#FTSE #Gold In Argyll, Scotland, we take some absurd numbers for granted at this time of year. Things like 5 to 10cm of rain expected, or winds of 70mph become normal. Not for us, the picturesque autumn ideal of leaves gently shimmering to the ground. Instead, leaves are waterlogged, blasted horizontally at speed, and clog drains. The funny thing, if the number “70” is mentioned anywhere else, it’s with the assumption of a temperature above 21c. Equally, 5 to 10cm would be socially acceptable snowfall. At time of writing, our gentle garden stream has become a raging torrent, its outflow into the sea probably visible by satellite as the muddy flow stains the water.
This fascination with numbers actually was inspired by last Fridays FTSE outlook! Numbers are important, even when perceived as something different. As can be guessed, autumn is most certainly not our favourite season, here in our part of Scotland.
Our criteria against the UK market projected 5620 points, a target achieved on Wednesday morning (proving, again, our grasp of timeframes stinks) and unfortunately, the predicted bounce was by only 30 points. The last 48 hours have seen our 5620 level effectively behave has a glass ceiling with the index bouncing up and down against this level. The high of the day on Thursday at 5617 points was almost an insult, the market teasing we’d obviously identified a short term pivot level.
The FTSE closed Thursday at 5581 points. By any standards, the market is in very dangerous territory.
Weakness next below 5525 points now calculates with the potential of reversal to an initial 5265 points. If broken, secondary works out down at an absurd sounding 5095 and hopefully a proper bounce. Unfortunately, in this numeric limbo dance, this secondary could easily extend to the 4999 point level, a point where the visuals (thanks to the March Covid-19 drop) indicate some sort of glass floor awaits.
Perhaps we’re falling victim to the usual assumptions of the end of a month causing problems. Or a global pandemic causing problems. Or the US election causing problems. Or Halloween causing problems. Regardless, it’s easy to fall into the mindset of expecting the worst. We shall be interested if the FTSE recovers above 5630 points next. Such a movement is supposed to trigger market recovery to an initial 5697 points with secondary, if exceeded, at 5804 points. Neither number inspires much confidence, the UK index needing above 5880 points to suggest movements since last Friday have been a bad dream.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:46:06PM | BRENT | 38.17 | 37.24 | 36.93 | 38.6 | 38.6 | 39.145 | 37.8 | Success | ||
| 10:07:17PM | GOLD | 1869.51 | 1860 | 1856.5 | 1878 | 1880 | 1886 | 1865 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:12:09PM | FTSE | 5585 | 5531 | 5445 | 5604 | 5633 | 5654 | 5592 | |||
| 10:14:31PM | FRANCE | 4564 | 4508 | 4383 | 4607 | 4607 | 4649 | 4560 | Shambles | ||
| 10:27:10PM | GERMANY | 11582 | 11556 | 11501 | 11615 | 11711 | 11768 | 11560 | Shambles | ||
| 10:29:25PM | US500 | 3279.37 | 3271 | 3255 | 3306 | 3342 | 3354 | 3292 | |||
| 10:31:47PM | DOW | 26436 | 26271 | 26207 | 26472 | 26906 | 27039 | 26620 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:34:24PM | NASDAQ | 11193 | 11167 | 11108 | 11293 | 11285 | 11302 | 11220 | Success | ||
| 10:36:51PM | JAPAN | 23221 | 23155 | 23083 | 23305 | 23380 | 23499 | 23240 | ‘cess |