Trends and Targets for 6/11/2018

SHELL #GOLD #NASDAQ It can be truly unusual to discover a share we’ve never publicly commented against but Royal Dutch #Shell appears to fit the category. Despite a grotty prognosis for Big Oil by a studio hysteric on the Jeremy Vine BBC Radio 2 show, we’d guess ‘something’ is happening which has provoked a few emails.

Our first item of consideration is the RED line on the chart. At time of writing, the share price requires close above 2436p to regain this trend. On the chart below, we’ve shown an inset which illustrates the dance being played out against this trend line. It appears clear the market is indeed experiencing some collywobbles with recent price movements now suggesting weakness below 2338p should provoke travel to a fairly tame sounding 2279p.

Only if 2279 is broken do we start to think seriously above further reductions in the pipeline toward 2097p next. And just to emphasise how nervous this would make us, because price movements would describe a “lower low”, we’d be forced to mention the potential of an (hopefully) ultimate bottom at 1580p.

However, just because we’ve started this analysis by looking at the miserable side of life, Shell does have ‘form’ with some historical misbehaviour. Circled at the bottom left of the chart is a class ‘GaGa’ where a GapDown/GapUp was used to kickstart the current upward cycle. This being the case, it still appears possible for movements above 2535 to provide a challenge to the immediate downtrend with an initial target of 2662p. Closure above will indicate a future 2984 awaiting a visit!

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