The Oil Sector for 17/10/2019

#US500 #DOW Triggers are always interesting. Currently, Twitter has a constant battle about something called Transgender with the word “him” becoming a ‘trigger’ point for what is often quite nasty (aka entertaining) debate. Sensing a trough, politicians are even involved. Sooner or later, some innocent pastor is going to open the gates of hell on a Sunday, when asking his audience to rise for a singalong. Someone will complain; “It’s not a ‘HIM’, it’s a Psalm which now self identifies as Samantha…”

We had our own little “trigger” incident today with the UK Oil & Gas Sector, the NMX0530!

Last time we covered it in August (link), we’d warned the dangers if 8214 points broke. In the couple of months since, the index has assiduously avoided the trigger level, almost teasing us with the care taken to ensure 8214 points didn’t actually break. To us, it tends confirm we’ve been working against the correct trend and calculating properly. Unfortunately, for the index, it tends mean if we were correct about 8214, we’ll invariably be correct about the reversal potentials.

The reason for our concern about this sector is fairly obvious. Oil & Gas shares are fairly major drivers for the main index and also, through the AIM, attractive to many private investors. As a result, we’d suggest keeping a weather eye on the NMX0530 before decided any oil share is actually cheap. The immediate situation is straightforward as weakness now below 8195 looks like entering a cycle down to 7998 points next. Visually, there is ample reason to expect some sort of rebound at such a level but if it breaks on the initial surge downhill, our secondary calculates at 7746 points.

From a really big picture perspective, if our secondary fails to promote a reasonable rebound, the index risks losing a further 1500 points as it could trend down to a bottom (hopefully) at 6230 points.

To escape this potential Black Hole, the index requires above 8570 points as this calculates with the potential of recovery to 8854 points. This “risks” being game changing, thanks to our secondary above 8854 coming in at 9403 points and safety (apparently) for the future.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:52:26PM

BRENT

59.01

               

‘cess

9:54:44PM

GOLD

1489.86

               

‘cess

10:03:48PM

FTSE

7167.95

               

‘cess

10:05:26PM

FRANCE

5691.2

               

10:07:45PM

GERMANY

12676

               

10:10:37PM

US500

2992.72

2980

2972

2964

2997

3004

3013

3039

2984

10:13:51PM

DOW

26974

               

10:38:29PM

NASDAQ

7942.62

7896

7877

7849

7931

7942

7965

7988

7904

10:40:33PM

JAPAN

22519

               

 

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

15/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7211 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,505,649,682 a change of 32.93%

14/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,646,210,010 a change of -31.78%

11/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7247 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,276,859,342 a change of 51.67%

10/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7186 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,457,100,667 a change of 4.75%

9/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7166 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,209,605,060 a change of -0.79%

8/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7143 points. Change of -0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,250,871,756 a change of -5.63%

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