Trends And Targets

#Brent #Dax A local newspaper here in Scotland put the entire US election into perspective. Their headline “Local Ayrshire Golf Club owner loses US presidential election bid” placed the US shambles in proper perspective. However, similar to property sales, we shall only be convinced of the result when we witness who’s waving from the balcony on January 20th next. In fact, to stick to a vaguely Scottish theme, even then it may not be over.

There are a few unpleasant similarities with the last Scottish independence vote and the ongoing US election. A tight election result along with an overwhelmingly negative media, similar to Scotland’s tight referendum result, is unlikely to calm things down in North America. Additionally, with Scotland showing some extremely dodgy “postal vote” numbers from the referendum, it was easy to understand why Mr Trump was quite firm in his distrust of this method of voting. Amusingly, the most suspicious “postal vote” count came from Argyll in Scotland, birthplace of the US presidents mother, where postal returns were almost unanimous against Scottish independence with an almost impossible turnout of 96%, something which suggests no-one had died or moved house in the year since the electoral register was compiled!

To cut a long story short, just as the Scottish independence issue was unresolved with a tight vote, equally with feel the occupancy of the big house in America will generate considerable debate.

 

Aside from obvious entertainment value, our greater concern is more important as the markets shall prefer stability and at present we’re not comfortable we’re seeing any signs among normal key shares.

 

Barclays Plc are a case in point. Presently trading around 110p, the price needs a visual miracle above 135p to give early suggestions things are about to improve. Such a trigger is liable to be quite important, “risking” provoking a recovery cycle to an initial 192p. Only with closure above such a level shall drooling be approved, this strongly hinting longer term miracle recovery toward 290p will become possible.

If things intend go pear shaped, the share price requires weakness below 92p to justify a raised eyebrow. This calculates with the potential of coming reversals to an initial 82p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of a less likely 68p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:16:29PM	BRENT	39.81	39.44	39.295	38.52	39.95	40.78	41.12	41.68	39.8	Success
1:39:00PM	GOLD	1951.82									‘cess
1:42:51PM	FTSE	5922.15									‘cess
1:44:41PM	FRANCE	4957									‘cess
2:24:33PM	GERMANY	12519.01	12364	12300	12202	12514	12594	12677.25	12771	12455
2:28:47PM	US500	3515.22
2:31:03PM	DOW	28363
2:33:51PM	NASDAQ	12097
2:35:41PM	JAPAN	24322									‘cess

6/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5910 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,135,966,574 a change of 1.03%

5/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5906 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,073,393,491 a change of 24.88%

4/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5883 points. Change of 1.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,863,439,336 a change of 7.3%

3/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5786 points. Change of 2.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,532,627,706 a change of 3.31%

2/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5654 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,387,376,936 a change of -3.73%

30/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5577 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,332,693 a change of -12.99%

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

#FTSE #WallSt As the entertainment from North America continues, we’re about ready to wind up our USA features in this headline section. Unless, of course, the shambles continues over the weekend and the country accidentally elects Kermit the Frog as president instead! Certainly, a Muppet as president would surely exhibit better communication skills than many in the media as they’ve stumbled through coverage of the election. Surely questions must be asked of those who predicted civil war should “the wrong” candidate win the vote?

An abiding memory from April came from media coverage of Covid-19 in New York, camera’s lovingly caressing images of a mass grave as unclaimed bodies from morgues were interred during the panic. The impression given was of a country unable to cope with events but the reality made a bit more sense. This event occurs fairly frequently in New York and prisoners from nearby Rikers Island jail even have a set pay rate established to bury unclaimed bodies. Similarly, in the UK, we’d to witness TV images of disasters unfolding in Spain and Italy while friends in these countries reacted with shock, when asked about the stories. They were pretty sure they’d know about convoys of military trucks carrying coffins.

The Dow Jones completed Thursday, looking a bit underwhelmed by all the scare stories. Instead, Wall St looks poised for movement to new all time highs and this, perhaps, should be the real shock given the much publicised 2nd Wave of the pandemic. As someone without an effective immune system, this is obviously a worry but realistically, maintaining levels of paranoia has been relatively easy, thanks to living in the countryside of Scotland where people scarcity is the norm.

For Wall St, movement next above 28,500 points looks capable of driving market growth to an initial 29,287 points. This comes very close to challenging the previous all time market high in February this year and despite the visuals suggesting a potential glass ceiling, we’re not convinced. Moves above 29,287 should prove capable of attaining 30,552 points eventually, yet another all time high and a remarkable feat for such a tragic year as 2020. A small fly in the ointment is presented by the Red line on the chart. The index required to CLOSE the session on 5th November above 28,427 points. Despite a day high above this level, the market closed at 28,390 points and slightly below the line.

Perhaps some doubt remains as to which Muppet the US intends elect…

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX)  Quite remarkably, the FTSE has exhibited similar behaviour to The Dow Jones in respecting its Red uptrend since the Covid-19 drop in March. There are even very early signs a true market rally is nearly upon us, the logic behind which totally defeats. The immediate situation is fairly impressive.

Movement next above 5934 points should prove capable of lifting the market to an initial 5970 points. If exceeded, our “longer term” secondary (aka maybe later that day) calculates at 6088 points. The secondary is pretty important, placing the UK index in a zone where a further 100 point lift to 6188 becomes expected. But critically, the market absolutely must close a session above 6088 to permit untrammelled optimism for the future. While visually this argument may not make sense, our software is showing 6088 as a “red flag” level which must be beaten.

If things intend go horribly wrong, the FTSE needs reverse below 5825 to give the first sign of trouble ahead, allowing reversal to commence to an initial 5777 points. If broken, our secondary calculates down at 5680 points.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:57:11PM	BRENT	40.87	40.43	40.185		41.4	41.62	42.06		40.3
10:59:52PM	GOLD	1949	1924	1917		1948	1953	1963		1926	Success
11:02:00PM	FTSE	5899.64	5835	5803		5891	5932	5944		5874	‘cess
11:04:18PM	FRANCE	4971	4940	4925.5		4986	5000	5018.5		4954	‘cess
11:06:34PM	GERMANY	12523	12251	12185		12397	12590	12730		12477	Success
11:17:52PM	US500	3510	3459	3449.5		3488	3529	3558.5		3479	‘cess
11:20:22PM	DOW	28405	27937	27801.5		28200	28505	28594.5		28220	‘cess
11:22:34PM	NASDAQ	12081	11912	11885.5		12109	12142	12272		11983	‘cess
11:24:35PM	JAPAN	24180	23934	23759		24065	24362	24433		24219

5/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5906 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,073,393,491 a change of 24.88%

4/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5883 points. Change of 1.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,863,439,336 a change of 7.3%

3/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5786 points. Change of 2.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,532,627,706 a change of 3.31%

2/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5654 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,387,376,936 a change of -3.73%

30/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5577 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,332,693 a change of -12.99%

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

28/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of -2.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,478,792,407 a change of 41.97%

 

#Gold #Japan It was around 4.30am when the penny dropped, a realisation the US election was being viewed for ‘entertainment’ value. There was no great underlying geopolitical motive, instead the US results (washed down with plenty of rum) proved as enjoyable as watching Eurovision results while ducking the horror of actually watching the acts perform. Perhaps this explains the fascination within the UK & Europe for the still unravelling American mess.

The US has turned “normal” on its head. There’s a saying about ‘counting chickens before the eggs are hatched’ and it’s something the markets are dangerously close forcing us to propose, especially with the Nasdaq. Strangely, an issue made itself clear during the night as we were watching market futures in conjunction with TV election coverage. When it looks like Mr Trump would make a gain, futures for Wall St would blip upward. Conversely, when Mr Bidet looked like making a gain, Wall St futures would dip. This state of affairs continued until 8am, when everything turned on its head and the night-time decline started to reverse. This time, it only took a gain for the Democrat contender to provoke Wall St gains!

Analysis of this behaviour quickly revealed a cause. No-one has a clue what’s actually going on…

 

This brings us to the Nasdaq. On 4th November, the index has performed with impressive strength and now calculates with the potential of some amazing numbers. Apparently growth next bettering 11,850 points should attempt an initial 12,066 points. If exceeded, our “longer term” secondary computes with a target of 12,433 points, virtually exactly matching the all-time high from the start of September. Importantly, there’s something significant about such ambition. In the event the Nasdaq somehow manages to close a session above 12,433 points, we’ve a strong logic demanding a cycle of further gains commence, giving a present of an additional 1,001 points.

 

For trouble to make itself know, the Nasdaq needs reverse below 11,300 points. Such calamity risks provoking reversal to an initial 9,670 points with secondary, if broken, at 8,560 points. Visually this appears unlikely but do remember the big rule.

Times are not normal.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:52:06PM	BRENT	41.3									‘cess
9:56:25PM	GOLD	1904.16	1887	1881.5	1871	1900	1906	1913	1931	1892	Shambles
10:36:09PM	FTSE	5861.2									Shambles
10:38:41PM	FRANCE	4888.7									Success
10:42:07PM	GERMANY	12292									Success
10:46:30PM	US500	3450									Success
10:54:30PM	DOW	27939									Success
10:56:18PM	NASDAQ	11839									Success
10:59:43PM	JAPAN	24039	23854	23786	23694	23946	24062	24111.5	24196	23911	‘cess

 

 

4/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5883 points. Change of 1.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,863,439,336 a change of 7.3%

3/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5786 points. Change of 2.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,532,627,706 a change of 3.31%

2/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5654 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,387,376,936 a change of -3.73%

30/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5577 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,332,693 a change of -12.99%

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

28/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of -2.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,478,792,407 a change of 41.97%

27/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5728 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,563,468,631 a change of 6.98%

#FTSE #DOW It’s been mentioned several times, a usually reliable “tell” for US election results is the state of the markets. If the markets are doing well, the incumbent president wins. By the times voting closes, it appears the S&P shall be UP 56% during Trumps time in office, the Nasdaq UP 135% and Wall St UP by 49%. In comparison with prior presidential results, this tends suggest Mr Trump should experience a landslide, able to again frustrate virtually an entire media who dislike the bloke.

Perhaps this year shall prove to be the election result which turns “normal” on its head. After all, 2020 has utterly failed in providing anything else approaching “normal”. However, our previous analysis against the S&P in July proved pretty concise, the index performing pretty much as expected at each target level.

The last week has seen the S&P execute some fairly interesting movements, ones which almost feel like they attempt to conceal optimism.  It’s quite apt, given the singer Lady GaGa has been campaigning for Mr Biden, the S&P performed its own GaGa manouvre, a Gap Down followed by a Gap Up. This sort of nonsense is usually a precursor to solid market gains and in the case of the S&P, we shall be convinced if the market heads above just 3,430 points. This should prove significant, triggering movement toward an initial 3,580 points with secondary, if beaten, a comfortable looking 3,700 points and a brand new, shiny and confident, all time high.

It appears, if the numbers can be trusted, we should anticipate Mr Trump again excelling at issuing incomprehensible Tweets from the bar at the White House, at odd hours.

CRISPR Therapeutics (Nasdaq:CRSP It’s unusual to come across something which sounds like Crisps without seeing Gary Lineker, a former footballer turned full time unhealthy food promoter, involved in the background. Thankfully, this company avoids fattening snack foods, taking their name from a family of DNA sequences founds in gnomes… Okay, that’s a joke, they’re playing with the sequences from the genome of bacteria but it’s a pity David Bowie isn’t around to rework his tune, “The Laughing Genome!”

Recent price moves have felt defensive, the share carefully avoiding closing a session below the Red uptrend since March of this year. Perhaps this indicates some surprise recovery is almost upon us. Price weakness below 84 certainly risks some danger, apparently capable of triggering reversal down to an initial 68 dollars. Visually, we’re not convinced a bounce shall be generated at such a level, especially as any weakness below allows bigger picture reversal to a hopeful bottom of 48 dollars.

 

If we choose to take hope from the price refusing to close below Red, some surprising gains look pretty certain if the share price manages a miracle recovery above Blue, presently $99. A trigger such as this calculates as capable of an initial $111, matching the previous all time high. If bettered, further traffic to 131 works out as possible. The bad news?

We suspect it intends $48.

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:43:27PM	BRENT	40.29									‘cess
10:45:28PM	GOLD	1909.91									‘cess
10:47:47PM	FTSE	5796.64	5691	5645.5	5591	5748	5809	5848	5946	5700	Success
10:49:24PM	FRANCE	4820.2									Success
10:52:00PM	GERMANY	12165.87									Success
10:54:02PM	US500	3367.9									Success
11:07:13PM	DOW	27541	27223	27179.5	27022	27397	27652	27750	28039	27350	‘cess
11:09:05PM	NASDAQ	11293									‘cess
11:11:40PM	JAPAN	23835									Success

3/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5786 points. Change of 2.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,532,627,706 a change of 3.31%

2/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5654 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,387,376,936 a change of -3.73%

30/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5577 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,332,693 a change of -12.99%

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

28/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of -2.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,478,792,407 a change of 41.97%

27/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5728 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,563,468,631 a change of 6.98%

26/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5792 points. Change of -1.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,265,904,937 a change of -0.45%

#Gold #SP500 It’s time for the US election. With stores in New York boarding their windows up, our thoughts obviously turned to companies liable to be influenced by the vote. Gun maker, Smith & Wesson, were an obvious first choice to benefit from a result no-one likes, but surprisingly, we were unable to find a stock market listed company who sell tear gas, armoured clothing, and the usual paraphernalia associated with election results and civil unrest…

We’re intending to focus on the US this week as there appears ample reason to anticipate some volatility. It’s a little frightening the number of media outlets speculating on the possibility of a civil war with “the wrong” election result. To be honest, we’re not entirely sure which candidate would be “the wrong” winner!

The other share we chose for analysis, Brookfield Asset Management, was a more straightforward choice. If the US Democrat wins, Green and renewable energy is liable to produce some recovery, whereas if Mr Trump wins, Brookfield enjoy a substantial international footprint, one which should insulate their share price from a Republican win.

 

It was a surprise to learn the much vaunted “Right to Bear Arms” in the USA, often thought to be a statute to ensure towns could protect themselves from rampaging English redcoats, was favoured for quite a different reason. The population of the frontier nation approved of guns, due to their use against Native Americans or escaping slaves. Essentially the USA liked guns mainly to use against their own people.

 

Smith & Wesson are regarded as the largest supplier of American made weaponry with figures surfacing of record sales in recent times. For instance, their most recent Earnings Per Share reported at $0.97, substantially ahead of analysts estimates of just $0.56. Since this bumper report in September, their share price has declined to around $17 presently. Any movement next below 15 dollars will tend suggest coming reversal to $12 with secondary, if broken, at $8.6 and hopefully a real bounce.

The share price requires exceed 19 dollars to convince us some miracle recovery is happening, perhaps thanks to a presidential outcome driving even greater demand for weaponry. Only above the 19 dollar mark dare we mention an initial recovery target of 24.5 dollars with secondary, if exceeded, up at $27.5 and some probable hesitation, due to the prior high level.

Closure above 27.5 shall be thought of as a really big deal, signalling the potential of a future 36 dollar ambition.

Perhaps worth watching as things could change this week.

Brookfield Assent Management, NYSE:BAM. A company with their feet in every camp of energy supply, ranging from Hydroelectric through Solar and Wind are likely to experience a boost should the Biden camp triumph in the election. To convince us a price movement is genuine, we’ll be happy if the share manages above the $40 level as this looks very capable of driving recovery to an initial $48. If bettered, our secondary of $61 makes a lot of visual sense.

To suggest trauma, weakness below the 29 dollar level looks fairly non-threatening, calculating with the potential of a visit to an initial $26 with secondary, if broken, down at $22 and hopefully a proper rebound.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:32PM	BRENT	39.32
10:00:36PM	GOLD	1895.92	1874	1870.5	1862	1886	1897	1906.5	1922	1874	‘cess
10:03:07PM	FTSE	5665									‘cess
10:24:35PM	FRANCE	4699.7									‘cess
10:26:55PM	GERMANY	11808									‘cess
10:42:56PM	US500	3309	3250	3239	3208	3290	3319	3341	3377	3279	‘cess
10:45:16PM	DOW	26950									Success
10:59:58PM	NASDAQ	11081
11:02:32PM	JAPAN	23430									Success

2/11/2020 FTSE Closed at 5654 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,387,376,936 a change of -3.73%

30/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5577 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,332,693 a change of -12.99%

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

28/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of -2.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,478,792,407 a change of 41.97%

27/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5728 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,563,468,631 a change of 6.98%

26/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5792 points. Change of -1.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,265,904,937 a change of -0.45%

23/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5860 points. Change of 1.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,091,177 a change of -6.52%

#Brent #Dax Since March, Natwest share price has been about as interesting as this years Top Gear series on BBC. Doubtless thanks to Covid, three generally entertaining presenters appeared to lose their way as the series continued, their short season completing with a pretty predictable episode. Should they have even bothered as the effort tended make the franchise less interesting.

Similarly, retail bank shares have spent the last 6 months, giving the impression of “nothing happening here, move along” and while we hope for some recovery, the prospects feel increasingly unlikely. Natwest share price, despite fulfilling our gain scenario to 124p in our previous report, has a price movement chart which shows a considerable lack of confidence since the pandemic took hold.

The immediate problem is fairly straightforward, thanks to the visuals implying some sort of glass ceiling awaits, almost regardless of any near term gains. At present, above 125p now suggests the possibility of price recovery to an initial 134p. If exceeded, our secondary ambition calculates at 140.5p and this is where an issue awaits. Since March, Natwest share price has made two attempts at the 140 level and we shall not be aghast if any future attempt falters at such a price. Only with closure above 140.5p shall it feel like an attempt to break free from the doldrums is upon up, launching the banks share price into a region where a longer term 191p is allegedly believable!

 

If trouble is planned, weakness next below 101p shall be controversial, taking the share into a zone where reversal to 90p becomes possible with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 60p. Early warning of trauma will be reversals below Red, presently around 113p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:11:07PM	BRENT	37.91	37.36	36.95	36.39	38.1	38.7	39.07	39.59	37.7
1:14:33PM	GOLD	1879									‘cess
1:18:38PM	FTSE	5603
1:23:22PM	FRANCE	4624									Shambles
1:43:12PM	GERMANY	11628	11326	11262	11134	11452	11646	11717.5	11848	11524	Success
1:52:48PM	US500	3285									‘cess
1:55:28PM	DOW	26615									Success
2:03:08PM	NASDAQ	11099									Success
2:06:58PM	JAPAN	23181									Success

 

30/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5577 points. Change of -0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,557,332,693 a change of -12.99%

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

28/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of -2.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,478,792,407 a change of 41.97%

27/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5728 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,563,468,631 a change of 6.98%

26/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5792 points. Change of -1.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,265,904,937 a change of -0.45%

23/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5860 points. Change of 1.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,091,177 a change of -6.52%

22/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5785 points. Change of 0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,583,747,550 a change of 11.03%

#FTSE #Gold In Argyll, Scotland, we take some absurd numbers for granted at this time of year. Things like 5 to 10cm of rain expected, or winds of 70mph become normal. Not for us, the picturesque autumn ideal of leaves gently shimmering to the ground. Instead, leaves are waterlogged, blasted horizontally at speed, and clog drains. The funny thing, if the number “70” is mentioned anywhere else, it’s with the assumption of a temperature above 21c. Equally, 5 to 10cm would be socially acceptable snowfall. At time of writing, our gentle garden stream has become a raging torrent, its outflow into the sea probably visible by satellite as the muddy flow stains the water.

This fascination with numbers actually was inspired by last Fridays FTSE outlook! Numbers are important, even when perceived as something different. As can be guessed, autumn is most certainly not our favourite season, here in our part of Scotland.

Our criteria against the UK market projected 5620 points, a target achieved on Wednesday morning (proving, again, our grasp of timeframes stinks) and unfortunately, the predicted bounce was by only 30 points. The last 48 hours have seen our 5620 level effectively behave has a glass ceiling with the index bouncing up and down against this level. The high of the day on Thursday at 5617 points was almost an insult, the market teasing we’d obviously identified a short term pivot level.

 

The FTSE closed Thursday at 5581 points. By any standards, the market is in very dangerous territory.

 

Weakness next below 5525 points now calculates with the potential of reversal to an initial 5265 points. If broken, secondary works out down at an absurd sounding 5095 and hopefully a proper bounce. Unfortunately, in this numeric limbo dance, this secondary could easily extend to the 4999 point level, a point where the visuals (thanks to the March Covid-19 drop) indicate some sort of glass floor awaits.

Perhaps we’re falling victim to the usual assumptions of the end of a month causing problems. Or a global pandemic causing problems. Or the US election causing problems. Or Halloween causing problems. Regardless, it’s easy to fall into the mindset of expecting the worst. We shall be interested if the FTSE recovers above 5630 points next. Such a movement is supposed to trigger market recovery to an initial 5697 points with secondary, if exceeded, at 5804 points. Neither number inspires much confidence, the UK index needing above 5880 points to suggest movements since last Friday have been a bad dream.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:46:06PM	BRENT	38.17	37.24	36.93		38.6	38.6	39.145		37.8	Success
10:07:17PM	GOLD	1869.51	1860	1856.5		1878	1880	1886		1865	‘cess
10:12:09PM	FTSE	5585	5531	5445		5604	5633	5654		5592
10:14:31PM	FRANCE	4564	4508	4383		4607	4607	4649		4560	Shambles
10:27:10PM	GERMANY	11582	11556	11501		11615	11711	11768		11560	Shambles
10:29:25PM	US500	3279.37	3271	3255		3306	3342	3354		3292
10:31:47PM	DOW	26436	26271	26207		26472	26906	27039		26620	‘cess
10:34:24PM	NASDAQ	11193	11167	11108		11293	11285	11302		11220	Success
10:36:51PM	JAPAN	23221	23155	23083		23305	23380	23499		23240	‘cess

 

29/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5581 points. Change of -0.02%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,237,564,347 a change of -19.16%

28/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of -2.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,478,792,407 a change of 41.97%

27/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5728 points. Change of -1.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,563,468,631 a change of 6.98%

26/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5792 points. Change of -1.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,265,904,937 a change of -0.45%

23/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5860 points. Change of 1.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,091,177 a change of -6.52%

22/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5785 points. Change of 0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,583,747,550 a change of 11.03%

21/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5776 points. Change of -1.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,128,443,901 a change of 8.25%