180 breaks as our next calculation allows for a bottom at 7085 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7244 points.

Have a good weekend. For us, it’s paella time  and the Spanish GP!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:09:15PM	BRENT	70.01
10:11:06PM	GOLD	1284.48	1279	1276.175	1272.19	1287	1289	1297.635	1308.12	1279
10:12:59PM	FTSE	7251.14									‘cess
10:15:51PM	FRANCE	5357.8									‘cess
10:18:38PM	GERMANY	12076.75									‘cess
10:21:04PM	US500	2871.52									Success
10:30:24PM	DOW	25815	25555	25416	25200	25880	25927	26065	26253	25724	Success
10:34:13PM	NASDAQ	7584									Success
10:36:43PM	JAPAN	21310									Success

 

 

9/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7207 points. Change of -0.88%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,129,391,358 a change of -8.32%

#France #Nasdaq We’re not jumping on the Marvels Avengers bandwagon, despite one of their characters being ‘Drax’. A Google search for ‘Drax’ did turn up the bonkers statistic shown below. Just 15 ships produce more pollution than ALL cars, worldwide, but instead, people protest Drax providing wood pellets for fires! As for Drax’ share price…

We last reviewed DRAX in August last year (link here) and pleasingly, it achieved our initial growth target. What happened was quite strange. We’d written a target of 403 in the report, yet the published chart cheerfully gave the target at 423p. Despite both the erroneous 403 AND the correct 423 being attained, our often repeated insistence a share price actually close above a target level was highlighted clearly, when reviewing the Candles vs Closing Price charts. Unfortunately, in this instance, we got it a little wrong as despite the price actually closing 4p above our target level on two occasions, the price has reversed more than we would like.

However, a glance at the bigger picture tends indicate the threat of reversal should not prove too devastating. The immediate situation is of weakness below 322p opening the gates which permit reversal down to 263p. We would anticipate a bounce, should such a level appear. An initial ambition, doubtless a longer term one, calculates at 392p. If bettered – definitely with closure above, our secondary is at 564p eventually.

There’s the risk of a real problem, if the price somehow winds its way below 263p. Our secondary, challenging the long term uptrend, calculates at 236p. In itself, this isn’t great visual problem but unfortunately, 236p making an appearance totally fouls our upward target calculations and risks the share price becoming range-bound for a while.

For now, our suspicion is of this proving worth watching for 263p eventually making an appearance.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:03:08PM	BRENT	70.03
9:06:01PM	GOLD	1280.81									Success
9:09:31PM	FTSE	7287.18									‘cess
9:25:00PM	FRANCE	5415.2	5364	5345	5289	5452	5431	5441	5467	5375
9:26:53PM	GERMANY	12216.87									Success
9:29:24PM	US500	2887.17
9:31:42PM	DOW	26052.4									Shambles
9:34:09PM	NASDAQ	7634.37	7590	7567.5	7530	7670	7687	7711	7758	7605	Shambles
9:37:48PM	JAPAN	21525

8/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7271 points. Change of 0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,685,988,322 a change of -11.16%

#Gold #SP500 The very existence of these complex ‘toast & cheese’ outlets remains a constant puzzle*. So it came as no surprise to see their share price experience a bit of a calamity this year, presumably due to European foodstuffs being off the Brexit menu? Who knows but despite recovery during the session, the 7th May witnessed the market driving the pizza price down.

Domino’s share price opened at 233p, down from a closing price of 260p before the bank holiday weekend. Despite a miracle recovery during the session, we were not entirely convinced as the market had NOT spiked the price down at the open, instead opting to gap (manipulate) the share down by 27p, virtually 10% of its value. Though Domino’s eventually closed the day at 254p, down just 1.46%, we’ve a strong suspicion the market wants Domino’s price to reverse.

The immediate situation suggests traffic below 229 should lead to an initial 213p and a probably short lived bounce. If this target level is broken on the initial surge, our secondary calculates at 182p, hopefully with the chance of a longer term real bounce. Unfortunately, reversal such as this will take the price into a region where negative news could easily drive the price down to 122p.

As the chart highlights, the price has proven rather resilient in its relationship to the longer term RED uptrend. This complex series of movements now means we require the share to exceed 288p to convince it’s breaking trend and heading upward. In such an event, our initial calculation is at 311p with secondary, if bettered, a more useful 341p.

Unfortunately, for now, we suspect it’s going to head to 182p as the next major point of interest.

* As someone who’s gluten intolerant, I cannot eat pizza!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:15PM	BRENT	69.6
10:09:36PM	GOLD	1284.5	1279	1277	1274	1284	1285	1287.5	1291	1278
10:12:39PM	FTSE	7251.03									Success
10:17:02PM	FRANCE	5380									‘cess
10:21:23PM	GERMANY	12081.58									Success
10:23:37PM	US500	2890.97	2861	2850	2839	2890	2895	2904.5	2919	2865	‘cess
10:27:28PM	DOW	26000.9
10:30:50PM	NASDAQ	7660.62									‘cess
10:34:16PM	JAPAN	21665									Success

 

7/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7260 points. Change of -1.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,525,956,733 a change of 41.46%