#Brent #Dax Starting the week with a couple of shares featured in our emails couldn’t produce two utterly different trade histories. Unilever, currently a boring 46 quid and Novacyt showing a vibrant 106p. Despite our previous glance at Novacyt forcing us to admit would couldn’t calculate beyond 124p, the share price cheerfully ignored all our sums, managing to spend a couple of sessions at nearly 220p.
One side effect of this buoyant behaviour is to allow some wild price swings, making the concept of a “stop loss” virtually impossible. At time of writing, NCYT are trading around 106p, needing above just 114p to apparently trigger movements toward an initial 137p. If exceeded, secondary is a visually pleasing 161p though, to be honest, if the company produce positive news (or internet chat rooms provoke positive vibes) the share price could now attempt 229p.
Unfortunately, there’s another side to this optimism. The price only needs below 62p to enter a cycle with a bottom (hopefully) at 39p. We cannot calculate below such a level.
Unilever With a growth curve which is rather more conventional than Novacyt’s, Unilever is no less spectacular and it seems a few folk invested since the lows of 2009 are starting to question if it’s the time to take some profit. Perhaps it was the blip below the uptrend on July 8th giving slight concern?
All to often, this sort of signal (circled) does provide early warning for trouble ahead but sometimes, it can ‘simply’ be the case of the market opting to capture a short position prior to a near term rise. After all, the market is in business to make money and is never charitable!
However, our take on the blip downward suggests it wasn’t a warning of evil times ahead, instead it appears more possible movement next above 4730 shall see the share price rise to 5033p. If bettered, our secondary calculation comes in at 5471p and a new all time high.
Visually, an attempt at the 50 quid level is believable but we suspect the secondary of 5471p shall need positive FTSE100 conditions to make it a reality.
If trouble is planned, now below 4310 shall give ample cause for concern, taking the price into a region where an initial drop to 3786 is expected. If broken, secondary calculates at a less likely bottom of 2604p.
In summary, we’re inclined to believe 50 quid as possible on the immediate trading cycle but suspect beyond such a level will be difficult, at least until the Brexit hiatus is complete.
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
2:22:54PM |
BRENT |
58 |
57.32 |
56.9 |
55.98 |
58.19 |
58.63 |
59.06 |
59.64 |
58 |
Success |
|
2:36:00PM |
GOLD |
1643.71 |
Success | ||||||||
|
2:39:05PM |
FTSE |
7410 |
Success | ||||||||
|
2:41:14PM |
FRANCE |
6021.2 |
Success | ||||||||
|
2:55:28PM |
GERMANY |
13563 |
13496 |
13464 |
13386 |
13586 |
13690 |
13754 |
13840 |
13610 |
Success |
|
6:05:19PM |
US500 |
3338.67 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
6:12:34PM |
DOW |
28999.7 | |||||||||
|
6:15:02PM |
NASDAQ |
9447.62 |
Success | ||||||||
|
6:20:51PM |
JAPAN |
23209 |
Success |
