Trends And Targets

#Gold #CAC40 #AO.com, the online retailer specialising in household appliances and electricals, appears worth a glance, despite their irritating advertising jingle.

Then again, whatever agency tasked with the job of making something appealing out of two single letters did face an unenviable task. The companies prior name, Appliances Online didn’t really give greater scope for artistic creativity.

However, we’re more interested in their share price potentials as we continue our occasional scan through online suppliers, pretty convinced “proper” shops face a dodgy future in any post Covid-19 world. The only issue, one which is pretty major, will come from shoppers who prefer ‘look and feel’, prior to making a choice. Personally, it would be correct to admit choosing a specific camera in a High St outlet, opting to actually buy the device online due to it being 50 quid cheaper. The days of being “sold” an item by informed staff are, broadly speaking, gone, when frequenting one of these retail parks where the only real advantage is the parking.

 

AO.com appear to have a share price giving hope for the future. Movement next above 104p suggests truly unimpressive travel to 109p next. With closure above 109p, things become interesting as continued moves to an initial 140p are hoped for. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 183p and visually, a chance the share price shall hopefully break through the glass ceiling established since 2015.

As always, we can counter this positive attitude with a case of nerves. We’d be quite concerned, should the price find any excuse to now settle below 85p as this risks promoting reversal to 71p. If broken, our secondary works out at a ridiculous sounding 47p, an ambition which matches the Covid-19 low of March!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:02PM	BRENT	35.69									Success
10:15:11PM	GOLD	1733	1726	1715	1698	1744	1746	1756.75	1761	1739	‘cess
10:18:46PM	FTSE	6062.83									Success
10:20:56PM	FRANCE	4505	4420	4393	4350	4486	4523	4564.5	4617	4436	Shambles
10:33:25PM	GERMANY	11083									Shambles
10:36:34PM	US500	2950									Success
10:40:58PM	DOW	24572									Success
10:44:33PM	NASDAQ	9327									Shambles
10:46:29PM	JAPAN	20562									Success

 

18/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 6048 points. Change of 4.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,947,351,021 a change of 14.48%

15/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of 1.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,195,107,449 a change of -15.28%

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of 0%

 

 

#Brent #DAX When we last reviewed Aston Martin back in January (link) we proposed a pretty foul drop potential of 170p eventually. As the share was trading around the 4 quid level, such a drop ambition appeared positively insane. But with Covid-19, the mighty fell and in Astons case, our 170p was to prove a brief 1 month moment in time as the market had a greater punishment in store.

 

The share price also supplies a pretty solid example of what we mean, when warning of a movement breaking target on an initial surge. In this scenario, a break, especially closure, below a target (in a dropping price example) tends nullify any “what happens next”, if the target level given is a secondary. In plain English, anyone planning a super bounce from 170p was liable to be disappointed as any rebound was liable to prove fairly short lived. This sort of thing occurs too often to be ignored with the result we rarely trust any share (in a falling market) when a major drop target is broken.

There is an important caveat.

What about if the target is broken in the first second of trade? Should this occur, we pay very close attention to what happens next, thanks to opening second downward spikes often being the harbinger of surprise price recovery. Our rule of thumb allows 90 minutes for a price to exceed the level at which the market is showing the day opening at. If this is the case, continued recovery is probable.

 

As for Aston Martin, the share price certainly has some issues as it’s presently trading in a region where we can calculate “Ultimate” bottom at 20p. We’re unable to calculate below such a level and suspect below 27.5p shall signal, hopefully, a final surge downward. However, there’s a chance the recent low of 27.5p shall be deemed “close enough” to indicate some residual strength in the price, resulting in the immediate situation where recovery next exceeding 40p should prove capable of returning the price to the 55p level initially. If exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at 87p and realistically, we shall require stirring the tea leaves again at such a point.

Closure above 87p does certainly allow 142p to make an appearance but we never trust price targets where the calculation dumps a share price in the middle of a prior gap movement. We’re unable to think of a single instance when this sort of scenario proved viable as a miracle recovery will generally ‘cover the gap’ with a flamboyant movement. Or fizzle out completely.

Who knows, perhaps Silverstone hosting 2 Grand Prix (behind closed doors) in July shall provide Red Bull / Aston a chance to shine!

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
3:48:47PM	BRENT	33.1	31.43	30.925	30.2	32.44	33.1	33.41	34.79	31.45	Success
3:23:24PM	GOLD	1743									Success
3:48:50PM	FTSE	5834									‘cess
4:03:23PM	FRANCE	4291									‘cess
4:05:39PM	GERMANY	10516	10370	10313	10233	10471	10510	10553	10609	10410
4:08:00PM	US500	2860.77									Shambles
4:16:55PM	DOW	23660
4:18:37PM	NASDAQ	9127									‘cess
4:20:29PM	JAPAN	20022

#Gold #Dow #FTSE Two wood pigeon, a crow, and a magpie walked into a bar and none of them were even blonde! Walking in the forest on Thursday, the same 4 birds looked deep in conversation, just standing on the grass. Grudgingly, they flew off before the camera app would even start. The FTSE, down 3.5% at the time, was clearly the victim of the animals scheming as there was no doubt they were up to no good.

 

When the markets experience “A Day” such as Thursday, curiosity demands the cause be identified with the first check being the Business section of Google News, always expecting the media to be misreporting something Trump or Johnston has said. The next choice is presently China and aside from a brilliant headline – “China Threatens to Stop Buying Aussie Politicians” – there was nothing clear. It’s Thursday and US weekly jobless claims day, an event usually capable of driving the market upward regardless how many people are not eating properly. Oil prices proved pretty useless, Gold was slightly interesting. But UK and Europe indexes had taken a stupid pill, as had the US market futures prior to the open.

It looked like our initial suspects, the 2 fat pigeons, a crow, and a magpie, must indeed be the culprits thanks to conventional news sources being utterly divided as to the cause of a day of flamboyant drops. Of course, it’s the markets, and sometimes things happen because things happen. However, from our perspective, there was to be something pretty useful with the level of drops achieved, one of the rare situations where we can be pretty confident of a future scenario.

 

There appears to be a pretty major trigger level down at 5,660 points. Movement now below such a point promises reversal to an initial 5,550 points followed by a bounce of sorts. But if 5,550 breaks, it’s easy to suspect a secondary of 5,395 shall make itself known pretty fast. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 5,775 and hideously wide. It’s possible 5,720 will suffice but the levels of volatility presently are tending demand absurd stop levels.

Equally, it’s visually possible no stop shall be required if the movement triggers as reversal risks being swift.

 

A contrary scenario asks, what happens if the FTSE (not after hours futures) exceeds 5,775 points? In such a case, we’d hope for movement to an initial 5,851 points with secondary, if bettered, at 5,907 points. Put plainly, we’re about to experience a “Fingers Crossed Friday!”

Have a good weekend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:39:56PM	BRENT	31.77	30	29.505		31	31.8	31.915		30.27	‘cess
10:42:15PM	GOLD	1730.72	1710	1701		1719	1737	1741.75		1721	Success
10:44:19PM	FTSE	5789.07	5720	5688.5		5790	5801	5849.5		5724	Success
11:02:27PM	FRANCE	4303.02	4242	4170		4303	4315	4323.5		4242	Success
11:04:48PM	GERMANY	10462	10164	10076		10286	10481	10566		10355	Success
11:14:32PM	US500	2851.84	2828	2810.5		2860	2859	2864		2831	Success
11:17:06PM	DOW	23634	23223	23095		23420	23683	23813.75		23430	Success
11:19:00PM	NASDAQ	9093	8930	8862		9020	9116	9148.5		9016	‘cess
11:20:53PM	JAPAN	20078	19900	19748.5		20100	20161	20249.25		19900	Success

 

14/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5741 points. Change of -2.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,132,234,871 a change of 5.73%

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of 0%

 

 

#Gold #DOW Once we get past a company choosing to name themselves after a Star Wars character, it’s probably worth considering the future for a company invested in airlines, hotels, cruise ships, travel, and retail stores. In fact, if you cherry-picked a list of industries liable to be affected, due to Covid-19, TUI undoubtedly picked the winning hand. When it came to travel, they’re the equivalent of a smug child owning the best properties in a game of Monopoly.

As every family knows, there’s always the risk of the Monopoly board being knocked over ‘accidentally’ and without doubt, the Coronavirus looks pretty capable of providing a pretty firm nudge against TUI’s once confident future.

TUI, the largest travel and tourism company in the world, are a massive employer internationally (Their real name is Touristik Union International) and already warn 10% of their workforce face the chop as the organisation attempts to fight what they describe, with remarkable German understatement, “the greatest crisis the industry has ever faced”.

 

Obviously, we needed to update our thoughts on their share price.

 

On March 16th, the point at which the markets experienced the first solid Covid-19 drop, TUI managed to reach a low of 218 and hasn’t really recovered since. This was a share when the end of February brought hints of danger hitting the fan, the share price was trading over 8 quid. It has already suffered a disproportionate drop, one which it looks difficult to recover properly from. The situation now suggests weakness below 218p risks reversal to 167p and hopefully a proper rebound.

We’d warn, quite firmly, of caution should 167 break on the day of any further drop. A break below 167 risks future reversal to an “Ultimate Bottom” of 15p which visually looks ridiculous. We cannot calculate below 15p.

 

Despite the visuals suggesting TUI needs above 800p to escape this mess, even a nod above the prior post-drop high of 430 shall give considerable hope for a future. We cannot calculate below 15p and are not inclined to discount it. After all, some of the retail banks hit some pretty impressive (at the time) bottoms in 2009.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:51:45PM	BRENT	29.81
9:54:33PM	GOLD	1715.43	1698	1694	1686	1710	1718	1721	1730	1706	‘cess
9:57:06PM	FTSE	5867.57									‘cess
9:59:41PM	FRANCE	4329.7									Success
10:09:03PM	GERMANY	10534									Success
10:12:51PM	US500	2824.27									Success
10:16:19PM	DOW	23309	23055	22997	22477	23346	23433	23486	23696	23388	Success
10:21:08PM	NASDAQ	9021									Success
10:23:49PM	JAPAN	20140									Success

 

 

13/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5904 points. Change of -1.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,799,712,485 a change of 7.88%

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 0%

 

 

#France #Nasdaq Purple Bricks share joins a large club of shares, where we produced analysis (link) expressing unhappiness about their share price. What we don’t “get” is all this misery dated from 2019, well before the pandemic. It was almost as if the markets were awaiting an accident to happen, any accident! Very strange indeed. Regardless the sector, we’d noticed many shares feeling like they needed an excuse to jump off a cliff. We’re pretty sure no-one expected Covid-19 with the level of reversals sometimes breaking below our worst case scenarios.

 

Purple Bricks had calculated with a Big Picture bottom potential of 31p, a price level briefly exceeded on March 18th of this year. We could not comfortably calculate a point below 31p and the single day which reached 22p before a rebound wasn’t noticed, thanks to the riotous panic pervading wider markets. Our usual argument, if a price exceeds a drop target then any bounce risks being short lived is perhaps not valid against Purple but we shall review the miserable side of life, despite the break below 31p proving (thus far) to be a fleeting event. We can now calculate below 31p, thanks to movements since March 18th.

Price movement now below 29p looks capable of a downward drift to 20p next with secondary, if broken, at a bottom of 12.5p. Once again, we can pronounce an “Ultimate Bottom” for Purple and it’s at 12.5p. We cannot calculate below this level.

 

However, care has been taken to respect the 31p level, despite the little hiccup in march. The situation now appears to suggest any recovery exceeding 47p should hear to an initial 63p. Visually, this makes some sense. If exceeded, the longer term secondary works out at 108p and theoretically returns the price to the level at the start of the current disaster. With an additional 50,000 deaths in the UK, could this be a dreadful reflection of a surprise influx of property about to appear on the market?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:43PM	BRENT	29.83
10:04:47PM	GOLD	1703.16									Success
10:06:39PM	FTSE	5888									Sorry
10:19:25PM	FRANCE	4412.2	4412	4400.5	4345	4490	4463	4476.5	4498	4444	‘cess
10:22:05PM	GERMANY	10589.34									Success
10:24:11PM	US500	2843.67									Success
10:27:39PM	DOW	23577									Shambles
10:40:59PM	NASDAQ	9067	9046	9012.5	8900	9106	9107	9116.5	9140	9057	Shambles
10:43:33PM	JAPAN	20052									Success

12/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5994 points. Change of 0.93%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,375,886,438 a change of -7.35%

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of 0%

 

 

 

 

#Gold #DOW Last year #Halfords share was at 241p when we gave rational (link) which pointed at a bottom of 31p. It hit 49p and bounced, thankfully. We’ve always liked this share as it’s one generally worth a pre-summer glance. This year, we’re not being quite as gloomy as last, quite the opposite in fact. There’s a reasonable chance Halfords share price faces some upward exertion fairly soon.

Of course, part of the reason for this stems from our last report and the comment about “post-apocalyptic worlds”. In reality, we are talking about post-pandemic waistlines with lockdown doubtless producing an ever-growing number of households finding out their clothes no longer fit properly. The somewhat confused “back to work” announcement by the UK PM should really have given folk a few days in which to purchase new workwear as the nation hits a period akin to children returning to school following the summer break.

Perhaps Asda has missed a trick here and should produce a parody of their “Back to School” adverts, one which boasts the benefit of their stretchy 36-inch waistline ranges…

 

Wardrobe malfunctions aside, how’re things looking for Halfords?

 

We’re fairly optimistic about their future as the price has now closed above the Glass Ceiling which formed at 187p. In a normal world, we’d regard this as a reliable trigger level, one which should prove capable of movements now above 189p starts an uphill cycle to an initial 225p. If such a lofty ambition is exceeded, our longer term secondary calculates at a higher 283p. To be fair, we’re not quite as comfortable with the secondary 283p ambition, thanks to yet another Glass Ceiling, one lying in wait around the 265p level.

The share price requires to break Red, presently at 100p, to justify panic as an attempt at our 31p “ultimate bottom” shall look certain. For now, we’re impressed with the price, just not impressed with several pairs of jeans!

GOOGLEFINANCE("GOOG","price",TODAY()-30,TODAY())

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:08:17PM	BRENT	30.41									‘cess
10:10:29PM	GOLD	1698.22	1691	1688.5	1677	1700	1700	1702	1706	1696	‘cess
10:13:03PM	FTSE	5957.88									‘cess
10:15:19PM	FRANCE	4509.2									Success
10:17:53PM	GERMANY	10868									Shambles
10:20:32PM	US500	2926.07
10:22:24PM	DOW	24202.4	24061	23963.5	23768	24297	24364	24449.5	24579	24239	Success
10:24:48PM	NASDAQ	9290.24									Success
10:26:33PM	JAPAN	20482									Success

11/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5939 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,802,382,632 a change of 2.67%

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 0%

 

 

 

GOOGLEFINANCE(“GOOG”,”price”,TODAY()-30,TODAY())

GOOGLEFINANCE("GOOG","price",TODAY()-30,TODAY())

#Brent #SP500 #ASOS It feels odd, writing a report for a Holiday Monday which isn’t a holiday! The decision to move the May Monday holiday to a Friday for jingoistic reasons has proven both dangerous and confusing, creating an “any excuse for a street party” and demolished social distancing in some parts of the country.

It was written, at the start of the pandemic, infection levels were to depend on 2 things.

1. How dense the population was.
2. How dense the population was.

Pictures from several areas tended to confirm suspicions about both item 1 and item 2 above.

 

We’re now at the stage where a few high street stores are suggesting they shall NOT re-open all their branches, once the all-clear is sounded. Equally, the hospitality sector is warning many pubs, restaurants, and hotels will not open their doors again as their financial options and resources run dry. The additional factor, many people opting to remain cautious for a prolonged period will also hit business.

It was almost amusing, watching the UK PM give a speech which didn’t actually relate to the UK, only England in the main. Even worse, given against a backdrop of Her Majesty deciding to vanish from public view for the next two or three months regardless of anything her Prime Minister said. One suspects the Queen has access to better information than given by the UK Government.

 

Of course, all this strongly points at a future for online shopping, so we decided to glance at Fashion and Cosmetic retailer ASOS Plc, especially after spotting my wife using (aka playing with) their Augmented Reality facility.

At present, the future for ASOS looks pretty strong.

 

Currently trading around 2825p, the price now needs to exceed 2840 to enter a cycle to an initial 3278p. If exceeded, our secondary target level calculates at 3733p. Our secondary target level deserves some particular interest for the longer term.

Visually it implies an attempt at a Glass Ceiling level which has developed over the last year. Crucially, for the longer term, closure above 3733p looks like it shall assume a great deal of importance, allowing the price to potentially recover to 6128p without too much in the way of trauma.

ASOS share price needs to close below Red, presently 20 quid, to cause a large degree of panic and throw a spanner at our calculations.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:02:14PM	BRENT	31.16	29.26	28.16	26.85	30.55	31.25	31.555	32.14	30.43
2:13:38PM	GOLD										‘cess
3:26:17PM	FTSE										‘cess
3:48:45PM	FRANCE										Shambles
4:52:44PM	GERMANY										Success
4:55:04PM	US500	2937	2903	2891	2875	2925	2939	2953	2967	2907	Success
4:57:47PM	DOW										‘cess
4:59:05PM	NASDAQ										Success
5:01:15PM	JAPAN										Success

 

7/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5935 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,651,341,668 a change of -8.8%

6/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5853 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,887,003 a change of 18.35%

5/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5849 points. Change of 1.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,236,126,168 a change of -8.24%

4/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5753 points. Change of -0.17%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,706,354,809 a change of 60.68%

1/05/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of -2.34%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,551,403,027 a change of -92.77%

30/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 5901 points. Change of -3.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 49,092,686,584 a change of 648.68%

29/04/2020 FTSE Closed at 6115 points. Change of 2.64%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,557,213,009 a change of 3.88%