Author: T&T Staff

#FTSE An email asking us to review a new name, #Deepverge PLC, immediately reminded of a disastrous start to an extended summer holiday. As a child, cursed with travel sickness, the family had developed an elegant regime when trouble developed. “He’s gulping!”, one of my siblings would yell, my father immediately pulling to the side of the road. They’d all learned projectile vomiting inside a car wasn’t fun nor pretty.

We were traveling in Sutherland, just north of Lairg, and heading to our holiday home. The roads are virtually unchanged today, single track rollercoaster race tracks, the journey often punctuated by emergency stops to avoid sheep, deer, or to accommodate unexploded children. The car was memorable, a gold coloured Vauxhall VX4/90 estate, brand new and very rare. As usual, being driven fairly quickly by a father who just wanted the journey to be over. It was the 1970’s, a time when speed limits were more of an voluntary nature in northern Scotland. Unsurprisingly, this is still the case here in Argyll but only when off the main roads and travelling the more remote single track routes, devoid of tourists.

The shout, “He’s Gulping” caused the car to enact an emergency stop and with long choreographed practice, the side door was flung open and I was pushed out. My brother, ever helpful, assisted my passage with a kick.

Unfortunately, this is where Deep Verge will always be remembered. We’d stopped with what looked like a shallow ditch at the roadside, the usual oily film of water at the bottom. Propelled directly into the ditch, it turned out to be a peat bog into which I immediately sank, up to the armpits. When eventually retrieved, stinking, covered in clinging mucky peat, and without surviving footwear (meaning my immediate future involved wearing wellies or nothing at all) I completed the journey naked beneath a bedsheet as unpacking the car to find replacement clothing was decided against. On the bright side, when we arrived at the highland croft, I was neither expected to help carry bags nor to patrol the grass removing sheep dung. I didn’t even get called upon to fetch water from the ancient well.

After nearly 50 years, Deepverge still means something to me!

 

However, it’s possible Deepverge Plc (trading around 33p currently) share price movements should prove more meaningful to the market. Without doubt, something positive is happening with this company who’s website boasts of their work in ‘Artificial intelligence, clinical research, medical device and life science.’ Needless to say, they also find space to mention Covid-19 in their portfolio of activities. The company share price is trading at a new high level, giving a fairly strong impression continued movement above 34.75p should attempt an initial 37.25p with secondary, if exceeded, a rather more useful looking 44p.

This sort of thing should take the price pretty close to the Tesla zone, a level above which we cannot calculate, presenting a ‘the sky is the limit’ scenario. In the case of Deepverge, if it finds a reason to exceed 47p, goodness knows where it could end up. For now, the price would need below 23p to cause panic.

FTSE for FRIDAY The UK index has been behaving fairly positively for the last few sessions with no signs renewed Covid hysteria is effecting the market. Quite the opposite in fact, despite the media now reporting patients in the north of England are being evacuated to Scotland, due to English hospitals being at capacity. The immediate situation for the FTSE (trading at 6856 at time of writing) is fairly hopeful with the potential of movement above 6904 points suggesting ongoing recovery to an initial 6958 points with secondary, if bettered, a longer term (or later in the day!) calculation of 7064 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop is unpleasantly wide at 6821 points. As shown on the chart, this sort of upward surge exposes 7361 as a level where some sort of hesitation almost must occur eventually.

Obviously, there must be a real risk pandemic panic shall take hold with the result we’d be alarmed should London find a reason to slip below 6741 points. Below this level, reversals risk becoming real with the potential of an initial 6688 points. If broken, our secondary calculation comes in at a shocking looking 6383 points.

 

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:55:27PM	BRENT	54.57	53.91	53.645		54.56	54.86	55.5325		53.7	‘cess
10:57:36PM	GOLD	1914.3	1906	1897.5		1920	1928	1936		1914
10:59:29PM	FTSE	6866	6786	6732.5		6880	6925	6935		6830	‘cess
11:01:02PM	FRANCE	5676.7	5626	5602.5		5662	5688	5696.5		5660	‘cess
11:03:28PM	GERMANY	13986	13894	13863		13987	14007	14038.5		13925	‘cess
11:12:59PM	US500	3803.37	3753	3737		3784	3812	3828		3761	‘cess
11:15:48PM	DOW	31034.1	30849	30735		31007	31194	31233		31002	‘cess
11:19:08PM	NASDAQ	12934	12652	12528		12767	12969	13036.25		12803
11:20:47PM	JAPAN	27613	27389	27335.5		27580	27655	27716		27433

 

 

7/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6856 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,370,774,807 a change of -13.13%

6/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6841 points. Change of 3.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,484,604,926 a change of 72.21%

5/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of 0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,926,938,806 a change of -22.87%

4/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6571 points. Change of 0.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,387,934,113 a change of 115.76%

30/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,960,610,483 a change of -37.96%

29/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6602 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,771,921,591 a change of 0%

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of 0%

#FTSE #CAC40 We’ve expressed concern for the FTSE, due to a logical expectation of many companies issuing Profit Warnings, due to the disaster which was 2020. #Greggs Bakers stepped into the spotlight, announcing record losses, indeed their first loss since listing in 1984, and of course, their share price increased by 8% on a day when the FTSE was defying gravity! We fear their optimistic outlook for recovery may prove as fluid as UK Govt lockdown statements.

The company expectation of a return to profit in 2022 doesn’t resonate well, especially thanks to growing fears it shall be autumn 2021 before the UK returns whatever the new normal will be. Quite how this will effect the deserted canyons of the city, due to people working from home and ‘enjoying’ online shopping while ensuring they are nowhere near a convenient Greggs outlet. The company statement; “history shows city centres as the driving force of any economy and so they will come back even if it is at a lower level” tends ring hollow as no-one knows what a life post-Covid shall really be like.

For now, we’re going to adhere to our suspicion of future severe market reversal, when a drip of negative reports becomes a flood.

 

As for Greggs share price, trading around 1920p at time of writing, it needs above 2052p to give assurance movement on the current cycle should prove viable. Exceeding such a level looks capable of triggering recovery toward an initial 2248p with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 2567p. The secondary ambition is visually interesting, suggesting a future attempt to match the series of historical highs attained in the last few years. We will have strong reason to anticipate hesitation, should such a lofty ambition occur.

For everything to go pastie shaped, the price needs fall below 1700p, this risking a pretty messy chain of events which should bottom around 943p.

One interesting aspect, hitherto unknown, comes from the spelling of the word “Pastie”. Google insists it be spelt “Pasty”, the definition of “Pastie” is for coverings for the female nipple, traditionally worn by striptease artists!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:24:53PM	BRENT	54.25									Success
9:27:10PM	GOLD	1916.94									Success
9:30:37PM	FTSE	6834.87	6596	6524	6410	6696	6866	6881	6935	6794	Success
10:13:14PM	FRANCE	5625.2	5565	5546.5	5510	5615	5656	5667.5	5715	5616	Success
10:15:09PM	GERMANY	13873									Success
10:22:42PM	US500	3755									Success
10:24:49PM	DOW	30858									Success
10:27:21PM	NASDAQ	12662

 

#Gold #SP500 Will Florida be cheaper for an Easter Break or February skiing in Colorado? Or even, is it worth holding off buying a Gulfstream to escape the UK? These questions, and more, have not been asked of us (yet) despite Sterling started to exhibit strength against the US Dollar. With British tourists as welcome internationally as an unwrapped Mars Bar floating in a swimming pool, the UK currency could be expected to behave oddly. It has certainly obliged.

 

With the Sterling/US Dollar pairing trading above the critical 1.35 level, some real hope is possible for the future for those folk planning on taking their kids to the hell which is Disney Florida. Doubtless, ongoing travel bans contribute to the utter lack of folk emailing to ask about the US Dollar. The January eruption of holiday adverts of TV invariably promotes questions about buying the dollar now or holding off for a while.

We suspect, this year, the relationship should continue to firm up. Strength anytime soon above 1.37 looks pretty capable of bringing 1.388 with secondary, if exceeded, a rather more attractive 1.440. Visually, the secondary is fairly interesting, taking the pair to the same level as 2018’s high and suggesting the presence of a Glass Ceiling, along with inevitable hesitation in a rise. What REALLY surprises us for the longer term is a calculation (if any of this scenario plays out) which gives 1.734 as a viable Big Picture ambition sometime in the presumably distant future. This would suggest the idea of a future return to the level which ruled from 2009 through to 2014, a pleasant concept as it again promises a level where some turbulence can be expected.

 

If it all intends go wrong, the pairing needs reverse below 1.310. Maybe the rest of the world shall not prove keen on “UK Mutant Covid-19” proving our most successful export… assuming such a thing even exists and isn’t a figment in the rabid imagination of a journalist.

 

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:03PM	BRENT	53.56									‘cess
10:05:34PM	GOLD	1950.37	1936	1930.5	1923	1946	1953	1954.5	1960	1943
10:07:35PM	FTSE	6628									Shambles
10:10:11PM	FRANCE	5581.4									Ditto
10:12:30PM	GERMANY	13695.3									as above
10:14:49PM	US500	3726.07	3681	3673	3651	3713	3734	3740	3767	3695	Success
10:17:18PM	DOW	30403									Success
10:30:24PM	NASDAQ	12816									‘cess
10:32:35PM	JAPAN	27132

 

5/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6612 points. Change of 0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,926,938,806 a change of -22.87%

4/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6571 points. Change of 0.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,387,934,113 a change of 115.76%

30/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,960,610,483 a change of -37.96%

29/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6602 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,771,921,591 a change of 0%

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of 0%

#Natwest #Bitcoin, & Wall St An attempt to visit Glencoe to enjoy snow fell apart, thanks to a pre-lockdown ambush. Stopping at a chums (otherwise closed) hotel en-route, we all sat outside in a heated garden area, enjoying an early lunch, plenty of red wine, coffee with rum, and the genuine pleasure of gathering with friends, safely, in spectacular countryside. Ideas of skiing were forgotten, especially due to the mid afternoon news the Scottish Govt had just banned everything again.

As has become usual, Boris followed suit several hours later, ensuring the entire UK can spend time fondly remembering when they could ‘almost’ socialise. One strange aspect, folk arriving at Heathrow continue to experience fewer checks than those entering a supermarket in Germany? Some things just don’t make sense.

 

The first trading day of the year managed to take nonsensical to new levels. The FTSE was UP by around 1.7%. Meanwhile, the various US markets were DOWN by around 1.5% and Bitcoin took a stupid pill. The fake currency has been experiencing remorseless rises for the last few weeks, quite literally doubling in value since the start of November. There’s now a problem rearing its head as we’d a calculation of $36,000 as the point where Bitcoin should almost certainly experience some hesitation. The market appears to have a different idea, the phony value achieving a high of $35,000 before hysterics established themselves.

From our perspective, if Bitcoin were to somehow better $36k, a new era would dawn as we cannot calculate any sort of “top”. Essentially, it could go anywhere. Instead, we’ve no option but to suspect weakness may creep into the game. Alarm bells will ring, if Bitcoin manages to trade below 28,900 anytime soon as a correction toward 24,500 calculates as possible. Visually it’s possible and unfortunately, our longer term (or later in the session) secondary works out at $17,800.

As mentioned above, Wall St managed to toddle off, doing the opposite of Europe in a confusing day. Perhaps, like our waylaid skiing party, the US managed to find convivial surrounding in which to do something more interesting than trade the markets! The DOW need only trade below 30,040 points to next enter a slight reversal cycle to 29,815 points with secondary, if broken, at 29,537. Visually neither calculation is particularly threatening given the index behaviour over the last few months.

Finally, we don’t want to look at Natwest but, as we analyse one of the banking sector at the start of every week, even a grudging look is better than no look at all! Near term, it looks like weakness below 157p shall provoke reversals to an initial 152 and hopefully a bounce, given the position of the immediate uptrend. In the event 152p breaks, hopefully 142p shall provide a bottom.

The share price needs better 170p to suggest happy days, calculating with an initial ambition at 180p with secondary, if bettered, at 188p. Either target will represent new ‘post Covid’ highs and suggest a positive attitude for the future.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop
10:26:17PM	BRENT	50.76	50.57	50.16	49.11	51.52	53.31	53.72	54.77	52.21
10:34:20PM	GOLD	1943.17
10:35:50PM	FTSE	6561.15
10:40:47PM	FRANCE	5568
10:42:16PM	GERMANY	13686	13583	13500	13360	13716	13738	13787.5	13855	13635
10:44:15PM	US500	3704.12
10:46:13PM	DOW	30224
10:47:45PM	NASDAQ	12692
10:49:33PM	JAPAN	27100

4/01/2021 FTSE Closed at 6571 points. Change of 0.24%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,387,934,113 a change of 115.76%

30/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,960,610,483 a change of -37.96%

29/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6602 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,771,921,591 a change of 150.04%

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of 0%

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of 0%

#FTSE One thing about this time of year is the feeling you’re writing an article you really cannot be bothered with, secure in the knowledge no-one is going to bother reading it anyway. Financial volumes through London tend confirm most folk are spending time avoiding family, Covid-19, the markets and Europe but to be fair, the markets appear to be ending the year the way usually happens, with a whimper of relief.

Last year, the final full day of trading recorded £3.2bn turnover in London. This year, the final day calculated at £2.9bn traded through the exchange, a minimal swing given the usual daily variance.

On the final day of trading last year, we included a “Print This Out” section giving trigger levels to watch, especially if everything started go wrong. Particularly nasty was our comment against Wall St, suggesting a change of underwear if the index fell below 27,000. The ensuing reversal to 18,000 proved memorable, except we completely forgot we’d written it (nor printed it out!).

Similarly, the S&P was given with a reversal trigger at 2,930. It fell to 2,200 points. France triggered 5,380, finally halting at 3,640 points while Germany triggered at 12,470 and bottomed down at 8,250 points. And along came the FTSE, triggering at 6,740 and finding a bottom at 4,890 points.

 

For fun, we’ve put together a little table below. As can be seen, Covid-19 provided around 1/3rd reversals in Europe & the USA, the FTSE being a real surprise by failing to experience such an exaggerated drop as the other major markets.

World Market	Trigger Level	Covid Drop	Drop %ge
Wall St	27000	18000	-33%
France	5380	3640	-32%
Germany	12470	8250	-33%
UK FTSE	6740	4890	-27%

This year, we’re not going to attempt a similar feature, simply due to the markets being all over the place in the period since the final Covid-19 drop in mid-March. There’s no doubt the markets want to recover, strongly, but if we take our favourite “If It Were A Share” stance, everything pretty fragile and negative news could promote some very fast reversals. In the case of the FTSE, only above 6,750 or so shall we dare to believe recovery to be genuine.

 

As for Thursday, a half day of trading, below 6,550 looks pretty capable of reversals to an initial 6,521 points. If broken (visually unlikely), our secondary works out at 6,465 points.

Alternately, above 6,604 shall tend suggest the possibility of the index ending the year on a high note. Above this level allows strength to an initial 6,643 with secondary, if bettered, a rather more exciting 6,695 points.

 

Our best wishes for next year. As usual, we shall return on 5th January, thanks to Scotland alone providing a “sober up day” as a 2nd public holiday.

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:44PM	BRENT	51.59	50.91	50.58	50.14	51.68	51.9	52.115	52.55	51.23	‘cess
10:08:13PM	GOLD	1894.78	1871	1865	1855	1886	1899	1908	1921	1883	‘cess
10:10:13PM	FTSE	6520	6504	6480	6433	6578	6577	6655.5	6706	6527	‘cess
10:11:50PM	FRANCE	5572	5571	5558.5	5536	5601	5616	5635	5656	5581	‘cess
10:14:07PM	GERMANY	13658	13638	13583.5	13477	13713	13775	13793	13844	13694
10:15:55PM	US500	3732	3728	3725	3718	3738	3746	3755	3766	3732
10:18:18PM	DOW	30428	30371	30205	30070	30481	30522	30591.5	30698	30390
10:20:35PM	JAPAN	27455	27401	27341	27227	27542	27614	27699	27821	27455
10:20:49PM	NASDAQ	12852	Clueless

 

30/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6555 points. Change of -0.71%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 2,960,610,483 a change of -37.96%

29/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6602 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,771,921,591 a change of 150.04%

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of -53.69%

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0.65%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of -11.88%

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of 0%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 0%

Lloyds Bank (LSE:LLOY) Trigger levels often prove important, none more so than the one we gave for Lloyds three weeks ago. All we demanded was the share price exceed 40.6p to “prove” bottom and provoke some reasonable acceleration. Despite FTSE flamboyance, the bank only achieved 40p as a high in the intervening period. Perhaps it’s on a stock market version of Santa’s naughty list!

How are things now looking?

 

Our movement trigger has changed in the intervening period, just not impressively. It now asks the share price exceed 41.49p before we dare be convinced some proper price recovery is commencing, this calculating with the potential of movement to an initial 46.5p with secondary, if exceeded, at 50.5p. Given the share is trading at 36.75 at time of writing, this does not suggest a truly impressive recovery tier, quite the opposite.

Some marginal hope is being taken from the position of our “if it all goes wrong” price level. We’d calculated the share needed break below 31.7p to promote the idea of running for the hills. Thankfully, the lowest achieved in the period was 32p, above our panic level and tending confirm we’ve been watching the correct trend. This danger level can now be adjusted down to 31.2p as weakness below such a point looks capable of triggering reversal, again, down to 27.25p and hopefully a rebound. The chart certainly gives such an impression.

For now, we remain optimistic, suspecting the price ‘only’ needs a slight change in market sentiment to move fast.

 

We’ve one more report on Wednesday (the FTSE obviously) until we return next Tuesday, 5th January. One of the (often rare) joys of living in Scotland is 1st & 2nd January are public holidays, embraced quite seriously with the result this coming Monday is a public holiday – aka taking down all the Xmas decoration and hosting a family day in the countryside.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:31:26PM	BRENT	51.48	50.8	50.325	49.75	51.6	51.68	51.89	52.25	50.92
9:33:02PM	GOLD	1878	1871	1865	1853	1883	1886	1892	1904	1876
9:57:10PM	FTSE	6591	6551	6516	6461	6606	6681	6702.5	6759	6595	Success
10:09:03PM	FRANCE	5587.5	5577	5560	5538	5602	5602	5613.75	5659	5577	‘cess
10:12:07PM	GERMANY	13723	13688	13632	13578	13782	13867	13990	14024	13768	‘cess
10:14:47PM	US500	3731.62	3725	3718.5	3706	3743	3756	3781.25	3807	3733	‘cess
10:17:10PM	DOW	30371	30321	30272.5	30163	30469	30602	30745	31187	30401	Shambles
10:21:28PM	JAPAN	27520	no idea				27702	27821	27974	27455	Success

 

29/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6602 points. Change of 1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,771,921,591 a change of 150.04%

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of -53.69%

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0.65%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of -11.88%

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 0%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of 0%

#Brent #CAC40  Obviously, for this Xmas, the driving subject was Cat Pee. Our dining room, usually only opened for dinner between 8pm and 9pm (or so), had been open thanks to innumerable grandchildren (just 2 of them) treating it as a rehearsal studio, dressing room, or adult free space. It’s one of these peculiar rooms which is prized and mostly unused except for an evening meal. Except one of our unwanted cats decided it can now be used as a toilet.

Christmas day started by shampooing the dining room carpet, the shampoo mixed with peppermint. The internet claims cats dislike peppermint, giving a vague hope of avoiding a repeat performance.  Amazingly, the cat stink revealed something hitherto unknown in the household. Four, out of FOUR, females could not smell the abhorrent stink. Perhaps they were exhibiting early signs of Covid-19, perhaps they were avoiding shampooing the carpet.

 

The above rant has quite a lot to do with the stock market. Amongst market analysts, there appears quite a bit of optimism for 2021, based on reliance for “The Vaccine”. This reliance is generating an assumption soon, everything shall return to the way it was before Covid-19 hit. Who knows, perhaps things shall be even better!

Goodness knows, of course we all want things to return to normal but, like the female nose and cat pee, market analysts seem to be missing something quite important. (I should point out, my own sense of smell is such that I cannot exist in the same room as strong perfume or potpourri)

During 2020, very many businesses failed to trade at normal levels. Instead, there has been chaotic disruption of income levels, giving an expectation many companies shall cough politely and announce reduced dividend payments in 2021. This sort of thing generally justifies some hysterics with share prices but there’s a greater issue, one being glossed over currently.

“Profit Warnings” tend produce quite nasty share price movements, on average a drop of 21% in the share price on the day the warning was issued. The majority of Profit Warnings are generated, due to shortfalls in sales and the worst share price drops come from companies who previously issued a warning.

The big thing about Profit Warnings is the time of year they are issued. Historically, the majority occur in Q1, the first trading quarter of the year. Q2 will generally host a slightly lesser bunch. And with the example of A G Barr below, bad news can emerge in Q3 too.

If we are to experience a bunch a Profit Warnings, bursting the bubble of optimism produced by the Covid-19 vaccine, when is it liable to occur and how bad could it be for the FTSE?

 

Our suspicion demands a critical mass of trouble, causing a loss of confidence as traders wonder which company shall be next to announce sales plunged during 2020. Perhaps by the end of March, perhaps during May and if we adhere to average drop philosophy, a market reversal above 21% is expected. If current levels of optimism are maintained, ‘maybe’ the FTSE shall experience a bottom around 5,200 points but our own software keeps suggesting an eventual bottom around 4,400 points.

Something worth remembering, if a Tsunami of bad news provokes market reversals, the rebound is liable to be strong, hopefully occurring in an environment where all the bad news is finally out of the way, people are getting immunized, business is indeed returning to normal, and of course, summer will be coming and folk cheer up. More importantly, there will be a strong possibility those market sectors currently floundering shall be ones experiencing stronger recovery. The banking sector immediately springs to mind but equally food and drink retail should not be ignored.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop
9:22:31PM	BRENT	50.99	50.6	49.975	49.28	51.78	51.64	52.095	53.05	50.6
9:26:08PM	GOLD	1873.73								1881
9:28:07PM	FTSE	6548								6502
9:29:57PM	FRANCE	5580	5546	5527.5	5503	5590	5600	5612.75	5658	5571
9:34:40PM	GERMANY	13786								13655
9:36:17PM	US500	3739								3722
9:38:29PM	DOW	30376								30337
9:40:04PM	NASDAQ	12846								12733
9:43:31PM	JAPAN	26943								26848

28/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6502 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 1,908,434,539 a change of -53.69%

23/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6495 points. Change of 0.65%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,121,226,334 a change of -11.88%

22/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6453 points. Change of 19.66%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,676,737,915 a change of -29%

21/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 5393 points. Change of -17.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,586,656,478 a change of -30.25%

18/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6529 points. Change of -0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,789,780 a change of 73.6%

17/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6551 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,439,357,090 a change of 0%

16/12/2020 FTSE Closed at 6570 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,834,302,099 a change of 0%