Aviva plc (LSE:AV.) The UK’s largest insurer and pension provider, Aviva, were an early adopter of the policy to suspend dividend payments in 2020. This stance has apparently increased the groups capital ratio to 182%, hopefully a sign of health for the future. However, they recently opted to cough up a 6p per share dividend at the end of September, giving us excuse to speculate on future share price movements possible before the ex-div date.
Since the Covid-19 share price drop in March, Aviva’s share price has behaved as poorly as a retail bank, failing to gain sufficient traction to clamber out of the muck. Presently trading around 286p, the share price requires above 313p before we shall dare believe it has made a triggering movement, one capable of driving recovery to an initial 348p. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at a rather more positive sounding 426p, a number which our software advises we should be confident about! Visually, there is certainly ample reason to suspect some hesitation should 426p make a guest appearance as this almost matches the price level, pre-Covid.
A family member works with an American investment bank as a programmer and, in common with most corporates, the company moved fairly seamlessly to a ‘working from home’ ethic. He’s been advised this Coronavirus free regime is planned to continue until mid-2021, so opted to ditch his rented accommodation in the city, purchasing a house in the wilds of Scotland with decent internet connectivity as a primary requirement. After making the big move 600 miles north, settling in to enjoy the rotten Scottish weather, he admits the ‘word on the street’ from corporate strongly hints the days of working from glass towers in the city are over with the bean counters realising substantial savings can be made. Aviva certainly qualify as a company with strong city presences and we wonder whether the blinds may completely come up on many of their offices again.
For it all to go wrong for Aviva, their share price needs dip below RED on the chart, presently at 214p. Such a movement will suggest coming reversal to a bottom, hopefully, of 128p. We cannot calculate below such a price level.
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 10:10:28PM | BRENT | 45.52 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:12:57PM | GOLD | 1929.29 | 1923 | 1914.5 | 1899 | 1938 | 1952 | 1963.25 | 1969 | 1932 | |
| 10:15:53PM | FTSE | 6106.9 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:23:49PM | FRANCE | 5007 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:26:04PM | GERMANY | 13072 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:28:24PM | US500 | 3429.92 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:30:41PM | DOW | 28294 | Success | ||||||||
| 10:32:54PM | NASDAQ | 11639 | 11583 | 11534.5 | 11470 | 11640 | 11726 | 11740.5 | 11811 | 11601 | Success |
| 10:35:03PM | JAPAN | 23130 | Success |
