Trends And Targets

FTSE for FRIDAY & Twitter too (FTSE:UKX) With the world reeling in shock, due to the Twitter service being “down”, we’re inclined to expect the worst for Friday as Twitters importance cannot be overstated. Except, of course, it’s completely overstated, due to the service being the easiest source of “he said/she said” lazy news for journalists of all hues! Who knows, on Friday reporters will need do actual work if Twitter remains blissfully silent.

A rather more irritating aspect of Twitters failure has been the realisation integrating it with our own website has caused loading issues, the cause of which only became clear with Twitters trip to the dark side. Unable to communicate with Twitter, our own website started to experience dramatic pauses. Thus, it’s goodbye to Twitter – for now.

However, the organisations share price is looking interesting with 51.5 dollars looking possible as a pretty major point of interest next. If bettered, secondary calculates at 58.5 and should the share price ever manage above such a level, price movements risk becoming irrational as we cannot calculate beyond such a level presently. In terms of the long term, “irrational” is a good thing.

FTSE for FRIDAY As for the FTSE, it feels like Friday faces some further reversals due to the point at which the UK market closed on Thursday. The immediate scenario is fairly straightforward as weakness next below 5785 points risks promoting reversal to an initial 5689 points with secondary, if broken, at a bottom around 5604 points. We would hope for a proper rebound, should the secondary make an appearance.

If this reversal scenario triggers, the tightest stop looks like 5835 points.

 

Alternately, above 5843 (the market closed at 5828) calculates as apparently capable of 5870 points. If exceeded, secondary works out at 5882 points. While these ambitions may look tame, the important detail worth remembering is above 5882 implies bottom is “in” on the current cycle and further gains may be hoped for.

Have a good weekend.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:37:23PM	BRENT	43.38	42.55	41.71		43.39	43.6	44.225		43	‘cess
9:49:53PM	GOLD	1909	1872	1826		1901	1909	1913.5		1901	‘cess
9:53:37PM	FTSE	5867	5822	5738		5862	5882	5915		5851	Success
10:03:00PM	FRANCE	4884.7	4806	4772.5		4846	4890	4902		4859	Success
10:06:11PM	GERMANY	12749	12664	12538.5		12745	12763	12795.5		12705	Success
10:08:51PM	US500	3483.77	3438	3427.5		3472	3490	3505.5		3470	Success
10:18:03PM	DOW	28501.7	28353	28250.5		28515	28540	28608.5		28380	Success
10:20:43PM	NASDAQ	11896	11818	11723.5		11937	11975	12027		11848	Success
10:28:30PM	JAPAN	23462	23411	23335.5		23510	23559	23591		23432	‘cess

15/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5832 points. Change of -1.74%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,796,476,365 a change of -9.92%

14/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of -0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,324,546,827 a change of 20.31%

13/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5969 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,425,675,316 a change of 16.42%

12/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,801,443,086 a change of -34.7%

9/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6016 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,685,817 a change of 29.2%

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

#Gold #Nasdaq The household menagerie sometimes gives surprising inspiration. Living in the country, it’s been easy to become immune to the dogs chasing (and never catching) deer, pheasant, squirrel, ducks and frogs, and the sodding black cat. But what happens, when one of the dogs finds an animal which doesn’t run away? For 90 minutes, from 2am, a Golden Retriever panic barked in the forest behind the house, evading all forms of bribery as we attempted to capture her. Eventually, the torch highlighted a dark object on the forest floor which was the focus of the utterly berserk animal who, in reality, was probably having the time of her life.

A hedgehog had curled into a ball, opting to ignore everything going on. The poor animal was doubtless unaware the dog had excavated the soil and was about to push it in. Only my intervention saved it, so the dog swiped the hedgehog with a paw, rolling it down the hill, straight over the cliff to the garden below. The dog rushed down to the lawn and was promptly marched into the house. Meanwhile, the hedgehog unwound and set about exploring new terrain. It was 4am when I got to bed.

But the hedgehog gave pause for thought. A beast which didn’t run away, just weathered the storm? Quite a few shares have been exhibiting such behaviour since the pandemic price drop in March.

 

Inchcape doubtless will be experiencing a year not worth remembering, yet its share price movements in the last 7 months have not proved noteworthy, instead the price emulating the hedgehog. Their UK operations will doubtless be experiencing identical trauma to the rest of the industry and unfortunately, it’s likely their operations in the other 31 countries in which they’ve a presence will be experiencing similar vile market conditions. We’re inclined to anticipate the worst for Inchcape.

Visually, there’s a strong implication of weakness next below 400p forcing reversal to an initial 265p with secondary, if (when) broken at a bottom of 62p in the longer term. To be blunt, the price is already trading in such frigid territory and we wonder if their results this November shall provoke a swift reversal. Already, we’ve two quite distinct arguments favouring 265p as some sort of bounce level but we’d warn, should the price manage below such a level, there’s an enhanced risk of future reversals until the lows of 2009 are again challenged at an ultimate bottom at the 62p level.

Only in the event of Inchcape exceeding 570 shall we feel any recovery may be genuine as this allows for surprise moves to an initial 677 with secondary, if exceeded, at 784p. We lack optimism.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:54:52PM	BRENT	43.56									Success
9:57:04PM	GOLD	1900.77	1897	1890	1876	1905	1914	1922.5	1936	1899	Success
9:59:43PM	FTSE	5908.52									Shambles
10:02:15PM	FRANCE	4917.2									Shambles
10:10:58PM	GERMANY	12970									‘cess
10:21:53PM	US500	3487.37									‘cess
10:24:24PM	DOW	28525									‘cess
10:52:40PM	NASDAQ	11961	11898	11847	11776	12046	12184	12280.5	12406	12075	‘cess
10:56:19PM	JAPAN	23534									‘cess

14/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of -0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,324,546,827 a change of 20.31%

13/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5969 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,425,675,316 a change of 16.42%

12/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,801,443,086 a change of -34.7%

9/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6016 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,685,817 a change of 29.2%

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

#France #WallSt When a witch goes in for a breast scan, is she given a Pentagram or a Mammogram? This joke, and others, polluted our in-house emails when discovering one of the gang had found “a lump”. Thankfully it appears something easily dealt with, but the fright generated a lot of really bad jokes, trying to conceal immediate worries with humour.

 

However, the experience reminded us to review a playing in the field. With recent emails expressing interesting in Advanced Onco, we didn’t have far to look for inspiration. To pretend due diligence, we also visited the company website and discovered more than we needed to know about something called Proton Beams.

The share price behaviour this week has been quite interesting and we’re not presently concerned at the slight reversals being shown. Movement on Monday appears to have triggered a coming growth cycle to an initial 40p with secondary, if exceeded, at 47p. Presently trading around the 36p level, above 38p should make upward travel difficult to restrain. To cancel the immediate cycle, the share price needs either close a session below 33p or drop below Red, currently at 30.25p, to promote concerns as to longer term growth.

 

Visually there’s a pretty strong hint the price should experience hesitation, should 47p make an appearance. However, closure above such a level is liable to be really critical, launching the share price into a region with a long term ambition of 83p eventually.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:21:21PM	BRENT	42.67
10:23:53PM	GOLD	1891.47									Success
10:26:01PM	FTSE	5976									Success
10:28:09PM	FRANCE	4940	4927	4906	4888	4951	4951	4960	4971	4931	‘cess
10:30:20PM	GERMANY	13001									Success
10:32:33PM	US500	3510.22
10:40:56PM	DOW	28685	28647	28601	28482	28761	28898	28959	29079	28724
10:44:02PM	NASDAQ	12092									Shambles
10:46:16PM	JAPAN	23548

13/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5969 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,425,675,316 a change of 16.42%

12/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,801,443,086 a change of -34.7%

9/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6016 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,685,817 a change of 29.2%

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

#Gold #SP500 A surprising number of folk remain interested in the prancing horse, despite their 2020 Formula 1 performance being measured in pantomime ponies. We last reviewed #Ferrari over a year ago (link) we’d given 193 dollars as a pretty important point of interest. Despite  this price level assuming a degree of importance during August & September and even closing slightly above our Big Picture target, we’re starting to get a little nervous.

Ferrari in New York are presently trading around 184 dollars and we can identify below 171 as being a point where some sort of short position should be justified, once with a stop loss placed at 186 dollars. Below 171 dollars risks triggering reversals to an initial 157 dollars with secondary, if broken, a rather less pleasing 130 dollars, though perhaps meritorious of the companies pace in F1. To put it into perspective, if the new Top Gears (surprisingly watchable) Paddy McGuiness was on the F1 grid, there’d be a reasonable chance he’d finish before Ferrari due to their reliability.

 

Of course, this state of affairs perhaps means the company are focussed on their road cars this year!

 

Despite luxury cruise ships queuing to be broken up for scrap metal value in Turkey, we rather doubt the luxury car market faces similar fate. Apparently the pandemic has been financially kind to the super-rich, making it pretty certain Ferrari are still tackling a never ending waiting list. This being the case, above 189 dollars promises a change in fate for the share price as we’re looking for recovery again to an initial 192 dollars with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 208 dollars and yet another all time high. This is liable to prove significant, threatening a longer term attraction from 225 dollars.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:51:56PM	BRENT	41.89
9:54:46PM	GOLD	1922.98	1918	1913.5	1907	1925	1931	1934.5	1940	1921
10:01:32PM	FTSE	6029.79
10:16:29PM	FRANCE	4988.5									‘cess
10:22:38PM	GERMANY	13172									Success
10:25:20PM	US500	3539.72	3484	3473	3447	3510	3550	3560	3586	3499	Success
10:32:25PM	DOW	28913									Success
10:35:47PM	NASDAQ	12101									Success
10:38:50PM	JAPAN	23604									‘cess

12/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6001 points. Change of -0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,801,443,086 a change of -34.7%

9/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6016 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,685,817 a change of 29.2%

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

#Brent #DAX Preparing for the worst is in everyone’s nature. Currently going through a type of chemo, a visit to the loo on Friday morning suggested a justified degree of panic. Most blokes are used to recycling lager but a stream of what looked like red wine was scary. A quick check of ‘Possible Side Effects’ had the words, Go To Hospital in big red letters with this symptom. Needless to say (and due to feeling utterly fine), time was taken to pack a bag, to print a book (on the stock market) which still needs editing, and put critical files on a laptop. Eventually ready to spend a weekend in intensive care, arrived at the local hospital and was seen immediately.

After a very short delay, the doctor who’d taken the offered sample returned.

“You can go home now,” she smiled. “I’ve phoned the cancer unit and also emailed your GP. He’ll call you later. Essentially, it was gloop. The chemo is doing its job and expelling the bad stuff. There was hardly a trace of blood in your dark red pee!”

Returning home, a flurry of calls from the cancer unit and GP provided some fairly strict orders on what to watch for, along with a demand to attend hospital on Monday morning. They tend not to mess around with “belt and braces” levels of tests when going through treatment. But utter elation, a reprieve from real panic, ensured despite Scotland’s awful weather, the weekend was great. Sometimes we all panic needlessly.

 

Which brings us to Natwest and not, for a change, due to the share price ‘taking the p**s!’.

 

The retail banks, or as we call them, the Clown Sector of the FTSE, continue to show signs of recovering from the limbo dance of share prices. Natwest (RBS) managed to achieve our previous suggestion of 90p, taking the price below that achieved when the banking sector collapsed in 2009. Actually, the price bounced slightly above our 90p target, thus allowing some hope for the future.

Presently trading around the 113p level, the share needs next trade above 116.5p to confirm our fledgling optimism as this is supposed to trigger continued recovery to an initial 124p with secondary, if exceeded, a marginally more respectable 137p. Visually, there’s every chance the 137p level shall provoke some hesitation if achieved. This price level matches the immediate high following the March Covid drop and again, matches the high of last June. Experience tends teach us to watch out for Glass Ceiling levels and this one certainly appears a willing contender.

Only with closure above 137p dare we believe things shall become really interesting as it becomes easy to postulate continued longer term oomph in the direction of 192p.

If it all intends go wrong, the share needs drip below the 100p level as reversal to 90p is expected, hopefully with another bounce. There’s a serious problem below 90p as bottom, if this level breaks, now calculates down at 69p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:20:00PM	BRENT	42.97	42.64	41.38	40.6	43.16	43.72	44.2175	44.99	42.97	‘cess
1:48:24PM	GOLD	1930.77									Success
1:52:16PM	FTSE	6026									‘cess
2:03:41PM	FRANCE	4946									‘cess
2:05:57PM	GERMANY	13095	13008	12975	12935	13080	13104	13138.5	13182	13044
2:13:32PM	US500	3484.47									‘cess
2:25:54PM	DOW	28661
2:30:37PM	NASDAQ	11740									‘cess
2:33:03PM	JAPAN	23567									‘cess

9/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 6016 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,685,817 a change of 29.2%

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

#FTSE #Brent It’s unusual, in these confused days, to stagger up to a Friday with some optimism but despite negative news from so many sources, the FTSE is somehow managing to look positive. Perhaps it’s related to the price of Brent Crude as the black stuff looks capable also of some near term price gains where above 44.6 dollars, the immediate target, should potentially signal a cycle commencing toward the 46.8 dollar mark.

 

As for the FTSE, with the index managing to close Thursday around the 5980 level, the market closed at the highest level in 14 sessions, officially ticking the box for a “Higher High”, thanks to the all important market closure level being comfortably above any intra-day level since September 21st. From our perspective, this is quite a big deal and tends suggest the FTSE shall need some pretty negative news to derail a sense of hope in the days and week ahead.

Near term, things promise to become interesting if the UK index wanders above 6012 points. This calculates as capable of triggering a movement toward an initial 6044 points with secondary, if exceeded, working out at 6095 points. In fact, while we do not expect movement in a single day, longer term 6175 appears to be exerting an attraction for the days ahead. If feeling insanely brave, the tightest stop in this scenario looks like a dreadfully wide 5929 points!

 

Our reasoning for such a ridiculous stop loss level comes from the optics of the last week as 5929 has made an appearance twice as a day low. Below 5929 suggests the possibility of reversal to an initial 5893 points with secondary, if broken, calculating at 5859 points.

 

As the chart inset shows, Thursday was also the first time the FTSE has managed to close a session above the Blue downtrend which commenced, when everything started to go horribly wrong in February. It’s officially “fingers crossed” time

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:30:49PM	BRENT	43.59	42.15	41.835		42.55	43.59	43.725		42.8	Success
10:34:02PM	GOLD	1893.83	1879	1868		1890	1896	1902		1890
10:49:09PM	FTSE	6005.9	5968	5956.5		6000	6006	6025.5			‘cess
10:51:09PM	FRANCE	4925	4874	4859.5		4914	4930	4946.5		4906
10:53:44PM	GERMANY	13084	12996	12955.5		13050	13104	13172		13043	‘cess
10:55:37PM	US500	3454	3422	3409.5		3446	3456	3472		3423	‘cess
10:57:25PM	DOW	28499	28254	28154.5		28415	28570	28714.5		28370	‘cess
10:58:59PM	NASDAQ	11573	11502	11464.5		11580	11595	11676.5		11539	‘cess
11:00:48PM	JAPAN	23634	23570	23539		23642	23671	23697		23570	Success

8/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5978 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,506,090,091 a change of -9.79%

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

#SP500 #Japan We’re taking an interest in online retails, both as welcome relief from scanning pharma’s and due to a suspicion further lockdown behaviour shall again benefit retailers with strong internet presence. While we’ve never heard of Brown Group, their brands were familiar, thus qualifying for a hard look at the corporate share price. And for those interested, their website carries the usual disclaimers of a company being green and not using slave labour to destroy the planet… They’re probably even nice to traffic wardens!

 

At present, the share is trading around the 53p mark. If an “online retailer” dividend is coming, we shall be interested if it next manages to trade above just 60p as a recovery cycle to an initial 77p looks possible. We’re already a little puzzled at the share failing, thus far, to recover from the Covid-19 plunge in March when the price hit 10p. Many other online retails already have experienced correction from this pandemic drop and in the case of Brown, the share price needs above 68p to convince recovery is genuine.

In the event our 60p to 77p trigger comes to fruition, should the price manage above the 77p level, further movement to 119p calculates as probable in the longer term. Beyond this point, we shall need stir the tea leaves again, due to a rather murky reality from the bigger picture.

 

When the share price was moved down to the 10p level in March, it was taken below an “ultimate bottom” level of 12p. We’re a little uncomfortable with this and wonder if there’s an underlying fundamental issue which needs investigated before taking a position. Of course, perhaps we’re being hysterics on the issue as movements in mid-March across the wider market often felt like lunatics had taken over the asylum. Equally, there’s no doubt online retailers are reaping the reward of High St avoidance, so perhaps this is simply awaiting some positive sales figures being reported.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:16:24PM	BRENT	42.34
10:18:42PM	GOLD	1887.5
10:20:38PM	FTSE	5952									Success
10:22:38PM	FRANCE	4888									Success
10:28:08PM	GERMANY	12950									Success
10:29:54PM	US500	3416.52	3372	3350	3324	3409	3428	3443	3477	3393	Success
10:32:57PM	DOW	28306									Success
10:34:47PM	NASDAQ	11492									Success
10:50:24PM	JAPAN	23502	23329	23266.5	23188	23427	23502	23534.5	23643	23407	Success

7/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5946 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,994,944,768 a change of 3.84%

6/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5949 points. Change of 0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,810,400,259 a change of 20.66%

5/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5942 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,986,790,747 a change of -6.97%

2/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5902 points. Change of 0.39%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,285,372,497 a change of -12.92%

1/10/2020 FTSE Closed at 5879 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,921,284,024 a change of -5.87%

30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%