#FTSE #GOLD The market continues to behave as if Covid-19 was all a bad dream and can be forgotten. This weeks ‘result’ of the UK achieving a higher death toll than the rest of the EU combined certainly gave pause for reflection. The FTSE appears to have embraced the delusion, still looking to have some fairly strong potentials in the next few weeks.
Of course, as is our inclination, we’ve spotted a little problem in the future. At present, the Big Picture claims the market intends to continue powerful recovery, hinting we should hope for 6732 to make an appearance. By any standards, this will prove a strong bounce from the lows of 4,890 but the “nerd element” in house point at a pretty major issue.
Firstly, achieving 6732 is a major target level, one at which we would normally anticipate some turbulence.
Secondly, it almost exactly matches the point of “trend break”, when the uptrend from March 2009 was broken in March 2020.
From a movement perspective, this fairly major issue risks raining on the FTSE parade. On March 6th 2020, when the critical uptrend broke, the market broke the Red line at roughly 6753 points. At present, we’re projecting a movement potential which fails the better the point of trend break and this is liable to be troubling, the FTSE failing to achieve a safe Higher High and finding itself in a position where any negative news shall prove capable of forcing some pretty vile weakness. Despite there only being a few points difference between our recovery ambition and the point of trend break, this sort of nonsense tends cause trouble more often than we’d like to admit.
Essentially, once a price recovers above the point of such an important trend break, it meets the first criteria for Higher Highs and gives considerable hope for the future. It’s difficult not to wonder, with politicians again gathering at the trough, schools returning, and lockdown easing, whether we face a resumption of hostilities again in a few weeks with virus numbers again increasing. This risks a Perfect Storm, if it coincides with the FTSE approaching the 6732 level.
Nearer term, the FTSE is looking quite hopeful for Friday. Apparently moves next above 6403 points should harbour thoughts of an attempt at 6444 points. If bettered, secondary calculates at 6482 points. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 6314 points, painfully wide. To make things more palatable, even above 6388 points now looks capable of triggering the upward movement.
As always, there’s a reverse side of the coin for the near term. Below 6314 looks capable of triggering reversal to 6289 points. If broken, secondary works out down at a surprising looking 6230 points.
Finally, have a good weekend and cherish it, ‘cos we’re not due any more market holidays until the end of August, a place which sounds very far away at present!
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 9:37:46PM | BRENT | 40.07 | 38.81 | 38.39 | 39.77 | 40.16 | 40.835 | 39.25 | |||
| 9:39:39PM | GOLD | 1714.48 | 1697 | 1689 | 1712 | 1722 | 1728 | 1711 | ‘cess | ||
| 9:43:30PM | FTSE | 6351.44 | 6324 | 6304.5 | 6349 | 6411 | 6457.25 | 6308 | |||
| 9:45:00PM | FRANCE | 4996.7 | 4960 | 4937 | 5014 | 5052 | 5080 | 4978 | |||
| 9:47:07PM | GERMANY | 12440 | 12321 | 12254.5 | 12432 | 12566 | 12671.5 | 12453 | |||
| 10:00:08PM | US500 | 3117.02 | 3089 | 3080 | 3115 | 3119 | 3129.5 | 3098 | |||
| 10:02:03PM | DOW | 26310 | 26070 | 26022.5 | 26270 | 26388 | 26418 | 26220 | |||
| 10:03:50PM | NASDAQ | 9649 | 9574 | 9514 | 9650 | 9683 | 9722.5 | 9624 | ‘cess | ||
| 10:06:30PM | JAPAN | 22734 | 22490 | 22371 | 22702 | 22855 | 22961.5 | 22685 |
