Trends And Targets

#Gold #Nasdaq It’s always easy to be scathing about supermarkets, purveyors of dreadful shopping environments, early adopters of robots to replace humans (unmanned checkouts). But #Morrisons managed redeem themselves to the writer by selling something thought to be gone forever. Was it a Marathon Bar?

Since diagnosis with Coeliac Disease back in 2004, simple things like Croissants vanished from the diet. Eating habits which had previously been in full colour immediate changed to shades of grey. In the years since, ‘gluten’ has become an issue, suddenly bringing things like Nan Bread back to the table. Innocently appearing in the “Gluten Free” section of our local Morrisons, packets of 2 Croissant looked appealing and demanded their purchase.

The sheer joy of watching the FTSE open on Monday, armed with a Latte and 2 hot Croissant, prompted an effort to be generous with a review of Morrison’ share price. If they could give me something missed for 16 years, the least I can do is propose some good news for their shares.

Despite making the effort to sound encouraging, the reality is less than encouraging, a bit like Warbitons Gluten Free Bread, looking great but packed with other allergens.

The immediate situation for Morrison is dodgy, looking very like weakness now below 180p shall bring reversal to an initial 175p. If (or rather, when) broken, it should bottom and hopefully bounce at 165p. It’s the 165p level where extreme care needs taken. This will represent the share price achieving a new “lower low”, breaking the uptrend since 2015 and in the process, taking the price below the lowest part of that particular cycle.

If, on the initial surge down to 165p, the price manages below such a level, any bounce risks being short lived as the ruling expectation becomes 140p. At this level, we’d hope for a real rebound. Even visually, given the match with the low of 2015, it will make sense to anticipate a recoil if 140p makes itself known.

To escape this toxic mess, Morrison price needs exceed 197p currently, entering a zone where an initial 210 makes sense with secondary, if bettered, a very promising 228p.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:02:59PM	BRENT	54.12
10:04:53PM	GOLD	1577.07	1569	1567	1562	1579	1581	1584.5	1590	1573	‘cess
10:07:05PM	FTSE	7327.96
10:08:58PM	FRANCE	5822.2
10:11:01PM	GERMANY	13019.98									‘cess
10:14:33PM	US500	3247.22
10:17:08PM	DOW	28428									‘cess
10:22:17PM	NASDAQ	9099.37	9019	8970	8910	9073	9128	9149	9212	9064
10:24:49PM	JAPAN	22877									Success

3/02/2020 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 0.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,659,461,897 a change of -7.45%

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

#Brent #DAX At some point in a blokes life, daughter buys slippers for Xmas. She thinks it funny, he think them ridiculous but wears ’em, the result surprisingly comfortable. But a sole detaches one evening, a problem easily fixed with superglue. Fast forward to 3am, Europe and the US markets closed, Asia ended, finally it’s time for bed, the trading week has finished.

Finding the right-hand slipper is now glued to sock which is glued to skin proved utterly ridiculous, while hopping around the bedroom, trying to be discrete and avoid waking wife. A memory of an old ‘Andy Cap’ cartoon punch-line, “Never seen anyone try and take their trousers off over their head” emerges, along with a fit of the giggles. A true ‘you had to be there moment’ which thankfully lacked witnesses.

Five minutes later, wife proved quite acidic when using nail varnish remover to separate slipper, a sock, from a foot. Along with questioning why I’d felt it so important to stay up late, ‘just’ to watch the markets. To be honest, Asia wasn’t even open and I’d been watching something called “Star Trek:Picard”. Like slippers, surprisingly good.

In case no-one noticed, the world ended when the FTSE closed on Friday. If it were a share, we’d project it heading to around 6,600 eventually. Software suggests weakness now below 275 should reach an initial 7,090 with secondary, when broken, at 6,570. But really, we should now hope bottom somewhere in the 6,600 region.

In our earlier “FTSE for FRIDAY”, we’d speculated on a bottom of 7,280. The UK market closed the week at 7,279,65 points. (Or 7,286 after clearing by 5pm) But regardless, it closed at a calculated drop level.

Perhaps this means the 4 Horsemen are not galloping toward us as we rather doubt closing 0.35 of a point below our drop target  gives reason to panic. It was only 0.004% wrong, well within our bounds of competence. In fact, we rather suspect if anything is galloping toward the market, it’s a rebound.

Should this ‘odour of rodent’ prove correct, the UK market need only exceed 7,328 to enter a cycle to an 7,400 points. If bettered, secondary is up at 7,508 points where we need review the tea leaves quite urgently, due to 200 point gains calculating as possible.

Life just got interesting!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
5:37:44PM	BRENT	56.64	55.75	51.425	43.62	62.8	57.77	58.195	58.96	56.3	‘cess
5:40:18PM	GOLD	1589.75									‘cess
5:49:31PM	FTSE	7265.58									Success
5:52:43PM	FRANCE	5782									Success
10:15:30PM	GERMANY	12944	12919	12853	12689	13011	13031	13075	13139	12921	Success
10:17:51PM	US500	3229.17									Success
10:23:11PM	DOW	28284.2									Success
10:25:48PM	NASDAQ	9009.12									Success
10:29:11PM	JAPAN	22697									‘cess

 

 

31/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7286 points. Change of -1.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,115,076,170 a change of 9.99%

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

#FTSE #DAX By any standards, this has been a terrible week. Both dogs AND both cats decided to celebrate this final last week of European unity by throwing up, the dogs at least alerting us, the cats choosing the Forex Model and doing it without any warning.

Who knew both types of animal could suffer their own version of ‘Winter Vomiting Bug’?

But once we’d opted to make a group booking at the Vets, the diagnosis was straightforward, if somewhat expensive. Apparently there was something doing the rounds locally, the Vets Practice gifted unusually high levels of January income as domestic pets enacted their own post-Xmas weight loss regime.

One amusing result following ‘Vet day’ has been angry cat & cat-hating dog deciding to bury their differences, an event which has taken nearly two years.

Similarly, this week the FTSE felt like it’s had a similar complaint to the animals, one day feeling okay, the next utterly foul. We’ve a vague hope, similar to our household pets, it shall make recovery with a ‘so what was bothering you’ action.

Anytime now would be good!

The market closed Thursday in a position where it becomes relatively easy to extrapolate a reversal cycle to 6,700 points. If broken, secondary calculates at a “must bounce” bottom of 6,400 points. If we opt draw lines on charts, the current scenario allows this, the market needing above 7,460 to cancel the concept. Of course, as usual, we’ve got a ‘However’.

Brexit has never happened before, so there’s no playbook telling us what to expect. In fact, the reality of an 11 month exit period is liable to make 2020 interesting, as rumour vs reality should constantly happen while negotiations progress.

In addition, the low experienced on Thursday was a point at which we’d ordinarily hope for a rebound, so we’re going to look for miracle recovery signs for the FTSE near term. The UK Market, unlike one of the Golden Retrievers, is unlikely to try climb inside the dishwasher, a game she plays when her appetite is normal. But should the FTSE manage above a near term 7,402 points, it calculates with an initial ambition at 7,438 points.

If above this level, further computations return 7,490 as a target level. We’re not confident about such a number, due to the immediate downtrend being at 7,460 and almost certainly capable of provoking hesitation in movement.

Now we’ve spent time pretending optimism, what happens if the FTSE makes its way below 7,357 points? Initially we are looking at reversal to 7,309 points with secondary, if broken, down at 7,280 points. As always, beware a Spike Down at the market open on Friday morning as such will doubtless be an indication of a recovery day ahead!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:24:37PM	BRENT	58.12	57.8	57.285		58.4	58.37	58.615		57.34	Success
10:26:49PM	GOLD	1575.16	1572	1567.5		1578	1584	1585.5		1576	‘cess
10:29:33PM	FTSE	7425	7378	7353		7457	7456	7483.5		7400	Success
10:31:24PM	FRANCE	5911.2	5857	5841.5		5912	5912	5932.5		5860	Success
10:33:39PM	GERMANY	13274	13116	13073		13176	13282	13339.5		13183	Success
10:37:13PM	US500	3290.92	3269	3257		3278	3298	3316		3269	Success
10:42:53PM	DOW	28835.4	28555	28435.5		28714	28876	28919.25		28780	Success
10:46:27PM	NASDAQ	9220.04	9100	9071.5		9133	9234	9263		9144	Success
10:49:08PM	JAPAN	23209	22911	22816.5		23015	23241	23300		23090	Success

30/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7381 points. Change of -1.36%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,559,853,454 a change of 15.61%

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

 

#France #DOW Greatland Gold has featured in our emails this year and it’s not difficult to see why. With a break above its historical glass ceiling of 2.6p, the visuals on the #Greatland chart are (finally) encouraging and it finally feels like this 14 year member of the AIM market is becoming interesting again.

The immediate situation is fairly straightforward as we’ve two distinct arguments suggesting movement next above 3.16p should bring growth to an initial 3.53p. If bettered, our secondary ambition calculates at a more useful 4.7p. For the longer term, it seems closure above 4p shall prove critical. Despite a nod in the direction of 4.7p sounding like a good thing, we prefer a belt and braces approach.

The highest price Greatland has ever closed at was 4p with the result closure above this level should prove game changing.

For now, it’s a pretty encouraging prospect, especially as price movements do not “feel” like they are the result of internet chatroom wild optimism. Currently at 2.9p, we’d have severe concerns if the share finds an excuse to make its way below 2.3p. This would tend invalidate the current growth pressures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:36PM	BRENT	58.68									‘cess
10:06:26PM	GOLD	1577.4									‘cess
10:08:20PM	FTSE	7478.39
10:11:03PM	FRANCE	5942.2	5910	5887	5860	5943	5969	5975.5	6018	5929	Success
10:14:01PM	GERMANY	13317									‘cess
10:16:15PM	US500	3271.97									Sorry
10:23:45PM	DOW	28764.7	28694	28614.5	28509	28758	28902	28926.5	28994	28784	‘cess
10:45:23PM	NASDAQ	9101.37									‘cess
10:48:14PM	JAPAN	23250									Sorry

 

 

29/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7483 points. Change of 0.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,809,159,339 a change of -5.83%

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

 

#FTSE #Japan As England lurches toward Brexit, a nation captivated by the idea opening graphics from “Dads Army” were actually instructions for the future, we remain utterly fascinated at the possible behavior of many markets post-Brexit. #GBPEUR, trading at 1.1811, is a case in point, now starting to look potentially strong!

On December 12th, the pairing closed the session at 1.2046, marginally above a Glass Ceiling trigger level of 1.2039. In normal circumstances, we’d now be fairly relaxed, especially as it next requires movement above 1.2025 to trigger near term growth to 1.2169. This is pretty significant.

By attaining such a target, the pairing will be seen as comprehensively breaking the Glass Ceiling, entering a region where future movement to 1.263 is expected, perhaps even a long term 1.327.

Unfortunately, this is Foreign Exchange, a market with an exquisite sense of humour.

It will be perfectly possible for Forex to open for trading on Monday 3rd February and decide;’hey, that’s a surprise. The UK has left Europe!’ and promptly gap the pairing down at the start of trade.

Any movement below 1.164 is liable to prove especially nasty, taking the relationship into a region with an initial 1.125 expected. If broken, it could hopefully bottom at 1.103. The big problem in such a scenario is “bottom” eventually could calculate at 1.01 – or worse. However, we would expect a real rebound if 1.01 made its presence felt.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:06:31PM	BRENT	59.32
10:09:22PM	GOLD	1568.04									Success
10:13:32PM	FTSE	7491.87	7441	7434.5	7400	7484	7516	7543.5	7595	7438
10:16:10PM	FRANCE	5914.2									Success
10:23:44PM	GERMANY	13343									‘cess
10:26:07PM	US500	3285.72									Success
10:28:17PM	DOW	28823									‘cess
10:30:39PM	NASDAQ	9121.49									Success
10:33:33PM	JAPAN	23369	23012	22997.5	22863	23107	23396	23426.75	23486	23238	Shambles

28/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7480 points. Change of 0.92%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,106,872,635 a change of -10.29%

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

#Gold #SP500 Our previous commentary on #Barclays (link) expressed concern, should the share price be gapped below the Blue downtrend on the chart. Unfortunately, thanks to market jitters blamed on a virus from China, the Gap of Doom was inflicted at the open on the 27th, creating a GaGa scenario.

This absurdity allegedly placed Barclays under threat of reversal to 110p eventually!

Thankfully, we have doubts as this little doze of nastiness appeared almost worldwide, as markets attempt to convince traders and investors an apocalypse is coming. We’re pretty far from convinced presently, suspecting quite the opposite to be honest. London would almost be enacting a public service, attempting to convince investors to panic and thus free up some reasonably priced shares, prior to a future rise.

However, we dare not ignore Barclays being pushed below the trend, now residing in an area where weakness next below 169p looks perfectly capable of an initial 163p. If broken, secondary is a visually less comfortable 155p. This level creates a real problem, dumping the share price into a zone where a jittery market or negative news could drive Barclays down to 140p.

If we pretend some optimism, Barclays need only exceed 176p and it feels capable of triggering movement up to 182p initially. If exceeded, secondary comes in at 192p, along with the need to review the share price again.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:13:13PM	BRENT	58.22									Success
10:15:47PM	GOLD	1582.81	1576	1573.5	1569	1585	1587	1591.5	1597	1580	‘cess
10:18:33PM	FTSE	7405.88									Success
10:21:46PM	FRANCE	5856.5									Shambles
10:30:01PM	GERMANY	13203									Success
10:33:27PM	US500	3242.87	3233	3210	3184	3270	3270	3282	3298	3240	Success
10:35:52PM	DOW	28532									‘cess
10:38:47PM	NASDAQ	8950.87									‘cess
10:42:23PM	JAPAN	23052									Shambles

27/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7412 points. Change of -2.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,692,912,952 a change of 6.13%

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

#Brent #Germany Marriage is about finding new ways to casually annoy your partner. After a morning rush, markets scanned, dogs walked, showers all round, we were on the ferry to the mainland when my phone bleeped, reminding my Thursday appointment was actually in 7 days time. How she laughed, then turned her irritation into a shopping trip. For ladies boots, probably the definition of hell to witness!

Lloyds share, alas, has been displaying its very own idea of what hell is, the price breaking above its downtrend since 2009 in December only to break below the trend again at the start of this year. When we last ran the numbers against Lloyds (link), we’d proposed a scenario with weakness possible from 62p down to 58p. Unfortunately, on January 15th when it first troubled this target level, it also broke the target briefly. The means we need explore further drop possibilities if Lloyds intends drag investors around the shoe shops.

By any standards, Lloyds has gotten dodgy and weakness now below 57p suggests the possibility of travel further downhill to an initial 51p. If broken, secondary is at 48p and we’d hope for a panic bounce, if this level actually makes an appearance.

Our reasoning behind the “panic” hope comes from the lows of last year. If Lloyds actually were to break below 48p, it enters a land more painful then a shoe shop with an open plan section selling scented candles. In plain English, 33p becomes best hope but we’d really need review the tea leaves if 48p were to now break.

However (and this is a biggie) we were fascinated at the respect paid to the downtrend since 2009. It became clear, very clear, this is an important level to the market place. This being the case, something worth considering is what happens (usually) when a long term downtrend is rejoined, following a break. Invariably, a share price will rise strongly, essentially going everywhere it should have gone in the first place.

In the case of Lloyds, the implication is of movement now above 62.6p should have an ambition of an initial 68p with secondary, if bettered, at 74p. In fact, if earthshaking news is involved, the price could simply accelerate to 85p.

And the best of all?

If opening a Long position, any stop loss should be as tight as possible. This sort of movement tends be rather fast.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
6:00:12PM	BRENT	60.05	59.61	59.16	58.64	60.63	61.85	62.145	62.99	61	Shambles
6:04:30PM	GOLD	1572.39									‘cess
6:11:58PM	FTSE	7549.06									Success
6:13:47PM	FRANCE	5996									‘cess
6:26:32PM	GERMANY	13507	13474	13418	13355	13563	13607	13625.75	13661	13535	Success
6:29:27PM	US500	3291.42									Success
7:26:49PM	DOW	28954.9									‘cess
7:28:59PM	NASDAQ	9128.49									Success
7:31:40PM	JAPAN	23622									Shambles

 

24/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7585 points. Change of 1.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,364,214,029 a change of -0.13%

23/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7507 points. Change of -0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,371,375,210 a change of -4.17%

22/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7571 points. Change of -0.51%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,604,978,241 a change of 11.63%

21/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7610 points. Change of -0.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,020,947,785 a change of 18.76%

20/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7651 points. Change of -0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,227,858,188 a change of -33.49%

17/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7674 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,356,734,989 a change of 21.03%

16/01/2020 FTSE Closed at 7609 points. Change of -0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,252,079,163 a change of -22.59%