Trends And Targets

#DAX #SP500 We’re now in that horrible time of year, when some idiot says “how many shopping days left until ….” whereas for traders, it’s “how many market sessions until I stop pulling my hair out!”. While the markets are always mad, this year exhibits a new type of insane, one neatly shown on Thursday 1st August.

Our beef came from market movements once the FTSE closed for the day. We’d given trigger levels for the US markets, all of which managed to be exceeded in the period before 6.30pm. Quite literally, triggers were exceeded briefly by a couple of points, then it felt like someone hit the pause button. News from the USA which proved perfectly capable of trashing the Futures left an unpleasant taste as it almost felt like the markets deliberately exceeded logical trigger levels, thus capturing a bunch of orders prior to a plunge. It begs the question, isn’t this called “entrapment” in legal terms?

It can be assumed we were not amused; writing “shambles” so many times in our Prior Results column was not enjoyable.

This particular article is supposed to be about “The FTSE for Friday” but we’re a little perplexed at what the future holds. At time of writing, FTSE FUTURES are trading around 7490 points whereas the FTSE closed the session at 7581 points.

Will the FTSE, therefore, open nearly a 100 points down?

If there any point in writing “Movement now below 7535 (the opening second spike down on the 1st) looks capable of an initial 7486 points.” After all, FTSE Futures have already reached such a level whereas the FTSE itself has not. The real problem for the FTSE starts, if 7486 breaks as further reversal down to 7323 points looks valid. However, there is a pretty fair chance the market shall experience a short lived bounce around 7425, due to the presence of the prior downtrend.

We suspect the market will probably make its way down to the 7486 level and perhaps bounce a little. If this is the case, movement to an initial 7540 shall make some sense. If exceeded, secondary is at 7558 points. Should this level be bettered (remembering, we are speculating on a FTSE bounce from a level the market has not even dropped to yet!) there is a more than fair chance the drop has been an over-reaction to whatever Mr Trump did.

Curiously, any reach down to 7323 will tend suggest a coming donk against the RED uptrend, one which should generate a reasonable rebound.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:43:34PM	BRENT	61.05									Success
9:46:16PM	GOLD	1444.71									‘cess
9:50:33PM	FTSE	7503.69									Shambles
9:53:27PM	FRANCE	5474.2									‘cess
9:57:51PM	GERMANY	12073.45	12031	11992	11856	12120	12120	12141.5	12178	12058	Shambles
10:01:51PM	US500	2948.62	2944	2938	2908	2985	2977	2993.75	3001	2949	Shambles
10:04:47PM	DOW	26546									Success
10:07:10PM	NASDAQ	7780.62									‘cess
10:14:50PM	JAPAN	21028									‘cess

1/08/2019 FTSE Closed at 7584 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,525,168,165 a change of -9.28%

#Nasdaq #Gold Back in June, Sirius finally hit our 13p drop target, something (link here) we’d been moaning about since February! Crucially, it did not really break target (it hit 12.98) and exhibited a half decent bounce. But price moves are proving reminiscent of AIM shares whose price sees controlled by chatroom gossip.

It starts to appear the 17p level shall prove crucial anytime soon for Sirius. In the event the share price manages trade above such a level, recovery to an initial 19.70p calculates as comfortably possible. Our secondary, if such a level bettered, computes at 25.7p and we suspect a rise will falter around such a level. Surprisingly, future recovery beyond this point looks like growth in 10p increments, something which we simply do not understand.

Otherwise, the problem level of 13p remains an issue until such time Sirius manages close a session above 18p. We’d be inclined to take this as a pretty solid movement into safety, even though the price has not exceeded BLUE on the chart.

Below 13p and it still looks like Sirius shall eventually bottom at 4p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:32:18PM	BRENT	64.29
10:34:23PM	GOLD	1414.67	1410.5	1405	1395.34	1428	1434	1441.29	1451	1414	Success
10:36:15PM	FTSE	7571.34									Success
10:38:30PM	FRANCE	5506.5									‘cess
10:41:50PM	GERMANY	12128									‘cess
10:47:25PM	US500	2973.42									Success
10:51:32PM	DOW	26826									Shambles
10:53:54PM	NASDAQ	7828.99	7769	7734	7634	7908	7908	7959.5	8023	7821	Success
10:57:26PM	JAPAN	21338									Success

31/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7586 points. Change of -0.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,192,499,053 a change of 21.96%

#SP500 #Japan When we last covered this potential disaster (and dodgy chart pattern) in May (link here), nerves were expressed regarding the share price future. A hopeful bottom of 82p had been designated as important, essentially as further drop potentials were really quite messy. In fact, 28p and less were mentioned as further drop targets!

Without a doubt, things have now gotten messy with the loss of their Chief Executive, a large pre-tax loss, and reportedly large numbers of customers unplugging from the company. Thankfully, their CEO was awarded a 44% pay rise in the last year, an award which will doubtless work wonders for staff moral within a company frantically attempting to put a positive spin on a pretty rotten day on the markets.

The situation now is dangerous but we are able to offer a slight glimmer of hope. The immediate situation suggests ongoing weakness below 73p should find its way to 63p next and hopefully, exhibit a bounce. Once again, we advocate extreme caution of 63p breaks as any bounce is liable to be short lived. Instead, there is the potentials for freefall down to a bottom (hopefully) at 28p.

In our opening paragraph, we mentioned a “Dodgy Chart Pattern”, something easily missed as it covers the period since 2003. The chart below shows the price has experienced a painfully clear Double Top from 2003 to 2015. Some people swear by this sort of thing, most people swear at this sort of thing but there is always the risk of Pattern Believers creating a self fulfilling prophecy. In the case of Centrica, it calculates with “Ultimate Bottom” down at 12p. We suspect most folk will be happy to fill up with Centrica shares if it ever actually achieved such a ridiculous number but, in the grand scheme of things, our own potential of 28p is pretty blooming close.

To get out of this mess, Centrica needs exceed 108p at present.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:50PM	BRENT	64.93									Success
9:50:57PM	GOLD	1431.01									‘cess
9:52:55PM	FTSE	7650.76
9:56:15PM	FRANCE	5499.7									Success
10:04:17PM	GERMANY	12130									Success
10:05:46PM	US500	3014.07	3000	2996.5	2986	3014	3017	3022.5	3030	3006	Success
10:12:17PM	DOW	27229.8									Success
10:19:02PM	NASDAQ	7976									Success
10:20:49PM	JAPAN	21509	21476	21457.5	21350	21535	21609	21643	21702	21542	‘cess

30/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7646 points. Change of -0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,897,611,362 a change of 3.5%

#GOLD #FRANCE If we accept US market experience under Mr Trump as gospel, it appears a look at UK Defence industries may be justified. For this reason, we took a hard look at #Qinetic as their performance over the last 18 months has already been “interesting”.

The immediate situation is fairly straightforward. Price movement now exceeding 307p should prove capable of targeting an initial 319p. Surprisingly, we note we already have three seperate criteria demanding movement to the 319p. Visually, it also makes sense despite the strong potential of a Glass Ceiling forming at such a level. Only with closure above 319p does our secondary calculation at 335p start to make sense, along with a new all time high.

Qinetic share price requires break below 267p to spoil the party, this tending nudge the price in the direction of 214p initially. If broken, secondary is at 187p.

For now, we’d be fairly comfortable with the suggestion 319 intends make a guest appearance fairly soon. As for the longer term, should the company follow the example of several US contractors, apparently we are supposed to believe the really longer term attraction comes from 365p.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:20:19PM	BRENT	63.72
10:25:26PM	GOLD	1427.34	1414	1408	1401	1425	1428	1432	1439	1418	‘cess
10:27:39PM	FTSE	7694.28									Success
10:29:26PM	FRANCE	5606	5580	5565	5545	5616	5625	5641.5	5673	5578	‘cess
10:30:54PM	GERMANY	12435.53									‘cess
10:33:27PM	US500	3022.07
10:35:36PM	DOW	27233
10:53:28PM	NASDAQ	7992									‘cess
10:55:49PM	JAPAN	21636									‘cess

 

29/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7686 points. Change of 1.81%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,698,235,425 a change of -1.48%

#FTSE #Brent This DNA testing fad looks like creating more trouble than Boris. Over the weekend, surprising news broke about three ‘brand new’ cousins when DNA evidence of late uncle’ activities emerged. Believing “this sort of thing only happened in TV soaps” is now a thing of the past but it makes for delicious gossip!

As for the markets, thus far SAGA has triggered an upward movement, albeit slowly. Lloyds Group on the other hand appears intent on heading to an initial 51.8p, requiring above 58.8p to trash the prospects. And Barclays has done nothing of note, despite their share price appearing more resilient than Lloyds.

Our “FTSE for FRIDAY” proved reliable with the index comfortably moving to our initial 7547 points. Thankfully, the market eventually closed the week above this target level at 7552 points, giving considerable hope for the next few sessions. The situation now suggests moves above 7561 points should bring a visit to an initial 7582 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7617 points. Overall, the market needs break below 7380 points to give early warning it’s all about to go wrong.

Aston Martin Lagonda share price has certainly taken a tumble. Without going into a lot of boring detail, for some time we’d been calculating a bottom around the 4 quid mark. However, recent reversals cause us to revisit this potential and now we’re showing 539p as bottom. We cannot calculate share price closure below such a point. At present, the price requires exceed 861p to regain the trend and give optimism. For now, it’s less 007 and more Oh Oh.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:18:37PM	BRENT	63.24	61	59.235	56.46	64.64	63.93	64.26	64.72	63.1
12:20:41PM	GOLD	1419.05
12:23:27PM	FTSE	7549.96									‘cess
1:24:34PM	FRANCE	5603
1:28:18PM	GERMANY	12425	12354	12321.5	12279	12421	12449	12470.5	12529	12391
1:30:12PM	US500	3022.52
1:36:09PM	DOW	27165
1:38:09PM	NASDAQ	8003.6									‘cess
1:40:00PM	JAPAN	21653

  

26/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7549 points. Change of 0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,783,845,666 a change of -16.38%

#FTSE #DOW Probably the only thing more boring than reading an analysis about the markets in this weather, is writing one. There’s something about Scotland which removes ones tolerance to heat as anything above 20 tends be regarded as “too hot”. As for the FTSE, it looks ready to wilt a bit more.

The market closed Thursday at 7500 points, its lunge downward to 7460 a few hours earlier proving pretty much exactly as expected from our lunchtime report. If any miracle bounce is to be judged as genuine, the index needs better 7533 points as this should apparently trigger some further movement to a modest 7547 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7582 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7493 points.

We’re not convinced as to the recovery potentials, instead suspecting below 7460 shall prove capable of reversal to an initial 7400 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7361 points. The tightest stop looks like it’s around 7507 points.

That’s it. Have a good weekend!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:22PM	BRENT	63.01
9:55:11PM	GOLD	1414.53									‘cess
9:58:47PM	FTSE	7473									Shambles
10:00:40PM	FRANCE	5566.7									Success
10:03:11PM	GERMANY	12352	12296	12219	12091	12427	12445	12459.5	12514	12338	Suc’ambles
10:05:09PM	US500	3005									‘cess
10:10:15PM	DOW	27112.5	27048	26982	26852	27225	27365	27488	27631	27185	Success
10:12:47PM	NASDAQ	7968.62									Shambles
10:14:35PM	JAPAN	21610									‘cess

25/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7489 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,916,977,228 a change of 8.26%

#SP500 #NK225 It’s funny but Mrs May always struck as the type of person found running a local authority (keen not to rock the boat) but unsuited to run a country. Now, she’s been replaced by someone who used to run a local authority – London. Life is doubtless going to become interesting and we’re starting to wonder if the banks shall benefit.

Barclays share price has cheerfully wandered through the downtrend for the last year, a movement we suspect was not accidental. Quite an interesting situation now presents itself as share price growth above 163p calculates as capable of movement to an initial 175p. If bettered, secondary works out at a surprising 193p!

We’re a little surprised at this behaviour. The drift through the downward trend removed Barclays, quite neatly, from a zone which has been promising a bottom eventually of 134p. Or far worse, if such a level broke. The immediate situation calls for a revamp of our thinking as the share requires closure below 158p to give a pretty firm suggestion some strong growth is not on the cards, anytime soon.

A suspicion exists of the market simply opting to start a new trend, while everyone tries to figure out what the new bloke in the hot seat is going to do next. Of course, the media will have us believe he also doesn’t know from one minute to the next. Hopefully Boris adopts Mr Trumps Twitter habits, entertaining the nation and giving those who seek to be offended plenty to moan about.

For now, some slight optimism exists for Barclays.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:21:02PM	BRENT	63.01									Shambles
10:22:38PM	GOLD	1426.55
10:29:27PM	FTSE	7513.9									Success
10:31:01PM	FRANCE	5630.2
10:33:13PM	GERMANY	12563
10:35:32PM	US500	3016.72	2996	2993	2984	3010	3019	3022.25	3030	3002	Success
10:38:07PM	DOW	27262
10:40:18PM	NASDAQ	7989.77									Success
10:47:44PM	JAPAN	21743	21613	21577.5	21514	21699	21768	21788.5	21847	21641	‘cess

24/07/2019 FTSE Closed at 7501 points. Change of -0.73%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,389,282,051 a change of 12.21%