#Gold #SP500 It’s time for the US election. With stores in New York boarding their windows up, our thoughts obviously turned to companies liable to be influenced by the vote. Gun maker, Smith & Wesson, were an obvious first choice to benefit from a result no-one likes, but surprisingly, we were unable to find a stock market listed company who sell tear gas, armoured clothing, and the usual paraphernalia associated with election results and civil unrest…
We’re intending to focus on the US this week as there appears ample reason to anticipate some volatility. It’s a little frightening the number of media outlets speculating on the possibility of a civil war with “the wrong” election result. To be honest, we’re not entirely sure which candidate would be “the wrong” winner!
The other share we chose for analysis, Brookfield Asset Management, was a more straightforward choice. If the US Democrat wins, Green and renewable energy is liable to produce some recovery, whereas if Mr Trump wins, Brookfield enjoy a substantial international footprint, one which should insulate their share price from a Republican win.
It was a surprise to learn the much vaunted “Right to Bear Arms” in the USA, often thought to be a statute to ensure towns could protect themselves from rampaging English redcoats, was favoured for quite a different reason. The population of the frontier nation approved of guns, due to their use against Native Americans or escaping slaves. Essentially the USA liked guns mainly to use against their own people.
Smith & Wesson are regarded as the largest supplier of American made weaponry with figures surfacing of record sales in recent times. For instance, their most recent Earnings Per Share reported at $0.97, substantially ahead of analysts estimates of just $0.56. Since this bumper report in September, their share price has declined to around $17 presently. Any movement next below 15 dollars will tend suggest coming reversal to $12 with secondary, if broken, at $8.6 and hopefully a real bounce.
The share price requires exceed 19 dollars to convince us some miracle recovery is happening, perhaps thanks to a presidential outcome driving even greater demand for weaponry. Only above the 19 dollar mark dare we mention an initial recovery target of 24.5 dollars with secondary, if exceeded, up at $27.5 and some probable hesitation, due to the prior high level.
Closure above 27.5 shall be thought of as a really big deal, signalling the potential of a future 36 dollar ambition.
Perhaps worth watching as things could change this week.
Brookfield Assent Management, NYSE:BAM. A company with their feet in every camp of energy supply, ranging from Hydroelectric through Solar and Wind are likely to experience a boost should the Biden camp triumph in the election. To convince us a price movement is genuine, we’ll be happy if the share manages above the $40 level as this looks very capable of driving recovery to an initial $48. If bettered, our secondary of $61 makes a lot of visual sense.
To suggest trauma, weakness below the 29 dollar level looks fairly non-threatening, calculating with the potential of a visit to an initial $26 with secondary, if broken, down at $22 and hopefully a proper rebound.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:58:32PM | BRENT | 39.32 | |||||||||
| 10:00:36PM | GOLD | 1895.92 | 1874 | 1870.5 | 1862 | 1886 | 1897 | 1906.5 | 1922 | 1874 | ‘cess |
| 10:03:07PM | FTSE | 5665 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:24:35PM | FRANCE | 4699.7 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:26:55PM | GERMANY | 11808 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 10:42:56PM | US500 | 3309 | 3250 | 3239 | 3208 | 3290 | 3319 | 3341 | 3377 | 3279 | ‘cess |
| 10:45:16PM | DOW | 26950 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:59:58PM | NASDAQ | 11081 | |||||||||
| 11:02:32PM | JAPAN | 23430 | Success |