Shell Plc (LSE:SHEL) and the legend of price gains!

#Brent #Stox  We’ve an intense dislike of being positive about oil company share prices, simply due to the logical (but usually faulty) assumption oiler shares enjoy a direct correlation to the price of Crude Oil.  Sometimes this assumption is right for a while, sometimes not, and usually any perceived link diminishes faster than the smoke from one of these “vape” machines which are proving so popular. In the case of Shell, their share price has started to enact something which is quite interesting from our confused perspective.

The level at which the share price broke the RED uptrend was around 2633p. Since then, the price has mucked around to a degree and now actually has closed a session above the level of trend break. In accordance with our “Book of Rules”, this should prove significant, essentially suggesting this historical Red trend since 2020 should be ignored as it’s no longer viable. In terms of future share price calculations, this throws a fairly major spanner in the works as we dare not rely on price fluctuations against the Red trend to calculate future potentials. Our in-house logic is fairly basic, giving rise to a thought that if the market doesn’t respect the trend, why should we?

It’s easy to become pedantic about this sort of nonsense but, invariably, when a share price exceeds the level of trend break, it proves (to us) the prior trend was a load of BS! In other words, the Shell share price uptrend since the contrived pandemic low of 2020 was a load of fictional rubbish and should now be ignored. We’ve painted another line in a colour the software assures is Magenta, basically a Hail Mary hope the market shall adhere to such an imaginary instrument. In truth, “the market” should be accurately reflected as “traders who want to believe”, due to everyone searching for a new god to follow.

Our own god is less forgiving, demanding we ignore a prior Red uptrend when a share price exceeds it. To be blunt, the frequency of this happening has tended engrave “the rule” in Big Granite Letters in our in-house assumptions, often creating scenario which must be believed.

 

In the case of Shell,  it’s currently the case where above 2674p should trigger movement to an initial 2761p with our secondary, if bettered, at a longer term 2888p. Neither argument is particularly exciting, though we do anticipate some hesitation around 2888p, just because it clashes with prior highs. We’ve an assumption folk trapped at such a level since 2018 shall decide to bail, retrieving their investment rather than risking he imminent threat of taking some profit. Honestly, we cannot lecture as we’re perfectly capable of “Bailing At Break Even” (Babe) rather than risk waiting for another lifetime to pass to retrieve our holiday savings…

Overall with Shell, the share price is hovering in a zone where we must regard a long term 3751p as introducing a greater attraction than a fallen bin of receipts to a politician.  Or given recent headlines, a broken down school bus at the entrance to an impoverished politicians “house in the country”.

Should things intend go wrong for Shell (thank goodness we no longer have to type; Royal Dutch Shell…) their share price needs leak below 2400p to trigger reversals to an initial 2209p with our secondary, if broken, calculating at 2177 and a very probable bounce position.

 

But for now, we’re inclined toward optimism for this share.

 

FUTURES


FUTURES

Time Issued Market Price At Issue Short Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Long Entry Fast Exit Slow Exit Stop Prior
10:30:35PM BRENT 7991.4 7964 7850 7749 8031 8092 8120 8172 7998
10:33:41PM GOLD 2673.5
10:44:11PM FTSE 8215.2 ‘cess
10:52:40PM STOX50 4985.5 4972 4964 4952 4993 5001 5007 5012 4965
10:57:48PM GERMANY 20278 ‘cess
12:48:11AM US500 5846.6 ‘cess
12:50:34AM DOW 42558.9
12:53:26AM NASDAQ 20777.4

 

14/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 8201 points. Change of -0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,758,270,581 a change of 5.88%
13/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 8224 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,383,033,146 a change of 23.46%
10/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 8249 points. Change of -0.84%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,170,108,064 a change of -6.19%
9/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 8319 points. Change of 11.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,511,068,613 a change of -13.81%
8/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 7452 points. Change of -9.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,394,228,390 a change of 16.2%
7/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 8245 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,502,690,636 a change of 7.78%
6/01/2025 FTSE Closed at 8249 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,105,577,084 a change of 0%

SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.

Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION

Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.

UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.

We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…


Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares

Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:IDS International Distribution** **LSE:NG. National Glib** **LSE:RKH Rockhopper** **LSE:SCLP Scancell** **LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **

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Updated charts published on : Gulf Keystone, HSBC, International Distribution, National Glib, Rockhopper, Scancell, Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust, Standard Chartered,


LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone. Close Mid-Price: 163.9 Percentage Change: + 4.39% Day High: 164.2 Day Low: 158.7

Continued trades against GKP with a mid-price ABOVE 164.2 should improve ……..

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LSE:HSBA HSBC. Close Mid-Price: 799.2 Percentage Change: + 0.11% Day High: 802.5 Day Low: 794.6

Continued trades against HSBA with a mid-price ABOVE 802.5 should improve ……..

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LSE:IDS International Distribution. Close Mid-Price: 364.2 Percentage Change: + 0.05% Day High: 365 Day Low: 364

All International Distribution needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 365 to im ……..

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LSE:NG. National Glib Close Mid-Price: 910.8 Percentage Change: -0.55% Day High: 919.8 Day Low: 909.8

Target met. Weakness on National Glib below 909.8 will invariably lead to ……..

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LSE:RKH Rockhopper Close Mid-Price: 35.5 Percentage Change: -2.74% Day High: 37.4 Day Low: 35

Target met. In the event of Rockhopper enjoying further trades beyond 37. ……..

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LSE:SCLP Scancell Close Mid-Price: 9.2 Percentage Change: -4.17% Day High: 9.55 Day Low: 9.25

Continued weakness against SCLP taking the price below 9.25 calculates as ……..

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LSE:SMT Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. Close Mid-Price: 990.2 Percentage Change: + 0.36% Day High: 1005 Day Low: 986.2

Target met. All Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust needs are mid-price tr ……..

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LSE:STAN Standard Chartered. Close Mid-Price: 1022.5 Percentage Change: + 0.74% Day High: 1035.5 Day Low: 1015.5

In the event of Standard Chartered enjoying further trades beyond 1035.5, ……..

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*** End of “Updated Today” comments on shares

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