Trends And Targets

#FTSE #DOW It’s been nearly a year since we produced some truly depressing numbers for #Saga’ future share price. (link)  The intervening period has seen the share live down to expectations, hitting and breaking our drop target of 14p. While this number represented an “ultimate” bottom, the period since the March covid-19 drop has produced some further potentials.

 

Unfortunately, none of these potentials are particularly encouraging!

 

The immediate situation is fairly grim, suggesting ongoing weakness below 11p risks reversals to an initial 5.5p and there’s a pretty good argument to hope for some sort of bounce, should such a level make an appearance. With closure below 5.5p, our “ultimate bottom” now works out at 0.25p. Whatever rot established itself for the share price certainly can look further than the pandemic, if seeking to apportion blame as the writing was on the wall for some time before the virus struck. However, there can be little doubt Saga’s target market will doubtless be avoiding congregating with flights and cruises, due to them also being the target market for Covid-19.

Since the start of September something “funny” has been going on with Saga’s share price as it has enjoyed a pretty well managed decline. Presently, the share needs trade above 20p to give hope for a miracle recovery, calculating with the potential of moves to an initial 30p with secondary, if exceeded, a longer term 43p.

We’re not hopeful.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:07:39PM	BRENT	41.91									‘cess
10:09:46PM	GOLD	1863.98									Success
10:11:15PM	FTSE	5864.37	5832	5814.5	5761	5899	5975	5990.5	6021	5907	Success
10:14:16PM	FRANCE	4762									Success
10:27:25PM	GERMANY	12558									Success
10:31:47PM	US500	3240									Shambles
10:34:39PM	DOW	26804	26770	26698	26421	26916	27242	27316.5	27520	27123	‘cess
10:41:17PM	NASDAQ	10824									Sorry
10:43:11PM	JAPAN	23212									Success

23/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5899 points. Change of 1.2%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,741,814,629 a change of -1.55%

22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%

21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%

18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%

17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%

16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

#Nasdaq #France Despite the UK Prime Minister effectively cancelling Xmas, it became pretty evident he’s desperately hoping for a fast, efficient, and accurate method of testing for Covid-19. As a result, we thought we’d better revisit one of the companies we previously reported on in May, #Avacta. We puzzle why the UK does not already employ similar tests used in Italy, ones which feature a 15 minute delay at the airport while awaiting the test result?

 

However, internet chatrooms are alight with speculation about some near term share price optimism amongst companies involved in the testing sector, thanks in no small way to Boris’s speech to the nation on Tuesday. In the case of Avacta, we’ve slight hesitation in embracing optimism, due to the share price failing (just) to reach our previous secondary target level of 226p. A lunge at 215p was hopeful but failing to reach this target level carries the threat of inherent weakness.

Presently the share requires to trade below 150p to justify serious concern, this allowing weakness to establish toward an initial 137p with secondary, if broken, at a bottom (hopefully) of 117p.

 

However, if the man who killed Xmas has just delivered an early present to traders, we shall be inclined to optimism at any movement next above 177p as this calculates with the potential of a visit to an initial 196p. If exceeded, our secondary works out at 219p, a visually pleasing number marginally higher than achieved in May and taking the share price into a region which promises substantial longer term gains. As always, it’s “fingers crossed” time.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
11:08:17PM	BRENT	42.19									‘cess
11:10:29PM	GOLD	1901.82
11:12:29PM	FTSE	5884.6									Success
11:14:49PM	FRANCE	4809.9	4761	4744.5	4714	4799	4821	4829.25	4839	4794	‘cess
11:17:36PM	GERMANY	12685.38
11:19:59PM	US500	3308.02									‘cess
11:23:14PM	DOW	27312									‘cess
11:26:02PM	NASDAQ	11149	10919	10833.5	10708	11113	11207	11323.5	11538	11024	‘cess
11:30:41PM	JAPAN	23026

22/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5829 points. Change of 0.43%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,816,339,128 a change of -8.93%

21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%

18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%

17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%

16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

#Brent #SP500 Like many in the oil industry, GKP have not experienced a good pandemic. We fear things are about to get worse for the share price, trading around 71p at time of writing. Or, to be fair, 0.71p thanks to a 100:1 share split back in 2016 with a movement which completely failed its attempt to make the share price sound more respectable!

The immediate situation is fairly brutal with weakness below 70p calculating with the potential of reversals to an initial 60p.

 

It’s at this price level where things get quite scary, even more alarming than the criticism which (used) to be received from the gang of bullies who used to “talk up” Gulf Keystones share price in internet chat rooms. Disagreeing with their narrative would generate complaints, threats of boycotts, letters to editors, and some fantasy conspiracy theories.  Thankfully, this grouping appears to have emigrated to pastures new, hopefully learning the lesson that gravity exists, regardless of their opinions. Unfortunately, their enthusiastic support for a failing share price doubtless has trapped substantial numbers of naive investors, folk who once believed internet forums could be trusted.

 

Our concern above the 60p level comes, should the price close below this level. In such a case, we’ve two quite distinct scenario with each providing exactly the same “bottom” target for this share price. When this sort of thing happens, we tend pay quite a lot of attention as the drop target tends prove correct, ideally along with a rebound when the target is achieved.

In the case of GKP, closure below this level works out with a bottom potential at 25p, a price level which should prove useful to those awaiting the worst.

 

At present, Gulf Keystone needs exceed 81p simply to exceed the downtrend formed since the Coronavirus dip in March of this year. Such a miracle calculates with an initial recovery target at 90p with secondary, if exceeded, a visually pleasing 98p. This challenges the highs since Covid-19 hit but more importantly, also takes the price above a downtrend which dates back 4 years. Closure above 98p shall, we feel, prove game changing for GKP’s recovery prospects.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:18:48PM	BRENT	42.18	41.37	41.05	40.8	42.02	42.24	42.51	42.67	41.54	Success
10:21:26PM	GOLD	1913.05									Success
10:36:10PM	FTSE	5834
10:39:26PM	FRANCE	4827.5									Success
10:42:24PM	GERMANY	12635
10:44:46PM	US500	3280.32	3256	3227	3106	3291	3290	3306.5	3333	3255	Success
10:49:08PM	DOW	27143									Success
10:51:15PM	NASDAQ	10983									‘cess
10:54:06PM	JAPAN	22900

 

21/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5804 points. Change of -3.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,288,811,181 a change of -43.99%

18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%

17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%

16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

 

Outlook Updated Today.

 LSE:AFC AFC Energy** **LSE:AGM Applied Graphene** **LSE:BARC Barclays** **LSE:BDEV Barrett Devs** **LSE:BP. BP PLC** **LSE:CASP Caspian** **LSE:CPI Capita** **LSE:DDDD 4D Pharma** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EZJ EasyJet** **LSE:FRES Fresnillo** **LSE:GKP Gulf Keystone** **LSE:HSBA HSBC** **LSE:IAG British Airways** **LSE:IGG IG Group** **LSE:IPF International Personal Finance** **LSE:LLOY Lloyds Grp.** **LSE:NG. National Glug** **LSE:NWG Natwest** **LSE:PMG Parkmead** **LSE:PMO Premier** **LSE:RR. Rolls Royce** **LSE:STAN Standard Chartered** **LSE:TW. Taylor Wimpey** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **

#Gold #Dax As mentioned on Friday, we think the UK banking sector is almost at a logical bottom, the point where some sort of rebound can be hoped. In the case of #NatWest, this now translates to a share price drop potential around the 94p level. But only if we apply share price movements since the March Covid-19 drop. If we opt to zoom out and search for further reasons to be miserable, our secondary drop potential stinks.

The immediate situation is fairly straightforward.

 

Weakness next below 96.6 risks promoting reversal down to 94p next but unfortunately, thanks to a couple of price manipulation gaps in the last few months, this number could extend down to 90p. We’d hope for a rebound in the 90’s, if only due to the historical low of RBS share price back in 2009 when it bottomed at 9.8p during the last stock market crash. Of course, 9.8p translates as 98p thanks to the share price experiencing 10:1 consolidation. However, it’s worth remembering, if we adjust Friday closing price of 96.88p, the share is already below its prior all time low as the share is really at 9.688p.

Our calculations allow a secondary, should the 90p level break, at 70p and a price level where we’d hope for a real bounce. In fact, ideally we’d hope for a rebound to occur somewhere between the two drop levels as this will imply some residual strength in the share price. Natwest is not a happy share at present.

 

For any miracles to occur, Natwest needs trade above 101p to ideally enter a cycle to an initial 110p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 121p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
2:26:37PM	BRENT	43.46									‘cess
2:38:46PM	GOLD	1950.86	1944	1935	1922	1956	1960	1967.5	1979	1948	Success
2:41:20PM	FTSE	6003.5									‘cess
2:45:07PM	FRANCE	4970									Success
3:11:57PM	GERMANY	13158	13096	13032.5	12954	13151	13158	13183	13226	13103	Shambles
2:06:40PM	US500	3326.59									Shambles
2:10:01PM	DOW	27721									‘cess
2:14:12PM	NASDAQ	10957
2:20:10PM	JAPAN	23209

18/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6007 points. Change of -0.69%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,442,217,884 a change of 120.95%

17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%

16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

#FTSE #Nasdaq When we last reviewed the Banks Index, we provided an argument favouring 1,896 as “bottom”. It hit this level today, 17th Sept, and has rebounded a bit. Unfortunately (as always) we have a couple of concerns worth mentioning before anyone goes ‘all out’ on one of the retail banks.

On the day the Banks Index reversed and achieved our Big Picture drop target level, it also broke target quite marginally, hitting 1895.37 points before bouncing. Normally we’d tend shrug off a target level exceeded by 0.63 points as it’s minimal and probably a calibration error. Alas, there’s a sodding great HOWEVER which dare not be forgotten. Both Barclays and NatWest managed to breach pretty important numbers, each share slithering below  the crucial 100p level during Thursdays trade. While neither share closed the day below this psychological level, the message was sent of 100p no longer being sacrosanct for either bank share price, creating a situation where we shall not be surprised to witness further reversals on these two major components of the sector.

About the best we can hope is for the 94p level, curiously an identical possible bounce level for each bank, shall be honoured in the days ahead. If this share price level fails to provide a trampoline effect, it becomes pretty certain our ‘Post Covid-19 Drop’ computation of 1730 shall provide the proper bounce level for the banking sector.

Confused? You should try writing this stuff!

FTSE for FRIDAY (FTSE:UKX) On Thursday 17th, the FTSE experienced some really strange movements and closed the session at 6062 points. We shall be quite interested, if the index manages above 6085 points as this will suggest some coming recovery to an initial 6120 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculation works out at a less confident looking 6145 points. Should this scenario trigger, the tightest stop loss level looks like 6045 points, a number which appears sensible in the risk/reward stakes.

Importantly, in the event of the above coming to fruition, we shall anticipate further movement in the week ahead, ideally almost attempting the 6400 level!

 

Of course, there’s a potential flip side to the argument. We’d have concerns if the FTSE finds an excuse to wander below the 6019 level as reversal to 5983 is expected. If broken, secondary calculates at 5956 points and hopefully a bounce.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:59:34PM	BRENT	43.67	42.9	42.58		43.7	43.84	44.13		43.3	‘cess
10:01:43PM	GOLD	1944	1941	1934		1950	1949	1953		1942	Success
10:04:14PM	FTSE	6045	6019	5979		6059	6059	6068.5		6020	Shambles
10:32:15PM	FRANCE	5042.5	5015	4999.5		5048	5055	5076.5		5027	Success
10:34:38PM	GERMANY	13226	13095	13028.5		13203	13255	13287.5		13156
10:36:09PM	US500	3356.17	3319	3302		3364	3365	3377.5		3328	Success
10:38:35PM	DOW	27910.7	27674	27493.5		27844	28062	28260.5		27800	Success
10:40:42PM	NASDAQ	11078	10915	10657		11190	11196	11318.5		11018	Success
10:42:26PM	JAPAN	23322	23263	23204.5		23359	23367	23396		23268	Success

 

17/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6049 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,273,425,233 a change of -23.19%

16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

#Gold #WallSt It made sense, since his surname had been nicked, someone would use #Nikola Tesla’s forename for an electric vehicle company. In this case, the product is trucks, along with a dollop of controversy. A little issue of complaints to the US Justice Dept, along with the US SEC has ensured a fairly bumpy ride for the share price recently. In addition, gossip among internet chatrooms has been quite delicious, essentially open warfare between “true believers” and sceptics.

The company announced a partnership with General Motors and already have substantial partnerships with the likes of Bosch. The “true believer” camp points out, with a degree of sense, neither company would proceed with Nikola unless they’d conducted extensive research on the company. After all, corporate bodies never make mistakes, do they?

 

From our strictly numbers perspective, we have some doubts to the shares immediate potentials. Currently trading around 33 dollars, it appears weakness next below 30 dollars risks reversal toward an initial 23.5 dollars. If broken, hopefully the share price shall bottom and bounce eventually at the 16.3 dollar level. Of course, it’s unknown whether any bounce will prove capable of emulating Tesla, a company presently trading at 443 dollars but whose price once enjoyed languishing at the 7 dollar level. We’d certainly have grounds for concern, should events drive Nikola down below its previous low of 26.7 dollars as this effectively takes the share into uncomfortable territory, where our maximum bottom calculation is prefaced by a minus sign!

We have our doubts as to whether further reversals shall take place. Instead, we’ll be more interested should NKLA manage to trade above the 41 mark as this looks capable of triggering recovery to an initial 50 dollars with secondary, if exceeded, at a longer term (and potentially game changing) 65 dollars.

 

Perhaps worth keeping an eye on as a bunch of folk who missed The Tesla Boat are liable to jump on board this one.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:25:27PM	BRENT	42.68									Success
10:27:32PM	GOLD	1959.78	1952	1947	1938	1961	1974	1978	1988	1961	‘cess
10:40:01PM	FTSE	6081
10:41:49PM	FRANCE	5050.2									‘cess
10:44:34PM	GERMANY	13212									Shambles
10:48:18PM	US500	3390									‘cess
10:51:44PM	DOW	28066	28010	27856	27682	28235	28240	28384	28698	28050
10:53:34PM	NASDAQ	11275									Shambles
10:55:10PM	JAPAN	23445

 

16/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6078 points. Change of -0.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,563,460,983 a change of 15%

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

#SP500 #CAC40 We’ve received a few emails regarding 4d Pharma, share code DDDD and it appears those getting in touch have ample reason for their interest. A glance at their news release history obviously unearthed the inevitable mention of Covid-19 tests, along with a rather intimidating number of fields the company appear to be active. It’s an interesting one and thankfully, their share price looks poised to repay the interest.

 

Historically, 4d Pharma has experienced a pretty rough ride, the price nearly reaching the 11 quid mark before experiencing relentless reversals since 2016. There are a couple of items worthy of comment, hopefully able to prove important for the longer term.

Firstly, the Covid-19 drop in March took the share to an arithmetically perfect bottom of 24p. We cannot calculate below this level but who cares? The bounce in the period since has been pretty impressive.

Secondly, the market opted to Gap (manipulate) the share price above the Blue downtrend in April, hopefully sending a clear signal that everything has changed and an entirely new trend is commencing. If we take this Gap at face value, it was supposed to generate price recovery to 139p, something the share achieved earlier this month and now, the price has actually closed above 139p. This should prove significant as movement next above 149p looks capable of driving recovery to 181p initially. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at 235p.

Visually, there’s an expectation the 235p level shall provoke some sort of hesitation but closure above this level should prove really game changing for the longer term, the share entering a region where 651p works out as possible.

 

For the present, we’re fairly optimistic against this one, the price needing trade below 84p before justifying raising an eyebrow.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:33:25PM	BRENT	41.04									Success
9:35:36PM	GOLD	1954.83									Success
9:37:29PM	FTSE	6089.04									Success
9:39:44PM	FRANCE	5062.5	5050	5036.5	5019	5068	5093	5108.5	5134	5059	‘cess
10:09:56PM	GERMANY	13229
10:11:31PM	US500	3404	3384	3373	3359	3408	3415	3420	3432	3400	‘cess
10:13:38PM	DOW	28032									‘cess
10:15:47PM	NASDAQ	11465									‘cess
10:25:35PM	JAPAN	23447

15/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6105 points. Change of 1.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,837,644,674 a change of 35.92%

14/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6026 points. Change of -0.1%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,559,218,269 a change of 1.56%

11/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6032 points. Change of 0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,504,460,601 a change of -8.69%

10/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6003 points. Change of -0.15%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,837,937,083 a change of -13.67%

9/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 6012 points. Change of 1.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,445,872,932 a change of -0.63%

8/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5930 points. Change of -0.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,474,047,176 a change of 45.17%

7/09/2020 FTSE Closed at 5937 points. Change of 2.38%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 3,081,866,920 a change of -35.14%