Amazon com (NASDAQ:AMZN) for 1/10/2020

#Brent #Gold There’s little doubt 2020 shall be remembered as “The Year When Everything Changed”. Attending a funeral in Scotland, the service restricted to 20 people, an intimidating honour guard of cars lining the final route, little contact between people, a friend was laid to rest. This, the new normal, only lacking the body delivered in an Amazon cardboard box to complete the picture.

It’s surprising how easy the transit to internet shopping has become, concepts of shopping lists forgotten as items are “added to baskets” when remembered and ideally, remembering to pay and complete the transaction too. There must be other folk who’ve guiltily explained that yes, I did remember to order that and yes, it’s still in my basket. Who needs toilet paper anyway?

 

Amazon’s share price has massively enjoyed considerable benefit from the changed habits. Surprisingly, eBay has not yet experienced such exuberance though, should eBay exceed the 62 dollar mark, the words “Go Long and Wait” shall not be far away! Unlike eBay, Amazon feel poised for further price gains anytime soon, thanks to movements during September.

Above 3,213 now looks capable of movement to an initial 3,502 and visually, some hesitation is expected at such a level, due to the price matching the highs at the start of September. With closure above 3,502, continued growth to 3,828 calculates as possible. At present, we cannot calculate above 3,828 with the result, should Amazon exceed such a level, it also enters a new world where everything changes for the price.

 

Obviously we can dust down an alternate scenario, if everything starts to go a little wrong. Weakness below 2,950 risks reversal to an initial 2,654 with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 2,363 dollars. At present, we’re fairly enthusiastic at the prospect of 3,502 making an appearance.

Hey, chart goes here

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
9:40:46PM BRENT 42.04 41.18 40.685 39.53 41.79 42.5 42.725 43.36 41.53 Success
10:09:19PM GOLD 1886.1 1881 1876 1867 1892 1903 1906.5 1915 1887 Shambles
10:12:46PM FTSE 5850.54 Sorry
10:15:30PM FRANCE 4804.5 Shambles
10:24:08PM GERMANY 12731 ‘cess
10:32:08PM US500 3351.52 Success
10:34:26PM DOW 27734 Success
10:37:06PM NASDAQ 11385 Success
10:39:55PM JAPAN 23256 Success
30/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5866 points. Change of -0.53%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,228,309,512 a change of 10.67%
29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%
28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%
25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%
24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%

Easyjet for 30/09/2020

#FTSE #Japan Airline price movements often make as much sense as UK politicians talking about Covid-19 rules. #Easyjet, the subject of frequent media speculation, enjoy a share price which is wandering around with similar levels of control to a chimp flying a Sopwith Camel. Essentially, things feel they will not end well. In the case of Easyjet, a “glass floor” has formed on the share price, one we feel shall crack!

 

The problem level appears to be at 477p with price movement below such a level risking triggering some quite traumatic falls. Since the March pandemic price drop, Easyjet has failed regain any of the damage, instead maintaining a holding pattern around the 477p level. The immediate situation is dangerous as weakness below 477p indicates coming price reversals down to an initial 419p with secondary, if (when) broken at 353p and perhaps a bounce.

However, should the share price opt to visit the 353p level, it enters the dark lands of “lower lows”. In such a region, the wrong sort of publicity could sharply propel the share down to a bottom of 117p and this is obviously a concern, since it’s unlikely airlines shall publish promising financial or passenger numbers for this dreadful year. Visually a visit to 117p makes little sense as the last time this company saw such a price level was 16 years ago!

We cannot calculate below 117p.

 

If we chose to search for movements which shall hopefully indicate some price recovery, the earliest hint of sanity resides at 540p as movement above such a level suggests price recovery to a pretty tame looking 598p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 718p and with closure above such a level, things start to look promising for the future. To get real, we’d require run analysis again at such a point but the 11 quid level looks easily attainable.

Hey, chart goes here

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:29:09PM BRENT 41.37 Success
10:32:13PM GOLD 1897.81 ‘cess
10:34:18PM FTSE 5898.5 5881 5870 5840 5912 5926 5944 5972 5883 Success
10:36:06PM FRANCE 4825.2
10:37:58PM GERMANY 12830
10:49:22PM US500 3338
10:51:38PM DOW 27498
10:53:43PM NASDAQ 11333
10:55:53PM JAPAN 23419 23332 23298.5 23199 23481 23597 23635 23714 23454 ‘cess

 

 

 

29/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,724,132,311 a change of -0.94%
28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%
25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%
24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%

Valirx Plc for 29/09/2020

#Gold #Nasdaq Every now and then, a share features in our emails which provokes an instant dislike. Valirx starts the week, waving an enormous red flag thanks to its price behaviour over the years. We’ve written previously about our dislike for “Share Splits”, a method by which the market manipulates a price to make a share sound more respectable. In the case of LSE:VAL, they cottoned onto this wheeze initially in 2007, magically making a 0.2p into a 6p share with a 30:1 share split.

Did it help?

Nope, not in the slightest. By May 2015, another attempt at “respectability” saw the share enter Harry Potter land, a wave of a wand bringing the price from 0.1p to 12.5p, thanks to a 125:1 share split.

Finally, in April of this year, yet another “Share Split” of 40:1 (ie; for every 40 shares you have, we shall now call it 1 share) brought the price to 4p. This time, thanks to a pandemic along with a market eager to find a company in the medical field successfully active in the Covid-19 arena, Valirx price has finally shown some movement which looks genuine. Unfortunately, this repeated consolidation of shares has created a situation where the price will need achieve £2,000 per share just to allow the suckers from 13 years ago to break even.

Equally, £30 per share will allow folk from 5 years ago to break even!

But this year has been different, so far anyway.

 

The immediate situation is not ideal as weakness next below 25p calculates with the risk of reversal to 20p and hopefully a rebound. The implication, should 20p break, is of travel yet again to the realms below 1p (at best) as we cannot reliably calculate an ultimate bottom.

However, price movement since their most recent share split has broken the mould and despite an absolutely foul start to this week, we shall be interested if the price manages above 39p anytime soon as this is supposed to provoke recovery to an initial 49p. It’s above this level where things get useful as 69p calculates as possible. Beyond such a level is liable to prove equally useful. Ideally we shall need run the numbers again but currently, a longer term attraction comes from 91p.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:33:40PM BRENT 42.89
10:36:23PM GOLD 1881.8 1848 1840.5 1826 1867 1884 1891.5 1906 1864 Shambles
10:38:24PM FTSE 5947.81 ‘cess
10:40:33PM FRANCE 4837 Success
10:44:42PM GERMANY 12900 Success
10:46:37PM US500 3357.97 Success
10:49:57PM DOW 27644.4 Success
10:51:52PM NASDAQ 11402.52 11179 11148 11058 11302 11418 11458.5 11718 11238 Success
10:54:16PM JAPAN 23509 ‘cess

 

28/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5927 points. Change of 1.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,768,816,378 a change of 0.46%
25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%
24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%
18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%

Barclays for 28/09/2020

#DAX #BRENT Will Barclays ever become a Disney Princess? Stranger things have happened. Only today, while standing looking at a depressing pile of logs awaiting the attention of an axe, the writer was anointed with natures favour, finding himself frozen in place with a red squirrel on his shoulder! A couple of the things were squabbling noisily, the argument turning into a chase. Suddenly one changed course, running up my trousers and settling on my shoulder for a few seconds.

Abruptly, with a brief squirrel swearword at its opponent, it leapt onto a tree stump and ran off. The other squirrel just glared down at me.

To be honest, during the encounter, feeling like a Disney Princess was quite far from the mind. Instead terror at the suspicion of being mugged by two Red Squirrel.

Hey, chart goes here

As the unexpected squirrel reminded, strange things can happen in real life, so we’re looking (again) for any signal of redemption for Barclays share price. Our previous analysis three weeks ago suggested the potential of reversal to 95 initially with secondary, if broken, at 85p. In the period since, the lowest achieved has been 88p so perhaps this is an indication of implicit strength. To be honest, we’ve considerable doubts about this but we’d prefer examine early warning signs, should Barclays opt to return from the dark side and embrace its inner Disney Princess.

Presently trading around 91p, Barclays needs exceed 99p to promote the possibility of further recovery toward 103.5p. Obviously this is a pretty insignificant movement but above 103.5p will imply any bounce is real, ticking a pretty important box in our criteria. Above 103.5p and we can mention 113p as a fairly solid ambition, perhaps even 128p if positive market conditions prevail.

 

Unfortunately, this about exhausts our efforts to put a positive spin on things. The situation now exists of weakness below 88p risking triggering reversals to 82p next with secondary, if broken, at a painful bottom of 65p and hopefully a proper rebound. We’re a depressing feeling the share price intends reach 65p eventually.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
1:51:06PM BRENT 42.24 41.9 41.3 40.36 42.46 42.75 43.125 43.62 42
1:55:38PM GOLD 1862.29
1:59:26PM FTSE 5874
2:01:49PM FRANCE 4769
2:05:00PM GERMANY 12561.93 12455 12321.5 12150 12582 12588 12673.5 12786 12508
2:08:23PM US500 3295
2:12:22PM DOW 27146
2:14:38PM NASDAQ 11147
2:16:28PM JAPAN 23302

25/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5842 points. Change of 0.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,747,164,651 a change of -0.48%
24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%
18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%
17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%

FTSE for FRIDAY & GBPUSD for 25/09/2020

#FTSE #GBPUSD It’s easy to think of Sterling’s woes as being a Brexit thing or a Covid thing but the harsh reality of the decline in the pounds strength dates back to 2007 and the start of the financial crash. The chart below spells out this drama with painful clarity, GBPUSD failed to recover from the crash, steadily edging lower in the period since.

We’ve been predicting parity (or worse) for this pair, quite literally for years. The market has proven fairly rigid with its 13 year Blue downtrend with a simple glance indicating the relationship requires exceed 1.34 at present to suggest something game changing is happening. Needless to say, we’ve our own collection of mumbo jumbo reasons to distrust something as obvious as a trend line. Instead, we can calculate GBPUSD needs above 1.39 to cancel the chances of parity making an appearance eventually. In such a miraculous event, we can point to recovery to 1.53 initially with secondary, if exceeded, an amazing sounding 1.71. The surprising thing about the secondary calculation is it’s quite pleasing visually, matching a peak level from 2014 and suggesting a glass ceiling awaits.

Unfortunately, we’re not terribly optimistic, entirely due to the long term threat of parity.

We feel it more likely this relationship shall founder below 1.21, triggering sharp reversal to an initial 1.11 and taking the pair into a zone where our secondary longer term calculation works out at 1.01 and hopefully “bottom”.

Hey, chart goes here

FTSE for Friday (FTSE:UKX) The market did not complete Thursday in a happy place, making us fear Friday shall produce some continued FTSE misery. Weakness next below 5803 points (but don’t trust a spike down at the open) suggests reversals coming toward an initial 5757 points. If broken, our longer term (or later that day) secondary calculates at 5683 points! If triggered, the tightest stop is relatively sane at 5867 points. In fact, the risk/reward ratio is such we’re starting to wonder if a negative day shall occur.

The converse scenario comes, should the FTSE manage to stagger above 5867 points as this carries the potential of recovery to a useless 5886 points. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5938 points, taking the UK market into a region where optimism can easily provide a 3rd target level at 5980 points.

Hey, chart goes here

 

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
9:03:40PM BRENT 42.25 41.65 41.31 42.47 43 43.185 42
9:27:02PM GOLD 1870 1848 1844 1877 1877 1881 1853
9:56:05PM FTSE 5846 5801 5766 5867 5893 5913 5833 ‘cess
9:59:34PM FRANCE 4771.2 4743 4707.5 4800 4807 4824 4762
10:02:06PM GERMANY 12645 12513 12462.5 12649 12667 12714 12604
10:04:20PM US500 3252.02 3209 3195 3255 3267 3280 3239 Success
10:09:05PM DOW 26865 26539 26412 26881 27102 27170 26805 ‘cess
10:21:54PM NASDAQ 10932 10787 10746 10955 11036 11103.5 10822 ‘cess
10:24:21PM JAPAN 23147 23066 22980 23173 23180 23251.5 23070 Success

 

24/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5822 points. Change of -1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,769,890,114 a change of 0.59%
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%
18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%
17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%
16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

Saga Plc for 24/09/2020

#FTSE #DOW It’s been nearly a year since we produced some truly depressing numbers for #Saga’ future share price. (link)  The intervening period has seen the share live down to expectations, hitting and breaking our drop target of 14p. While this number represented an “ultimate” bottom, the period since the March covid-19 drop has produced some further potentials.

 

Unfortunately, none of these potentials are particularly encouraging!

 

The immediate situation is fairly grim, suggesting ongoing weakness below 11p risks reversals to an initial 5.5p and there’s a pretty good argument to hope for some sort of bounce, should such a level make an appearance. With closure below 5.5p, our “ultimate bottom” now works out at 0.25p. Whatever rot established itself for the share price certainly can look further than the pandemic, if seeking to apportion blame as the writing was on the wall for some time before the virus struck. However, there can be little doubt Saga’s target market will doubtless be avoiding congregating with flights and cruises, due to them also being the target market for Covid-19.

Since the start of September something “funny” has been going on with Saga’s share price as it has enjoyed a pretty well managed decline. Presently, the share needs trade above 20p to give hope for a miracle recovery, calculating with the potential of moves to an initial 30p with secondary, if exceeded, a longer term 43p.

We’re not hopeful.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:07:39PM BRENT 41.91 ‘cess
10:09:46PM GOLD 1863.98 Success
10:11:15PM FTSE 5864.37 5832 5814.5 5761 5899 5975 5990.5 6021 5907 Success
10:14:16PM FRANCE 4762 Success
10:27:25PM GERMANY 12558 Success
10:31:47PM US500 3240 Shambles
10:34:39PM DOW 26804 26770 26698 26421 26916 27242 27316.5 27520 27123 ‘cess
10:41:17PM NASDAQ 10824 Sorry
10:43:11PM JAPAN 23212 Success
23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%
18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%
17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%
16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%
15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

Avacta for 23/09/2020

#Nasdaq #France Despite the UK Prime Minister effectively cancelling Xmas, it became pretty evident he’s desperately hoping for a fast, efficient, and accurate method of testing for Covid-19. As a result, we thought we’d better revisit one of the companies we previously reported on in May, #Avacta. We puzzle why the UK does not already employ similar tests used in Italy, ones which feature a 15 minute delay at the airport while awaiting the test result?

 

However, internet chatrooms are alight with speculation about some near term share price optimism amongst companies involved in the testing sector, thanks in no small way to Boris’s speech to the nation on Tuesday. In the case of Avacta, we’ve slight hesitation in embracing optimism, due to the share price failing (just) to reach our previous secondary target level of 226p. A lunge at 215p was hopeful but failing to reach this target level carries the threat of inherent weakness.

Presently the share requires to trade below 150p to justify serious concern, this allowing weakness to establish toward an initial 137p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 117p.

 

However, if the man who killed Xmas has just delivered an early present to traders, we shall be inclined to optimism at any movement next above 177p as this calculates with the potential of a visit to an initial 196p. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 219p, a visually pleasing number marginally higher than achieved in May and taking the share price into a region which promises substantial longer term gains. As always, it’s “fingers crossed” time.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
11:08:17PM BRENT 42.19 ‘cess
11:10:29PM GOLD 1901.82
11:12:29PM FTSE 5884.6 Success
11:14:49PM FRANCE 4809.9 4761 4744.5 4714 4799 4821 4829.25 4839 4794 ‘cess
11:17:36PM GERMANY 12685.38
11:19:59PM US500 3308.02 ‘cess
11:23:14PM DOW 27312 ‘cess
11:26:02PM NASDAQ 11149 10919 10833.5 10708 11113 11207 11323.5 11538 11024 ‘cess
11:30:41PM JAPAN 23026
22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%
21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%
18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%
17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%
16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%
15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%
14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%