Sterling vs US Dollar on a sticky wicket?


It used to be the case, at this time of year, lots of folk asked about how Sterling was looking against the Dollar & Euro. This year, despite a plethora of TV adverts, we’ve not had a single email asking our thoughts on currency and now, GBP vs USD is looking a bit of a disaster. Of course, the term “disaster” can be subjective, such as happened today with a garden shed.


Sometimes, no matter how ridiculous it paints the writer, some stories are simply too good and shouldn’t be kept secret…

A fact about staying in the Scottish Highlands in the need to become fairly self sufficient. Folk living in civilisation find it easy to make a call and get a bloke round to do a job. Whereas in the Highlands, it’s never that easy for reasons which are fairly understandable. Just getting someone to quote for a job can prove difficult, due to reason of the distance needing travelled. Often it’s the case where a vague promise of “dropping by next time working in the area” is the best you’ll get. Worse, someone will turn up (always an hour late, that’s a big rule) and discover they’ve the wrong parts. This means waiting till they next catch a ferry to whatever supplier on the mainland and the inevitable delay in rescheduling the job. On the bright side, folk are pleasant, easy going, and the Scottish word for ‘Mañana’ is ‘Argyll’.

The foregoing is an explanation for why I managed to glue myself onto a shed, at the top of a ladder, above a stream. And also start a small forest fire.

Steel roofed sheds have an annoying feature. Condensation forms under the roof in surprising quantity, ensuring our little tractor and garden tools were constantly soaked. We decided the easiest method of stopping condensation was to cover the roof with old fashioned roofing felt. Obviously it couldn’t be nailed on but there’s a product called Roofing Adhesive, a product thicker than treacle and also blacker than black. The accessible part of the roof was coated with the adhesive and 3 metres of felt cheerfully glued itself in place. But the back half of the roof looked quite problematic, my wife offering an easy solution.

“Why not treat the roofing felt like wallpaper? Coat the non-gritty side with the adhesive, fold it on itself, prop the ladders at the back of the shed and just unfold it, covering the roof.”

It all seemed simple, when talking in the kitchen. At the top of the ladders, trying to unfold the roofing felt, a gust of wind ensured it wrapped around the ladders, myself, and my arms. I was trapped, the ladders feeling like they wanted to fall backward into the stream 2 metres below the base of the ladder. Calling for help was a non-starter, knowing my wife was wearing earphones while pretending to be busy in the kitchen. Eventually the ladders felt sufficiently stable to allow myself to use my weight to tear the roofing felt apart and escape to ground level, where my walking stick awaited, thanks to recovering from a knee operation. Oops.

Needless to say, once my wife stopped giggling, she popped out to buy more White Spirit as the half litre bottle was not going to clean my arms, my face, nor my hair. All my clothing went directly onto the garden bonfire, creating havoc – but that’s another story. Roofing Felt adhesive is Highly Flammable and burns quite energetically!

She also bumped into a bloke at the hardware store and he’s promised to visit on Friday and complete the job…


As for Sterling vs the US Dollar, as mentioned, things are looking a bit of a disaster. The immediate situation suggests weakness continuing below 1.2500 risks an attempt at 1.2210 and hopefully a bounce. We’re not the only people capable of drawing a Red line in crayon since the lows of 1985 and anticipate achieving such a target level will be judged as sufficient to provoke a rebound. Unfortunately, it may prove worth remembering the Covid-19 drop of March 2020 proved the Red line can be broken. As a result, we’d advocate caution if 1.2210 breaks as our secondary calculates down at 1.1721, a level where the currency pairing almost must bounce.

To get out of trouble, the relationship needs exceed 1.2700 as this should provide early warning for surprise recovery to 1.3047 initially. Visually there’s a heck of an argument suggesting hesitation at such a level, due to movements during March and early April. Our longer term secondary, if 1.3047 is exceeded, works out at 1.3342.



Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:57:59PM BRENT 104.82
10:59:53PM GOLD 1886.18 1880 1877 1866 1891 1911 1920 1933 1899 ‘cess
11:02:21PM FTSE 7459.62
11:07:15PM FRANCE 6427.3 ‘cess
11:09:14PM GERMANY 13851.68
11:11:09PM US500 4219.92
11:13:40PM DOW 33383 Shambles
11:17:47PM NASDAQ 13177 12924 12798 12644 13112 13260 13328 13505 13084 ‘cess

27/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7425 points. Change of 0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,934,236,931 a change of -7.56%
26/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7386 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,501,270,625 a change of 7.74%
25/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7380 points. Change of -1.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,962,693,363 a change of 2.9%
22/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7521 points. Change of -1.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,766,539,663 a change of -21.54%
21/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7627 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,624,086,669 a change of 11.51%
20/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7629 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,734,053,627 a change of 0%
19/04/2022 FTSE Closed at 7601 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,126,164,773 a change of 0%

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…

Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares

Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:AFC AFC Energy** **LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:AVCT Avacta** **LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY** **LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs** **LSE:CCL Carnival** **LSE:EME Empyrean** **LSE:HL. Hargreaves Lansdown** **LSE:IQE IQE** **LSE:ITV ITV** **LSE:JET Just Eat** **LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer** **LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **


Updated charts published on : AFC Energy, Asos, Avacta, BALFOUR BEATTY, Barrett Devs, Carnival, Empyrean, Hargreaves Lansdown, IQE, ITV, Just Eat, Marks and Spencer, Ocado Plc, Rolls Royce, Taylor Wimpey,

LSE:AFC AFC Energy Close Mid-Price: 32.92 Percentage Change: -3.18% Day High: 34.58 Day Low: 32.34

If AFC Energy experiences continued weakness below 32.34, it will invaria ……..

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LSE:ASC Asos Close Mid-Price: 1317 Percentage Change: -1.27% Day High: 1353 Day Low: 1315

In the event Asos experiences weakness below 1315 it calculates with a dr ……..

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LSE:AVCT Avacta Close Mid-Price: 119 Percentage Change: -9.85% Day High: 133.5 Day Low: 119

In the event of Avacta enjoying further trades beyond 143.5, the share sho ……..

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LSE:BBY BALFOUR BEATTY Close Mid-Price: 245 Percentage Change: -1.29% Day High: 249.2 Day Low: 243.4

Weakness on BALFOUR BEATTY below 243.4 will invariably lead to 240 with s ……..

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LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs Close Mid-Price: 490.6 Percentage Change: -3.46% Day High: 510.6 Day Low: 491.3

If Barrett Devs experiences continued weakness below 491.3, it will invar ……..

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LSE:CCL Carnival Close Mid-Price: 1260 Percentage Change: -1.87% Day High: 1283.5 Day Low: 1237.5

In the event Carnival experiences weakness below 1237.5 it calculates wit ……..

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LSE:EME Empyrean Close Mid-Price: 2.55 Percentage Change: -70.69% Day High: 2.9 Day Low: 1.8

This is not good. It’s trading in a zone where we cannot calculate any for ……..

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LSE:HL. Hargreaves Lansdown Close Mid-Price: 940 Percentage Change: -0.95% Day High: 966.4 Day Low: 936.2

In the event Hargreaves Lansdown experiences weakness below 936.2 it calc ……..

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LSE:IQE IQE Close Mid-Price: 30 Percentage Change: -1.64% Day High: 30.65 Day Low: 29.55

Target met. Weakness on IQE below 29.55p will invariably lead to 27p with ……..

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LSE:ITV ITV Close Mid-Price: 73.16 Percentage Change: -0.79% Day High: 74.24 Day Low: 72.54

Even above 88 should give early hope, calculating with the potential of an ……..

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LSE:JET Just Eat Close Mid-Price: 2032.5 Percentage Change: -2.87% Day High: 2121 Day Low: 1984.4

Continued weakness against JET taking the price below 1984.4 calculates a ……..

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LSE:MKS Marks and Spencer Close Mid-Price: 136.95 Percentage Change: -3.35% Day High: 142.7 Day Low: 135.65

Weakness on Marks and Spencer below 135.65 will invariably lead to 130 wi ……..

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LSE:OCDO Ocado Plc Close Mid-Price: 929.4 Percentage Change: -2.17% Day High: 963.6 Day Low: 913.4

Target met. If Ocado Plc experiences continued weakness below 913.4, it w ……..

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LSE:RR. Rolls Royce Close Mid-Price: 82.38 Percentage Change: -2.06% Day High: 85.77 Day Low: 82.37

Weakness on Rolls Royce below 82.37 will invariably lead to 72 with secon ……..

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LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey Close Mid-Price: 124.85 Percentage Change: -3.03% Day High: 129.85 Day Low: 124.75

If Taylor Wimpey experiences continued weakness below 124.75, it will inv ……..

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*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares.

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