Trends And Targets

#DOW #Brent #SP500 There’s something unsettling about the 5th largest economy in the world (the UK!) needing the NHS aided with crowdfunding, as we try to cope with the effects of Covid-19. It’s about as disturbing as one of these “xyz Relief” charity events, fronted by entertainment/sports millionaires (who’re being paid for their presence) in usually successful efforts to part the gullible from their money. It’s easy to conclude the public are seen as a soft touch, unthinking in their wish to hope they are doing the right thing.

This period of self-isolation continues to provide ample opportunity to over-think everything as the foregoing proves. Some light relief came when burning the contents of the “recycling” bin. Apparently our local council is far from unusual in suspending collections, a glance at the overflowing bin revealing it’s mostly full of flammable items. Thus, the area designated as the burning pit for debris from the trees in the garden was retasked, giving pause for thought when an overlooked plastic bottle of white spirit dregs ignited quite energetically. Judging by occasional black smoke clouds around the loch, it looks like we’re not the only folk finding a new source of entertainment.

 

Other residents in the Land of Gullible risk being market traders. We’ve reported our conclusion the markets risk being trapped for a while, stuffed into a trading range while we await the next major push (it could be up, it could be down). Monday proved such a day, the FTSE swinging from nearly 2% down to end the session nearly 1% up. Visually, there’s a risk the market intends to be trapped between 5,350 and 5,800 points or so.

At present, if the FTSE somehow manages above 5,935 points, there’s a pretty strong chance the rise shall prove genuine. A movement such as this risks triggering a further 500 point surge upward. Early warning for a miracle looks like movement now above 5,822 points.

Equally, below 5,470 risks providing early warning for a reversal toward 5,260 points. Confirmation shall be regarded as coming if the index wanders below 5,350 points.

 

As for Wall St, it has parked itself for the last 3 sessions, trapped in a useful 1,100 point range between  21,400 and 22,500 points or so.

Movement now above 22,380 is supposed to be capable of a lift to an initial 22,492 which is believable. If exceeded, secondary calculates at a more dubious 22,845 points. While writing this, news of a US Navy hospital ship docking in New York harbour has appeared, a distance just 8 miles from Wall St.

The alternate, and more likely, scenario is of weakness now below 21,830 taking Wall St down to 21,486 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 21,260 points. This is dangerous (and risks breaking the “parked” theory, driving the US index into a region where it could swiftly lose a further 700 points.

 

We live in interesting times.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:37:13PM	BRENT	26.36	25.02	23.48	20.59	26.75	26.95	27.51	28.27	25.27	Success
10:45:03PM	GOLD	1625.19
10:47:51PM	FTSE	5583.22									‘cess
10:50:05PM	FRANCE	4397
10:56:52PM	GERMANY	9875									‘cess
10:59:20PM	US500	2627.04	2505	2484.5	2435	2550	2634	2654	2688	2585	Shambles
11:02:01PM	DOW	22363
11:05:05PM	NASDAQ	7865									‘cess
11:06:51PM	JAPAN	19083

 

 

30/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5763 points. Change of 4.59%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,821,744,739 a change of -29.22%

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

 

#Gold #Nasdaq The headline, the BBC has closed down their Scottish news service, ensuring all news is controlled by London is scary. Thankfully, both Sky and RT appear to be following a different agenda, ensuring reportage of “the lockdown” has more than Derbyshire polices slanted perspective! A gloom laden weekend prompted the thought, not “how low ill the markets go. Instead, will there be markets once this is all over?”

Equally, stories of governments, the world over, printing money to alleviate hardship through these difficult times tends prompt the question; “how will nations cope with such record levels of increased National Debt?” Of course, perhaps a simple solution shall be for governments to simply cancel the added debt they owe themselves if this crisis ever ends. Then again, wasn’t this the behaviour which provoked hyper-inflation in Germany in the years prior to WW2? Maybe if all governments cancel their debt at the same time, the world shall dodge such a risk.

 

It’s proving amusing watching economists tying themselves in knots, trying to predict what will happen once lockdown completes. Given the current situation is completely new, it feels like we are just going to have to wait and see. It’s pretty certain many small businesses will never be able to re-open without eventual debt forgiveness as few are insured for current events, fewer still will have financial reserves to cope with prolonged lockdown.

 

To escape from overthinking immediate events, we’ve taken a look at Wall St and shall comment against it, daily, for the coming week. The Big Picture number on the DOW is at 18,000 points. Essentially, movement below such a level allows for panic, thanks to reversal to 14,000 being pretty likely. Unfortunately, recent moves on the index already risk troubling this level.

Now below 21,450 allows weakness toward an initial 20,392 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 19,643 points. At this level, we need to take a deep breath and steady our hands as we compute the third level, should 19,643 break. It’s down at 17,190 points, obviously breaking the 18,000 trigger and risking really severe reversals.

HOWEVER, there is something worthy of consideration and it’s shown on the chart inset. The DOW broke the uptrend since 2009 and somehow, despite world (and NY) events, has recovered above this important trend. Due to this, allegedly it’s now the case of movement above 22,330 allowing a journey to 23,207 to commence. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 24,415 points.

We’re pretty far from convinced unless some bloke, working in his garden shed in Sheffield, has a big surprise cure to announce.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:56:29PM	BRENT	27.78									Success
8:57:57PM	GOLD	1632.89	1610	1597.5	1582	1630	1644	1661	1715	1609
9:00:09PM	FTSE	5443.97
9:13:50PM	FRANCE	4324									‘cess
9:42:34PM	GERMANY	9550.01
9:43:55PM	US500	2532.77
9:46:36PM	DOW	21551
9:48:45PM	NASDAQ	7575	7565	7504	7369	7688	7820	7874.5	7977	7700
9:50:55PM	JAPAN	18740									‘cess

 

 

27/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5510 points. Change of -5.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,225,273,197 a change of 4.62%

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

#FTSE #GOLD Is this how it ends, not with a bang but with a cough? A trip* to the mainland was frightening. Rows of unused Jets at the airport, a Chinese supermarket with staff wearing masks & surgical gloves, a Pet Food supermarket with many empty shelves, roads deserted of traffic, businesses closed everywhere. A usually cheery expedition felt quite scary, especially as neither Tesco nor the Pet Food place issuing staff with protective gear. Meanwhile, the FTSE jumped 2.2% and Wall St managed a 6.4% day!

*Thanks to panic buying, our local town is devoid of 
pet food. Due to NOT panic buying, we were nearly out 
of rice, a staple for my gluten-free life. 
Thai Jasmine rice rocks, you buy a 10kg sack and forget 
about it, thinking it lasts forever! My job during the 
shopping adventure was driver, not allowed to get out 
of the car.

Without a doubt, something stinks, society in paralysis does not gel with buoyant market behaviour. Normally, bad US jobless figures tend to be reflected quite firmly on Wall Street movements. We’d expected the worst with a 10 fold jump in weekly claims. Instead, Wall St celebrated or perhaps, the market opted to react against those with short positions! Obviously, we suspect the latter argument and it’s probable the index shall pay the price in the days ahead.

 

If we suspend disbelief, it’s now the case of movement above 5815 leading to an initial 5900 points. If exceeded, the secondary is at 5950. Importantly, perhaps, we have two very different criteria currently suggesting some volatility at the 5950 level. Above 5950 remains with 6474, an “it was all a bad dream” target level.

 

It was almost reassuring seeing the FTSE rise stumble at the level of the immediate Blue downtrend. It carried a suggestion some sanity remains in the marketplace and normally we’d expect push-back anytime now. That being the case, traffic now below 5668 looks capable of reversal to an initial 5618 points, pretty useless given the severity of recent swings. If broken, secondary calculates down at 5487 points.

 

Have a good weekend and stay safe.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:45:05PM	BRENT	28.79	27.95	27.675		28.8	29.61	30.125		28.65
9:48:54PM	GOLD	1632.75	1589	1573.5		1611	1644	1652		1612	‘cess
9:51:08PM	FTSE	5809	5470	5371.5		5616	5826	5869		5710	Shambles
9:55:22PM	FRANCE	4565.7	4444	4309		4491	4567	4610		4395	‘cess
10:29:29PM	GERMANY	10038	9519	9245		9898	10113	10242		9876
10:32:22PM	US500	2625.77	2470	2437.5		2511	2643	2655.25		2548	‘cess
10:43:22PM	DOW	22522	21225	20872		21988	22675	22713		22084	‘cess
10:46:26PM	NASDAQ	7860	7396	7228		7566	7908	7924		7634	Shambles
10:48:37PM	JAPAN	19180	18417	17986		19039	19300	19338.5		18537

 

26/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5815 points. Change of 2.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,862,267,552 a change of -16.24%

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

Took a look at France, Germany, and the EuroStoxx50 indices in this one, Plus tried Money for Nothing on a semi accoustic!

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#Gold #Japan Amongst all the doom, gloom, and travel restrictions, quite a few jokes have served brighten the day. Today, the thing which brought the biggest smile was a Prince Charles Joke despite the FTSE achieving another strong up day (and meeting our initial target level).

Prince Charles is in self-isolation at Balmoral with Covid-19. Prince Andrew is in self-isolation at Royal Lodge, Windsor, with Britney-16…

 

We expressed curiosity over Tuesdays mystery movement on the FTSE, 80 points tacked onto the days trading once the market closed for the day. This followed through and Wednesday morning presented a “gap up” on the market. However, despite achieving a successful 156 point rise to our initial target level of 5616, our secondary at 5799 proved elusive, the day reaching 5741 before fading.

This was pretty firmly in line with our warning; ‘ expect a rise to fade before the secondary.‘ and confirms the risk of the overall market remaining in a downtrend.

 

For today, Thursday, we’re supposed to believe further rises are ahead, none of which we shall risk treating as real unless the market makes it above 5713 points. Such a scenario currently points at the potential of growth to an initial 5800 points with secondary, if better, at a downtrend testing 5800 points. Quite why the index calculates with 100 point movements utterly defeats us.

Unfortunately, it feels more likely some reversal is coming, if only due to the index fading before our 5799 calculation. This results in a game, where the index needs below 5400 to justify a raised eyebrow, along with reversal to 5251 points. Below this and we’re looking at 5053 points. Visually, this will undo the benefit of the last two sessions.

It’s perhaps worth remembering the US Weekly jobs figures are published on Thursday. With many businesses closed for the duration, a spike is jobless is expected, one which will doubtless be used to goose the markets.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:53:46PM	BRENT	29.5									‘cess
10:15:23PM	GOLD	1619.17	1595	1590	1578	1616	1626	1632	1658	1595
10:23:33PM	FTSE	5647									Success
10:39:20PM	FRANCE	4416.5									Success
10:50:19PM	GERMANY	9844.19									‘cess
10:52:21PM	US500	2487									‘cess
10:56:31PM	DOW	21267									Success
10:58:29PM	NASDAQ	7504.25									Exact !!
11:01:36PM	JAPAN	19123	18429	18030.5	17522	19004	19556	19690	20496	18429

25/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5688 points. Change of 4.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,386,988,784 a change of 9.28%

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

 

 

Well, this is exciting. Some stuff about the DOW, FTSE, Cable, and GOLD. Plus playing Money for Nothing on accoustic guitar.

 

 

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#France #Nasdaq Unable to recall seeing a 9% UP day on the FTSE, intraday traffic certainly deserved some scrutiny. The big surprise came from the FTSE “closing” number of 5446 points. This was a shock because the FTSE actually closed at 5367 with a 7.5% rise. Everything else came from the mystery moment of the day, called “clearing”. For the average punter, even a 7.5% day gives some considerable hope.

Annoying to say, we hadn’t bothered to give any form of rising scenario in our report yesterday, simply due to the UK index needing above 5890 at present to simply suggest the rate of descent has eased. Everything else risks being smoke and mirrors, due to the UK market already triggering serious longer-term droop potentials. However, we shall suspend disbelief and pretend we’re confident further near term rises shall prove viable.

Should the FTSE now continue above 5460 points, an initial 5616 becomes the initial calculation. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 5799 points. As the chart below highlights, the secondary certainly comes close to interfering with the Blue downtrend in the next few days. As always, there’s a fly in the ointment, due to the market already having tripped some pretty major reversal potentials. Our rule of thumb is basic, when rises occur following a drop trigger, we tend believe in our primary targets but expect a rise to fade before the secondary. Only once secondary targets are exceeded does a strong probability present of “bottom” being in.

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We suspect an attempt is being made to stabilise the markets during this current “House Arrest” phase of Covid-19. To be honest, despite rarely interacting with the outside world, the fact I cannot is already causing frustration.

 

A reverse scenario triggers, should the FTSE wander below 5160 points as reversal to an initial 5095 makes sense. Secondary, if broken, works out at 4977 points.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:45PM	BRENT	29.59									‘cess
9:36:44PM	GOLD	1630.02									Success
9:39:07PM	FTSE	5428.99									Success
9:40:28PM	FRANCE	4235	4058	4018.5	3939	4148	4257	4327	4394	4155	Success
10:00:30PM	GERMANY	9658.28									Success
10:02:19PM	US500	2450									‘cess
10:07:08PM	DOW	20743									Success
10:09:12PM	NASDAQ	7570.24	7147	7072	6901	7382	7585	7678	7772	7380	Success
10:11:48PM	JAPAN	19241									Success

24/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5446 points. Change of 9.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,589,991,645 a change of -7.97%

23/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 4993 points. Change of -3.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,333,810,024 a change of -32.33%

20/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5190 points. Change of 0.76%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 13,793,008,167 a change of 30.09%

19/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of 1.4%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,602,721,602 a change of 9.14%

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%