Author: T&T Staff

#Gold #SP500 Completing our monthly wade into the sewer which is the retail banks, Barclays managed flush itself quite thoroughly down the plughole. At the end of January, (link here) we gave a fairly unambiguous outlook as shown in the image below.

Visually, there’s some hope for a rebound anytime soon as the price challenges the Red uptrend since 2009. At present, any rebound needs exceed 158p to give some slight hope as this calculates with the potential of recovery to 166p. If beaten, our secondary works out at 185p, visually pretty impressive but failing (currently) to exceed Blue and scurry into safety for the longer term.

What happens if the share price now withers below 139p?

Initially we’re looking at weakness to 135p but should such a point break, life becomes pretty dangerous for Barclays with the potential of 90p making itself known as secondary.

Thankfully we’re keeping things brief tonight (Monday) as we’ve been mesmerised by the US markets during their final 90 minutes of trade. Witnessing the DOW achieve a 5.1% rise was truly unusual, suggesting recent panic drops have been exaggerated, resulting in a situation where some strong recovery across the markets can be hoped for. In the case of the DOW, allegedly moves now above 26,750 should prove capable of an 1,100 point rise!

Unless, of course, someone sneezes.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:27:14PM	BRENT	52.8									Success
10:28:41PM	GOLD	1589.96	1583	1578	1567	1597	1611	1619	1627	1595	‘cess
10:32:32PM	FTSE	6717.91
10:34:41PM	FRANCE	5407.2									Shambles
10:38:25PM	GERMANY	11999.04									Shambles
10:47:42PM	US500	3078.27	2989	2954	2910	3040	3086	3103.25	3139	3031	Success
10:52:47PM	DOW	26607.7									Success
10:54:56PM	NASDAQ	8833									Success
10:56:50PM	JAPAN	21484									‘cess

 

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

 

#BRENT #DAX Retail bank prices behave like a cosmic practical joke. When we reviewed Lloyds in January (link), we warned we’d need review the tea leaves again if the price managed below 48p. During Fridays traumatic session, Lloyds achieved 47.89p, thus forcing us to do some work!

At first glance, Lloyds share price looks pretty stuffed and yes, weakness now below 47.8p will be regarded as entering a cycle down to an initial 42.5 with secondary, when broken, at a bottom hopefully of 31p. However, there’s a bit of a wrinkle with this argument and it’s shown with the Closing Price insert on the chart.

It could prove to be quite important the market ensured Lloyds Bank share price did not close below the trend, instead effectively closing at Red, hinting at a coming rebound.

This being the case, it’s perhaps important to point out the glaringly obvious. Until such time Lloyds share price recovers above Blue, we dare not take any recovery seriously. At present, this particular stumbling block resides at 62p.

Near term, above 53.3p looks capable of bringing an initial 56.25p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 59.7p and visually collides with a glass ceiling which appears to have formed just below the 60p level this year. There’s certainly a strong argument favouring movement above 59.7p being taken as early warning for a future attempt at the banks share price breaking above Blue, hopefully to enjoy some time in the sun.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:00:19PM	BRENT	50.1	48.9	47.74	46.44	50.25	50.93	51.45	52.3	49.5	Success
4:24:37PM	GOLD	1586									Success
5:03:45PM	FTSE	6709.28									‘cess
5:07:33PM	FRANCE	5333.5									Success
5:25:18PM	GERMANY	12035.78	11716	11475	11393	11920	12059	12152.5	12298	11932	Success
5:29:28PM	US500	2989									‘cess
5:34:15PM	DOW	25690									Success
5:37:45PM	NASDAQ	8545.37									‘cess
5:40:43PM	JAPAN	21137									Success

 

28/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6580 points. Change of -3.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,863,850,185 a change of 59.9%

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

#FTSE #Gold A week ago, we thought we risked being panic merchants by giving criteria postulating an early warning scenario for a FTSE drop to 5,850 points. Given the UK index has managed lose nearly 700 points, it has dragged itself into a region where 5,850 is no longer such a daft idea. But crucially, all we have seen is early warning. We have yet to witness, (from our perspective) confirmation.

In fact, if we drag out the chart from the market plunge of from Oct 2008 until Mar 2009 and get busy with a Red crayon, the market has yet to break through the final uptrend, the one which will suggest the recovery (?) from the lows of 2009 has failed. Unfortunately, the market is getting close and closure below 6,700 will tend tick a fairly major box for some troubled times ahead. Such a scenario allows continued eventual reversal to 6,420 and a deluxe ticket into the Land of Lower Lows.

If 6,420 makes an appearance, we shall be presenting a drop target below such a level at 5,850 points. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom (hopefully) of 5,260 points. Alas, there is an unfortunate aspect to such a level which allows calculation of a 3rd level. It’s a market bottom, ultimately, at 3,655. Rather scary to note this is marginally higher than the low of 2009.

In summary, it’s early days, despite how utterly foul the last few sessions have proven. Perhaps it’s also worth noting drops this severe can also reverse with similar strength, if conditions prove to change. As winter draws to a close, it’s easy to suspect (hope) a respiratory virus shall find it difficult to sustain dominance of headlines?

Near term, for the FTSE for FRIDAY, we shall be watching Japan through the night, hoping it ends positive. If it does, this will send a pretty strong signal Europe and the US should expect a respite on Friday. Near term, above 6,848 points is supposed to bring recovery to an initial 6,924 points. If exceeded, secondary works out at 6,964 points though, realistically, any positive sentiment could easily drive the market toward 7,106 points. If triggered, the tightest stop needs be just under Thursdays low of 6729 points.

Alternately, weakness now below 6729 allows reversal to an initial 6,580. If broken, secondary is at 6,455.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:22:35PM	BRENT	50.89	50.38	49.895		51.8	52.46	53.07		50.96	‘cess
10:24:31PM	GOLD	1645.56	1634.6	1626.5		1649	1660.38	1670.1		1641
10:35:04PM	FTSE	6644.63	6614	6541		6720	6846	6877		6796	Success
10:38:22PM	FRANCE	5391	5383	5319		5492	5511	5545		5457	Success
10:43:27PM	GERMANY	12083.5	12032	11891		12230	12170	12269		12042	‘cess
10:50:42PM	US500	2950.47	2944	2917		3004	3004	3023.5		2954	Success
10:57:08PM	DOW	25538.5	25441	25415		25745	25745	25820.5		25540	Success
11:01:41PM	NASDAQ	8354.62	8327	8153		8470	8470	8483		8370	Success
11:06:24PM	JAPAN	21158	21138	21097		21321	21740	22315.5		21540	Success

 

27/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 6796 points. Change of -3.49%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,670,151,517 a change of 31.45%

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

#Brent #US500 Life’s a funny old thing. When we last reviewed Germany back in October (link) we gave criteria defining 13,650 as a major point of interest for the index, something the market achieved and bettered during February. The odd thing, when we give these secondary targets, we tend anticipate a bit of hesitation at the price level, generally some volatility or stutters.

The DAX, of course, paid lip service to the concept of hesitation, choosing instead to fall by 1,200 points over three sessions. Some say it was something to do with pandemic fears and nothing at all to do with our 13,650 level…

In reality, our price levels generally justify a little volatility and (unless some positive or negative news makes itself known) the volatility will be fairly minor. We saw this today with the FTSE as our initial target level was 6999 points. As the chart below highlights, the index hit our initial target, bounced around above and below for a while, then on the 3rd break upward, continued to our secondary target. This tends be the important thing with price levels. Mostly they pass virtually un-noticed unless someone throws a cat among the pigeons.

Unfortunately, the DAX found itself primed for a ruddy great cat incident!

The situation with Germany is now a little strange. If we concentrate on reversal potentials, it appears weakness next below 12,368 should attack a bottom of 12,152 and hopefully generate a bounce. We actually have some doubts, thanks to the effort employed on Wednesday to force a bounce. It almost felt like “they” didn’t want the market to fall further.

Instead, the immediate situation suggests recovery above 12,850 should bring a visit to 13,034 next. If bettered, we’d regard it entering a cycle back up to 13,650 as secondary again, utterly confusing us, why is this level so important?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:27:45PM	BRENT	52.85	52.38	52.135	49.63	54.7	54.82	55.86	57.02	53.94	Success
10:29:38PM	GOLD	1641.62
10:34:29PM	FTSE	6907.24									Shambles
10:40:31PM	FRANCE	5600.2									Shambles
10:43:52PM	GERMANY	12542									Success
10:45:45PM	US500	3102.07	3090	3071	3034	3135	3154	3169	3193	3121	Shambles
10:48:59PM	DOW	26872.7									Success
10:51:25PM	NASDAQ	8826.79									‘cess
10:53:43PM	JAPAN	22191									‘cess

 

 

26/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7042 points. Change of 0.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,595,554,712 a change of -16.85%

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

#Nasdaq #SP500 With a few UK stocks going ballistic due to China Virus activity, a glance at the US highlights a couple of shares enjoying time in the medical spotlight. #Moderna & #Cocrystal both deserve some examination, along with a reminder prices which go up fast can equally reverse with greater brutality.

In plain English, we’re focused on the numbers but remember checking out some fundamentals makes a lot of sense.

Moderna, at time of writing 24.5, has been quite encouraging, the share price needing trading beyond 26.6 dollars to enter a near term cycle to 29.29 dollars. If bettered, secondary calculates at 31.03 dollars though, to be fair, any enthusiastic publicity feels capable of driving the price to 36 dollars. We cannot calculate higher.

Visually, the proximity of our initial two target levels tends suggest the possibility of some hesitation around the 30 dollar mark. Any reversal needs break RED (currently 18) on the chart to justify hysterics, along with the risk of reversal to 9.95 and hopefully a rebound.

Cocrystal Pharma, presently 2.15, looks very capable of some excitement with trades now above 2.5 dollars as growth to an initial 3.69 appears possible. In the event this level is exceeded, our secondary calculates at an amazing (and therefore questionable) 5.46. Our in-house cautious nature makes us hesitant, when describing a scenario allowing a price to more than double but such is the nature of the current panic, it’d be churlish not to admit this possibility.

The price would require to slip below Blue, presently 1.45, to suggest an alternative investment in running shoes!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:22PM	BRENT	54.28									‘cess
9:35:59PM	GOLD	1635.07									Success
9:41:41PM	FTSE	6951.4									Success
9:50:11PM	FRANCE	5603.7									Shambles
10:29:52PM	GERMANY	12649									Success
10:34:34PM	US500	3135.02	3132	3123	3032	3157	3167	3186	3196	3122	Success
10:38:13PM	DOW	27170									Success
10:42:30PM	NASDAQ	8858	8802	8740	8374	8930	8929	9004.5	9072	8836	Success
10:49:11PM	JAPAN	22138									Shambles

 

 

25/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7017 points. Change of -1.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,932,387,742 a change of 6.36%

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

#Gold #SP500 As we snuffle through the cold & flu season, it was interesting to note those shares which proved resilient, despite market wide hysteria apparently prompted by Coronavirus. We covered #Faron last November (link) and their share price has managed the opposite of catching a cold. Equally fascinating, reading “the common cold” is just one of the grouping covered by the word coronavirus, a respiratory term!

Of course, this means the current outbreak of sniffles in our part of Scotland is now described by schoolchildren as “coronavirus”, wanting face masks and preferably some time off school too…

A quick glance at Faron’s update on 6th Feb gives a potential reason for their current flamboyant share price, the word “coronavirus” popping up in the 3rd paragraph, attracting interest like politicians round a photo opportunity.

From the point at which the share closed (320p), we can calculate 396p as possible on the current cycle with secondary, if exceeded, coming in at 416p. Obviously, the proximity of these numbers tends suggest the potential of some stutters making themselves known. Longer term, we can even calculate 559p as possible but, to be fair, we’re on a bit of a wing and a prayer with such a price level.

Presently, the price needs break Red on the chart to spoil enthusiasm, this innocent line presently at 222p. Moves below risk a challenge of 180p with secondary, if broken, down at 51p.

We mentioned recently the dangers of wild price swings, making stop loss levels almost impossible on flamboyant shares. We need to mention, politely, the unpleasant reality of Faron as the share price is currently trending in a zone with “bottom” at 220p. It will not approach long term safety until the price manages exceed Blue on the chart.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:27:59PM	BRENT	55.74									Success
10:36:21PM	GOLD	1660.22	1651	1642	1626	1672	1690	1703.75	1720	1672	Success
10:39:37PM	FTSE	7129									Success
10:42:18PM	FRANCE	5754.2									Shambles
10:52:42PM	GERMANY	12993									Success
10:57:18PM	US500	3228.42	3210	3183	3173	3254	3266	3283.5	3307	3224	Shambles
11:01:21PM	DOW	27975									Success
11:05:39PM	NASDAQ	9079.24									Shambles
11:09:27PM	JAPAN	22287									‘cess

 

24/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7156 points. Change of -3.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,457,826,437 a change of 17.05%

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

#Brent #Dax Starting the week with a couple of shares featured in our emails couldn’t produce two utterly different trade histories. Unilever, currently a boring 46 quid and Novacyt showing a vibrant 106p. Despite our previous glance at Novacyt forcing us to admit would couldn’t calculate beyond 124p, the share price cheerfully ignored all our sums, managing to spend a couple of sessions at nearly 220p.

One side effect of this buoyant behaviour is to allow some wild price swings, making the concept of a “stop loss” virtually impossible. At time of writing, NCYT are trading around 106p, needing above just 114p to apparently trigger movements toward an initial 137p. If exceeded, secondary is a visually pleasing 161p though, to be honest, if the company produce positive news (or internet chat rooms provoke positive vibes) the share price could now attempt 229p.

Unfortunately, there’s another side to this optimism. The price only needs below 62p to enter a cycle with a bottom (hopefully) at 39p. We cannot calculate below such a level.

Unilever  With a growth curve which is rather more conventional than Novacyt’s, Unilever is no less spectacular and it seems a few folk invested since the lows of 2009 are starting to question if it’s the time to take some profit. Perhaps it was the blip below the uptrend on July 8th giving slight concern?

All to often, this sort of signal (circled) does provide early warning for trouble ahead but sometimes, it can ‘simply’ be the case of the market opting to capture a short position prior to a near term rise. After all, the market is in business to make money and is never charitable!

However, our take on the blip downward suggests it wasn’t a warning of evil times ahead, instead it appears more possible movement next above 4730 shall see the share price rise to 5033p. If bettered, our secondary calculation comes in at 5471p and a new all time high.

Visually, an attempt at the 50 quid level is believable but we suspect the secondary of 5471p shall need positive FTSE100 conditions to make it a reality.

If trouble is planned, now below 4310 shall give ample cause for concern, taking the price into a region where an initial drop to 3786 is expected. If broken, secondary calculates at a less likely bottom of 2604p.

In summary, we’re inclined to believe 50 quid as possible on the immediate trading cycle but suspect beyond such a level will be difficult, at least until the Brexit hiatus is complete.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:22:54PM	BRENT	58	57.32	56.9	55.98	58.19	58.63	59.06	59.64	58	Success
2:36:00PM	GOLD	1643.71									Success
2:39:05PM	FTSE	7410									Success
2:41:14PM	FRANCE	6021.2									Success
2:55:28PM	GERMANY	13563	13496	13464	13386	13586	13690	13754	13840	13610	Success
6:05:19PM	US500	3338.67									‘cess
6:12:34PM	DOW	28999.7
6:15:02PM	NASDAQ	9447.62									Success
6:20:51PM	JAPAN	23209									Success

 

 

21/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7403 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,371,450,688 a change of 1.87%

20/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7436 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,254,655,479 a change of 11.64%

19/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7457 points. Change of 1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,602,530,865 a change of -6.87%

18/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7362 points. Change of -0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,015,855,072 a change of 44.99%

17/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7433 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,149,027,770 a change of -24.37%

14/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7409 points. Change of -0.58%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,485,879,910 a change of -17.68%

13/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -1.09%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,664,066,181 a change of 30.17%