Trends And Targets

#Brent #CAC40 Judging by some emails, internet chatroom gossips are suggesting an expectation of “something” happening here. We need to stress, we’ve only been asked to review the numbers against this, not to check any fundamentals or whatever. Fridays drop was certainly scary, giving considerable food for thought.

Firstly, we calculated a logical bottom against this at 696p. It closed Friday at 700p, so no immediate reason for panic, aside from the important detail the share price actually moved below 696p during the session. It did so with a spike downward at 4pm, almost like the market was snatching a “sell order” prior to movement in the other direction! There is now some fairly serious danger, should the share now trade below 678p as it enters a zone where the Big Picture calculates with an initial target of 522, followed by a logical bottom of 6.5p. Visually, this is quite absurd, made possible by the massive drop last December.

However, the share DID NOT close below 696p, so we’re hopeful some sort of bounce is coming.

Near term, any excuse to better 806p calculates with an initial ambition of 871p, a fairly sedate ambition but worthy of attention is the price manages above such a level. Our secondary calculates at 1162p but realistically, if positive news is involved, it could accelerate pretty swiftly to 1527p. This is a heck of a jump, made possible by the severity of the shares reversals.

Our suspicion is some sort of rebound is expected anytime now. Here’s hoping!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
3:28:22PM	BRENT	54.52	54.46	54.215	53.42	55.25	55.48	55.74	56.23	54.6
3:31:18PM	GOLD	1570.8									‘cess
4:09:22PM	FTSE	7446.24									‘cess
4:11:04PM	FRANCE	6008.5	5997	5984.5	5963	6031	6044	6049	6067	6011
4:13:53PM	GERMANY	13466.55									Success
4:15:54PM	US500	3324.67									‘cess
4:19:44PM	DOW	29083.2									Success
4:21:40PM	NASDAQ	9392
4:23:59PM	JAPAN	23674

 

7/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7466 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,535,596,145 a change of 5.4%

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

#FTSE #Gold #DOW ‘The Week The World Didn’t End’ would best describe February’s first few days. Brexit day came, flags were shuffled, nothing happened, and the band played on. The FTSE appears to have noticed this, now it’s poised for some gains in the days ahead. At least, we think so.

Our favored refrain, ‘if it were a share’ is especially valid at present, recent movements presenting a pretty strong argument in favour of a cycle commencing up to almost 7,900 points.

Of course, there’s a problem thanks to movement of the last week suggesting a stutter around the 7,700 level. Visually, this presents a slight problem, matching the high of mid January, thus perfectly able to cause some hesitation. However, achieving the 7,700 plateau would also break the downtrend since May 2018, creating a situation where positive market sentiment will find growth hard to restrain.

Hopefully all politicians keep quiet, the Coronavirus drama fades out, and newspaper headline writers start to behave responsibly, especially the pair of muppets who appear on Sky’s Newspaper review program!

Near term, FTSE strength exceeding 7534 points looks capable of a rise to an initial 7588 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7605 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7485 points.

The other side of the coin will be movement below 7470 points, risking reversal to 7435 points initially. If broken, secondary is a bottom (hopefully) at 7407 points. If triggered, tightest stop is at 7521 points.

Our inclination is toward optimism, the prospect of a lazy weekend perhaps fuelling gullibility levels…

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:05PM	BRENT	55.21	54.64	54.215		55.47	56.6	57.415		55.53	‘cess
10:15:15PM	GOLD	1567	1554	1548.5		1563	1569	1571		1556	‘cess
10:19:24PM	FTSE	7519.91	7467	7453.5		7520	7536	7585.25		7481
10:22:10PM	FRANCE	6040	6005	5995.5		6043	6049	6065		6012	‘cess
10:24:48PM	GERMANY	13586	13527	13498.5		13576	13602	13630		13532	‘cess
10:27:30PM	US500	3350.04	3333	3321.5		3351	3357	3361		3333	Success
10:30:27PM	DOW	29399.6	29298	29234		29450	29450	29556		29300	‘cess
10:31:54PM	NASDAQ	9455.24	9353	9318		9428	9456	9486.5		9380
10:34:31PM	JAPAN	23987	23664	23548.5		23780	23997	24028		23848	Success

 

6/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7504 points. Change of 0.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,200,545,970 a change of -22.21%

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

#France #SP500 A bunch of emails asked about Novacyt, a company we’ve never come across. A glance at their website gave a pretty solid reason for the interest, “Coronavirus Test” and “infectious disease products” mentioned on their homepage.

The company certainly sound like they may be in the right place at the right time, certainly as far as folk trading shares listed on the AIM are concerned. With media ensuring fear is kept at absurd levels, the share price is not going to need enthusiastic fanboys spamming internet discussion forums about the potentials of their products.

From our perspective, we obviously suggest anyone interested take a hard look at the company and their product range, along with taking cognisance this is an AIM listing, perfectly capable of irrational behaviour in every direction.

At present, it’s trading around 36p, needing above 57p to confirm the potential of movement up to an initial tame 66p. To be fair, even above 48p shall make us sit up and take interest, this giving an early sign the immediate reversal cycle has bottomed. If 66p is exceeded, things get a lot more interesting as our secondary is at 92p, along with a need to review the tea leaves again.

Equally, we can also mention the absolute highest we can compute is at 124p. But if they’ve indeed discovered the AIM equivalent of a goose, golden eggs, etc, there is absolutely nothing stopping it going higher.

The immediate reversal cycle, while probably scaring a lot of private AIM traders, should hopefully bottom anytime soon before the 34p level, if our calculations are correct. We’re also showing a danger level at 31.5p, movement below this point implying the real risk of reversal to 19p. We cannot calculate below such a level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:05:25PM	BRENT	55.65									‘cess
10:06:50PM	GOLD	1556.82
10:09:31PM	FTSE	7502.52									Success
10:12:03PM	FRANCE	5993.5	5943	5920	5892	5970	6004	6022.75	6060	5943	Success
10:30:10PM	GERMANY	13511									Success
10:32:23PM	US500	3338.02	3313	3302.5	3290	3329	3340	3347	3357	3313	Success
10:35:40PM	DOW	29316									Success
10:38:04PM	NASDAQ	9382									Success
10:40:16PM	JAPAN	23697									Success

 

 

5/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7482 points. Change of 0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,970,542,064 a change of 19.14%

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

#FTSE #DOW For a while, it was impossible to visit a ‘Financial’ page without being bombarded with adverts for #Plus500, promoting themselves as the UK’s leading CFD Broker. Thankfully, they also mention 76% of retail investors lose money, when trading with them. This piece of legality sometimes shocks us, when we read how high the percentage can get against some of the market place names.

The important thing about their share price is the fascinating downtrend since 2018. In mid January of this year, the share exceeded this trend, slavishly pole dancing down the line as if waiting for an excuse to break free. Perhaps the share price is awaiting company news, perhaps simply the right market conditions but invariably, when we see this sort of thing, any movement (unfortunately both UP or DOWN) tends be fast and sharp.

Presently trading around 910p, the price needs exceed 939p to trigger movement to 999p apparently. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 1150p. For the longer term, closure above 1150p is liable to prove extremely significant, taking the price into a region where 1518p and beyond become available, covering the naughty-step gap inflicted a year ago for whatever reason.

Of course, we always prefer inflict a little misery (or a reality check) and Plus 500 have an absolute cracker. The share price needs reverse below 770p to enter a region where reversal to 361p becomes possible. If broken, bottom calculates at 7.4p!

For now, we’re pretending optimism, thanks to recent price movements.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:44:28PM	BRENT	53.81
10:48:21PM	GOLD	1553.63									Success
10:50:44PM	FTSE	7431.84	7345	7323	7284	7373	7441	7464.75	7498	7370	Success
10:52:45PM	FRANCE	5920									Success
10:55:43PM	GERMANY	13306.67									Shambles
10:57:36PM	US500	3302.52									Success
11:00:39PM	DOW	28833	28577	28562	28448	28733	28903	29106	29324	28750	Success
11:04:05PM	NASDAQ	9346									Success
11:06:41PM	JAPAN	23371									Success

4/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7439 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,690,102,462 a change of 18.21%

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

#Gold #Nasdaq It’s always easy to be scathing about supermarkets, purveyors of dreadful shopping environments, early adopters of robots to replace humans (unmanned checkouts). But #Morrisons managed redeem themselves to the writer by selling something thought to be gone forever. Was it a Marathon Bar?

Since diagnosis with Coeliac Disease back in 2004, simple things like Croissants vanished from the diet. Eating habits which had previously been in full colour immediate changed to shades of grey. In the years since, ‘gluten’ has become an issue, suddenly bringing things like Nan Bread back to the table. Innocently appearing in the “Gluten Free” section of our local Morrisons, packets of 2 Croissant looked appealing and demanded their purchase.

The sheer joy of watching the FTSE open on Monday, armed with a Latte and 2 hot Croissant, prompted an effort to be generous with a review of Morrison’ share price. If they could give me something missed for 16 years, the least I can do is propose some good news for their shares.

Despite making the effort to sound encouraging, the reality is less than encouraging, a bit like Warbitons Gluten Free Bread, looking great but packed with other allergens.

The immediate situation for Morrison is dodgy, looking very like weakness now below 180p shall bring reversal to an initial 175p. If (or rather, when) broken, it should bottom and hopefully bounce at 165p. It’s the 165p level where extreme care needs taken. This will represent the share price achieving a new “lower low”, breaking the uptrend since 2015 and in the process, taking the price below the lowest part of that particular cycle.

If, on the initial surge down to 165p, the price manages below such a level, any bounce risks being short lived as the ruling expectation becomes 140p. At this level, we’d hope for a real rebound. Even visually, given the match with the low of 2015, it will make sense to anticipate a recoil if 140p makes itself known.

To escape this toxic mess, Morrison price needs exceed 197p currently, entering a zone where an initial 210 makes sense with secondary, if bettered, a very promising 228p.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:59PM	BRENT	54.12
10:04:53PM	GOLD	1577.07	1569	1567	1562	1579	1581	1584.5	1590	1573	‘cess
10:07:05PM	FTSE	7327.96
10:08:58PM	FRANCE	5822.2
10:11:01PM	GERMANY	13019.98									‘cess
10:14:33PM	US500	3247.22
10:17:08PM	DOW	28428									‘cess
10:22:17PM	NASDAQ	9099.37	9019	8970	8910	9073	9128	9149	9212	9064
10:24:49PM	JAPAN	22877									Success

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

#Brent #DAX At some point in a blokes life, daughter buys slippers for Xmas. She thinks it funny, he think them ridiculous but wears ’em, the result surprisingly comfortable. But a sole detaches one evening, a problem easily fixed with superglue. Fast forward to 3am, Europe and the US markets closed, Asia ended, finally it’s time for bed, the trading week has finished.

Finding the right-hand slipper is now glued to sock which is glued to skin proved utterly ridiculous, while hopping around the bedroom, trying to be discrete and avoid waking wife. A memory of an old ‘Andy Cap’ cartoon punch-line, “Never seen anyone try and take their trousers off over their head” emerges, along with a fit of the giggles. A true ‘you had to be there moment’ which thankfully lacked witnesses.

Five minutes later, wife proved quite acidic when using nail varnish remover to separate slipper, a sock, from a foot. Along with questioning why I’d felt it so important to stay up late, ‘just’ to watch the markets. To be honest, Asia wasn’t even open and I’d been watching something called “Star Trek:Picard”. Like slippers, surprisingly good.

In case no-one noticed, the world ended when the FTSE closed on Friday. If it were a share, we’d project it heading to around 6,600 eventually. Software suggests weakness now below 275 should reach an initial 7,090 with secondary, when broken, at 6,570. But really, we should now hope bottom somewhere in the 6,600 region.

In our earlier “FTSE for FRIDAY”, we’d speculated on a bottom of 7,280. The UK market closed the week at 7,279,65 points. (Or 7,286 after clearing by 5pm) But regardless, it closed at a calculated drop level.

Perhaps this means the 4 Horsemen are not galloping toward us as we rather doubt closing 0.35 of a point below our drop target  gives reason to panic. It was only 0.004% wrong, well within our bounds of competence. In fact, we rather suspect if anything is galloping toward the market, it’s a rebound.

Should this ‘odour of rodent’ prove correct, the UK market need only exceed 7,328 to enter a cycle to an 7,400 points. If bettered, secondary is up at 7,508 points where we need review the tea leaves quite urgently, due to 200 point gains calculating as possible.

Life just got interesting!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:37:44PM	BRENT	56.64	55.75	51.425	43.62	62.8	57.77	58.195	58.96	56.3	‘cess
5:40:18PM	GOLD	1589.75									‘cess
5:49:31PM	FTSE	7265.58									Success
5:52:43PM	FRANCE	5782									Success
10:15:30PM	GERMANY	12944	12919	12853	12689	13011	13031	13075	13139	12921	Success
10:17:51PM	US500	3229.17									Success
10:23:11PM	DOW	28284.2									Success
10:25:48PM	NASDAQ	9009.12									Success
10:29:11PM	JAPAN	22697									‘cess

 

 

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

#FTSE #DAX By any standards, this has been a terrible week. Both dogs AND both cats decided to celebrate this final last week of European unity by throwing up, the dogs at least alerting us, the cats choosing the Forex Model and doing it without any warning.

Who knew both types of animal could suffer their own version of ‘Winter Vomiting Bug’?

But once we’d opted to make a group booking at the Vets, the diagnosis was straightforward, if somewhat expensive. Apparently there was something doing the rounds locally, the Vets Practice gifted unusually high levels of January income as domestic pets enacted their own post-Xmas weight loss regime.

One amusing result following ‘Vet day’ has been angry cat & cat-hating dog deciding to bury their differences, an event which has taken nearly two years.

Similarly, this week the FTSE felt like it’s had a similar complaint to the animals, one day feeling okay, the next utterly foul. We’ve a vague hope, similar to our household pets, it shall make recovery with a ‘so what was bothering you’ action.

Anytime now would be good!

The market closed Thursday in a position where it becomes relatively easy to extrapolate a reversal cycle to 6,700 points. If broken, secondary calculates at a “must bounce” bottom of 6,400 points. If we opt draw lines on charts, the current scenario allows this, the market needing above 7,460 to cancel the concept. Of course, as usual, we’ve got a ‘However’.

Brexit has never happened before, so there’s no playbook telling us what to expect. In fact, the reality of an 11 month exit period is liable to make 2020 interesting, as rumour vs reality should constantly happen while negotiations progress.

In addition, the low experienced on Thursday was a point at which we’d ordinarily hope for a rebound, so we’re going to look for miracle recovery signs for the FTSE near term. The UK Market, unlike one of the Golden Retrievers, is unlikely to try climb inside the dishwasher, a game she plays when her appetite is normal. But should the FTSE manage above a near term 7,402 points, it calculates with an initial ambition at 7,438 points.

If above this level, further computations return 7,490 as a target level. We’re not confident about such a number, due to the immediate downtrend being at 7,460 and almost certainly capable of provoking hesitation in movement.

Now we’ve spent time pretending optimism, what happens if the FTSE makes its way below 7,357 points? Initially we are looking at reversal to 7,309 points with secondary, if broken, down at 7,280 points. As always, beware a Spike Down at the market open on Friday morning as such will doubtless be an indication of a recovery day ahead!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:37PM	BRENT	58.12	57.8	57.285		58.4	58.37	58.615		57.34	Success
10:26:49PM	GOLD	1575.16	1572	1567.5		1578	1584	1585.5		1576	‘cess
10:29:33PM	FTSE	7425	7378	7353		7457	7456	7483.5		7400	Success
10:31:24PM	FRANCE	5911.2	5857	5841.5		5912	5912	5932.5		5860	Success
10:33:39PM	GERMANY	13274	13116	13073		13176	13282	13339.5		13183	Success
10:37:13PM	US500	3290.92	3269	3257		3278	3298	3316		3269	Success
10:42:53PM	DOW	28835.4	28555	28435.5		28714	28876	28919.25		28780	Success
10:46:27PM	NASDAQ	9220.04	9100	9071.5		9133	9234	9263		9144	Success
10:49:08PM	JAPAN	23209	22911	22816.5		23015	23241	23300		23090	Success

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%