Author: T&T Staff

#Nasdaq #CAC40 As the US President is visiting the UK, it made sense to review the maker of the aircraft in which he flies the world. If only the UK still had an indigenous maker of commercial jets, our PM could be poncing around the British Empire in an elegant DH Comet. Or half a Concorde (it was 50% French)!

As the throwaway headline above from Google News highlights, Boeing (currently trading at 343) do not need seek problems at present but their share price is proving fairly resilient – so far anyway. We do have issue with movements this year as they suggest a future descent below 330 shall attempt a landing down at 317. We expect any bounce from this level to prove short lived as there’s a heck of an argument favouring 275 as bottom. Hopefully.

A glance at the chart immediately throws up issues with an ambition at 275.

Firstly, and quite importantly, in the event 275 makes an appearance, the share will have broken the uptrend since 2016.

Secondly, and very importantly, if 275 appears, it presents a “lower low” in the grand scheme of things, taking the share into territory where a long term logical bottom is down at 175.

Third (this one is obscure) the visuals indicate the share price has now real “history” at 275. This is the sort of thing, when if a share has previously hit a high (or a low) there will be ample reason to anticipate market activity when it next revisits such a level. The best we’ve got is a couple of days in December 2017 when the price hit this level and basically did nothing interesting. We’d be hard pushed to invent a reason why this will prove important.

Collectively, the foregoing encompasses sufficient reason to distrust 275 if – and only IF – it makes an appearance. Do remember none of our criteria are yet present to justify such a dollop of misery for the future.

We suspect the circled area on the chart represents Boeings most recent aircraft incident. It feels very like the market decided, “okay, let’s start a new trend” at this point and thus, we’ve painted a Blue line. At present Boeing require better 358 just to indicate the potential of a climbing cycle to 386. If we adhere to our demand for “higher highs”, only above 365 does it actually become safe to believe in 386 as a future potential. Secondary, if such a level exceeded, calculates at an improbable 429.

We deem this improbable as it takes the price above the circled area on the chart, carrying a subliminal suggestion all is okay again in Boeings world.

For now, we’re just not sure the market has figured out a plan for this aircraft maker as the share price is on a wing and a prayer. (sorry, couldn’t resist)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:09:12PM	BRENT	61.24
10:10:45PM	GOLD	1325.46
10:13:38PM	FTSE	7228.28									‘cess
10:16:36PM	FRANCE	5275.3	5189	5178	5144	5241	5279	5286.5	5332	5250	Success
10:25:12PM	GERMANY	11992.71									Success
10:29:02PM	US500	2808									Success
10:32:05PM	DOW	25408									Success
10:34:07PM	NASDAQ	7202	7124	7095.5	7060	7180	7202	7207.25	7246	7131	‘cess
10:36:49PM	JAPAN	20726									Success

 

4/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7214 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,134,245,943 a change of 11.89%

#Gold #SP500 We received a few emails, asking if Kier was at “bottom” following the thrashing their share price received. We suspect last months news of their Finance Director “stepping down” should have provided sufficient warning something was brewing but a minus 41% day was not fun to watch.

Amazingly, there is a chance it has indeed bottomed at 157p and we’d normally hope for a bounce at this level. There is one important warning worthy of consideration and it’s fairly simple. If, for any reason, the price now CLOSES below 157p, we can calculate 70p with some bottoming potentials. And that’s it. Anything else produced now is prefaced with a minus sign.

In normal circumstances, we’d hope 157p shall indeed produce some sort of rebound and anything now continuing above 176.5p calculates with an initial target at 187p. If exceeded, our secondary comes in at 195p. Only in the event of 195p being exceeded dare we start to suspect a rebound shall prove genuine as a surge to 234p becomes possible.

Instead, our suspicion is of 157p being used as “bottom” in the days ahead, essentially permitting the price to bounce around for a while within the 157 to 195 range. By any standards, this looks a fairly useful trading range. But do remember, below 157p and our last chance saloon calculates at 70p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:44:49PM	BRENT	60.65
9:47:36PM	GOLD	1325.18	1315	1311.5	1306	1322	1329	1333	1337	1317	Success
9:51:28PM	FTSE	7181.49									‘cess
9:54:52PM	FRANCE	5212									‘cess
9:57:37PM	GERMANY	11781									‘cess
10:00:50PM	US500	2753.47	2728	2719.5	2705	2756	2759	2770	2784	2730	Success
10:03:34PM	DOW	24913.3									‘cess
10:14:41PM	NASDAQ	7007									Success
10:17:06PM	JAPAN	20466

3/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7184 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,482,318,387 a change of -12.64%

SHELL #Brent #DAX When we last reviewed Shell, we’d expected a bounce at 2167 but, thankfully, the share price rebounded just above this point at 2200p. Perhaps it indicates strength? Crude Oil prices are being hammered, so we should really reviewed Shells potentials again.

The immediate situation is slightly dangerous as weakness now below 2440 suggests some travel coming down do 2359p next. Visually, this is pretty non threatening but issues start to develop with closure below such a point. Essentially, it opens the door for further relaxation down to 2177p and this time, we suspect it shall hit.

The chart below highlights a major issue, should 2177 make an appearance. The price shall break below the uptrend since 2016 and thus, enter ambiguous territory where a series of severe drops become possible, potentially down to 1725p or worse. Some good news comes from Shells traditional strength as there are suggestions 2177 should prove capable of providing a realistic rebound.

Even from an immediate perspective, we’d have considerable hope if Shell somehow found sufficient excuse to better BLUE on the chart, presently at 2568p. This would, quite realistically, move the price into a region where a new high of 2984p becomes target.

For now, we suspect it shall prove worth watching in the months ahead for 2177 taking the stage.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:09:48PM	BRENT	61.72	61.37	59.655	57.94	65.75	65.75	66.515	68.23	63	Success
8:12:25PM	GOLD	1305.85									Success
8:14:08PM	FTSE	7150.43									Success
8:16:41PM	FRANCE	5201.5									Success
8:19:51PM	GERMANY	11710	11659	11626	11524	11844	11832	11891	11971	11670	Success
8:22:03PM	US500	2813.43									Success
8:25:36PM	DOW	24806									Success
8:27:46PM	NASDAQ	7134									Success
8:31:22PM	JAPAN	20428									Success

 

31/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7161 points. Change of -0.79%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,275,892,919 a change of 35.09%

Just thinking aloud,#DeLaRue (LSE:DLAR) dare not be regarded as cheap until 234p. Currently at 302p. But if 234p breaks, we shall tend think of 15p as being cheap. As for The Deer, our market analysis received 10% of the views this snapshot of a bambi achieved.

Go figure!

FTSE for FRIDAY #CAC40 #DOW

We remain humbled at the volume of folk who read our Friday missive, visiting from all around the world. For the first time ever, we get to say “hi” to folk in Zimbabwe, making a surprise visit last week. Googles Analytics service remains addictive, giving the excuse for a wasted 30 minutes.

As for the FTSE for Friday, we lack confidence for the day. In theory, above 7232 should now promote a visit to 7245 points initially. Secondary, if bettered on the first upward surge, calculates at a more useful 7274 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 7198 points.

What happens if 7198 breaks?

We’d expect weakness down to an initial 7180 points. If broken, secondary is at 7147 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 7230 points.

The water is further muddied by the fact Friday is the last day of a month. For some reason, this often sees logic abandoned, faster than a politicians stance on Brexit. Our feeling earlier in the week for to expect the FTSE to eventually reverse and hit a “bottom” at 7106 points. Perhaps some indicators are due to be released which shall justify a really grotty end to the month.

Additionally, it is worth pointing out the FTSE has now slithered below the uptrend for 2019, this tending suggest long positions risk trouble unless the index betters 7137 points, regaining the trend.

We’re braced for the worst.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:02:55PM	BRENT	65.21									Success
11:05:37PM	GOLD	1288.61									‘cess
11:07:22PM	FTSE	7232.45									Success
11:09:36PM	FRANCE	5258.7	5228	5200	5188	5260	5260	5269	5292	5230	Success
11:12:18PM	GERMANY	11926.81
11:14:19PM	US500	2790.42
11:15:56PM	DOW	25179	25053	24990	24920	25154	25221	25334	25468	25060
11:17:52PM	NASDAQ	7248.5
11:19:29PM	JAPAN	20952

 

30/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7218 points. Change of 0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,645,838,804 a change of -15.45%

#SP500 #DAX Our last in-depth look at Sirius was back in February at 20p (link here) and it has been getting seriously close to our 13p target. Interestingly, since their Open Offer deal, a few pundits are suggesting the share price is now undervalued, even proposing some interesting rise potentials. So, is it at bottom?

To be honest, we’re not sure. The price is certainly hovering at the 15p level, giving an indication a “floor” has been found. With our distrust of the way in which the market treats investors, we’d be uncomfortable suggesting it’s at bottom, if only due to the price floundering around in “lower low” territory. There can be little doubt trades now below 14.95p should provoke reversal to 13p and visually a bounce.

Consider this. If the price were somehow to close below 13p, actual bottom should prove to be at around 4p!

The folk who believe in chart patterns should not be confused with those who follow horoscopes or technical indicators. Quite often, a complex sounding chart pattern is simply describing a logical mental process. The current one potentially effecting SXX is circled in RED on the chart. The first peak is the “Hey, I don’t think it will get higher, I’m taking profit” sentiment. The second peak echoes the initial one. And the third peak is fairly simple; “It’s had a good run, don’t trust it now, I’m out of here”.

At this point, another force takes over; “Ooops, it has broken the immediate uptrend again. Think I’ll just wait and see.”

And before you know it, you’ve got a classic Head & Shoulders formation, one which points at reversal to 4p eventually. Essentially, it’s entirely based on how a trader will view price movements, along with the emotional cycle. More often than not, it works out, even if you have to squint a bit to recognise the chart pattern.

Our own thinking is of reversal coming to 13p anytime soon, along with a bounce at such a point. The RED uptrend dates back to 2010 and should prove perfectly capable for traders to pile in, with the belief such a long term uptrend must provoke a rebound.

At present, any rebound exceeding 22p should bring a visit to an initial 25.5p. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 35p in the future. In fact, we can even compute a best case scenario at 46p, a point where we’d again stir the tea leaves.

For now, it feels like 13p shall prove worth watching for.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:33:06PM	BRENT	68.18									Success
10:34:48PM	GOLD	1280.47
10:38:02PM	FTSE	7187.2									Success
10:40:04PM	FRANCE	5234.5									Success
10:48:57PM	GERMANY	11856.68	11809	11774	11658	11930	11961	11988.5	12049	11846	Success
10:55:07PM	US500	2780.02	2765	2747	2732	2805	2806	2817.5	2835	2778	Success
11:01:20PM	DOW	25105									Success
11:03:48PM	NASDAQ	7208.92									Success
11:05:23PM	JAPAN	20897									Success

 

29/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7185 points. Change of -1.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,494,839,915 a change of -51.63%

28/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,358,899,271 a change of 108.69%

Galliford Try #Gold #SP500 The often confused “we want to buy you, then you want to buy us” events surrounding Galliford Try and Bovis appear to be concluded for now. We last reviewed Galliford in February last year, when the price was 800p. Our initial drop potential was 696p – achieved – with secondary (when broken) at 308p. Any changes?

We’ve a slight suspicion Bovis may have dodged a bullet here as the share price is trading below its last ditch uptrend since 2010. There are a couple of important thoughts pertaining to its current position. Weakness now below 499p looks capable of entering a cycle down to 431p initially. We’d hope for a bounce at such a level but if broken, secondary calculates at 265p.

Rather worse is the calculation of the share price now trading in a region where “ultimate” bottom (the level we cannot calculate below) is at 39p. Obviously, this is the sort of ridiculous drop which usually requires some really grotty news issued.

At present, the share requires better 850p, just to signal the immediate pace of descent has eased. Such a miracle allows recovery to an initial 1079p. If bettered, secondary is at a longer term 1385p.

For now, it appears dangerous but perhaps worth watching for 265p making an appearance at some point.  After all, folk will look at the lows of 2009 and 2010 and judge, for this reason alone, a bounce can be expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:48:18PM	BRENT	68.8									‘cess
10:50:23PM	GOLD	1279.5	1276	1273	1270	1281	1285	1288	1292	1278	‘cess
11:00:52PM	FTSE	7248.41
11:03:00PM	FRANCE	5285.2									‘cess
11:04:48PM	GERMANY	11982									‘cess
11:06:32PM	US500	2802.12	2799	2786	2768	2827	2840	2850	2867	2819	Success
11:08:43PM	DOW	25353									Shambles
11:10:24PM	NASDAQ	7282.65
11:12:13PM	JAPAN	20989									Shambles

28/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7268 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,358,899,271 a change of 108.69%

24/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7277 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,443,076,043 a change of -8.12%