Vodafone #CAC40 #DOW Last time we reviewed this in November last year, we’d given an upper target of 174p. The price achieved 172p before fallback, definitely ‘close enough’, but perhaps also an early sign of coming weakness. We ALWAYS demand target levels are bettered. Unfortunately for Vodafone, we also gave a flip side to the story.
By warning the price dare not fall below 144p, fate was duly tempted and toward the end of January this year the trigger level was broken. This effectively started a timer for a visit down to an initial 123p, perhaps even 109p if broken. By reaching 125p today (Tues 24 May), it has come sufficiently close to our initial drop level to force an update on the big picture potentials.
So, what awaits below 123p?
In the event 123p breaks, further weakness down to an initial 114p makes sense. If (when) broken, bottom calculates at 109p. In almost any circumstances, we’d expect a proper rebound from the 109p level. The caveat; if further reductions are driven by a ready supply of negative news, there’s a massive risk should 109p break as “ultimate bottom” computes at a visually unlikely 50p! We prefer to think of this as absurd, given it matches a price level last seen in 1996. Amazingly, this price level also marks the start of the ruling RED uptrend, a trend now broken with the share achieving lower lows.
We suspect it shall bounce just before 109p, if any real strength is to make itself known.
For the RED uptrend to confirm its validity, Vodafone requires to close a session above the trend. At present, this demands the price exceed 148p. In doing so, we’d regard the share as heading to an initial 165p. Our secondary, if the initial target level exceeded, calculates at 175p.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:32:12PM |
BRENT |
70.48 | |||||||||
|
10:34:07PM |
GOLD |
1297.6 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
10:36:19PM |
FTSE |
7252.75 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
10:38:19PM |
FRANCE |
5340 |
5299 |
5286 |
5262 |
5330 |
5358 |
5372.5 |
5415 |
5288 |
‘cess |
|
10:40:10PM |
GERMANY |
11995.93 | |||||||||
|
10:45:45PM |
US500 |
2838.97 | |||||||||
|
10:54:29PM |
DOW |
25590 |
25344 |
25211.5 |
25051 |
25536 |
25693 |
25763.5 |
25841 |
25490 |
Success |
|
10:55:54PM |
NASDAQ |
7412.72 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
10:57:41PM |
JAPAN |
21147 |