#Dax With Fireworks Night coming early for Saudi, there’s a fair chance our recent gloomy outlook for #Brent is about to be turned on its head. With the Kingdom losing 1/2 its production capacity, early news it hopes to regain 33% on what’s left still leaves a huge hole in production and it’ll be reasonable to expect oil prices to react.
At present, Brent is trading around the 60 dollar mark, needing above the immediate downtrend at 63.45 to indicate something new is happening. In such an event, we anticipate some moves to an initial 65.80 dollars. Perhaps of more interest, if such a level bettered, we’re calculating 69.15 as “secondary” though, to be honest, the price of the stuff could accelerate to 73.92 and challenge the highs of April this year.
Above 73.92 and we’ll need take a further hard look at the tea leaves!
The reason for this is slightly strange but here goes. If a price exceeds the high achieved, once an up-trend has been broken, there’s a more than reasonable chance the trend break has failed, therefore giving the price an expectation of further recovery. Or in plain English, our doom and gloom expectation risks turning into a load of bollocks. In the case of Brent, if it now were to exceed 77 dollars for any reason, a cycle toward 111 dollars is a reasonable longer term expectation.
For now, to justify concern in another direction, the price of Brent requires drip below 56.50 dollars. (if we are to trust the revised Grey uptrend since 2016)
|
Time Issued |
Market |
Price At Issue |
Short Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Long Entry |
Fast Exit |
Slow Exit |
Stop |
Prior |
|
12:01:16PM |
BRENT |
59.7 |
58.53 |
57.11 |
55.02 |
60.1 |
60.36 |
60.96 |
61.77 |
59.11 | |
|
12:04:40PM |
GOLD |
1489 |
Shambles | ||||||||
|
2:05:12PM |
FTSE |
7335 |
‘cess | ||||||||
|
2:11:45PM |
FRANCE |
5646.5 | |||||||||
|
2:14:14PM |
GERMANY |
12457 |
12400 |
12386 |
12349 |
12463 |
12497 |
12514 |
12542 |
12445 | |
|
2:16:34PM |
US500 |
3006.12 | |||||||||
|
2:18:18PM |
DOW |
27214 | |||||||||
|
2:20:16PM |
NASDAQ |
7884.39 | |||||||||
|
2:48:11PM |
JAPAN |
22054 |
Success |