Trends And Targets

#Gold #SP500 In a welcome respite from Brexit nonsense, we’ve noticed Google News Business section has been dominated with a new subject. Hedge Fund guru, Neil Woodford, has a vehicle traded on the FTSE250 with the price recently getting a little bit of a hammering. It has provoked emails!

To be honest, we’d never heard of the bloke until he became famous for all the wrong reasons but, despite receiving emails regarding WPCT, we’d probably be covering it anyway. The share price is doing something almost interesting. From our perspective, the issue is fairly simple; where’s bottom going to be?

The answer, thankfully, is equally simple but what really interests us are two distinctly different calculations. Whether we employ Big Picture arguments or near term, we’re calculating a bottom price anytime soon. (Bottom, obviously not ever guaranteed, is the level at which we’d hope for a substantial rebound)

In the case of Woodford, it appears continued weakness below 58p faces reversal to an initial 55p with secondary, if broken, at 52.6p. The proximity of each number tends give hope the price to stop falling. We cannot calculate below these levels with any degree of accuracy – or hope. Working on the hope the market intends designate bottom in the 50’s, how high could it be expected to bounce? At this point, we’ve got to abandon our software to a certain extent and simply review the visuals. Any initial bounce would make sense to attempt an initial 75p, essentially making a challenge of the manipulation gap in the company share price. Our secondary, if such a level is bettered, comes along at a doubtful 86p, challenging the downtrend since 2017.

Finally, to inject common sense into the discussion, please remember we cannot calculate a target below 52.6p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:54PM	BRENT	62.03									‘cess
10:15:29PM	GOLD	1328.62	1324.6	1321.5	1313	1333	1331	1333	1336	1324
10:38:07PM	FTSE	7371.28									‘cess
10:39:19PM	FRANCE	5373.4
10:41:50PM	GERMANY	12102
10:44:10PM	US500	2889.27	2869	2864	2850	2893	2906	2924	2952	2868	‘cess
10:46:55PM	DOW	26085									‘cess
10:50:21PM	NASDAQ	7515.55									Success
10:52:22PM	JAPAN	21118									‘cess

10/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7375 points. Change of 0.6%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,927,877,834 a change of -29.61%

#Brent #DAX Sometimes this pair defies any sort of logic but, as projected last month (link here), the relationship indeed met criteria and founders from the 1.17 level down to the 1.12 level. We suspect, given the calibre of politicians involved, this was almost like predicting rain in Scotland – inevitable.

At present, the pairing needs above 1.13 just to exceed the immediate pace of descent but we shall be more interested only if it somehow exceeds 1.14 and rises to 1.1503. While fairly insignificant, things get a little more interesting if 1.153 is bettered. This will tend imply some strength is present, indicating the potential of growth toward 1.169 next. Calculating above 1.169 is a bit dodgy but the key trigger level for “proper” movement of 1.20 still appears viable.

However…

We’re occasionally mentioning “on the first surge” to highlight something useful about our target levels. For instance, the graphic above highlights that on May 31, GBPEUR achieved our 1.1285, even closing the session at exactly this level. But importantly, during the session, it broken below to 1.1268. In plain English, this created a scenario where regardless of what followed, our secondary drop target became viable.

The situation now is fairly plain as anything now below 1.12 looks very capable of travel down to an initial 1.1092 next. Secondary, if (when) broken on the first surge is at a bottom, hopefully, of 1.085. In conventional circumstances, we’d already feel comfortable assuming GBPEUR is already heading down to the 1.085 level. Below such a point will require another hard stir of the tea leaves.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
4:17:54PM	BRENT	63.03	61.47	61.045	60.3	62.85	63.28	63.54	64.23	61.96	‘cess
4:21:54PM	GOLD	1340.96									‘cess
4:26:40PM	FTSE	7349.73									‘cess
4:29:10PM	FRANCE	5362.7									Success
4:30:59PM	GERMANY	12068.31	11962	11922.5	11864	12061	12098	12160.25	12238	11962	‘cess
5:12:01PM	US500	2875									Success
5:21:37PM	DOW	26014									Success
5:49:44PM	NASDAQ	7420									Success
5:51:29PM	JAPAN	21048									Success

7/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7331 points. Change of 0.99%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,580,216,359 a change of 12.51%

#Gold  #SP500 With an interesting level of discretion, the FTSE has spent the last week scaring us silly! The problem was fairly simple. The market had broken the RED line on the chart below, moving the index into the land of pestilence, famine, dinosaurs, and rabid politicians. And then it changed…

Our thinking last week suggested a drop coming to 7106 points, something the market actually achieved on the Monday. Worse, it even broke below this level, eventually opting to rebound from 7079 points. The entire charade of reversals was played out in just 46 minutes, after the market opened for trading. In the week since, continued small daily gains now make us wonder if the FTSE just did a “gotcha” on those folk taking short positions, once they’ve assessed the competence of our countries leadership. The point at which the FTSE closed the day on Friday has tended, if we apply our usual logic, spoil any immediate drop potential.

Here’s the thing – to quote Simon Cowell. (when he struggles to find new ways to avoid saying “deluded”)

The RED line on the chart, the uptrend since the start of January, is presently at 7250 points.

Alternately, the trend from the market lows of December 2018 is presently at 7258 points.

The FTSE closed Thursday at 7259 points.

If the market were a share, we’d be inclined to regard the drop to 7079 points on Monday as “fake” and instead, opt to take a more optimistic view for immediate future.

Near term, FTSE movements above 7285 should attempt recovery to an initial 7313 points. Our secondary, if bettered, calculates at 7392 points and given the pace of market movement recently, it’s unlikely to come along at a rush. The tightest stop loss level appears to be pretty wide at 7228 points.

There are some interesting potentials if 7228 breaks at travel down to 7197 appears likely. If broken, secondary is at 7151 points.

 Finally, there is a further important facet of the recent drop to 7107. The market proved the ruling uptrend can be broken, meaning any future break below 7107 is liable to promote a swift, almost 300 point, drop to the 6800’s.

Have a good weekend; it’s the  Montreal F1 Weekend and almost time for Ferrari to ritually humiliate themselves again.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:00:21PM	BRENT	62.03	59.95	59.24			62.18	62.445
10:01:59PM	GOLD	1335.99	1326	1320.5			1340	1344
10:10:36PM	FTSE	7266	7210	7200			7285	7312
10:17:04PM	FRANCE	5281	5258	5237.5			5335	5342.5			Success
10:19:44PM	GERMANY	11971.02	11893	11850			12012	12081			Shambles
10:28:22PM	US500	2840.62	2819	2807			2845	2851.25			‘cess
10:33:04PM	DOW	25700	25498	25374.5			25805	25853			Success
10:35:12PM	NASDAQ	7264.74	7199	7159			7294	7318			‘cess
10:37:03PM	JAPAN	20843	20734	20664			20907	20946

 

6/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7259 points. Change of 0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,959,645,738 a change of -22.72%

5/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7220 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,417,553,392 a change of 4.62%

#DOW #DAX For some reason, we’ve had a flurry of emails regarding energy company share prices and we’ve opted on SSE to run an analysis against. Something a bit funny appears to be happening across the entire sector. It’s showing the chances of some fairly near term recovery, against a backdrop of the big picture suggesting downward travel.

The immediate suggestion for SSE is of movement above 1111p indicating the potential of coming travel to 1182p. At best, this challenges the downtrend since last year and if above, further oomph toward 1313p becomes possible. But as always, there’s a problem.

Circled on the chart are three price movements, opening second gaps. From Left to Right, they imply the market said “this price should go down”. Then, the next one says, “yes, you recovered but we really want the price down”.

And finally, “Look, stay down. We’ve told you twice already!”

While we’re taking a rather whimsical approach, visually there can be no doubt the market REALLY expects SSE share price to relax. As a result, the big question is to where?

It looks like weakness now below 1000p shall drive the share down to 939p next. If broken, secondary calculates at 894p but we really suspect it shall have difficulty closing a day below 939p. The reason for this is fairly simple – it moves the share price into a region with the big picture demanding reversal to 683p ultimately.

To cut to the chase, our belief is, should SSE Plc reach 939p, it may well prove worth a look to catch any bounce coming.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:20:36PM	FTSE	7230									‘cess
10:24:05PM	BRENT	60.29									‘cess
10:26:00PM	GOLD	1330.94									Success
10:28:46PM	FRANCE	5295.5									‘cess
10:30:17PM	GERMANY	11992.71	11926	11898	11845	12017	12057	12080.5	12132	11950	‘cess
10:34:42PM	US500	2827.62									Success
10:37:00PM	DOW	25549	25330	25283.5	25191	25511	25561	25618.75	25765	25376	‘cess
10:42:47PM	NASDAQ	7225.32									‘cess
10:44:25PM	JAPAN										Success

 

5/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7220 points. Change of 0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,417,553,392 a change of 4.62%

#Nasdaq #CAC40 As the US President is visiting the UK, it made sense to review the maker of the aircraft in which he flies the world. If only the UK still had an indigenous maker of commercial jets, our PM could be poncing around the British Empire in an elegant DH Comet. Or half a Concorde (it was 50% French)!

As the throwaway headline above from Google News highlights, Boeing (currently trading at 343) do not need seek problems at present but their share price is proving fairly resilient – so far anyway. We do have issue with movements this year as they suggest a future descent below 330 shall attempt a landing down at 317. We expect any bounce from this level to prove short lived as there’s a heck of an argument favouring 275 as bottom. Hopefully.

A glance at the chart immediately throws up issues with an ambition at 275.

Firstly, and quite importantly, in the event 275 makes an appearance, the share will have broken the uptrend since 2016.

Secondly, and very importantly, if 275 appears, it presents a “lower low” in the grand scheme of things, taking the share into territory where a long term logical bottom is down at 175.

Third (this one is obscure) the visuals indicate the share price has now real “history” at 275. This is the sort of thing, when if a share has previously hit a high (or a low) there will be ample reason to anticipate market activity when it next revisits such a level. The best we’ve got is a couple of days in December 2017 when the price hit this level and basically did nothing interesting. We’d be hard pushed to invent a reason why this will prove important.

Collectively, the foregoing encompasses sufficient reason to distrust 275 if – and only IF – it makes an appearance. Do remember none of our criteria are yet present to justify such a dollop of misery for the future.

We suspect the circled area on the chart represents Boeings most recent aircraft incident. It feels very like the market decided, “okay, let’s start a new trend” at this point and thus, we’ve painted a Blue line. At present Boeing require better 358 just to indicate the potential of a climbing cycle to 386. If we adhere to our demand for “higher highs”, only above 365 does it actually become safe to believe in 386 as a future potential. Secondary, if such a level exceeded, calculates at an improbable 429.

We deem this improbable as it takes the price above the circled area on the chart, carrying a subliminal suggestion all is okay again in Boeings world.

For now, we’re just not sure the market has figured out a plan for this aircraft maker as the share price is on a wing and a prayer. (sorry, couldn’t resist)

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:09:12PM	BRENT	61.24
10:10:45PM	GOLD	1325.46
10:13:38PM	FTSE	7228.28									‘cess
10:16:36PM	FRANCE	5275.3	5189	5178	5144	5241	5279	5286.5	5332	5250	Success
10:25:12PM	GERMANY	11992.71									Success
10:29:02PM	US500	2808									Success
10:32:05PM	DOW	25408									Success
10:34:07PM	NASDAQ	7202	7124	7095.5	7060	7180	7202	7207.25	7246	7131	‘cess
10:36:49PM	JAPAN	20726									Success

 

4/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7214 points. Change of 0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,134,245,943 a change of 11.89%

#Gold #SP500 We received a few emails, asking if Kier was at “bottom” following the thrashing their share price received. We suspect last months news of their Finance Director “stepping down” should have provided sufficient warning something was brewing but a minus 41% day was not fun to watch.

Amazingly, there is a chance it has indeed bottomed at 157p and we’d normally hope for a bounce at this level. There is one important warning worthy of consideration and it’s fairly simple. If, for any reason, the price now CLOSES below 157p, we can calculate 70p with some bottoming potentials. And that’s it. Anything else produced now is prefaced with a minus sign.

In normal circumstances, we’d hope 157p shall indeed produce some sort of rebound and anything now continuing above 176.5p calculates with an initial target at 187p. If exceeded, our secondary comes in at 195p. Only in the event of 195p being exceeded dare we start to suspect a rebound shall prove genuine as a surge to 234p becomes possible.

Instead, our suspicion is of 157p being used as “bottom” in the days ahead, essentially permitting the price to bounce around for a while within the 157 to 195 range. By any standards, this looks a fairly useful trading range. But do remember, below 157p and our last chance saloon calculates at 70p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:44:49PM	BRENT	60.65
9:47:36PM	GOLD	1325.18	1315	1311.5	1306	1322	1329	1333	1337	1317	Success
9:51:28PM	FTSE	7181.49									‘cess
9:54:52PM	FRANCE	5212									‘cess
9:57:37PM	GERMANY	11781									‘cess
10:00:50PM	US500	2753.47	2728	2719.5	2705	2756	2759	2770	2784	2730	Success
10:03:34PM	DOW	24913.3									‘cess
10:14:41PM	NASDAQ	7007									Success
10:17:06PM	JAPAN	20466

3/06/2019 FTSE Closed at 7184 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,482,318,387 a change of -12.64%

SHELL #Brent #DAX When we last reviewed Shell, we’d expected a bounce at 2167 but, thankfully, the share price rebounded just above this point at 2200p. Perhaps it indicates strength? Crude Oil prices are being hammered, so we should really reviewed Shells potentials again.

The immediate situation is slightly dangerous as weakness now below 2440 suggests some travel coming down do 2359p next. Visually, this is pretty non threatening but issues start to develop with closure below such a point. Essentially, it opens the door for further relaxation down to 2177p and this time, we suspect it shall hit.

The chart below highlights a major issue, should 2177 make an appearance. The price shall break below the uptrend since 2016 and thus, enter ambiguous territory where a series of severe drops become possible, potentially down to 1725p or worse. Some good news comes from Shells traditional strength as there are suggestions 2177 should prove capable of providing a realistic rebound.

Even from an immediate perspective, we’d have considerable hope if Shell somehow found sufficient excuse to better BLUE on the chart, presently at 2568p. This would, quite realistically, move the price into a region where a new high of 2984p becomes target.

For now, we suspect it shall prove worth watching in the months ahead for 2177 taking the stage.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
8:09:48PM	BRENT	61.72	61.37	59.655	57.94	65.75	65.75	66.515	68.23	63	Success
8:12:25PM	GOLD	1305.85									Success
8:14:08PM	FTSE	7150.43									Success
8:16:41PM	FRANCE	5201.5									Success
8:19:51PM	GERMANY	11710	11659	11626	11524	11844	11832	11891	11971	11670	Success
8:22:03PM	US500	2813.43									Success
8:25:36PM	DOW	24806									Success
8:27:46PM	NASDAQ	7134									Success
8:31:22PM	JAPAN	20428									Success

 

31/05/2019 FTSE Closed at 7161 points. Change of -0.79%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,275,892,919 a change of 35.09%