Trends And Targets

#Gold #SP500 We’re always quick to ridicule retail banks but PayPal are in a league of their own. Once regarded as “just” the online portal for eBay, now they issue cards, payment terminals, and apparently offer business finance. It’d be true to say we’ve always found them helpful to deal with, a voice at the end of a phone willing to exercise common sense when an issue with a transaction occurs.

Their share price has accelerated upward fairly remorselessly over the years, the value quickly exceeding the level before the Covid-19 dip and now looks poised to boldly go higher again.

 

We’ve a little problem worth mentioning, one which may prove important due to their earnings report being announced after the close on the 29th July. The immediate situation suggests movement continuing above 186 should hopefully attempt an initial 193 with secondary, if exceeded, a marginally more interesting 197 dollars. The proximity of both targets worries us a little as this sort of calculation will often point to the presence of a Glass Ceiling for movements, suggesting some hesitation is imminent.

Crucially, should PayPal manage to exceed 197 dollars in the days ahead, it enters uncharted territory as we simply cannot calculate any higher.

 

Should trouble make itself known, the share price needs weaken below 164 dollars as this threatens reversal to an initial 152, hopefully producing a level at which the price bounces. In the event any weakness makes its way below 152 dollars, the price could easily continue reversal toward 121 dollars and hopefully a price level regarded as “bottom”.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:32:38PM	BRENT	44.17
9:36:13PM	GOLD	1969.17	1941	1928.5	1911	1961	1973	1986.5	1998	1950	‘cess
9:45:40PM	FTSE	6152.82									Shambles
9:52:11PM	FRANCE	4977									‘cess
10:04:53PM	GERMANY	12894
10:12:18PM	US500	3262	3211	3198.5	3176	3233	3266	3274	3295	3221
10:15:33PM	DOW	26573									‘cess
10:19:18PM	NASDAQ	10708
10:21:15PM	JAPAN	22530									‘cess

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

#FTSE #Japan Before producing a report, we generally glance at a companies website for a brief update on their basics. Standard Life Aberdeen prove quite challenging, thanks to the corporate website failing to provide clarity or examples on what they actually do to make money. It took a Google search for some clarity, revealing they’re a UK based g lobal investment company headquartered in Edinburgh, Scotland. It is the largest active asset manager in the UK, with investments in equities, multi-asset, fixed income, real estate and private markets.

Standard Life featured in a brief FT article, where politicians were bemoaning office workers opting to remain working from home, leaving city centres bereft of their usual daytime footfall. The usual sandwich and coffee chains complain, despite lockdown easing, their “take” is down by as much as 85%. As we’ve mentioned previously, the new culture of homeworking is liable to give a long term headache for landlords renting office space, especially when corporate entities such as SLA appreciate substantial savings can be made by reducing the size of their office footprint.

 

As for Standard Life share price, it has not yet recovered above the Covid-19 drop level. Thankfully there are early signs giving some slight hope, the value needing exceed 279p to (hopefully) trigger a recovery cycle to an initial 301p. If bettered, our secondary calculates at 345p and an almost certain glass ceiling thanks to the history of prior highs.

If trouble is to be courted, the share needs slither below 234p to justify a raised eyebrow as this risks provoking a reversal path to an initial 158p with secondary, if broken, at 132p. We cannot calculate below 132p at present, so regard this unlikely drop potential as an “ultimate bottom”.

 

For now, the visuals suggest the company shall be worth keeping an eye on as a jump to 301p makes a lot of sense.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:42:01PM	BRENT	43.62
10:02:06PM	GOLD	1959.68									Success
10:04:08PM	FTSE	6114.26	6083	6060	6026	6121	6152	6163.5	6191	6111
10:07:58PM	FRANCE	4917
10:10:25PM	GERMANY	12794.36									‘cess
10:23:24PM	US500	3221.92
10:25:20PM	DOW	26392									Shambles
10:27:23PM	NASDAQ	10566
10:32:27PM	JAPAN	22547	22490	22386	22274	22590	22665	22714.5	22789	22552	Success

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%

#Gold #Nasdaq We’ve had a soft spot for Anglo Asian since 2010. The Gold, Copper & Silver producer, based in Azerbaijan, was one of our original software subjects when we developed our method for mapping the future. Even when we last glanced at it in 2018, our magic was still available as the scenario mapped a rise from 42 to 99 successfully. It’s time for an update, thanks to the share presently trading around 155p. Hopefully we remain as competent as previously!

 

At present trading around 155p, Anglo Asian (AAZ to its friends) only needs exceed 159p to confirm a new path toward an initial 183p. If exceeded, our secondary ambition calculates at 194p. The big surprise comes should the share attain the 183p level as it’s exploring yet another all time high, residing in territory with the potential of 241p in the distant future. Thankfully there’s nothing important going on in the world which makes the prospect of a long term hold dangerous. But then again, AAZ are a company which pays regular dividends.

If we choose to rely on closing prices, at 155p AAZ closed the 27th July, matching  the price at which the share started this terrible year. But already, the share has exceeded its pre-Covid19 level, so some early signs of optimism are present.

 

Obviously, we’d be stupid if we avoided searching for early signs of trouble. At present, AAZ needs slip below 137p to provoke concern as this allows for reversal to an initial 127p with secondary, if broken, at a slightly frightening 102p. Hopefully a share we think of as an old friend, hasn’t developed sharks teeth in the last 10 years.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:22PM	BRENT	44.01									‘cess
10:02:24PM	GOLD	1942.45	1927	1923.5	1916	1939	1946	1951	1957	1932	Success
10:05:29PM	FTSE	6136.15
10:08:37PM	FRANCE	4940.7
10:27:14PM	GERMANY	12902
10:30:25PM	US500	3243
10:32:20PM	DOW	26625
10:34:23PM	NASDAQ	10693	10482	10417.5	10325	10569	10695	10763	10911	10523
10:36:28PM	JAPAN	22665

 

 

27/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of -0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,805,133 a change of 6.51%

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%

17/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6290 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,456,693,938 a change of 6.54%

#Brent #DAX When we commented on the pending name change back in February (link), RBS were trading at 206 and we speculated on a bottom potential at 114p. At the time, we couldn’t calculate below such a foul level but with a new name comes new potentials.

Unfortunately, these potentials stink!

Natwest share price presently needs exceed 135.698p or so to better the immediate Blue downtrend shown on the chart. Apparently such a miracle should provide early warning of price recovery toward an initial 168p with secondary, if exceeded, a more encouraging sounding 180p. We’re less than convinced about its prospects, thanks to the Big Picture against RBS pointing at a “maximum bottom” of 114p.

The implication with the share price spending so much time below 114p since March is obviously one of concern.

 

In the week since the official name change, Natwest shares have now described ‘lower lows’ and it’s creating the situation where weakness below 105p risks reversal to an initial 94p, matching the banking crash low of 2009 (okay, it was 9.8p but the 10x consolidation hides this fact). Below 94p now gets seriously frightening as our secondary works out at an ultimate bottom of 50p. We can no longer calculate anything below such a level.

The truly frightening aspect to this scenario is it’s not restricted to Natwest. A glance at the banking sector index, the famous NMX8350, also suggests some further trauma is in store for the UK retail banks. Presently, the sector index is at 2,207 points and we’d previously calculated 2,460 points as the ideal bounce level. Obviously, it hasn’t bounced and is spending its time below “bottom”.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:36:38PM	BRENT	43.7	43.3	42.945	42.25	43.9	44.99	45.695	47.69	43.8	‘cess
5:39:07PM	GOLD	1902.06
5:42:27PM	FTSE	6109.36									‘cess
5:45:02PM	FRANCE	4950.5									Success
5:48:07PM	GERMANY	12816	12795	12748	12558	12888	12972	13020	13103	12827	Success
5:50:38PM	US500	3211.9									‘cess
5:56:21PM	DOW	26440									‘cess
5:58:25PM	NASDAQ	10478									‘cess
6:00:19PM	JAPAN	22332									Success

24/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6123 points. Change of -1.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,011,520,814 a change of -5.85%

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%

17/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6290 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,456,693,938 a change of 6.54%

16/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6250 points. Change of -0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,183,257,766 a change of -22.26%

#FTSE #GOLD We last reviewed #Gold on 22nd April (link) at 1702 dollars, casually mentioning 1909 dollars as a potential “top”. At time of writing, Gold futures achieved 1900 dollars and we’re starting to wonder if the metal shall melt or go higher? We’ve some pretty firm reasons to expect hesitation around the 1900 dollar level but, hopefully sensibly, decided to try a “what if” scenario should 1909 dollars be exceeded.

In the event of 1909 being left in the dust, further movement to an initial 1923 dollars is now expected with secondary, if bettered, calculating at a new top of 2055 dollars. To be blunt, should such a level appear, the market almost must experience some reversals, if only to gather sufficient oomph for further climbs in the future.

 

However, the visuals give ample reason to anticipate some reversals anytime now. Many folk trading Gold will notice the prior All Time High back in September 2011 when the price achieved 1919 dollars. This alone will introduce selling pressure as most chart packages will easily produce a 10 year picture, warning a prior high is doubtless making its presence felt.

In addition, there’s the Bloomberg Pundit effect where a bunch of market analysts are queuing up to predict the US markets are about to drop and thus, the only safe thing to do is buy Gold. Over the years, we’ve learned to distrust these folks opinions, usually expecting the exact opposite of what someone is being paid to say. Perhaps this has been the reason for the immediate surge in Gold prices but visually, there’s ample reason to expect some Gold volatility around the 1900 dollar level. The perceived “connect” between Gold prices and stock market index movements has long been the source of losses for traders.

Reversals in Gold now below 1862 should produce some early warning for trouble, allowing reversals to an initial 1843 with secondary, if broken, at a surprising 1797 dollars. Should 1797 make an appearance, we’d hope for a proper rebound as the implications below are unpleasant at around 1700 dollars.

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) As Boris Johnston undertook what some in the media were calling his “Farewell Tour of Scotland” with photo and media opportunities on one of the least populated areas (Orkney), it seemed only fitting for the FTSE to experience slight hysterics. To be fair, the reversals seemed pretty under control and it looks like the index itself needs break below 6,200 to become a little bit troublesome. Such an event risks triggering reversal to an unimpressive 6,169 points with secondary, if broken, calculating down at 6,130 points. The market closed Thursday at 6,211 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop appears to be 6,250 points but we suspect, if the movement triggers, falls are liable to be fairly sharp. As the Red line suggests, some sort of rebound should be expected if 6,130 makes an appearance.

 

What happens if the FTSE makes it above 6,250 and the immediate Blue downtrend?

Above 6,250 should prove capable of some recovery to an initial 6,288 points with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a more impressive and confident 6,298 points.

As always, please remember we are discussing the FTSE and NOT after hours futures.

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:16:17PM	BRENT	43.64	43.4	43.245		44.05	44.65	45.125		43.85	‘cess
10:18:19PM	GOLD	1888	1870	1866		1890	1899	1909		1888	‘cess
10:22:35PM	FTSE	6173.56	6161	6133.5		6195	6179	6237		6150	‘cess
10:32:16PM	FRANCE	4991.2	4976	4959		5038	5047	5069		5015	‘cess
10:39:43PM	GERMANY	13006.54	12950	12905		13008	13044	13080.5		12968	Shambles
10:42:22PM	US500	3238	3222	3204.5		3242	3268	3276		3252	‘cess
10:49:53PM	DOW	26641	26545	26483		26655	26700	26766.5		26590	Success
10:52:52PM	NASDAQ	10581	10530	10451		10624	10655	10711.5		10584	Success
10:55:28PM	JAPAN	22549	22474	22438		22572	22620	22657.5		22505	Success

23/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6211 points. Change of 0.06%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,260,959,883 a change of -10.5%

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%

17/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6290 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,456,693,938 a change of 6.54%

16/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6250 points. Change of -0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,183,257,766 a change of -22.26%

15/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6292 points. Change of 1.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,380,801,480 a change of 18.89%

#Gold #Nasdaq A share which, at one point, achieved a 1,200%+ rise in a single day deserves mention. MobilityOne, declining from its high of 57p managed to close the session at 15.5p, up a magnificent 244% from its opening price of 4.5p. This AIM share looks painfully capable of describing “Pump & Dump” characteristics and we’d guess it was perhaps hyped in an internet chatroom.

From looking at the price movement trajectory from noon when it all kicked off, we’d now be alarmed should the price wither below 10p as reversal to 2.8p looks possible. We cannot calculate below such a point. About the only saving grace, if this is indeed the victim of “enthusiastic conversations”, usually a price will once again surge upward while a number of true believers again get excited. The price needs above 23.7 to perhaps justify 33p, then we’d suspect relaxation again. The share now needs trade above 57p to give any sort of hope the movement was based on anything factual.

In this instance, we’re not bothering with a chart. The single day price movement looks as interesting as a long dead tree, alone in a desert of sand.

 

Frasers Group Mr Ashley’s plans to use Frasers to create a “Harrods of the High St” must have taken a fairly solid hit, thanks to Covid-19. The UK government, ignoring his request for alleviation of business rates, certainly isn’t helping any idea of a return to normality with the end of lockdown. The Frasers Group announcement that they shall not be making any rental payments in respect of occupied property until the level of trade reaches the point at which the parties envisaged, when they drew up the lease, also makes quite a lot of sense. All things considered, it’s doubtless not been a fun year for many landlords with retail properties.

Presently trading around 282p, the share needs exceed 290 to give some hope for recovery, allowing an initial 302p with secondary, if exceeded, a trend testing 323p. Visually, achieving the 323p level also comes with a promise of hesitation, due to prior highs.

The share price needs sell itself below 275 to cause alarm as this calculates with a reversal potential at 247p initially with secondary, if broken, down at a bottom (hopefully) of 221p. We suspect it intends 221p before things get better.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:42PM	BRENT	44.53
10:08:17PM	GOLD	1872.15	1846	1841.5	1831	1859	1873	1892	1933	1852	Success
10:10:59PM	FTSE	6210.87									Success
10:13:26PM	FRANCE	5051.2									‘cess
10:16:39PM	GERMANY	13144									Shambles
10:18:43PM	US500	3275.82									‘cess
10:22:34PM	DOW	26995									Success
10:24:16PM	NASDAQ	10856	10777	10746.5	10637	10900	10935	10961.5	11023	10800	Shambles
10:26:34PM	JAPAN	22772

22/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6207 points. Change of -0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,760,873,416 a change of -15.1%

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%

17/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6290 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,456,693,938 a change of 6.54%

16/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6250 points. Change of -0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,183,257,766 a change of -22.26%

15/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6292 points. Change of 1.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,380,801,480 a change of 18.89%

14/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6179 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,525,816,471 a change of 16.23%

#FTSE #DOW It’s not difficult to imagine security company #G4S salivating about potential opportunities, once full border controls are required following Brexit. Perhaps they shall be contracted to man a liquid border down the middle of the Irish Sea, once Northern Ireland finds itself effectively tossed out of the UK. There was something occurred due to the Covid-19 drop in March which perhaps suggests potentials for the future.

All our conventional calculations provided a drop target of 43p against this share but the lowest achieved turned out to be 69p and it has certainly rebounded in the intervening period. We wonder if the market suspects an inherent strength for the share price? If this is the case, we’re going to play relatively sane, allocating 150p as a trigger level which should provoke further price recovery to some surprising levels.

In the event the price closes a session above 150p, we’re expecting moves toward an initial 175p where a challenge of the downtrend since 2017 looks certain. Should this initial ambition be exceeded, things start to become a little “game changing” as further travel to 250p becomes possible. This is thanks to a longer term prospect appearing, up at 343p and effectively matching the all time high.

 

We’ve opted to emplace a wide trigger level as only above 150p shall we feel the share price has dusted off the effects of Covid-19 and intends embrace the future.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:10:06PM	BRENT	44.42									Success
9:13:22PM	GOLD	1841.21									Success
9:16:36PM	FTSE	6254	6238	6229	6200	6272	6316	6333	6372	6270	‘cess
9:20:29PM	FRANCE	5070.5									Success
9:23:29PM	GERMANY	13104.08									Success
9:26:43PM	NASDAQ	10864									Shambles
9:28:37PM	US500	3259.62									Success
9:34:55PM	DOW	26835	26762	26731	26632	26886	26890	26935	26992	26801	Success
9:37:21PM	JAPAN	22732									‘cess

 

21/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6269 points. Change of 0.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,607,940,554 a change of 26.84%

20/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6261 points. Change of -0.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,421,196,230 a change of -0.8%

17/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6290 points. Change of 0.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,456,693,938 a change of 6.54%

16/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6250 points. Change of -0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,183,257,766 a change of -22.26%

15/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6292 points. Change of 1.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,380,801,480 a change of 18.89%

14/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6179 points. Change of 0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,525,816,471 a change of 16.23%

13/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6176 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,893,865,356 a change of -14.27%