#FTSE #Gold A week ago, we thought we risked being panic merchants by giving criteria postulating an early warning scenario for a FTSE drop to 5,850 points. Given the UK index has managed lose nearly 700 points, it has dragged itself into a region where 5,850 is no longer such a daft idea. But crucially, all we have seen is early warning. We have yet to witness, (from our perspective) confirmation.
In fact, if we drag out the chart from the market plunge of from Oct 2008 until Mar 2009 and get busy with a Red crayon, the market has yet to break through the final uptrend, the one which will suggest the recovery (?) from the lows of 2009 has failed. Unfortunately, the market is getting close and closure below 6,700 will tend tick a fairly major box for some troubled times ahead. Such a scenario allows continued eventual reversal to 6,420 and a deluxe ticket into the Land of Lower Lows.
If 6,420 makes an appearance, we shall be presenting a drop target below such a level at 5,850 points. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom (hopefully) of 5,260 points. Alas, there is an unfortunate aspect to such a level which allows calculation of a 3rd level. It’s a market bottom, ultimately, at 3,655. Rather scary to note this is marginally higher than the low of 2009.
In summary, it’s early days, despite how utterly foul the last few sessions have proven. Perhaps it’s also worth noting drops this severe can also reverse with similar strength, if conditions prove to change. As winter draws to a close, it’s easy to suspect (hope) a respiratory virus shall find it difficult to sustain dominance of headlines?
Near term, for the FTSE for FRIDAY, we shall be watching Japan through the night, hoping it ends positive. If it does, this will send a pretty strong signal Europe and the US should expect a respite on Friday. Near term, above 6,848 points is supposed to bring recovery to an initial 6,924 points. If exceeded, secondary works out at 6,964 points though, realistically, any positive sentiment could easily drive the market toward 7,106 points. If triggered, the tightest stop needs be just under Thursdays low of 6729 points.
Alternately, weakness now below 6729 allows reversal to an initial 6,580. If broken, secondary is at 6,455.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
10:22:35PM |
BRENT |
50.89 |
50.38 |
49.895 |
51.8 |
52.46 |
53.07 |
50.96 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:24:31PM |
GOLD |
1645.56 |
1634.6 |
1626.5 |
1649 |
1660.38 |
1670.1 |
1641 | |||
|
10:35:04PM |
FTSE |
6644.63 |
6614 |
6541 |
6720 |
6846 |
6877 |
6796 |
Success | ||
|
10:38:22PM |
FRANCE |
5391 |
5383 |
5319 |
5492 |
5511 |
5545 |
5457 |
Success | ||
|
10:43:27PM |
GERMANY |
12083.5 |
12032 |
11891 |
12230 |
12170 |
12269 |
12042 |
‘cess | ||
|
10:50:42PM |
US500 |
2950.47 |
2944 |
2917 |
3004 |
3004 |
3023.5 |
2954 |
Success | ||
|
10:57:08PM |
DOW |
25538.5 |
25441 |
25415 |
25745 |
25745 |
25820.5 |
25540 |
Success | ||
|
11:01:41PM |
NASDAQ |
8354.62 |
8327 |
8153 |
8470 |
8470 |
8483 |
8370 |
Success | ||
|
11:06:24PM |
JAPAN |
21158 |
21138 |
21097 |
21321 |
21740 |
22315.5 |
21540 |
Success |
