Trends And Targets

#Dax With Fireworks Night coming early for Saudi, there’s a fair chance our recent gloomy outlook for #Brent is about to be turned on its head. With the Kingdom losing 1/2 its production capacity, early news it hopes to regain 33% on what’s left still leaves a huge hole in production and it’ll be reasonable to expect oil prices to react.

At present, Brent is trading around the 60 dollar mark, needing above the immediate downtrend at 63.45 to indicate something new is happening. In such an event, we anticipate some moves to an initial 65.80 dollars. Perhaps of more interest, if such a level bettered, we’re calculating 69.15 as “secondary” though, to be honest, the price of the stuff could accelerate to 73.92 and challenge the highs of April this year.

Above 73.92 and we’ll need take a further hard look at the tea leaves!

The reason for this is slightly strange but here goes. If a price exceeds the high achieved, once an up-trend has been broken, there’s a more than reasonable chance the trend break has failed, therefore giving the price an expectation of further recovery. Or in plain English, our doom and gloom expectation risks turning into a load of bollocks. In the case of Brent, if it now were to exceed 77 dollars for any reason, a cycle toward 111 dollars is a reasonable longer term expectation.

For now, to justify concern in another direction, the price of Brent requires drip below 56.50 dollars. (if we are to trust the revised Grey uptrend since 2016)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:01:16PM	BRENT	59.7	58.53	57.11	55.02	60.1	60.36	60.96	61.77	59.11
12:04:40PM	GOLD	1489									Shambles
2:05:12PM	FTSE	7335									‘cess
2:11:45PM	FRANCE	5646.5
2:14:14PM	GERMANY	12457	12400	12386	12349	12463	12497	12514	12542	12445
2:16:34PM	US500	3006.12
2:18:18PM	DOW	27214
2:20:16PM	NASDAQ	7884.39
2:48:11PM	JAPAN	22054									Success

 

13/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7367 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,645,792,852 a change of -3.82%

#DAX #DOW #Nasdaq The markets appear to be ignoring UK Boris. Since the Falklands, one of the favourite toys in beleaguered UK PM’s playbook has been to go to war with someone. Our current PM, in conflict with Scotland, all the MP’s, and now, The Queen, has changed the game. He hasn’t actually declared a conflict yet, perhaps this being the reason for FTSE stability.

Firstly, CannTrust, a cannabis focussed share which is getting a fair bit of coverage in forums as a “cheap” share. Presently trading around 1.61 dollars, the price requires above 2 dollars to convince it has a reasonable future. Instead, more likely is weakness below 1.57 risking further reversal to an initial 1.04 dollars. Worse, if broken, bottom is at 0.23 dollars, this being a point we cannot calculate below. Despite the popularity of cannabis shares, we’d prefer advocating caution with this one as it’s liable to leave investors “walking funny” with the wrong sort of cannabis experience!

Our ever popular FTSE for FRIDAY worries us a little, because our bias is toward some upward travel. Given UK media coverage of the British PM, we appear to have a ‘Trump like’ character, only one without brain or charisma.  Of course, USA markets flourished under the tutelage of the US president, so perhaps we shall suffer similar fate in the UK. This being the case, now above just 7370 points calculates with an initial near term ambition of 7398 points. If exceeded, secondary is at 7424 points. However, beware any triggering movement which happens with an opening second spike upward on the FTSE. If triggered, the tightest stop is wide at 7285 points. We’ve a theory we’re working on which suggests tighter could be safe at 7328 points. We’re cautious with this one.

Allegedly, in the event the market makes it below 7328, we should anticipate reversal to an initial 7297 points. If broken, our secondary comes along at 7237 points. If triggered, stop can be 7364 points.

Have a good weekend, even though there isn’t a Grand Prix.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:22:12PM	BRENT	59.99	58.53	57.99		60.25	61.06	62.025		59.87	Success
10:35:35PM	GOLD	1499.82	1496	1489.5		1509	1507	1523.25		1494	Success
10:42:01PM	FTSE	7352	7301	7277		7361	7365	7381.5		7314	‘cess
10:44:25PM	FRANCE	5641.5	5590	5578		5641	5668	5688		5576	Success
10:47:23PM	GERMANY	12410.38	12338	12274		12426	12475	12525.25		12341	Success
10:48:59PM	US500	3008.92	2999	2992.5		3013	3021	3026		3006
10:50:56PM	DOW	27170	27105	27037		27240	27322	27388.5		27128	‘cess
10:52:54PM	NASDAQ	7916.89	7882	7860		7958	7966	7993.75		7901	Success
10:56:41PM	JAPAN	21827	21691	21629.5		21792	21883	21966.25		21697	‘cess

 

12/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7344 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,870,235,819 a change of -19.47%

#DOW #SP500 Given events in the ‘Scottish Law v English Law, Boris v Parliament and UK v Europe’ shambles, it is probably safer to look outside the UK for signs of sanity. We’d glanced at the Euro / US Dollar pairing in March, projecting traffic down to 1.10 with this level successfully achieved. The drop exceeded our initial target on the first downward surge, generally bad news.

What does this mean?

The chart above shows movement for this pairing during the day on August 30th. The point at which our target 1.10 was achieved saw the pairing fall to 1.096, thus breaking the target and implying further weakness is possible. In the period since, the pair has bounced rather unconvincingly above and below our 1.10, thus tending to confirm it was indeed a valid target, along with signalling trouble ahead. The situation now appears fairly straightforward.

Below 1.092 should trigger further reversal to an initial 1.0635. If broken on the initial surge, our secondary is at 1.0494 and we now expect the pair to enact a bounce at such a level, if only to confirm the long term RED uptrend (from 2002!) has been broken. Effectively, this gives the hope of a bounce from 1.0494 up to 1.09 or so.

At present, to escape this quagmire, the relationship needs strengthen above 1.1240 but visually, there’s nothing significant which gives hope.

In summary, we’re all doomed…As usual.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:01PM	BRENT	60.7									‘cess
9:56:53PM	GOLD	1496.79
9:59:01PM	FTSE	7358									‘cess
10:02:52PM	FRANCE	5621									Success
10:06:07PM	GERMANY	12392									Success
10:07:50PM	US500	3002.07	2971	2959	2944	2990	3004	3035.25	3067	2971	Success
10:11:51PM	DOW	27159	26836	26737	26596	26989	27158	27308.5	27605	26870	Success
10:18:31PM	NASDAQ	7890.19									Success
10:32:03PM	JAPAN	21677									Success

 

11/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7338 points. Change of 0.98%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,289,107,172 a change of -4.98%

#DOW #NK225 Once again, it’s that time of year when TV shows video of 2 towers falling and (for some growing up even by the 1970’s), reminds of the day terrorism stole the mystery and magic of flying. A temptation to cover Boeing today was abandoned (heading up to $411). Instead, we favour VW, famed for the Bentley Continental GT…

Okay, VW make a few other things but enjoying being a passenger in a Bentley GT for an hour or so revived a memory of actually liking cars. Nowadays, it’s tempting to treat them as functional boxes (or if you own a Ford C-Max, non-functional boxes).

Our current transport for the two Golden Retrievers is a Toyota RAV4, a machine which doesn’t seem to break down, is fast, quiet, amazingly economical, handles, and pulls an occasional boat trailer. There’s absolutely nothing “special” about it whereas for ‘just a few pounds‘ more, the dogs could enjoy the rear seats of a Bentley coupe. The more thought given, it’s possible dogs are being abused by NOT being driven around in a Bentley!

The wheels came off this particular dream, when discussing the cost of servicing. Or even tyres and door mirrors, both frequent casualties of the road network here in Argyll. And to get real, a Bentley is not cheap to buy anyway.

VW’s share price has been languishing since their “Diesel Scandal” but there are some signs recovery may be coming. In the event the share manages to trade above 163 Euro, we calculate an initial ambition up at 177. In the event the price exceeds this level, our secondary comes in at 198 Euro and visually this will prove game changing for the longer term. On the chart below, VW’s downtrend in Blue defines daily closing prices, rather than daily highs as this appears how the share is being mapped. This being the case, we can even allow for optimism should the price of VW actually close a session above 159.75 Euro anytime soon. This will hopefully provide reliable early warning for a period of uphill acceleration.

Of course, there’s a fly in the ointment with this scenario as the price need only slump below 143 to give concern as this shall place the share at risk of 117 and below.

For now, thanks to an hour in a Bentley, we’re feeling kindly toward VW.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:28:29PM	BRENT	62.25									‘cess
9:30:00PM	GOLD	1487.02									‘cess
9:40:05PM	FTSE	7284.6									‘cess
9:43:28PM	FRANCE	5590									‘cess
9:46:45PM	GERMANY	12297									Success
9:48:38PM	US500	2978.17									‘cess
9:52:04PM	DOW	26892	26711	26651.5	26565	26860	26911	26938.5	26971	26770	‘cess
9:55:04PM	NASDAQ	7814.24									Success
9:56:24PM	JAPAN	21460	21289	21227	21145	21377	21473	21500.5	21571	21309	‘cess

10/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7267 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,671,153,383 a change of 53.94%

#Gold #SP500 As we cower in our homes in the UK, a country where anarchy is expected, thanks to Parliament being suspended, the rule of law ignored, our thoughts turn to precious metals and the need to put something aside for a rainy day. Historically, we’ve regarded Silver with distrust but it appears something may finally be happening.

If we’re reading the numbers correctly, should Silver now exceed just 19.80 dollars, we should anticipate growth to an initial 20.5 dollars. Whilst we quickly concede this isn’t particularly interesting, in the event of the metal managing to actually close a session above 20.5, continued travel to a secondary of 23 calculates as very probable. Above this point, it gets a little irrational as there’s very little to hinder rapid acceleration to 29 dollars.

Worth pointing out is an unpleasant facet of Silver.

Historically, price movements against the metal were capable of making Bitcoin look like a paragon of ethical behaviour. Visually, we’re fairly happy to project 23 dollars as it makes sense. As for the potential of acceleration to 29 dollars, the visuals hint this is possible but we’d warn, if such a journey happens quickly, it’s liable to be reversed even faster. Our distrust for Silver movements obviously adds to our bias but if collecting for a rainy day, it can be easy to get wet and catch a cold! The price of this metal needs above 35 US dollars before we’d abandon scepticism and hope for the future.

Finally, if it now melts below 17 dollars, hope for the immediate future vanishes. However, cheaper silver will doubtless fuel the supply of silver bullets, ensuring werewolves and vampires remain a rarity – at least outside UK politics.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:58PM	BRENT	62.34									‘cess
10:07:28PM	GOLD	1499.62	1497	1489	1476	1512	1515	1519.5	1527	1502
10:16:18PM	FTSE	7241.25									Success
10:18:22PM	FRANCE	5588.7
10:20:00PM	GERMANY	12226
10:21:51PM	US500	2978.87	2968	2961	2952	2980	2984	2989	2996	2975	Shambles
10:24:20PM	DOW	26842.7									Shambles
10:26:36PM	NASDAQ	7830.25									‘cess
10:31:05PM	JAPAN	21343									Success

9/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7236 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,983,141,484 a change of -2.48%

#Dax #Brent With thousands of BA pilots getting bolshy over salaries, one can only speculate how many will manage find themselves “stranded” in exotic destinations as they suffer a couple of days aggressive strike action. At least we shall no longer be bothered by impoverished pilots, passing their cap down the cabin of short haul jets in the hope of getting a tip…

Or was that Burundi Airways?

The big question is, shall the company share price suffer?

We’re not entirely sure. For some time, the share has calculated with 390 as a drop target but the lowest achieved has been 410p, making us wonder if some real strength is evident. After all, if a drop fails make computed target, the implication is of something other than weakness. Near term, the share price need only exceed 441p as this apparently should provoke some price recovery to an initial (useless) 454p.  Importantly, should 454p be exceeded, the first box to suggest “bottom” get ticked, allowing some firmer climbs to 486p. Unusually, above 486p already permits us to calculate a third level target of 516p, along with the visual suggestion the price has regained the uptrend since 2012.

We’re not entirely convinced.

It feels more likely we should expect weakness below 410p to provoke a bounce from 390p. There is a great danger, if such a level breaks, as secondary calculates down at 317p and a point where it almost “must” rebound. Only with closure below 317p will this share become an extremely dangerous idea, thanks to “ultimate” bottom, the point we cannot fathom below, being at 99p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
3:18:59AM	BRENT	61.47	59.14	58.305	57.18	60.9	61.68	61.825	62.72	60	‘cess
3:20:53AM	GOLD	1507.2									Shambles
3:22:21AM	FTSE	7302
3:24:35AM	FRANCE	5592.2
3:28:07AM	GERMANY	12194	12109	12065	12018	12162	12206	12250	12284	12128	‘cess
2:52:46PM	US500	2982.67									‘cess
2:57:20PM	DOW	26833
3:00:46PM	NASDAQ	7860.87
3:04:42PM	JAPAN	21223

 

 

6/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7282 points. Change of 0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,109,856,493 a change of -8.78%

#DAX #Nasdaq When reading a FT journalist comment about UK Politics never being so chaotic ‘since time began’, a brief memory of the 1970’s/80’s surfaced. Lots of General Elections, power cuts, food panics, fuel ration books, inflation, a mindset eventually leading to the widely known (rarely reported) ‘secret’ UK soldiers deployed, dressed as civilian policemen to “fight” striking miners in the earlier 1980’s. Somehow, our current shambles just isn’t the same!

The 70’s and early 80’s were “interesting times” with some real brinksmanship, unlike today, where we appear to be led by folk without gravitas or statesman like quality. But we do have a media, determined to pretend things have never been so bad as they are now. The purveyors of panic in the media must be experiencing a frisson of delight, if only due to the FTSE being DOWN 0.6% on a day the DOW was UP 1.6%.

In the last few days, the UK market has been challenging. But on Wednesday evening, we threw the toys from the pram and lied to ourselves with what was perhaps the most stupid logic available. The problem was, Thursday calculated as being an UP day on the FTSE. Everything pointed to this being possible. As a result, we adopted the stance of expecting a DOWN day! Our thinking was fairly basic, if UK market seems to be holding itself in place, neither accelerating upward nor downward. The logic by which upward travel was supposed to happen presented a scenario with continued growth possible to the 7700’s. Surely, a market which was awaiting guidance, would avoid this scenario and instead head downward.

It did.

Closing Thursday at 7265, there is now a problem if the FTSE makes its way below 7240. We can calculate travel down to an initial 7213 points with secondary, if broken, at 7174 points. Visually this appears not terribly traumatic and thus, there’s a reasonable chance of it happening.

However, if the market opts to remain marching on the spot, above 7289 is supposed to bring an initial 7313 points with secondary, if bettered, at 7338 points. As the chart below highlights, neither target level challenges the hiatus which has been the first few days of September. As a result, we suspect this shall be the route taken.

Above 7338 should prove interesting, breaking from trend and expecting 7390 points. We doubt it.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:06PM	BRENT	60.57									Success
10:12:57PM	GOLD	1519.7									Success
10:16:11PM	FTSE	7248.68									Shambles
10:19:13PM	FRANCE	5584									Success
10:22:17PM	GERMANY	12110	12066	12040	11999	12135	12140	12177.25	12284	12076	Success
10:24:38PM	US500	2969.72									Success
10:29:09PM	DOW	26686									Success
10:40:03PM	NASDAQ	7847	7730	7652.5	7576	7833	7882	7904	7915	7760	Success
10:43:31PM	JAPAN	21131									Success

5/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7271 points. Change of -0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,601,988,154 a change of -7.64%