Sirius Minerals 5/03/2020

#DOW #SP500 When we last reviewed #Sirius (link), we gave criteria for a lift to 5p. Thankfully, the share price has not only reached this level but exceeded it, suggesting a new game is afoot. The share price has been very obviously lifted above the immediate downtrend, hinting the market has plans for the future.

It appears, near term above 5.5p should bring continued recovery toward an initial 6.8p. Beyond such a level, things get more than a little vague and we suspect moves shall depend on news flow, along with overall market conditions. Our secondary above 6.8 calculates at 7.6p but, thanks to the circled gaps, the share price could easily accelerate to 8.7p instead.

We’re a little surprised at our 3rd level target of 8.7p as it doesn’t even come close to covering the gap from 10p in September last year. Usually, the implication is we should expect some volatility as the price recovers, ideally banking sufficient energy for some longer term price growth.

The other side of the coin is at 5p currently. Any move capable of bringing Sirius below the Grey trendline would prove a poor show, hinting the forced upward movement has been a mistake. Visually the chances of this are doubtful unless the company has some further bad news they intend release. A shuffle below this trend risks real trouble, taking the price into a zone where 1.4p presents as a “fingers crossed” bottom, thanks to the ultimate drop target residing at an impossible -17p!

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:35:32PM

BRENT

51.59

               

10:39:26PM

GOLD

1637.71

               

10:41:33PM

FTSE

6840.77

               

Success

10:43:33PM

FRANCE

5531.5

               

10:45:55PM

GERMANY

12218.45

               

Success

10:50:13PM

NASDAQ

8896.3

               

Success

10:52:13PM

US500

3113.82

3031

2992.5

2946

3077

3133

3151.75

3177

3082

‘cess

10:58:53PM

DOW

26969

26351

26161.5

25850

26650

27095

27192.25

27405

26799

Success

11:01:02PM

JAPAN

21432

               

 

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

Eddie Stobart 4/03/2020

#FTSE #Nasdaq We try and limit ourselves to one day a week, when it comes to answering email requests. Thankfully, recently relisted #Stobart feature strongly in requests this week, making the choice easy. Sometimes, we suspect Lynn Bowles of Radio2 Ken Bruce Show fame must shoulder some of the blame for Stobarts decline!

When, after 18 years, Lynn Bowles stopped her traffic reports on Radio 2 in March 2018, a decline of Stobarts share price followed shortly thereafter, a company often mentioned as their drivers seemed to be a great source of her live traffic information. As the chart shows, when the famous banter between Ken Bruce and Lynn Bowles ended, the logistics company share price started a painful downhill road. Rather more probably the market knew better.

Absolute bottom against this share calculates down at 2p, this being the level we cannot calculate below. In fact, some concern will be justified with anything now below 6.8 as this shall be regarded as early warning for a further decline.

Thankfully, it’s easier to be slightly optimistic against the share as there’s a chance last weeks 4.5p following relisting will be deemed “close enough” to bottom to justify a proper bounce. Presently, the share price needs trade above 15p to calculate with an initial recovery target of 22p. If exceeded, our secondary ambition works out at 27p. Unfortunately neither target comes close to covering the gap from 71p, nor troubling the long term Blue downtrend. However, it will be worth watching if the market finds any reason to exceed 27p in the weeks and months ahead. To be blunt, any such movement will tend suggest the drop was overcooked, giving considerable hope the market intends force the price upward again.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:33:52PM

BRENT

51.75

50.69

             

‘cess

10:36:33PM

GOLD

1641.59

1620

             

Success

10:41:04PM

FTSE

6626

6605

6538.5

6435

6704

6723

6779.25

6804

6640

‘cess

10:45:13PM

FRANCE

5322

               

‘cess

10:47:33PM

GERMANY

11780.18

               

Sorry

10:50:04PM

US500

2991.52

               

Success

11:06:53PM

DOW

25808

               

‘cess

11:09:04PM

NASDAQ

8531

8509

8353

8137

8734

8792

8837

8943

8561

Shambles

11:16:53PM

JAPAN

20823

               

 

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

Barclays PLC (LSE:BARC) & DOW 3/03/2020

#Gold #SP500 Completing our monthly wade into the sewer which is the retail banks, Barclays managed flush itself quite thoroughly down the plughole. At the end of January, (link here) we gave a fairly unambiguous outlook as shown in the image below.

Hey, chart goes here

Visually, there’s some hope for a rebound anytime soon as the price challenges the Red uptrend since 2009. At present, any rebound needs exceed 158p to give some slight hope as this calculates with the potential of recovery to 166p. If beaten, our secondary works out at 185p, visually pretty impressive but failing (currently) to exceed Blue and scurry into safety for the longer term.

What happens if the share price now withers below 139p?

Initially we’re looking at weakness to 135p but should such a point break, life becomes pretty dangerous for Barclays with the potential of 90p making itself known as secondary.

Thankfully we’re keeping things brief tonight (Monday) as we’ve been mesmerised by the US markets during their final 90 minutes of trade. Witnessing the DOW achieve a 5.1% rise was truly unusual, suggesting recent panic drops have been exaggerated, resulting in a situation where some strong recovery across the markets can be hoped for. In the case of the DOW, allegedly moves now above 26,750 should prove capable of an 1,100 point rise!

Unless, of course, someone sneezes.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:27:14PM

BRENT

52.8

               

Success

10:28:41PM

GOLD

1589.96

1583

1578

1567

1597

1611

1619

1627

1595

‘cess

10:32:32PM

FTSE

6717.91

               

10:34:41PM

FRANCE

5407.2

               

Shambles

10:38:25PM

GERMANY

11999.04

               

Shambles

10:47:42PM

US500

3078.27

2989

2954

2910

3040

3086

3103.25

3139

3031

Success

10:52:47PM

DOW

26607.7

               

Success

10:54:56PM

NASDAQ

8833

               

Success

10:56:50PM

JAPAN

21484

               

‘cess

 

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

 

Lloyds Bank 2/03/2020

#BRENT #DAX Retail bank prices behave like a cosmic practical joke. When we reviewed Lloyds in January (link), we warned we’d need review the tea leaves again if the price managed below 48p. During Fridays traumatic session, Lloyds achieved 47.89p, thus forcing us to do some work!

At first glance, Lloyds share price looks pretty stuffed and yes, weakness now below 47.8p will be regarded as entering a cycle down to an initial 42.5 with secondary, when broken, at a bottom hopefully of 31p. However, there’s a bit of a wrinkle with this argument and it’s shown with the Closing Price insert on the chart.

It could prove to be quite important the market ensured Lloyds Bank share price did not close below the trend, instead effectively closing at Red, hinting at a coming rebound.

This being the case, it’s perhaps important to point out the glaringly obvious. Until such time Lloyds share price recovers above Blue, we dare not take any recovery seriously. At present, this particular stumbling block resides at 62p.

Near term, above 53.3p looks capable of bringing an initial 56.25p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 59.7p and visually collides with a glass ceiling which appears to have formed just below the 60p level this year. There’s certainly a strong argument favouring movement above 59.7p being taken as early warning for a future attempt at the banks share price breaking above Blue, hopefully to enjoy some time in the sun.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

4:00:19PM

BRENT

50.1

48.9

47.74

46.44

50.25

50.93

51.45

52.3

49.5

Success

4:24:37PM

GOLD

1586

               

Success

5:03:45PM

FTSE

6709.28

               

‘cess

5:07:33PM

FRANCE

5333.5

               

Success

5:25:18PM

GERMANY

12035.78

11716

11475

11393

11920

12059

12152.5

12298

11932

Success

5:29:28PM

US500

2989

               

‘cess

5:34:15PM

DOW

25690

               

Success

5:37:45PM

NASDAQ

8545.37

               

‘cess

5:40:43PM

JAPAN

21137

               

Success

 

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

FTSE Friday 28/02/2020

#FTSE #Gold A week ago, we thought we risked being panic merchants by giving criteria postulating an early warning scenario for a FTSE drop to 5,850 points. Given the UK index has managed lose nearly 700 points, it has dragged itself into a region where 5,850 is no longer such a daft idea. But crucially, all we have seen is early warning. We have yet to witness, (from our perspective) confirmation.

In fact, if we drag out the chart from the market plunge of from Oct 2008 until Mar 2009 and get busy with a Red crayon, the market has yet to break through the final uptrend, the one which will suggest the recovery (?) from the lows of 2009 has failed. Unfortunately, the market is getting close and closure below 6,700 will tend tick a fairly major box for some troubled times ahead. Such a scenario allows continued eventual reversal to 6,420 and a deluxe ticket into the Land of Lower Lows.

If 6,420 makes an appearance, we shall be presenting a drop target below such a level at 5,850 points. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom (hopefully) of 5,260 points. Alas, there is an unfortunate aspect to such a level which allows calculation of a 3rd level. It’s a market bottom, ultimately, at 3,655. Rather scary to note this is marginally higher than the low of 2009.

In summary, it’s early days, despite how utterly foul the last few sessions have proven. Perhaps it’s also worth noting drops this severe can also reverse with similar strength, if conditions prove to change. As winter draws to a close, it’s easy to suspect (hope) a respiratory virus shall find it difficult to sustain dominance of headlines?

Hey, chart goes here

Near term, for the FTSE for FRIDAY, we shall be watching Japan through the night, hoping it ends positive. If it does, this will send a pretty strong signal Europe and the US should expect a respite on Friday. Near term, above 6,848 points is supposed to bring recovery to an initial 6,924 points. If exceeded, secondary works out at 6,964 points though, realistically, any positive sentiment could easily drive the market toward 7,106 points. If triggered, the tightest stop needs be just under Thursdays low of 6729 points.

Alternately, weakness now below 6729 allows reversal to an initial 6,580. If broken, secondary is at 6,455.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:22:35PM

BRENT

50.89

50.38

49.895

 

51.8

52.46

53.07

 

50.96

‘cess

10:24:31PM

GOLD

1645.56

1634.6

1626.5

 

1649

1660.38

1670.1

 

1641

10:35:04PM

FTSE

6644.63

6614

6541

 

6720

6846

6877

 

6796

Success

10:38:22PM

FRANCE

5391

5383

5319

 

5492

5511

5545

 

5457

Success

10:43:27PM

GERMANY

12083.5

12032

11891

 

12230

12170

12269

 

12042

‘cess

10:50:42PM

US500

2950.47

2944

2917

 

3004

3004

3023.5

 

2954

Success

10:57:08PM

DOW

25538.5

25441

25415

 

25745

25745

25820.5

 

25540

Success

11:01:41PM

NASDAQ

8354.62

8327

8153

 

8470

8470

8483

 

8370

Success

11:06:24PM

JAPAN

21158

21138

21097

 

21321

21740

22315.5

 

21540

Success

 

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

Germany, The Dax 27/02/2020

#Brent #US500 Life’s a funny old thing. When we last reviewed Germany back in October (link) we gave criteria defining 13,650 as a major point of interest for the index, something the market achieved and bettered during February. The odd thing, when we give these secondary targets, we tend anticipate a bit of hesitation at the price level, generally some volatility or stutters.

The DAX, of course, paid lip service to the concept of hesitation, choosing instead to fall by 1,200 points over three sessions. Some say it was something to do with pandemic fears and nothing at all to do with our 13,650 level…

In reality, our price levels generally justify a little volatility and (unless some positive or negative news makes itself known) the volatility will be fairly minor. We saw this today with the FTSE as our initial target level was 6999 points. As the chart below highlights, the index hit our initial target, bounced around above and below for a while, then on the 3rd break upward, continued to our secondary target. This tends be the important thing with price levels. Mostly they pass virtually un-noticed unless someone throws a cat among the pigeons.

Hey, chart goes here

Unfortunately, the DAX found itself primed for a ruddy great cat incident!

The situation with Germany is now a little strange. If we concentrate on reversal potentials, it appears weakness next below 12,368 should attack a bottom of 12,152 and hopefully generate a bounce. We actually have some doubts, thanks to the effort employed on Wednesday to force a bounce. It almost felt like “they” didn’t want the market to fall further.

Instead, the immediate situation suggests recovery above 12,850 should bring a visit to 13,034 next. If bettered, we’d regard it entering a cycle back up to 13,650 as secondary again, utterly confusing us, why is this level so important?

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:27:45PM

BRENT

52.85

52.38

52.135

49.63

54.7

54.82

55.86

57.02

53.94

Success

10:29:38PM

GOLD

1641.62

               

10:34:29PM

FTSE

6907.24

               

Shambles

10:40:31PM

FRANCE

5600.2

               

Shambles

10:43:52PM

GERMANY

12542

               

Success

10:45:45PM

US500

3102.07

3090

3071

3034

3135

3154

3169

3193

3121

Shambles

10:48:59PM

DOW

26872.7

               

Success

10:51:25PM

NASDAQ

8826.79

               

‘cess

10:53:43PM

JAPAN

22191

               

‘cess

 

 

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

Moderna & Cocrystal Pharma 26/02/2020

#Nasdaq #SP500 With a few UK stocks going ballistic due to China Virus activity, a glance at the US highlights a couple of shares enjoying time in the medical spotlight. #Moderna & #Cocrystal both deserve some examination, along with a reminder prices which go up fast can equally reverse with greater brutality.

In plain English, we’re focused on the numbers but remember checking out some fundamentals makes a lot of sense.

Moderna, at time of writing 24.5, has been quite encouraging, the share price needing trading beyond 26.6 dollars to enter a near term cycle to 29.29 dollars. If bettered, secondary calculates at 31.03 dollars though, to be fair, any enthusiastic publicity feels capable of driving the price to 36 dollars. We cannot calculate higher.

Visually, the proximity of our initial two target levels tends suggest the possibility of some hesitation around the 30 dollar mark. Any reversal needs break RED (currently 18) on the chart to justify hysterics, along with the risk of reversal to 9.95 and hopefully a rebound.

Hey, chart goes here

Cocrystal Pharma, presently 2.15, looks very capable of some excitement with trades now above 2.5 dollars as growth to an initial 3.69 appears possible. In the event this level is exceeded, our secondary calculates at an amazing (and therefore questionable) 5.46. Our in-house cautious nature makes us hesitant, when describing a scenario allowing a price to more than double but such is the nature of the current panic, it’d be churlish not to admit this possibility.

The price would require to slip below Blue, presently 1.45, to suggest an alternative investment in running shoes!

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:33:22PM

BRENT

54.28

               

‘cess

9:35:59PM

GOLD

1635.07

               

Success

9:41:41PM

FTSE

6951.4

               

Success

9:50:11PM

FRANCE

5603.7

               

Shambles

10:29:52PM

GERMANY

12649

               

Success

10:34:34PM

US500

3135.02

3132

3123

3032

3157

3167

3186

3196

3122

Success

10:38:13PM

DOW

27170

               

Success

10:42:30PM

NASDAQ

8858

8802

8740

8374

8930

8929

9004.5

9072

8836

Success

10:49:11PM

JAPAN

22138

               

Shambles

 

 

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%