#FTSE #DOW Numbers can prove bothersome. For instance, the UK has 22% of the US’s population yet suffers 50% of its daily death rate. In America, unemployment is heading toward 20% and retail sales have dropped most on record. And in the closing minutes of the futures market on Thursday 16th, the FTSE rose by 80 points while Wall St rose by 300 points. Germany tallied up 125 points in the closing minutes of the day and Japan pulled 200 points from nowhere!
It’s true to remind folk the stock market is not the economy, more a reflection of how people are betting on the future. With so many people at home, doubtless glued to Bloomberg and CNBC on telly, we start to suspect the betting market is doing quite nicely as a result. Of course, if an economy has gone down the pan, so shall the stock market but we suspect we’re seeing the effects of a belief that “things shall get better” reflected in market movements.
The alternative could be true, people are just stupid and denying the evidence before them.
From a personal standpoint, I prefer to hope things shall get better eventually. The only little problem shall doubtless be any market recovery treated as “factored in” with the resultant scenario of positive news failing to budge the markets.
A brief reality check ensued during the day. After 10 years, a garden strimmer engine refused to stay running when it was finally awoken from its winter slumber. Even twitching a finger toward the throttle made the engine stall, suggesting some time was needed on YouTube, learning how to clean out the carburettor. After watching no less than 3 videos, a viewing experience which safely consumed an hour, there was apparently only one fix. You do not clean carburettors, you spend between 8 and 12 pounds and buy a new one. Following a further visit to Ebay, plenty were available from China only.
It transpires you can still dismantle a carb, clean it, assemble it, and the strimmer will run reliably. The downside hit hard, all excuses to avoid tackling the edges of the grass drowned out with the noise of a cheerfully burbling engine.
The reality check? There was absolutely no way a component was being ordered from China.
There are now two, quite different, game plans for Friday.
- As for the FTSE for Friday, unfortunately, we need a return to the horror of numbers. The FTSE closed Thursday at 5,642 points but FTSE Futures after-hours surged up to 5,728 points. We believe something quite painful risks happening as there’s a very real risk of the FTSE being spiked up to somewhere around 5,725 points at the open on Friday. If this is indeed the case, movement above 5,725 claims to be capable of trying for an initial 5,740 with secondary, if exceeded, at 5,799 points.
- If the market is not spiked up at the open, above 5,662 points is supposed to be capable of trying for an initial 5,698 points. If bettered, our secondary works out at 5,724 points.
We prefer Option 2 but suspect neither shall occur. Instead, another danger rears its head.
On the basis the market is spiked up at the open, perhaps to just above 5,700 points, there’s a reasonable argument favouring some reversals should be anticipated. If this is indeed the case, reversals taking the UK below Thursdays 5,577 risk reversal to an initial 5,500 points. If broken, secondary is down at 5,398 points.
Sorry about the foregoing. It’s as complex as a Soap storyline on TV but we suspect the surprise rise in market futures shall prove to be one of these absurd events, a need for the market to go up, so it can go down. Have a good weekend.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:45:36PM | BRENT | 30.32 | 29.16 | 28.655 | 30.3 | 30.95 | 31.57 | 29.56 | |||
| 9:47:01PM | GOLD | 1720.33 | 1707 | 1697.5 | 1726 | 1738 | 1746 | 1711 | ‘cess | ||
| 9:49:26PM | FTSE | 5693 | 5557 | 5511 | 5588 | 5703 | 5732 | 5639 | ‘cess | ||
| 9:51:44PM | FRANCE | 4354.2 | 4333 | 4318 | 4390 | 4385 | 4396.5 | 4333 | ‘cess | ||
| 9:54:02PM | GERMANY | 10436 | 10166 | 10105.5 | 10366 | 10452 | 10525.5 | 10292 | Shambles | ||
| 10:26:59PM | US500 | 2865 | 2780 | 2755.5 | 2817 | 2875 | 2885.5 | 2827 | Success | ||
| 10:29:52PM | DOW | 24083 | 23386 | 23099.5 | 23612 | 24101 | 24210.75 | 23699 | Success | ||
| 10:32:01PM | NASDAQ | 8906.37 | 8597 | 8475 | 8709 | 8907 | 9051.75 | 8500 | Success | ||
| 10:34:03PM | JAPAN | 19422 | 19190 | 19084 | 19250 | 19432 | 19490.5 | 19200 | ‘cess |
16/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5628 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,858,772,454 a change of -15.73%
15/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5597 points. Change of -3.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,952,759,094 a change of 5.89%
14/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5791 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,566,152,057 a change of -6.93%
9/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 2.91%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,054,916,655 a change of 16.86%
8/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5677 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,036,851,647 a change of -23.98%
7/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5704 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,941,411,250 a change of 0%
6/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5582 points. Change of 0%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,188,185,847 a change of 0%