Trends And Targets

At 3am and a quirky shot of the moon, the clouds, a couple of @Western_Ferries dozing on the Holy Loch, Argyll. Oh, and a “ghost” in the wheelhouse too? @Argyll_IslesApp

FTSE for FRIDAY #DAX #NASDAQ Sometimes a headline successfully says nothing and Reuters managed in beautifully on Thursday. Our own version would read; “we don’t have a clue, neither does the stock market, neither do politicians”. But we do have trigger levels!

The other day, we warned to pay attention to our initial targets but we’d a lack of confidence in our secondary upper target levels. It’s almost like the market itself was listening as now, the UK index requires better 7444 points before we dare take any rise seriously. A miracle such as this should signal coming growth to an unimpressive 7458 points. If exceeded, secondary calculates at 7470 points.

If triggered, the tightest stop appears to be at 7406 points.

The alternate comes with weakness now below 7383 as reversal on the FTSE down to 7358, followed by some sort of bounce makes sense. If broken, things are liable to get a little exciting  as our secondary calculates at 7260 points!

We’ve very little to go on, given movements this week, which give any confidence for coming market direction. If we’d to guess, the visuals tell us not to be surprised at an attempt to match prior highs, making a near term ambition of 7470 fairly sane.

Have a good weekend. It is a F1 one, hopefully as good as the previous two.

11/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7417 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,877,766,221 a change of 2.92%

ASOS #Brent #Nasdaq Like most folk with interest in the markets, we glance at Google News to catch any important business headlines. The screenshot below, highlighting a BBC news story panicked us, due to ASOS being “one we cover” and a share we’d been expecting to rise!

A quick glance at what was really happening revealed ASOS had grown by 14%, a motion quite at odds with the headline news. It did make us wonder how many folk bailed positions or dumped shares, thanks to a media intent on the dramatic, when indulging a quick review of a 7am RNS from ASOS. To be blunt, we suspect the BBC did absolutely zero journalism, instead doubtless relying on a press release via a 3rd party (a brokerage?) to give a sense of  looming disaster. Even a glance at the RNS wording would have given the media some pause for thought.

Folks who dumped shares were doubtless feeling mildly irritated by 10am as the share price peaked for the day.

Unfortunately, the story gets worse – or better. The immediate situation is mildly encouraging, the price of ASOS now having closed above the glass ceiling which formed following their “profit warning” in December. Generally, this is a good thing, moving the share price into a scenario where we can calculate moves now above 3673 should bring further growth to a modest 3826p. If exceeded, our secondary for the longer term comes in at 4338p, rather neatly covering the circled gap and suggesting the drop was doubtless overcooked. Despite being able to calculate a rosy future beyond 4338p, we shall need stir the tea leaves again should such a number appear in the future.

Of course, this is the stock market and always capable of a good giggle at the investors expense. In the case of ASOS, the share price presently requires to slink below 2790p to signal incoming danger with reversal to 2100p initially probable.

10/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7421 points. Change of -0.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,710,942,960 a change of -4.1%

Bitcoin #CAC40 #Japan Wonder if this would crash or just do nothing, ever again, if renamed BRITcoin? Our distrust of Bitcoin remains as strong as ever, though the fake currency is starting the exhibit some interesting potentials for the longer term. Or given the speed it can sometimes move, anytime soon!

For us, the key number against Bitcoin is now at 5398. Essentially, if it closes a session above such a point, we can extrapolate coming recovery to an initial 6034. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 7496 but before considering such, it’s worth dwelling on the visual implication at 6034. Such an ambition virtually matches a plateau achieved during 2018 with the inevitable suggestion any rise shall find a glass ceiling awaiting at the 6,000 level.

Remaining on the subject of visual implications, it appears the price of Bitcoin has successfully extracted itself from the ruling downtrend and now, appears to be making an effort. However, there is the RED line across the bottom of the chart, presently at 3485. Concern would be justified with weakness below this level, now signalling the potential of travel to 2778. In itself, not particularly alarming as the entity would need trade below 2035 to justify outright panic.

At present, 2035 signals our “ultimate” bottom for Bitcoin, this being the level we cannot calculate below. Absolutely nothing suggests this is a risk.  For now, anyway!

9/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7425 points. Change of -0.35%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,955,046,308 a change of 21.99%

BT Group #Gold #SP500 BT are a share with a painfully obvious uptrend since the market crash of 2009. Equally, the price has taken a hammering since the Brexit vote of 2016 with the share eventually achieving a logical bottom at 200p. The period since has tended mirror UK political confusion with the share price not knowing what to do!

The immediate situation is fairly straightforward, if somewhat worrying. Unless the price manages above 237p, it’s trading in a region where weakness now 214p below indicates coming reversal to a pretty tame looking 205p. If broken, our secondary calculation rings alarm bells at 190p.

We’ve a big problem, if 190p opts to make a guest appearance!

Visually, this will present a Lower Low. Worse, it takes the price firmly into a zone where longer term reversal to 99p becomes a very distinct possibility. We would, however, expect a bounce at 99p due to the price coming close to the worst of “the crash” of 10 years ago.

What happens if it somehow manages above 237p?  It appears slight recovery to an initial 243p is possible. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 264p, along with some almost certain hesitation as the price matches some prior highs.

For now, like politics, it’s complicated…

8/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7451 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,881,615,265 a change of -9.98%

The WD-40 Company #Brent #DAX and The Grand Tour (aka Top Gear). Recent weeks witnessed our little tractor suffering a slow service. Every single job was interrupted by dodgy weather, seized bolts, frozen nuts, or everything at once. It never occurred, despite a plethora of lubricants in use, they were all actually produced by the same company. An email asking us to review WD40 changed everything!

Household names such as 3-in-1, WD40, even Solvol, each have featured in the battle to get the tractor ready for the summer season. Thanks to someone asking for a report prior to WD40 reporting some earnings on Tuesday, we discovered this single company is being tasked with ensuring the red & yellow single seater lasts through the summer season. Certainly, with the task of removing just one of the big rear wheels requiring an entire can of WD40 (and a fire extinguisher when a blow torch was also applied), our thoughts should have turned to the products origins earlier. It would also have given a reasonable excuse to further delay a horrible manual labour job, one guided by numerous YouTube videos.

Firstly, the Big Picture ensured we could calculate 165 as a reasonable upper target for WD40, this being a maximum level for the share price. It achieved this level last year in August and in the period since, the share has oscillated above and below such an ambition. It would be churlish not to acknowledge the bias of movements have tended above this level, creating the situation where movement now above 177 should prove capable of a lift to 186, effectively challenging prior all time highs. Closure above 186 will tend suggest future movement to 199 can be expected.

If trouble is planned, weakness now below 161 should signal some reversal coming to an initial 152, along with the challenge of the immediate RED uptrend. Ideally some sort of rebound can be hoped at such a level as weakness below 152 risks real trouble, breaking the trend and permitting a journey down to 140. This sort of nonsense risks quite horrible long term ramifications, taking the share into a region where 112 calculates as an eventual “bottom” level. We’d be happier if this sort of target did not make visual sense, given the shares historic dance steps.

For now, the bias above 165, along with the small fortune we’ve spent on the company’ products, gives some hope for the future. As mentioned, they are due to report some results once the Nasdaq closes on Tuesday.

As for The Grand Tour, their Mongolian episode must – in this writers opinion – rank as Clarkston & Co at their most entertaining. And we didn’t see them use WD40 once!

5/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7446 points. Change of 0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,422,780,850 a change of -8.07%

4/04/2019 FTSE Closed at 7401 points. Change of -0.23%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,898,709,129 a change of -18.49%

#Dax #SP500 We remain confused at the debate as to whether the UK should exit the Eurovision Song Contest. Political manoeuvres making the stock market difficult to read, a media similarly confused as to their stance, and a distinct problem with the FTSE at roughly 7442.915 points all conspire to make this Brexit nonsense chaotic.

The only thing we’re inclined to take seriously is our 7442 level, this important point in history delineated by BLUE on the chart below. Apparently, the FTSE faces a 300 point rise should the UK market ever stumble above such a point. It’s also worth pointing out the FTSE has experienced an 800 point rise so far this year, a 12.25 gain which is quite at odds with all the predictions of doom.

If the market makes it above 7442, we anticipate a further 300 point gain for the market.

Near term it’s a different story as there’s a risk of weakness establishing. Below 7367 looks capable of reversal to an initial 7340. If broken, our secondary calculates down at 7313 points. Neither reversal ambition presents a real worry as the RED uptrend is presently at 7143 points. But to be honest, we’d have raised eyebrows should anything permit 7313 to break as it will tend suggest weakness becoming established.

Surprisingly, if we ignore the BLUE trend line (presently 7442), the immediate calculation suggests above 7420 should generate lift to 7458 near term. If bettered, secondary is a rather more useful 7563. We have our doubts, especially as the market appears to be giving the BLUE downtrend a body swerve at present, signalling we’re not the only folk with coloured crayons!

We remain suspicious the index will continue oscillate between RED and BLUE until such time someone raised a white flag and surrenders over the Brexit issue, finally allowing direction to make itself known.