#Brent #DAX The saga of Sterling against the Dollar #GBPUSD must surely deserve a country music song. Or perhaps some Blues music. The pairing had reached the point where reversal to parity appeared destined, a mood which lasted an entire session at the start of September. Then it changed direction faster than UK political policies when viewed against opinion polls.
Before embracing optimism for the future, it looks worth pointing out the danger if this pairing wanders below Blue on the chart anytime now. Generally speaking, this will be a dreadfully dangerous signal, taking the pair back into a region where severe reversal to parity once again becomes probable, extremely probable. Blue is presently around 1.26, dipping to around 1.25 by the end of this year. When a price breaks above a down trend, then retreats again below, a loss of confidence usually occurs pretty quickly thereafter.
For now, we shall pretend faith in Sterlings potential for the future as above 1.30 should now bring recovery to an initial 1.314, sufficient profit to enjoy air conditioned luxury in Pizza Express. Above 1.31 and we’re supposed to accept the potential of ongoing longer term recovery toward 1.35 in the future, an outcome with a considerable question mark due to the ruling downtrend from 2014.
At present, the pairing needs above 1.32 to beat this downtrend and make the potential of 1.35 real. We have doubts for a multiplicity of reasons, not least being the glass ceiling at 1.335 thanks to movements since mid 2016 and The Brexit vote. Since then, the relationship appears to be pivoting above and below this horizontal trend line with more time spent below, casting considerable doubt on its future potentials.
In plain English, the pairing only deserves real optimism if above 1.335, something which currently looks unlikely.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:14:53PM |
BRENT |
63 |
61.25 |
60.97 |
60.23 |
62.38 |
63.19 |
63.875 |
64.75 |
61.69 |
Shambles |
|
10:17:02PM |
GOLD |
1468.6 | |||||||||
|
10:19:05PM |
FTSE |
7314.61 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:24:28PM |
FRANCE |
5937.2 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:26:31PM |
GERMANY |
13241 |
13170 |
13145.5 |
13100 |
13246 |
13266 |
13294 |
13340 |
13171 | |
|
10:28:54PM |
US500 |
3119.67 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:33:27PM |
DOW |
27998.8 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:35:20PM |
NASDAQ |
8315.74 |
Success | ||||||||
|
10:38:22PM |
JAPAN |
23360 |
Success |
