Trends And Targets

#Gold #SP500 The ballad of our unwanted* cats continues, every day bringing a new wrinkle to the tale. One of the Golden Retrievers is respectful around the cats, the other harbours a dislike and distrust. The elder dog once proved she could clear a coffee table of red wine glasses with a single swipe of her tail. Seeing a cat on the coffee table, she deliberated turned, gave a happy swipe, and launched the startled cat across the room. Many traders will have shares they probably wish could be dealt with so easily.

LSE:POG certainly must feel like a fully paid up member of the “wish I could swipe it off the table” brigade. The London based Gold Mining company, once trading above £17 has seen the value brutalised, eventually reaching a bottom of 4p in 2015. This year has seen some recovery, insignificant in the great scheme of things, and we’re interested whether the recent shareholder revolt, ousting the chairman and CEO and calling for an independent investigation of transactions over the last 3 years, shall finally allow the price to commence some recovery.

Presently trading around 32p, we shall regard moves anytime soon above 36p as hopefully triggering some slight recovery to an initial 41p with secondary, if exceeded, at 45p. Obviously, for those whose funds have been on a protracted holiday, neither ambition is particularly noteworthy but should 45p make a guest appearance, this shall take the price above the prior high this year. The effect, from our perspective, shall be a hope of some recovery fuelled by historical Big Picture price levels. (See chart inset)

 

As shown, the price has spent the last few weeks adhering to the downtrend since 2011. Movement above 45p shall suggest quite strongly a genuine trend break has occurred, permitting recovery to an initial 58p with secondary, if exceeded, at 76p. Longer term (or much sooner if positive news is involved) we can postulate 116p as a major point of interest.

All the price needs do is start going up!

*The “unwanted cats” were inherited from an ill relative.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:05PM	BRENT	45.56
10:30:28PM	GOLD	1917	1906	1902.5	1845	1935	1949	1966	2001	1921	Success
10:33:58PM	FTSE	6246									Success
10:52:22PM	FRANCE	5076									‘cess
11:00:13PM	GERMANY	13067									‘cess
11:04:09PM	US500	3372	3350	3335.5	3318	3370	3388	3396.75	3407	3363
11:06:43PM	DOW	27948									Success
11:09:16PM	NASDAQ	11132									Success
11:17:33PM	JAPAN	23191									Success

 

12/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6280 points. Change of 2.05%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,357,396 a change of 7.98%

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

#FTSE #Japan It can be funny reading analysts, sometimes frantic, attempts to find a reason for a market movement. We witnessed this frenzy on Tuesday, world index growth being attributed variously, to “bond stimulus”, “interest rates”, “Gold reversing”, even the S&P nearly painting a new high. No one actually knew the root cause, perhaps it was just because it’s summer. Perhaps it was Russia coughing politely and mentioning they’re rolling out a vaccine for Covid-19!

But the opening paragraph from an article in the Telegraph rung true, perhaps indicating a greater reality.

 

Jeremy Warner, Telegraph editor, wrote;

“In money we trust, or maybe not so much these days. A rising gold price and weakening dollar can both be seen as signals that trust in sovereign currency could be going the same was as trust in Government, institutions, and mainstream political leaders.”

 

Despite the price of Gold crashing by more than 100 dollars since his article was published, the guy maybe has a point. One which will explain the constant flux in currency movements, index movements, crypto currency etc. Essentially there’s an awful lot of uncertainty at present, doubtless ‘Covid-19 provoked’ due to hesitation over economic recovery, 2nd waves, political competence, and of course what’s going to happen as schools return.

What surprises, despite all these reasons for nerves, was our article on the Euro vs The US Dollar in September last year (link). In it, we proposed criteria for the relationship to founder to 1.0635. On March 20th this year, 6 months after our original prediction, the pairing exactly hit our drop target. Importantly, the target was not broken and thus, suggesting further weakness. Instead, the relationship hit 1.0635 and bounced.

Despite deserving a “smarty pants” award for this prediction, we’re more interested in movements since our drop target was successfully achieved as it implied the presence of strength. Now, with the pairing flirting with the downtrend (Blue) since 2008, the price need only now exceed  1.190 to suggest the potential of further recovery to an initial 1.2169 with secondary, if exceeded, a visually sensible 1.2445. To be fair, we already suspect the pair shall head to 1.2445 in the fullness of time (remember, our grasp of timeframes is dodgy).

Only with closure above 1.2445 shall we believe the Euro is headed for great things as strong recovery looks inevitable.

To cancel the prospect on the immediate cycle, the relationship needs founder below 1.10 as reversal now to 1.0418 looks very possible as a future “bottom”.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:04:06PM	BRENT	44.85									‘cess
10:07:00PM	GOLD	1911.88									Success
10:20:34PM	FTSE	6144.92	6110	6042	6023	6184	6185	6217.75	6270	6124	Success
10:23:41PM	FRANCE	4977									Shambles
10:26:00PM	GERMANY	12867									Success
10:28:34PM	US500	3342.42									Success
10:31:05PM	DOW	27755									Success
10:34:05PM	NASDAQ	10942									Shambles
10:36:30PM	JAPAN	22720	22653	22545	22408	22760	22762	22844	23062	22653	Success

11/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6154 points. Change of 1.72%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,847,593,064 a change of 33.01%

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

#Gold #SP500 Every now and then, we’re asked about a share we’ve never heard of. This lot, based in Boston, USA and a member of the FTSE 250, certainly fitted the bill, justifying a few moments research. Their “About Us” website section proved fairly assuring with the range of companies being financed being wide and potentially quite fruitful in the longer term. To be honest, their portfolio component, a company called Spin Memory introduced a rabbit hole, one of these fascinating “I didn’t know that” moments which led to several hours being wasted absorbing information which shall never be used.

However, by many standards, Allied Minds share price has experienced a pretty vile time sine the heady days of 2015 and a share price above 7 quid. Presently trading around 42p, many investors must be praying for “bottom” but suspecting logic isn’t on their side.

 

We’re pretty interested in the near term as it appears the share price need only trade above 45p to become useful, this risking triggering a slight recovery to an initial 58p. At this level, things become crucial for the longer term thanks to the confluence of two downtrends in January this year. The Green downtrend dates back to 2015, the Blue downtrend dates from 2017. In January this year, the market gapped the share price down, ensuring the price did not break free from its brutal tumble. A few months later, things changed and we’re now justifiably interested should the share price manage to close above this trend confirming moment earlier this year.

The key number looks like 55p, the share needing to actually close above this level to suggest a longer term growth cycle is commencing.

While we’re hopeful moves above 45p shall bring the price to 58p, if this motion indeed proves capable of allowing the share to close above 55p, we can calculate a secondary recovery target at 90p. Or perhaps even 147p if movement is driven by positive news flow from the company.

If trouble is planned, the price needs retreat below the Blue downtrend, presently 27p. Any nod below this level would justify extreme panic.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:30PM	BRENT	45.18
9:35:30PM	GOLD	2026.46	2019	2014.5	2003	2033	2046	2054	2067	2027
9:37:35PM	FTSE	6077									‘cess
9:50:06PM	FRANCE	4930									‘cess
9:52:05PM	GERMANY	12747									‘cess
9:54:14PM	US500	3359	3334	3324	3311	3353	3363	3371	3383	3348	‘cess
9:57:52PM	DOW	27785									Success
10:06:51PM	NASDAQ	11087									‘cess
10:08:27PM	JAPAN	22492									‘cess

 

10/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6050 points. Change of 0.3%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,644,538,945 a change of -12.52%

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

#Brent #Dax #NatWest Our weekly dip into the murky waters of the banking sector takes a closer looks at the NMX8350 Sector Index. Why? We’re starting to suspect and hope the decline of the retail banks is fairly close to a bottom, hopefully BOTTOM!

Firstly, if we review the low the last time the Banking Sector collapsed in 2009, the index achieved 1,877 points. This number is fairly interesting as the big picture points at 1,896 as a “bottom” on the cycle since the financial collapse.

Secondly, if we calculate on movements since the Covid-19 drop, the sector works out with 1,730 as a potential bottom. Despite this being lower than the 2009 drop, it still hints at some optimism for a bounce anytime soon. But of course, we obviously worry “lower low” thinking shall prove an issue as this takes the sector into a zone where 901 calculates as “ultimate” bottom for the market place. This certainly ties in with some really foul calculations against some banking sector components but we’d hope the visuals alone will merit an upward bounce anytime soon.

Currently the sector is trading around 2,010 points, needing below 1,940 to signal coming reversal to 1,896 with secondary, if broken, at 1,730. If our suspicion of a rebound being imminent proves valid, any recovery on the sector needs above 2,500 points to impress as this will imply a movement has “legs”.

NatWest share price potentials pretty neatly match the potential misery from the ruling sector above. Now below 103p now suggests the potential of 93p provoking a bounce point. If broken, our secondary “bottom” calculation works out at 79p. The funny thing about the secondary number is this price level would certainly trip all sorts of Stop Loss levels, along with triggering Sell Orders for those assuming NatWest are about to fall off a cliff.

If our calculation demanding the share price actually bounce at 79p proves correct, quite a few traders will find themselves covered in egg!

Overall for NatWest, our “ultimate bottom”, the level below which we cannot calculate, remains at 50p. For now, we suspect reversals must be pretty close to entering end game territory.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
12:30:58AM	BRENT	44.78	44.29	43.85	43.03	45	45.77	46.695	48.36	44.82	‘cess
12:33:18AM	GOLD	2035.5									Success
12:35:32AM	FTSE	6064.18									Shambles
12:37:32AM	FRANCE	4901.5									Shambles
12:40:03AM	GERMANY	12723	12513	12400	12266	12650	12723	12754.5	12835	12625
12:41:50AM	US500	3353
12:44:18AM	DOW	27448									‘cess
12:46:46AM	NASDAQ	11140
12:48:44AM	JAPAN	22458									‘cess

 

7/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,166,017,548 a change of -2.34%

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

#FTSE #GOLD Gold’s behaving like a ramped AIM stock. When we gave our (astoundingly accurate) Gold prediction on 24th June, we anticipated some hesitation around the 2055 level. We did not expect the hesitation to last for just 22 hours and only provoke a 25 dollar reversal before climbing. But that’s what happened, the precious metal again attaining another all time high on Thursday 6th August.

So what’s next, given Gold has managed to exceed our 2055 level? Is the metal about to leap upward to the 3000 dollar level as some remarkably lunatic analysts are predicting. We’re forced to be a little optimistic now as above 2070 now looks capable of a further rise to 2093 dollars. If bettered, secondary calculates at 2165 dollars but overall, we’re forced to admit 2299 dollars works out as the next major point of interest, a price level where “normal rules” again mandate some volatility should be expected.

If it all intends go wrong, the earliest warning signal looks like the yellow stuff trading below 2028 dollars as this allows reversal to an immediate 2016 with secondary, when broken, calculating at 1995 dollars. To be blunt, if this occurs, it could also tumble to 1956 with painful speed as the price attempts to mimic what happens to over-enthusiastic AIM shares.

For the present, the Big Picture is being quite serious, suggesting the 2300 level should be treated with respect. It’s a “Higher High” thing!

 

FTSE for FRIDAY Another weekend, another Grand Prix. Hopefully less boring than last weeks insipid Silverstone, a race which stored all the excitement until the final lap, when Louis Hamilton proved why he’s world champion! The climactic ending, unfortunately, did follow the script for the childrens cartoon “Cars”!

Also following a script is the UK stock market. Unfortunately, it’s possible the script is in a language no-one can read as the market is producing some incredibly illogical movements presently. The low this week of 5856 points actually did make a lot of sense but what’s occurred since is rather confusing.

Near term, if the index makes it below 5980 points, we’re calculating a visit to 5924 is expected with secondary, if broken, at 5853 points

This secondary is troublesome, slightly below Mondays dip and presenting the risk of negative news driving the UK index down to 5630 or lower. Visually, the tightest stop is at 6,080 points.

 

The other side of the coin speculates what’s possible, should the FTSE manage to claw its way above 6045 points. Apparently we can calculate an initial ambition at 6083 points with secondary, if exceeded, up at 6158 points. If triggered, the tightest stop looks like 5978 points.

 

Have a good weekend.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:46:50PM	BRENT	45.24	44.94	44.47		45.65	45.8	45.99		45.1
10:48:28PM	GOLD	2063.17	2049	2043		2061	2067	2068.5		2059
10:51:05PM	FTSE	6057.43	6008	5978		6060	6060	6079		6027	‘cess
10:54:03PM	FRANCE	4910	4858	4826.5		4898	4919	4936		4884	Success
10:55:55PM	GERMANY	12660.61	12573	12537.5		12673	12683	12750.5		12614	Shambles
10:58:24PM	US500	3350.42	3306	3298		3332	3352	3364		3316	‘cess
11:00:59PM	DOW	27371	27143	27045		27300	27403	27438.5		27270	‘cess
11:03:58PM	NASDAQ	11264	11062	10996		11162	11284	11411.5		11092	Shambles
11:06:25PM	JAPAN	22424	22280	22188.5		22410	22475	22537.5		22311	‘cess

 

6/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -1.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,266,025,733 a change of -25.48%

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

#Germany #Nasdaq At this time of year, some considerable effort is made to “lay in” a decent supply of firewood for the coming winter here in Scotland. As anyone with oil fired heating knows, it’s not the cheapest way to heat a home. Being blessed with a forest in the back garden, it seemed an easy plan to attach chain and rope to seasoned fallen trees, then use our little red tractor to pull the trunks over the cliff and down to the garden eventually.

Matters went well until the first tree dropped off the cliff, on hitting the ground it defied gravity and leapt sideways into the base of the waterfall. This gave a couple of issues, namely the tree trunk was clearly heavier than the tractor which became briefly airborne before getting partially lodged in the stream gully. And secondly, the waterfall flow rate is presently a health hazard, thanks to what TV weather described as “biblical levels of rain”. An innocent attempt to have a supply of timber, ready for friends to chainsaw and chop this weekend, created a tableau which shall be greeted with slowly shaken heads.

This was a job which should not have been tackled solo!

Of course, while sitting looking out at the abandoned tractor, sufficient reason was given to wonder how Drax shall cope next year. They plan to close their coal fired facility, instead focussing on wood fired green energy as they aim to become a “Zero Carbon” energy supplier eventually. Hopefully the company engage brain before trying to drag logs down a hill…

Drax share price, presently around 289p, only needs exceed  295p to hopefully trigger some growth to an initial 339p. If bettered, our secondary calculates at a longer term 361p but visually, closure above 339p looks like being game changing for the shares future. Such an event will tend suggest the Glass Ceiling around the 339 level has broken and we should make long term plans for 480p and beyond.

If Drax intend spoil the party, the share price needs slip below Red on the chart, currently around 240p. Such a movement threatens reversal to 208p initially with secondary, if broken, working out at 151p and hopefully a bottom.

Our suspicion is Drax share price plans some gains.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:08:31PM	BRENT	45.32									Success
10:27:18PM	GOLD	2038.24									Success
10:29:32PM	FTSE	6061
10:31:15PM	FRANCE	4914.7									‘cess
10:44:00PM	GERMANY	12615	12575	12520	12440	12642	12760	12807	12878	12646
10:49:00PM	US500	3324.27									Success
10:55:12PM	DOW	27182									Success
10:57:46PM	NASDAQ	11107	11068	11034.5	10990	11136	11168	11176	11212	11090	‘cess
10:59:23PM	JAPAN	22480									‘cess

 

5/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6104 points. Change of 1.13%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,724,834,824 a change of 13.25%

4/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6036 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,055,051,224 a change of 18.31%

3/08/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 2.29%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,272,722,908 a change of -22.49%

31/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5897 points. Change of -1.54%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,512,609,995 a change of 17.63%

30/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 5989 points. Change of -2.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,686,446,061 a change of 8.2%

29/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6131 points. Change of 0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,331,168,852 a change of 8.86%

28/07/2020 FTSE Closed at 6129 points. Change of 0.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,978,793,130 a change of -6.88%

Here’s the link http://www.trendsandtargets.com/index.php/2020/07/23/gold-and-ftse-for-friday-24-07-2020/