Trends And Targets

#Gold #Nasdaq The headline, the BBC has closed down their Scottish news service, ensuring all news is controlled by London is scary. Thankfully, both Sky and RT appear to be following a different agenda, ensuring reportage of “the lockdown” has more than Derbyshire polices slanted perspective! A gloom laden weekend prompted the thought, not “how low ill the markets go. Instead, will there be markets once this is all over?”

Equally, stories of governments, the world over, printing money to alleviate hardship through these difficult times tends prompt the question; “how will nations cope with such record levels of increased National Debt?” Of course, perhaps a simple solution shall be for governments to simply cancel the added debt they owe themselves if this crisis ever ends. Then again, wasn’t this the behaviour which provoked hyper-inflation in Germany in the years prior to WW2? Maybe if all governments cancel their debt at the same time, the world shall dodge such a risk.

 

It’s proving amusing watching economists tying themselves in knots, trying to predict what will happen once lockdown completes. Given the current situation is completely new, it feels like we are just going to have to wait and see. It’s pretty certain many small businesses will never be able to re-open without eventual debt forgiveness as few are insured for current events, fewer still will have financial reserves to cope with prolonged lockdown.

 

To escape from overthinking immediate events, we’ve taken a look at Wall St and shall comment against it, daily, for the coming week. The Big Picture number on the DOW is at 18,000 points. Essentially, movement below such a level allows for panic, thanks to reversal to 14,000 being pretty likely. Unfortunately, recent moves on the index already risk troubling this level.

Now below 21,450 allows weakness toward an initial 20,392 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 19,643 points. At this level, we need to take a deep breath and steady our hands as we compute the third level, should 19,643 break. It’s down at 17,190 points, obviously breaking the 18,000 trigger and risking really severe reversals.

HOWEVER, there is something worthy of consideration and it’s shown on the chart inset. The DOW broke the uptrend since 2009 and somehow, despite world (and NY) events, has recovered above this important trend. Due to this, allegedly it’s now the case of movement above 22,330 allowing a journey to 23,207 to commence. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 24,415 points.

We’re pretty far from convinced unless some bloke, working in his garden shed in Sheffield, has a big surprise cure to announce.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:56:29PM	BRENT	27.78									Success
8:57:57PM	GOLD	1632.89	1610	1597.5	1582	1630	1644	1661	1715	1609
9:00:09PM	FTSE	5443.97
9:13:50PM	FRANCE	4324									‘cess
9:42:34PM	GERMANY	9550.01
9:43:55PM	US500	2532.77
9:46:36PM	DOW	21551
9:48:45PM	NASDAQ	7575	7565	7504	7369	7688	7820	7874.5	7977	7700
9:50:55PM	JAPAN	18740									‘cess

 

 

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

#FTSE #GOLD Is this how it ends, not with a bang but with a cough? A trip* to the mainland was frightening. Rows of unused Jets at the airport, a Chinese supermarket with staff wearing masks & surgical gloves, a Pet Food supermarket with many empty shelves, roads deserted of traffic, businesses closed everywhere. A usually cheery expedition felt quite scary, especially as neither Tesco nor the Pet Food place issuing staff with protective gear. Meanwhile, the FTSE jumped 2.2% and Wall St managed a 6.4% day!

*Thanks to panic buying, our local town is devoid of 
pet food. Due to NOT panic buying, we were nearly out 
of rice, a staple for my gluten-free life. 
Thai Jasmine rice rocks, you buy a 10kg sack and forget 
about it, thinking it lasts forever! My job during the 
shopping adventure was driver, not allowed to get out 
of the car.

Without a doubt, something stinks, society in paralysis does not gel with buoyant market behaviour. Normally, bad US jobless figures tend to be reflected quite firmly on Wall Street movements. We’d expected the worst with a 10 fold jump in weekly claims. Instead, Wall St celebrated or perhaps, the market opted to react against those with short positions! Obviously, we suspect the latter argument and it’s probable the index shall pay the price in the days ahead.

 

If we suspend disbelief, it’s now the case of movement above 5815 leading to an initial 5900 points. If exceeded, the secondary is at 5950. Importantly, perhaps, we have two very different criteria currently suggesting some volatility at the 5950 level. Above 5950 remains with 6474, an “it was all a bad dream” target level.

 

It was almost reassuring seeing the FTSE rise stumble at the level of the immediate Blue downtrend. It carried a suggestion some sanity remains in the marketplace and normally we’d expect push-back anytime now. That being the case, traffic now below 5668 looks capable of reversal to an initial 5618 points, pretty useless given the severity of recent swings. If broken, secondary calculates down at 5487 points.

 

Have a good weekend and stay safe.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:45:05PM	BRENT	28.79	27.95	27.675		28.8	29.61	30.125		28.65
9:48:54PM	GOLD	1632.75	1589	1573.5		1611	1644	1652		1612	‘cess
9:51:08PM	FTSE	5809	5470	5371.5		5616	5826	5869		5710	Shambles
9:55:22PM	FRANCE	4565.7	4444	4309		4491	4567	4610		4395	‘cess
10:29:29PM	GERMANY	10038	9519	9245		9898	10113	10242		9876
10:32:22PM	US500	2625.77	2470	2437.5		2511	2643	2655.25		2548	‘cess
10:43:22PM	DOW	22522	21225	20872		21988	22675	22713		22084	‘cess
10:46:26PM	NASDAQ	7860	7396	7228		7566	7908	7924		7634	Shambles
10:48:37PM	JAPAN	19180	18417	17986		19039	19300	19338.5		18537

 

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

Took a look at France, Germany, and the EuroStoxx50 indices in this one, Plus tried Money for Nothing on a semi accoustic!

#Gold #Japan Amongst all the doom, gloom, and travel restrictions, quite a few jokes have served brighten the day. Today, the thing which brought the biggest smile was a Prince Charles Joke despite the FTSE achieving another strong up day (and meeting our initial target level).

Prince Charles is in self-isolation at Balmoral with Covid-19. Prince Andrew is in self-isolation at Royal Lodge, Windsor, with Britney-16…

 

We expressed curiosity over Tuesdays mystery movement on the FTSE, 80 points tacked onto the days trading once the market closed for the day. This followed through and Wednesday morning presented a “gap up” on the market. However, despite achieving a successful 156 point rise to our initial target level of 5616, our secondary at 5799 proved elusive, the day reaching 5741 before fading.

This was pretty firmly in line with our warning; ‘ expect a rise to fade before the secondary.‘ and confirms the risk of the overall market remaining in a downtrend.

 

For today, Thursday, we’re supposed to believe further rises are ahead, none of which we shall risk treating as real unless the market makes it above 5713 points. Such a scenario currently points at the potential of growth to an initial 5800 points with secondary, if better, at a downtrend testing 5800 points. Quite why the index calculates with 100 point movements utterly defeats us.

Unfortunately, it feels more likely some reversal is coming, if only due to the index fading before our 5799 calculation. This results in a game, where the index needs below 5400 to justify a raised eyebrow, along with reversal to 5251 points. Below this and we’re looking at 5053 points. Visually, this will undo the benefit of the last two sessions.

It’s perhaps worth remembering the US Weekly jobs figures are published on Thursday. With many businesses closed for the duration, a spike is jobless is expected, one which will doubtless be used to goose the markets.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:46PM	BRENT	29.5									‘cess
10:15:23PM	GOLD	1619.17	1595	1590	1578	1616	1626	1632	1658	1595
10:23:33PM	FTSE	5647									Success
10:39:20PM	FRANCE	4416.5									Success
10:50:19PM	GERMANY	9844.19									‘cess
10:52:21PM	US500	2487									‘cess
10:56:31PM	DOW	21267									Success
10:58:29PM	NASDAQ	7504.25									Exact !!
11:01:36PM	JAPAN	19123	18429	18030.5	17522	19004	19556	19690	20496	18429

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

 

 

Well, this is exciting. Some stuff about the DOW, FTSE, Cable, and GOLD. Plus playing Money for Nothing on accoustic guitar.

 

 

#France #Nasdaq Unable to recall seeing a 9% UP day on the FTSE, intraday traffic certainly deserved some scrutiny. The big surprise came from the FTSE “closing” number of 5446 points. This was a shock because the FTSE actually closed at 5367 with a 7.5% rise. Everything else came from the mystery moment of the day, called “clearing”. For the average punter, even a 7.5% day gives some considerable hope.

Annoying to say, we hadn’t bothered to give any form of rising scenario in our report yesterday, simply due to the UK index needing above 5890 at present to simply suggest the rate of descent has eased. Everything else risks being smoke and mirrors, due to the UK market already triggering serious longer-term droop potentials. However, we shall suspend disbelief and pretend we’re confident further near term rises shall prove viable.

Should the FTSE now continue above 5460 points, an initial 5616 becomes the initial calculation. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5799 points. As the chart below highlights, the secondary certainly comes close to interfering with the Blue downtrend in the next few days. As always, there’s a fly in the ointment, due to the market already having tripped some pretty major reversal potentials. Our rule of thumb is basic, when rises occur following a drop trigger, we tend believe in our primary targets but expect a rise to fade before the secondary. Only once secondary targets are exceeded does a strong probability present of “bottom” being in.

LISTEN: Our Very First Podcast!

We suspect an attempt is being made to stabilise the markets during this current “House Arrest” phase of Covid-19. To be honest, despite rarely interacting with the outside world, the fact I cannot is already causing frustration.

 

A reverse scenario triggers, should the FTSE wander below 5160 points as reversal to an initial 5095 makes sense. Secondary, if broken, works out at 4977 points.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:45PM	BRENT	29.59									‘cess
9:36:44PM	GOLD	1630.02									Success
9:39:07PM	FTSE	5428.99									Success
9:40:28PM	FRANCE	4235	4058	4018.5	3939	4148	4257	4327	4394	4155	Success
10:00:30PM	GERMANY	9658.28									Success
10:02:19PM	US500	2450									‘cess
10:07:08PM	DOW	20743									Success
10:09:12PM	NASDAQ	7570.24	7147	7072	6901	7382	7585	7678	7772	7380	Success
10:11:48PM	JAPAN	19241									Success

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

 

#GOLD #SP500 It’s not often one gets shamed by a fairy but a niece accomplished provided a dose of humiliation. For over a year, we’ve been threatening to produce a “Podcast” and nothing had been done. A niece runs “Princess Parties”, a niche market which has vanished for Covid-19 reasons. Over the weekend, she decided, ‘okay, I’ll do Princess Story Time’, producing an amazingly professional video which is available free on YouTube, completely dressed in character, where she reads children’s stories.

Meanwhile, despite being surrounded by some professional recording studio equipment, the ambition of doing a market podcast had been successfully avoided. In defense, while stories about Princesses and Dragons may entrance children, we’ve always felt a dialogue about future market potentials could prove as interesting as The Shipping Forecast. However, an attempt has been made and our first 10-minute effort – covering Wall St, The FTSE, Gold, and GBPUSD is available at the link below. If it proves popular, we’ll continue them.

Our Very First Podcast!

 

As for the FTSE, Monday proved pretty chaotic. The index was (as usual) forced down at the open, hitting 4940 within the first 4 minutes. Unusually, some surprise recovery was enacted and by noon, the market ignited the rockets. Needless to say, it all fell apart after 30 minutes with the day ending nearly 4% down. The wild swings are proving frustrating, giving sensible Stop Loss Levels for various index scenarios now an almost impossible task. As fairly simple “for instance” comes with the current market position. There’s a heck of an argument favouring reversal to around 4,000 points next.  At time of writing, the FTSE is trading at 4993 points, so we’re postulating nearly 1,000 points of drop. But the trend line (Blue) which delineates the current drop cycle is presently at 5995 points. This suggests a nearly (and impossible) 1,000 point width of stop loss.

It’s almost as if the market knows this. Gone are the days of a 1% day being fairly vibrant for the FTSE. Instead, we are starting to regard 4 & 5 percent days as the norm!

Near term, it feels like weakness below yesterday’s 4922 risks reversal down to 4792 points. If broken, secondary calculates down at 4726 points. The tightest stop works out at 5,110 points. It’s going to be worth remembering, this scenario risks taking the FTSE below the critical 4,900 level. If you want to know what that means, listen to the podcast…

Please, do remember we are speculating on the FTSE during trading hours, not before – or after – hours futures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:15PM	BRENT	29.16									‘cess
10:04:30PM	GOLD	1556	1520	1509.5	1492	1543	1562	1574	1591	1520	Success
10:37:16PM	FTSE	5095									Sorry
10:49:21PM	FRANCE	3920									Success
10:52:11PM	GERMANY	8990									Success
10:53:49PM	US500	2267.64	2184	2124	2034	2296	2394	2441	2528	2227
10:57:29PM	DOW	18915									Success
11:03:20PM	NASDAQ	7112									Success
11:06:16PM	JAPAN	17718

 

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%