Trends And Targets

Bitcoin #CAC40 #Japan Wonder if this would crash or just do nothing, ever again, if renamed BRITcoin? Our distrust of Bitcoin remains as strong as ever, though the fake currency is starting the exhibit some interesting potentials for the longer term. Or given the speed it can sometimes move, anytime soon!

For us, the key number against Bitcoin is now at 5398. Essentially, if it closes a session above such a point, we can extrapolate coming recovery to an initial 6034. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 7496 but before considering such, it’s worth dwelling on the visual implication at 6034. Such an ambition virtually matches a plateau achieved during 2018 with the inevitable suggestion any rise shall find a glass ceiling awaiting at the 6,000 level.

Remaining on the subject of visual implications, it appears the price of Bitcoin has successfully extracted itself from the ruling downtrend and now, appears to be making an effort. However, there is the RED line across the bottom of the chart, presently at 3485. Concern would be justified with weakness below this level, now signalling the potential of travel to 2778. In itself, not particularly alarming as the entity would need trade below 2035 to justify outright panic.

At present, 2035 signals our “ultimate” bottom for Bitcoin, this being the level we cannot calculate below. Absolutely nothing suggests this is a risk.  For now, anyway!

9/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7425 points. Change of -0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,955,046,308 a change of 21.99%

BT Group #Gold #SP500 BT are a share with a painfully obvious uptrend since the market crash of 2009. Equally, the price has taken a hammering since the Brexit vote of 2016 with the share eventually achieving a logical bottom at 200p. The period since has tended mirror UK political confusion with the share price not knowing what to do!

The immediate situation is fairly straightforward, if somewhat worrying. Unless the price manages above 237p, it’s trading in a region where weakness now 214p below indicates coming reversal to a pretty tame looking 205p. If broken, our secondary calculation rings alarm bells at 190p.

We’ve a big problem, if 190p opts to make a guest appearance!

Visually, this will present a Lower Low. Worse, it takes the price firmly into a zone where longer term reversal to 99p becomes a very distinct possibility. We would, however, expect a bounce at 99p due to the price coming close to the worst of “the crash” of 10 years ago.

What happens if it somehow manages above 237p?  It appears slight recovery to an initial 243p is possible. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 264p, along with some almost certain hesitation as the price matches some prior highs.

For now, like politics, it’s complicated…

8/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7451 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,881,615,265 a change of -9.98%

The WD-40 Company #Brent #DAX and The Grand Tour (aka Top Gear). Recent weeks witnessed our little tractor suffering a slow service. Every single job was interrupted by dodgy weather, seized bolts, frozen nuts, or everything at once. It never occurred, despite a plethora of lubricants in use, they were all actually produced by the same company. An email asking us to review WD40 changed everything!

Household names such as 3-in-1, WD40, even Solvol, each have featured in the battle to get the tractor ready for the summer season. Thanks to someone asking for a report prior to WD40 reporting some earnings on Tuesday, we discovered this single company is being tasked with ensuring the red & yellow single seater lasts through the summer season. Certainly, with the task of removing just one of the big rear wheels requiring an entire can of WD40 (and a fire extinguisher when a blow torch was also applied), our thoughts should have turned to the products origins earlier. It would also have given a reasonable excuse to further delay a horrible manual labour job, one guided by numerous YouTube videos.

Firstly, the Big Picture ensured we could calculate 165 as a reasonable upper target for WD40, this being a maximum level for the share price. It achieved this level last year in August and in the period since, the share has oscillated above and below such an ambition. It would be churlish not to acknowledge the bias of movements have tended above this level, creating the situation where movement now above 177 should prove capable of a lift to 186, effectively challenging prior all time highs. Closure above 186 will tend suggest future movement to 199 can be expected.

If trouble is planned, weakness now below 161 should signal some reversal coming to an initial 152, along with the challenge of the immediate RED uptrend. Ideally some sort of rebound can be hoped at such a level as weakness below 152 risks real trouble, breaking the trend and permitting a journey down to 140. This sort of nonsense risks quite horrible long term ramifications, taking the share into a region where 112 calculates as an eventual “bottom” level. We’d be happier if this sort of target did not make visual sense, given the shares historic dance steps.

For now, the bias above 165, along with the small fortune we’ve spent on the company’ products, gives some hope for the future. As mentioned, they are due to report some results once the Nasdaq closes on Tuesday.

As for The Grand Tour, their Mongolian episode must – in this writers opinion – rank as Clarkston & Co at their most entertaining. And we didn’t see them use WD40 once!

5/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,422,780,850 a change of -8.07%

4/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7401 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,898,709,129 a change of -18.49%

#Dax #SP500 We remain confused at the debate as to whether the UK should exit the Eurovision Song Contest. Political manoeuvres making the stock market difficult to read, a media similarly confused as to their stance, and a distinct problem with the FTSE at roughly 7442.915 points all conspire to make this Brexit nonsense chaotic.

The only thing we’re inclined to take seriously is our 7442 level, this important point in history delineated by BLUE on the chart below. Apparently, the FTSE faces a 300 point rise should the UK market ever stumble above such a point. It’s also worth pointing out the FTSE has experienced an 800 point rise so far this year, a 12.25 gain which is quite at odds with all the predictions of doom.

If the market makes it above 7442, we anticipate a further 300 point gain for the market.

Near term it’s a different story as there’s a risk of weakness establishing. Below 7367 looks capable of reversal to an initial 7340. If broken, our secondary calculates down at 7313 points. Neither reversal ambition presents a real worry as the RED uptrend is presently at 7143 points. But to be honest, we’d have raised eyebrows should anything permit 7313 to break as it will tend suggest weakness becoming established.

Surprisingly, if we ignore the BLUE trend line (presently 7442), the immediate calculation suggests above 7420 should generate lift to 7458 near term. If bettered, secondary is a rather more useful 7563. We have our doubts, especially as the market appears to be giving the BLUE downtrend a body swerve at present, signalling we’re not the only folk with coloured crayons!

We remain suspicious the index will continue oscillate between RED and BLUE until such time someone raised a white flag and surrenders over the Brexit issue, finally allowing direction to make itself known.

Superdry #Brent # Following Superdry’ somewhat funny shareholders meeting, we’d prepared a detailed analysis of the company potentials. But something (experience?) made us delay for a day, just to see what happened next as there was a single alarm bell making us doubt our optimistic stance. [Warning; teacher mode follows]

When a downtrend is as neatly defined as SDRY’s, a trend break which fails to perform flamboyantly is always a worry. Worse, and perhaps more importantly, if the share price closes below the point of trend break, we’ve learned caution is often a worthwhile stance.

SDRY broke the trend at 541p back on March 25th.

It failed to gain any real upward momentum, instead closing the session of April 2nd at 500p. Despite the BLUE trend line being at 499.375 and thus, the share remaining in positive territory, it was now substantially below the point of trend break. As a result, we dared not trust it.

Price moves on the 3rd April tended justify our caution and instead of an article devoted entirely to future positives, the share deserved something which reviewed both sides of the argument. Which is a pity, ‘cos seeing a BoD resign en-masse at the prospect of the company founder returning with the intention of saving the company was quite refreshing.

The situation now is slightly alarming. Weakness continuing below 433 looks capable of reaching 386p, hopefully able to generate a bounce at such a level. If broken, we can calculate bottom at 265p eventually.

The share price needs a miracle above 576p before anyone dare relax for the longer term, this level apparently being a trigger for recovery to an initial 750p with secondary, if beaten, a longer term 1079p.

For now, while a bounce at 386 looks pretty possible, we have a sneaking suspicion the price shall eventually bottom down at 265p. Perhaps it’s one worth keeping an eye on for the longer term.

3/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7418 points. Change of 0.37%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,236,665,904 a change of 13.48%

2/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7391 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,377,319,208 a change of 3.85%

Fevertree #DAX #NASDAQ As it’s spring, Tuesday (in our bit of Scotland) started with a covering of snow, along with ice covered windscreens. Adding to the cheer was our little tractor, devoid of a big back wheel, awaiting work on its brakes. Some days, share prices inspire similar levels of enthusiasm for getting a job done….

Thankfully, Fevertree does not join this grouping as the price looks capable of some continued movement upward as above 3190 now suggests coming recovery to an initial 3382. If exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at a comfortable 3800. We’re mildly enthusiastic over this, if only due to the price ending its self imposed exile below 2950 and now closing solidly above its glass ceiling.

As always, we’ve spotted a fly in the ointment. (why would a fly be in ointment?)

The RED uptrend on the chart delineates closing prices since 2016. The inset on the chart illustrates how the price has closed during the most recent 4 sessions. Visually, the market is avoiding the share closing above the prior trend and this is always a worry. It appears growth cannot be safely assumed until the share price closes above the prior uptrend, presently at 3075p.

The problem we have with these games is fairly simple. Until the price actually closes above this trend, it remains trading in a region where weakness below 2470 risks reversal to an initial 1923. If broken, secondary computes down at 1196p.

We suspect it intends head upward, perhaps just awaiting some sort of news report.

2/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7391 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,377,319,208 a change of 3.85%

1/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7317 points. Change of 0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,140,820,056 a change of -14.64%

Versarien #Gold #SP500 April appears to have started with positive feeling across the market place. Of course, it could be an elaborate practical joke by politicians, designed to obscure the slightly important detail they are failing to govern the country. Are they really voting to decide whether to have a vote about a vote? The TV show, “Yes, Minister” seems now a work of documentary.

When we last reviewed Versarien in February (link here), we’d speculated on the potential of them dropping to 62p. The intervening period highlights the share price “only” relaxed to 67p before exhibiting a reasonable bounce with the result, some optimism is possible for the future.

The immediate situation appears quite straightforward.

Price growth exceeding 120p should now make an attempt at an initial 125p. Visually, the price has form at this level, suggesting some sort of stumble awaits. Longer term, in the event it manages above 125p, we’re calculating a secondary at 145p, along with the potential for future game changing growth.

We’re pretty comfortable proposing a glass ceiling awaits at 125p, if only due to the whole bunch of folks trapped at this level since October last year and exercising common sense to bail at break even. This, alone is pretty certain to cause a stutter. Of course, there is also the bunch of folk who can draw lines, assuming the price is about to hit this mythical thing called resistance. With closure above 125p, we’d take this as early warning for longer term growth above the 125p “glass ceiling”.

The share needs wither below 100p to justify raised eyebrows, once again entering a weakness cycle with 60p calculating as the next target. If broken, it should bottom at 53p.

1/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7317 points. Change of 0.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,140,820,056 a change of -14.64%