#US500 #DOW Triggers are always interesting. Currently, Twitter has a constant battle about something called Transgender with the word “him” becoming a ‘trigger’ point for what is often quite nasty (aka entertaining) debate. Sensing a trough, politicians are even involved. Sooner or later, some innocent pastor is going to open the gates of hell on a Sunday, when asking his audience to rise for a singalong. Someone will complain; “It’s not a ‘HIM’, it’s a Psalm which now self identifies as Samantha…”
We had our own little “trigger” incident today with the UK Oil & Gas Sector, the NMX0530!
Last time we covered it in August (link), we’d warned the dangers if 8214 points broke. In the couple of months since, the index has assiduously avoided the trigger level, almost teasing us with the care taken to ensure 8214 points didn’t actually break. To us, it tends confirm we’ve been working against the correct trend and calculating properly. Unfortunately, for the index, it tends mean if we were correct about 8214, we’ll invariably be correct about the reversal potentials.
The reason for our concern about this sector is fairly obvious. Oil & Gas shares are fairly major drivers for the main index and also, through the AIM, attractive to many private investors. As a result, we’d suggest keeping a weather eye on the NMX0530 before decided any oil share is actually cheap. The immediate situation is straightforward as weakness now below 8195 looks like entering a cycle down to 7998 points next. Visually, there is ample reason to expect some sort of rebound at such a level but if it breaks on the initial surge downhill, our secondary calculates at 7746 points.
From a really big picture perspective, if our secondary fails to promote a reasonable rebound, the index risks losing a further 1500 points as it could trend down to a bottom (hopefully) at 6230 points.
To escape this potential Black Hole, the index requires above 8570 points as this calculates with the potential of recovery to 8854 points. This “risks” being game changing, thanks to our secondary above 8854 coming in at 9403 points and safety (apparently) for the future.
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
9:52:26PM |
BRENT |
59.01 |
‘cess | ||||||||
9:54:44PM |
GOLD |
1489.86 |
‘cess | ||||||||
10:03:48PM |
FTSE |
7167.95 |
‘cess | ||||||||
10:05:26PM |
FRANCE |
5691.2 | |||||||||
10:07:45PM |
GERMANY |
12676 | |||||||||
10:10:37PM |
US500 |
2992.72 |
2980 |
2972 |
2964 |
2997 |
3004 |
3013 |
3039 |
2984 | |
10:13:51PM |
DOW |
26974 | |||||||||
10:38:29PM |
NASDAQ |
7942.62 |
7896 |
7877 |
7849 |
7931 |
7942 |
7965 |
7988 |
7904 | |
10:40:33PM |
JAPAN |
22519 |