GOLD for 19/11/2019

#Nasdaq Our last glance at #GOLD in June (link) proved a stonking success as we mapped a movement from 1357 up to 1537, weird with the numbers just changing order! Importantly, our initial target was bettered for a session or two, resulting a situation where future optimism is possible and almost assured.

Unsurprisingly, despite the metal bettering our 1537 ambition, it was a pretty major target level, one at which we’d expected some hesitation and the market is currently obliging. The immediate situation is fairly straightforward with Gold prices seen as suffering, due to the strength of index’. We’ve a suspicion this shall prove a load of tosh at some point soon, once the price of Gold exhausts reversal pressures. Apparently, if Gold now trades below 1454 dollars, it should experience reversal to an initial 1429 with secondary, if broken, calculating at a bottom of 1376.

We hope for a serious bounce, if 1376 makes an appearance. Ideally, in fact, any bounce should occur somewhere around the 1400 dollar mark, “proving” strength in the price and once again entering a cycle which should again challenge the 1537 level.

If 1537 is bettered, despite hesitation appearing visually probable at the 1550 level, it should enter a growth cycle to 1603 initially with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 1674 dollars. Due to the 1674 once again being a major ambition, some hesitation appears very probable around such a level.

To summarise, we suspect the current reversal cycle on Gold should bottom around the 1400 dollar mark. If opening a “blind long” at such a level, stop needs be just below 1376 dollars. For our future thoughts to prove correct, any bounce from 1400 exceeding 1537 is liable to prove quite profitable, until 1674 makes an appearance.

The reason we’re being a little hysterical about the 1376 level is simple. Below such a point introduces the potential of 1208 making itself known as “bottom”.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:52:12PM

BRENT

61.71

               

9:56:38PM

GOLD

1471

1456

1429

1399

1475

1474

1475.5

1482

1462

‘cess

9:58:28PM

FTSE

7312.41

               

10:00:46PM

FRANCE

5930.5

               

‘cess

10:03:28PM

GERMANY

13211

               

‘cess

10:05:29PM

US500

3122.62

               

Shambles

10:07:35PM

DOW

28047

               

10:09:13PM

NASDAQ

8330.87

8272

8243

8205

8341

8357

8376

8411

8278

Success

10:11:13PM

JAPAN

23397

               

 

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

GBPUSD for 18/11/2019

#Brent #DAX The saga of Sterling against the Dollar #GBPUSD must surely deserve a country music song. Or perhaps some Blues music. The pairing had reached the point where reversal to parity appeared destined, a mood which lasted an entire session at the start of September. Then it changed direction faster than UK political policies when viewed against opinion polls.

Before embracing optimism for the future, it looks worth pointing out the danger if this pairing wanders below Blue on the chart anytime now. Generally speaking, this will be a dreadfully dangerous signal, taking the pair back into a region where severe reversal to parity once again becomes probable, extremely probable. Blue is presently around 1.26, dipping to around 1.25 by the end of this year. When a price breaks above a down trend, then retreats again below, a loss of confidence usually occurs pretty quickly thereafter.

For now, we shall pretend faith in Sterlings potential for the future as above 1.30 should now bring recovery to an initial 1.314, sufficient profit to enjoy air conditioned luxury in Pizza Express. Above 1.31 and we’re supposed to accept the potential of ongoing longer term recovery toward 1.35 in the future, an outcome with a considerable question mark due to the ruling downtrend from 2014.

At present, the pairing needs above 1.32 to beat this downtrend and make the potential of 1.35 real. We have doubts for a multiplicity of reasons, not least being the glass ceiling at 1.335 thanks to movements since mid 2016 and The Brexit vote. Since then, the relationship appears to be pivoting above and below this horizontal trend line with more time spent below, casting considerable doubt on its future potentials.

In plain English, the pairing only deserves real optimism if above 1.335, something which currently looks unlikely.

Hey, chart goes here
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:14:53PM

BRENT

63

61.25

60.97

60.23

62.38

63.19

63.875

64.75

61.69

Shambles

10:17:02PM

GOLD

1468.6

               

10:19:05PM

FTSE

7314.61

               

Success

10:24:28PM

FRANCE

5937.2

               

Success

10:26:31PM

GERMANY

13241

13170

13145.5

13100

13246

13266

13294

13340

13171

10:28:54PM

US500

3119.67

               

Success

10:33:27PM

DOW

27998.8

               

Success

10:35:20PM

NASDAQ

8315.74

               

Success

10:38:22PM

JAPAN

23360

               

Success

 

 

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

FTSE for FRIDAY 15/11/2019

#DOW #DAX While used to diverse visitors worldwide to our #FTSE Friday missive, last week saw a strange surge of visitors from Argentina, sufficient to nudge Reunion Island to the bottom of the international Top 20 sources. The surprise; Argentina has never featured previously but suddenly we’d 15 unique readers in Buenos Aires. Suspect we’d featured in a chatroom!

Optimism for the future of the FTSE is gradually subsiding as the market threatens a dodgy moment, one which gives us an excuse to explain some basic rules we apply to price movements. The chart below is used to highlight something we attach importance to, what happens when a downtrend is exceeded?

Hey, chart goes here

Against this particular share, the price bettered 57.34 and immediately surged upward. We’ve circled the movement, one which even shows a little jiggle at the point of trend break, showing the market appeared attach some importance to it. This sort of thing is generally a “safe” signal something useful is about to happen. In this particular instance, it had an initial target of 59.5p, achieved and slightly bettered.

In theory, this gives hope for the future but we’ve circled the trend break of 57.34 to highlight something else. If a share (or index) manages below the point of trend break, following an initial surge, the implication for any immediate growth is really not great. Instead, there’s a strong probability a price is about to mess around, usually between the high achieved following the trend break and the low achieved before the trend break. We’ve absolutely no idea why this should happen but in the case of this particular share, it suggests anything now below 57.34 will doubtless witness the share price oscillate between 55.5 and 59.5 for a while. Obviously, a useful trading range and only when this range is either exceeded or broken dare we believe a new trend is forming.

With the looming general election, we suspect quite a few shares shall be placed in a parking zone until it becomes clear the UK knows what isn’t going to happen next…

The reason we explained the foregoing is twofold. Firstly, ‘cos we’ve nothing interesting to write about the FTSE and secondly, ‘cos the FTSE is in danger of doing exactly the thing we’re warning about. If the market closes below 7280 points, it shall exhibit a very real risk of becoming rangebound for a while until the UK political shambles is resolved. This will mean the market being trapped in the 7140 to 7400 zone for a while.

Near term, the suggestion is of weakness now below 7288 bringing reversal down to an initial 7266 points. If broken, our secondary calculation comes in at a less likely (near term) 7216 points.

There is a surprising, alternate potential for Friday. In the event the index makes it above 7331 points, some recovery to an initial 7359 is possible. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7383 points.

We suspect reversal but on the bright side, despite Brazil not appearing on our list of countries visiting our website, Sao Paulo hosts this weekends Formula 1 race.

Hey, chart goes here

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:47:04PM

BRENT

61.95

61.71

61.46

   

62.78

63.32

   

‘cess

9:48:41PM

GOLD

1471.37

1463

1458.5

   

1475

1477

   

‘cess

9:51:23PM

FTSE

7312.39

7282

7255

   

7343

7354

   

9:53:57PM

FRANCE

5910.7

5889

5882

   

5917

5925

   

Shambles

9:57:04PM

GERMANY

13211.07

13157

13109

   

13273

13292

   

10:13:57PM

US500

3098.52

3082

3076

   

3099

3103

   

10:29:04PM

DOW

27788

27669

27625.5

   

27840

27874

   

10:31:00PM

NASDAQ

8263.5

8226

8206

   

8266

8279.5

   

Shambles

10:32:45PM

JAPAN

23152

23004

22940

   

23199

23248.5

   

‘cess

 

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

 

Tesco for 14/11/2019

#brent #Nasdaq When we last covered #Tesco, we’d a requirement the share price actually close above 244p to fulfill the first criteria for upward fireworks. In an almost spiteful movement, the price closed at 245 in October and since then, nothing but pain in the bread aisle…

Presently trading around the 232p mark, Tesco’ share price looks set on reversal to an initial 223p. In itself, not a particularly threatening concept but if broken, secondary calculates at 207p and should be capable of bonking against the uptrend since 2016. Ideally, this should provoke some sort of rebound. However, it’s worth looking hard at the chart as there are significant dangers should the 207p level break.

Obviously, it breaks a major uptrend but worse, the price achieves a “lower low”, propelling itself into a region where continued reversal to 193 looks very possible. At such a level, we’d need revisit the numbers, thanks to the Big Picture painting some truly dramatic reversal potentials.

Allegedly, the price NOW need only close above 243p to better the immediate downtrend but thanks to moves in October, we’re inclined to widen our parameters, suggesting only above 248p should now make growth to an initial 257 make sense. If exceeded, secondary is a promising (for the long term) 273p.

For now, we suggest it worth keeping an eye on if 207p makes an appearance. At such a level, we’d suspect it shall not prove a turkey!

Other snowmen are available.
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

10:00:35PM

BRENT

62.2

61

60.585

59.95

62.09

62.32

62.705

63.32

61.23

Success

10:03:31PM

GOLD

1464.14

               

‘cess

10:06:27PM

FTSE

7347.08

               

‘cess

10:08:37PM

FRANCE

5909.7

               

Success

10:11:20PM

GERMANY

13260.82

               

‘cess

10:19:03PM

US500

3096.97

               

‘cess

10:26:17PM

DOW

27808.3

               

‘cess

10:37:03PM

NASDAQ

8262.97

8215

8182.5

8145

8269

8275

8296

8324

8215

Shambles

10:40:10PM

JAPAN

23320

               

‘cess

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

Taylor Wimpey, 13/11/2019

#DAX #CAC40 As we ‘enjoy’ the first snows of winter here in Argyll, thoughts turn to the building industry and a share which is supposed to be going up. Since 2015, Taylor Wimpey has stagnated, albeit sometimes with a useful trading range. Unlike my wifes conversation last night, price moves are about as interesting as a discussion about roof trusses.

Like most couples who’ve been married too long, we’ve absurd games to irritate the other. One is ‘The Word’, when hearing a word not commonly used and spending the rest of the day taking turns to fit it into conversation, regardless how mangled the original word gets. (Hey, we follow share prices, did you think we’ve an interesting life?)

Yesterdays unexpected word was ‘Karma’, prompting conversations about Chicken Karma, VW KarmaGhia, that Boy George song about a lizard, etc. Finally, a new low was achieved with mention of Frances spectacular La Camargue, neatly mispronounced as The Karmargue.

Once Asian markets had opened, it was bedtime. A sleepy voice said “Karma Sutra, I win.”

It’s worth taking a step back to visually ascertain “the problem” and in the case of Taylor Wimpey, there’s clearly an issue around the 2 quid level, 212p to be precise. Whether we call it a Glass Ceiling or a Horizontal Trend, the market appears to find something really offensive about the 212p level. Bizarrely, this chain of events started in December 2007 and creates a situation where “the Big Picture” suggests closure above 212p should trigger a longer term cycle which leads to an initial 308p. If bettered, our secondary calculation is at 410p.

Perhaps the strength of this potential is also why the market is refusing to let the share close in “safe” territory!

Near term, we shall be interested if TW manages above 178p as growth to an initial 188p looks possible. If bettered, secondary is at 198p. Importantly, above 198p will tend suggest another stab at the Glass Ceiling of 212p.

Unfortunately, that’s the end of the good news. More likely, we should fear weakness below 143p as this is liable to trigger reversal to an initial 134p. This, unfortunately, breaks the uptrend since 2011 and as a result, if 134p breaks, “bottom” is liable to make itself known by 93p hopefully.

We also need to mention 18p as “ultimate bottom” if politicians get their way and trash the countries economy.

Taylor Wimpey share price movements.
The Snowman Returns.
FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:50:27PM

BRENT

61.72

               

9:51:42PM

GOLD

1457.04

               

9:53:48PM

FTSE

7357.56

               

‘cess

10:15:40PM

FRANCE

5915.5

5897

5888.5

5874

5924

5933

5942

5969

5905

Success

10:18:34PM

GERMANY

13272

13185

13163

13115

13254

13288

13316

13384

13211

Success

10:20:39PM

US500

3091.57

               

Success

10:22:29PM

DOW

27694

               

‘cess

10:24:29PM

NASDAQ

8265.27

               

Success

10:27:06PM

JAPAN

23478

               

Success

 

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

 

Wetherspoon for 12/11/2019

#Gold #DOW Sometimes, we feel guilty moaning about Politics & Brexit when supposed to be writing about shares. But Wetherspoon managed to take things to a new level, the company warned by shareholders to stop talking about Brexit. Our colours are firmly nailed to the mast, due to three characters from Wizard of Oz apparently competing for our votes.

Presently trading around the 15 quid mark, Wetherspoon share price need only close a session above 1615p and we suspect it shall enter a brave new world with interesting potentials. We can calculate a path commencing to 1804p but, to be completely fair, the share price shall find itself in a region where “top” cannot be calculated. As it’s one of the few organisations thriving, going against the trend in a market sector which is pretty foul presently, price movements will be fascinating to watch IF the trigger criteria is achieved.

For now, we’re not terribly confident as the share has broken through this years uptrend. Despite recent gains, we’d be worried should it break below 1445p as reversal down to an initial 1293p makes sense. If broken, secondary calculates at 1178p, essentially meeting the uptrend since 2016 and the Brexit vote. Rather fitting, given JDW’s Beermats & Brexit drama.

There’s a fairly serious issue, should 1178p break as “bottom” becomes 935p!

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

9:51:21PM

BRENT

61.93

               

Shambles

9:53:30PM

GOLD

1456

1447

1442

1428

1468

1468

1475.5

1485

1448

‘cess

9:58:02PM

FTSE

7345

               

Success

9:59:40PM

FRANCE

5901.9

               

10:01:46PM

GERMANY

13230.59

               

‘cess

10:03:17PM

US500

3089.52

               

10:06:47PM

DOW

27705

27504

27450.5

27363

27610

27713

27773.5

27838

27570

‘cess

10:12:30PM

NASDAQ

8248.12

               

10:14:06PM

JAPAN

23362

               

 

 

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%

5/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7388 points. Change of 0.26%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,164,114,046 a change of 25.79%

4/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7369 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,900,286,853 a change of -8.27%

1/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,127,869 a change of -12.99%