Trends And Targets

#SP500 #CAC40 We’ve received a few emails regarding 4d Pharma, share code DDDD and it appears those getting in touch have ample reason for their interest. A glance at their news release history obviously unearthed the inevitable mention of Covid-19 tests, along with a rather intimidating number of fields the company appear to be active. It’s an interesting one and thankfully, their share price looks poised to repay the interest.

 

Historically, 4d Pharma has experienced a pretty rough ride, the price nearly reaching the 11 quid mark before experiencing relentless reversals since 2016. There are a couple of items worthy of comment, hopefully able to prove important for the longer term.

Firstly, the Covid-19 drop in March took the share to an arithmetically perfect bottom of 24p. We cannot calculate below this level but who cares? The bounce in the period since has been pretty impressive.

Secondly, the market opted to Gap (manipulate) the share price above the Blue downtrend in April, hopefully sending a clear signal that everything has changed and an entirely new trend is commencing. If we take this Gap at face value, it was supposed to generate price recovery to 139p, something the share achieved earlier this month and now, the price has actually closed above 139p. This should prove significant as movement next above 149p looks capable of driving recovery to 181p initially. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 235p.

Visually, there’s an expectation the 235p level shall provoke some sort of hesitation but closure above this level should prove really game changing for the longer term, the share entering a region where 651p works out as possible.

 

For the present, we’re fairly optimistic against this one, the price needing trade below 84p before justifying raising an eyebrow.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:25PM	BRENT	41.04									Success
9:35:36PM	GOLD	1954.83									Success
9:37:29PM	FTSE	6089.04									Success
9:39:44PM	FRANCE	5062.5	5050	5036.5	5019	5068	5093	5108.5	5134	5059	‘cess
10:09:56PM	GERMANY	13229
10:11:31PM	US500	3404	3384	3373	3359	3408	3415	3420	3432	3400	‘cess
10:13:38PM	DOW	28032									‘cess
10:15:47PM	NASDAQ	11465									‘cess
10:25:35PM	JAPAN	23447

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

#Gold #DOW Our previous analysis on #Morrisons in February, our sadly missed favourite croissant supplier, proved quite prescient, the share price indeed making a surge down to 165p. A new diet, however, ensured the morning treat of two croissant and latte has forever vanished.

There’s nothing like substantial weight loss (without effort) to convert a confirmed fad diet sceptic into a true believer but, for me, this Keto diet has been revolutionary. Except, unfortunately, for chips, a delicacy sorely missed due to potatoes being a big “no no”. Ditching sugar was easy, ditching rice was easy, but chips (of all things) are tending to present an issue. Which is quite strange, because they were never a major part of the diet before this Keto lifestyle. But tonight, dinner was steak, mushrooms, green beans, and a pepper sauce. The only thing missing? Chips to dip into the sauce!

 

The big question, will Morrison Supermarkets survive our household no longer buying croissants, sugar, and the odd bag of chips?

 

It’s interesting to note their share price movements are suddenly doing something quite odd. The price successfully broke above the Blue downtrend since 2018 and has now reversed below the trend. This is not an encouraging signal for a share, too often representing a “gotcha suckers” pattern by the market. About the only nice thing we can suggest is, should the share next make it above 200p, the previous high, we’d expect it to recover extremely swiftly with 213p as an initial ambition with secondary, if bettered, at 249p.

 

However, the sharp price reversal below the Blue downtrend usually signals the worst, implying the prior trend is influencing matters and suggesting weakness next below 177p risks an attempt at a visually unsettling 152p. If broken, bottom calculates at 137p and hopefully a proper rebound for future recovery.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:45:42PM	BRENT	40.03
9:57:54PM	GOLD	1956.67	1937	1927	1915	1947	1963	1967.5	1972	1950	Success
10:07:20PM	FTSE	6012.15									‘cess
10:09:10PM	FRANCE	5037.7									‘cess
10:13:56PM	GERMANY	13166
10:16:11PM	US500	3379									Success
10:17:57PM	DOW	27970	27783	27675.5	27535	27900	28092	28183.5	28429	27904	‘cess
10:19:34PM	NASDAQ	11279
10:22:20PM	JAPAN	23425									Success

 

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

4/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,751,494,897 a change of 11.8%

#Brent #Dax The retail banks remain the politicians of the stock market. As in, they don’t actually do anything except cost people money. And their movements stink a bit too! #Lloyds remains a case in point, our previous report suggesting the price only required a slight nod upward to start some recovery. For 3 weeks, the share has wallowed in the gutter and now is at risk of some reversals.

The situation for Lloyds remains the same, the share price only needing exceed 30.9p to tick a box suggesting coming recovery toward an initial 34 with secondary, if exceeded, at 35.75p. If triggered, the tightest stop loss level looks like 28p. In fairness, we shall be fascinated if the market discovers an excuse to “Gap” Lloyds up above 30.9p at the start of trade as it shall become likely a cycle toward 50p is likely to commence.

Of course, there’s a massive “however” thanks to Lloyds share price closing on Friday at 25.8p. By taking this stance, the market has allowed the bank to close in the land of ‘lower lows’, the share price now visiting levels not seen since 2012. In doing so, price moves have created a situation where below 25.8 calculates with the potential of weakness to an initial 24p with secondary, if broken, now at a really surprising price level.

Both our Big Picture, along with our calculations for the current year, point quite separately to 22.35p becoming a “bottom” for this retail bank! We don’t entirely understand which this is the case but when two quite different trading scenario point to the same target level, the market usually finds such a number irresistible. The big question, obviously, remains. Should Lloyds Bank hit our 22.35p target level (in fact, ideally just above this level to imply residual strength) will it bounce?

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:36:15PM	BRENT	40.12	39.58	39.32	36.9	41	40.9	41.14	41.65	40
2:39:11PM	GOLD	1940.56
2:43:55PM	FTSE	6032.74									‘cess
3:02:34PM	FRANCE	5025
3:06:17PM	GERMANY	13187	13110	13071.5	12989	13204	13260	13350	13540	13110	‘cess
3:26:07PM	US500	3338									‘cess
3:39:06PM	DOW	27648
3:41:12PM	NASDAQ	11077									‘cess
3:49:30PM	JAPAN	23332									Success

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

4/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,751,494,897 a change of 11.8%

3/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5850 points. Change of -1.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,250,184,579 a change of -2.94%

#DOW #Nasdaq #Gold Our world famous “FTSE for FRIDAY” continues to attract surprising viewers. Currently Russia ranks as #5 in our Top Ten visitor sources, thus deserving an attempt to reciprocate the interest.  Thankfully Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean also remains a regular attendee in our Friday traffic sources, a travel ambition which shall doubtless remain unfilled (travel insurance issues).

 

For a while, it was looking like UK Sterling intended strengthen quite firmly against the Ruble. Presently trading around the 96 level, the pairing needed only exceed 101 to trigger movement to an initial 104 with secondary, if exceeded, at a longer term 109. Perhaps of greater importance, this would place the relationship in a position where a long term 114 becomes believable, challenging the all time highs of 4 years ago.

Needless to say, anything involving Sterling at present is fraught with danger, doubtless due to the UK’s increased efforts to confirm its reputation as unreliable and unsafe, internationally. This has created the situation where weakness on GBPRUB below 94 risks provoking reversal to an initial 89, something which makes visual sense. We’re less confident about our secondary calculation, down at 79.

 

FTSE for FRIDAY Despite some recent gains in the UK market, it’s not in a happy place thanks to the FTSE doing everything to signal it intends bottom around the 5,600 level. Everything, that is, except actually drop to the target level. The index does require above 6,200 points to escape this immediate danger and we suspect, while the threat remains, short positions shall continue to outperform whereas long positions shall continue to fall short of targets.

No-one ever said the market is a simple place but we feel it wise to tailor expectations in accordance with the markets mood. Grimly holding on for a Long target level to appear risks disappointment, if the index changes direction before reaching whatever ambition was in place.

The immediate situation suggests strength above 6,034 points should make an attempt at an initial 6,103 points. If bettered, our secondary calculates at 6,211 points and an attempt against the Blue trend line on the chart below.

If mischief is planned, the FTSE needs dribble below 5,942 points as this looks capable of triggering reversals to an initial 5,891 points. If broken, our secondary works out at 5,822 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:21:54PM	BRENT	40.03	39.48	39.26		41.42	41.42	42.345		40
10:29:27PM	GOLD	1946.37	1941	1934		1952	1967	1973.5		1947	Success
10:30:58PM	FTSE	5967.1	5946	5920		5984	6030	6055.5		5980
10:33:56PM	FRANCE	4977	4977	4942		5015	5074	5104.5		5021	Shambles
10:35:48PM	GERMANY	13125	13092	13027.5		13191	13227	13240.5		13119
10:37:28PM	US500	3341.47	3329	3313.5		3381	3409	3428		3350
10:42:13PM	DOW	27556.1	27453	27304		27778	27903	28042.5		27704
10:44:12PM	NASDAQ	11184	11086	10990.5		11245	11506	11590		11318
10:48:27PM	JAPAN	23082	23032	22986		23130	23256	23297.5		23108	Shambles

 

 

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

4/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,751,494,897 a change of 11.8%

3/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5850 points. Change of -1.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,250,184,579 a change of -2.94%

2/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5940 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,378,771,754 a change of 0%

#Brent #SP500 Since the Covid-19 drop in mid-March, Marks & Spencers share price has been essentially hopping on the spot. From a high this year of 224p, the share was plunged to 74p and in the period since, has ‘recovered’ to oscillate between 90p and the 120p level. Technically, we’re inclined to call this behaviour boring, as exciting as their range of cardigans. To be fair, some hope can be taken from the March visit to 74p, thanks to the Big Picture proving an ultimate drop target level of 24p.

The fact the market opted to restrain the collapse in M&S’s value does give some slight hope as we cannot reliably calculate anything below the 24p level. Perhaps this failure indicates a belief in underlying strength for the retailer, one which shall perhaps provide some surprise recovery as market conditions change.

For safety sake, our inclination is to suggest 120p being exceeded as a strong potential trigger level as this should encourage some price recovery.  Initially, we’re calculating the potential of an initial visit to 148p with secondary, if bettered, a slightly more encouraging 159p.  Unfortunately, none of these ambitions come close to challenging the downtrend (Thick Blue line) since 2015 as this presently demands the price exceed 188p to give real hope of recovery.

 

As always, there’s a flip side to the scenario and it comes, should Marks &Spencer manage below 96p. Such a level breaking currently allows for reversal to an initial 82p with secondary, if broken, hopefully a bottom of 65p. We hope M&S does not decide to go S&M with its share price!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:40PM	BRENT	40.79	39.56	39.205	38.47	40.41	41.41	41.73	42.05	40.31	Success
10:08:19PM	GOLD	1947									‘cess
10:11:47PM	FTSE	6006									Success
10:14:01PM	FRANCE	5046.7									Success
10:24:37PM	GERMANY	13254									Success
10:26:25PM	US500	3394.82	3322	3310.5	3271	3372	3429	3441.5	3462	3389	‘cess
10:32:52PM	DOW	27954									‘cess
10:35:10PM	NASDAQ	11369									‘cess
10:37:31PM	JAPAN	23171									‘cess

 

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

4/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,751,494,897 a change of 11.8%

3/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5850 points. Change of -1.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,250,184,579 a change of -2.94%

2/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5940 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,378,771,754 a change of -24.99%

1/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5862 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,837,308,187 a change of 0%

#FTSE #France A chum once explained something important about his hobby. It’s called “Fishing” because of the doubt over any success. Otherwise, it’d be called “Catching”. Hurricane seem to fall into a similar mindset, oil exploration being the focus rather than oil extraction!

Regardless, due to the lacklustre oil price, it’s pretty certain Hurricanes share price would be a shambles no matter what they were up to. Low oil prices will doubtless make some of their discoveries unviable at the present and we’re not seeing any immediate relief on the horizon for the oil market.

 

However, Hurricane does not require a great deal of movement to hopefully trigger some share price recovery. At present, the share is bouncing around the 5p level, needing above 6.6p before we’d dare suspect it’s about to trigger something useful.

Next above 6.6p calculates with an initial ambition of 8.5p with secondary, if bettered, up at 9.1p and almost certain hesitation. Only with closure above the 9.1p level shall we feel a glass ceiling has been pierced, one capable of producing some “proper” recovery toward a future 13.7p and beyond.

Alas, it’s also worth remembering the share price is languishing in a zone where we cannot calculate any further drop targets. The Big Picture makes this impossible, thanks to the price managing below our ultimate bottom number of 11p. At present, this is not a happy share.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:42:14PM	BRENT	40.1									Success
9:56:21PM	GOLD	1931
10:00:13PM	FTSE	5911	5867	5839.5	5687	5952	5955	5967.5	6001	5894	‘cess
10:02:25PM	FRANCE	4947	4945	4921.5	4872	4993	5004	5023.5	5054	4955	Success
10:05:43PM	GERMANY	12930									Success
10:09:36PM	US500	3337									Success
10:12:56PM	DOW	27566									‘cess
10:15:10PM	NASDAQ	11051									‘cess
10:19:51PM	JAPAN	23028									‘cess

 

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

4/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,751,494,897 a change of 11.8%

3/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5850 points. Change of -1.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,250,184,579 a change of -2.94%

2/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5940 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,378,771,754 a change of -24.99%

1/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5862 points. Change of -1.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,837,308,187 a change of 19.78%

28/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 5963 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,873,414,475 a change of 0%

#Gold #WallSt Quite a few contenders have popped up in the “Me Too” stakes with Covid-19. It’s probably worth examining Omega’s website as they are not exactly new to the diagnostic game, a company with which we were already familiar due to their work in the allergen field. All it took was a global pandemic to make their share price “sexy” and of interest to traders!

 

We’re able to identify a key trigger level at 73.5p, our software assuring us movement above this level should produce results. At present, the share is trading around the 65p level, so it’s doubtless worth keeping an eye open in the days ahead.

Should the price exceed 73.5p, we’re able to calculate an initial target level at 87p with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a longer term (or next day in current conditions!) 93p. The secondary is especially interesting, representing a new all time high for the share and taking it into a region where we can present a distant looking 114p as the highest level we can actually calculate. Please remember, there is absolutely no rule inhibiting a share price bettering our “maximum” levels but invariably this will represent a point around which some turbulence is possible.

 

For it all to go wrong, we’d certainly raise an eyebrow if the price managed below Red on the chart. Despite present trading conditions often greatly diluting the effects of pretty trend lines, weakness below the 50p level would be a worry, carrying the risk of reversal to 38p and hopefully a proper bounce. The implications, should 38p break, calculate as dire and suggest something quite dreadful would need occur to justify our ultimate bottom number of 3.6p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:09:58PM	BRENT	42.24									‘cess
9:12:59PM	GOLD	1928.91	1923	1902	1872	1934	1941	1950.5	1962	1930
9:19:00PM	FTSE	5940									Success
9:24:49PM	FRANCE	5054.9
9:26:55PM	GERMANY	13132
9:28:59PM	US500	3433.97
9:31:18PM	DOW	28309	27982	27826	27369	28225	28363	28387	28550	28163	Shambles
9:33:08PM	NASDAQ	11503
9:34:24PM	JAPAN	23184

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%

4/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5799 points. Change of -0.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,751,494,897 a change of 11.8%

3/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5850 points. Change of -1.52%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,250,184,579 a change of -2.94%

2/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5940 points. Change of 1.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,378,771,754 a change of -24.99%

1/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5862 points. Change of -1.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,837,308,187 a change of 19.78%

28/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 5963 points. Change of -0.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,873,414,475 a change of 40.53%

27/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 5999 points. Change of -100%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,467,869,882 a change of 0%