#Brent #Dax A local newspaper here in Scotland put the entire US election into perspective. Their headline “Local Ayrshire Golf Club owner loses US presidential election bid” placed the US shambles in proper perspective. However, similar to property sales, we shall only be convinced of the result when we witness who’s waving from the balcony on January 20th next. In fact, to stick to a vaguely Scottish theme, even then it may not be over.
There are a few unpleasant similarities with the last Scottish independence vote and the ongoing US election. A tight election result along with an overwhelmingly negative media, similar to Scotland’s tight referendum result, is unlikely to calm things down in North America. Additionally, with Scotland showing some extremely dodgy “postal vote” numbers from the referendum, it was easy to understand why Mr Trump was quite firm in his distrust of this method of voting. Amusingly, the most suspicious “postal vote” count came from Argyll in Scotland, birthplace of the US presidents mother, where postal returns were almost unanimous against Scottish independence with an almost impossible turnout of 96%, something which suggests no-one had died or moved house in the year since the electoral register was compiled!
To cut a long story short, just as the Scottish independence issue was unresolved with a tight vote, equally with feel the occupancy of the big house in America will generate considerable debate.
Aside from obvious entertainment value, our greater concern is more important as the markets shall prefer stability and at present we’re not comfortable we’re seeing any signs among normal key shares.
Barclays Plc are a case in point. Presently trading around 110p, the price needs a visual miracle above 135p to give early suggestions things are about to improve. Such a trigger is liable to be quite important, “risking” provoking a recovery cycle to an initial 192p. Only with closure above such a level shall drooling be approved, this strongly hinting longer term miracle recovery toward 290p will become possible.
If things intend go pear shaped, the share price requires weakness below 92p to justify a raised eyebrow. This calculates with the potential of coming reversals to an initial 82p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of a less likely 68p eventually.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 1:16:29PM | BRENT | 39.81 | 39.44 | 39.295 | 38.52 | 39.95 | 40.78 | 41.12 | 41.68 | 39.8 | Success |
| 1:39:00PM | GOLD | 1951.82 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 1:42:51PM | FTSE | 5922.15 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 1:44:41PM | FRANCE | 4957 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 2:24:33PM | GERMANY | 12519.01 | 12364 | 12300 | 12202 | 12514 | 12594 | 12677.25 | 12771 | 12455 | |
| 2:28:47PM | US500 | 3515.22 | |||||||||
| 2:31:03PM | DOW | 28363 | |||||||||
| 2:33:51PM | NASDAQ | 12097 | |||||||||
| 2:35:41PM | JAPAN | 24322 | ‘cess |
