Author: T&T Staff

#Gold #WallSt With all this Brexit hullabaloo, we’ve a sneaking suspicion the markets anticipate the major supermarkets to do rather well in the event of any supplies crisis. After all, in times of shortage or disruptions, retailers price goods against “worst possible” scenario. Almost accidentally, they will generally do rather well out of a major issue as the need for “Special Offers” or price comparison vanishes.

Already, Sainsbury are poised at the starting gate for some reasonable share price movement.

Essentially, there looks like a trigger level of 225p which, if exceeded, allows price growth to an initial 238p. Better still, if exceeded, this allows ongoing travel toward a secondary calculation of 284p. Beyond 284p, we shall need re-examine the tea leaves (if we can afford them) as some quite extraordinary longer term movement becomes possible.

Of course, there’s a fly on the soufflé.

Regular readers will be aware of out historical hysteria over Gap Up / Gap Down movements on shares. On many occasions, they proved incredibly reliable indicators for serious trouble ahead and in the case of Sainsbury, it produced a couple of textbook warning gaps. We’ve circled them on the chart.

Unless Sainsbury actually makes an effort to close above 225p anytime soon, it’s trading in a region where below 192p risks reversal down to an initial 167p. Worse, if broken, our longer term secondary (and hopefully bottom) calculates down at 138p. We can go lower as ultimate bottom, the point we cannot calculate below, is at 100p. At present, nothing threatens such a calamity

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:51:24PM	BRENT	61.65									‘cess
9:53:13PM	GOLD	1503.86	1501	1497.5	1485	1508	1508	1509.5	1512.74	1502	Success
9:55:25PM	FTSE	7306.38									‘cess
10:00:14PM	FRANCE	5595.2									Success
10:02:19PM	GERMANY	12264									‘cess
10:04:50PM	US500	2984.97									‘cess
10:33:35PM	DOW	26984	26734	26618	26481	26915	27028	27078.5	27205	26884
10:37:02PM	NASDAQ	7805									Success
10:42:53PM	JAPAN	22030

25/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7289 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,597,482,306 a change of -12.72%

#FTSE #Japan Falling faster than Boris Johnston’s credibility, Metro Bank could not be ignored. A Bond Sale, coming in the same year they announce an ‘accounting issue’, failed to attract sufficient buyers and the initiative was cancelled. Their already spectacularly bad share price suffered – spectacularly!

Usually with this sort of thing, when a price experiences a massive 36% reversal, we look hard to try an identify a logical bounce point. After all, it’s often quite possible to snag a 15% rebound, even if any bounce is deemed as to be of the “dead cat” variety. Instead, Metro presents us with quite a major issue, due to its proximity to the “dead parrot” side of trading. The companies share price movements, since their fanfare listing in 2016, proved to be utterly dreadful. At time of writing, it’s trading around the 175p level with the potential of weakness below this level driving the price further down to 103p.

At 103p, we would hope for a bounce, potentially a fairly useful one but the danger comes if 103p is broken on any initial downward surge. Our secondary is at 76p and this is a level we cannot calculate below. Obviously, we can but all the answers are prefaced with minus signs.

Before any bounce from current could be taken seriously, the share almost needs double in value as only above 315p dare we start to suspect the reversal has been a dreadful mistake and things are going to be okay for the future. When we review how the price was managed on the 24th Sept, even above 222p is supposed to bring 238p which, if bettered, gives a very slight hope bottom is already in. This being the case, our secondary calculates at an unlikely 338p.

We suspect this shall be worth watching, if it approaches the 76p level.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:17:56PM	BRENT	61.6
10:21:59PM	GOLD	1532.08									Shambles
10:46:41PM	FTSE	7254.43	7243	7231	7183	7293	7304	7316.5	7341	7256	‘cess
10:50:22PM	FRANCE	5601.7									‘cess
10:53:04PM	GERMANY	12254									‘cess
10:56:05PM	US500	2969.57									‘cess
11:00:41PM	DOW	26840.7									Shambles
11:03:19PM	NASDAQ	7719.62									Success
11:05:06PM	JAPAN	21850	21806	21764	21636	21966	22009	22085.5	22178	21862	Success

 

24/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7291 points. Change of -0.48%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,267,350,098 a change of -41.38%

#Gold #SP500 In the current market place, there are few shares presenting any real picture of optimism but for some reason, despite the word “sports” in the name, Sports Direct appear on the edge of becoming useful. The trigger level isn’t even that far away!

Above 285p exceeds the very obvious Blue downtrend since 2015 and appears very capable of launching the share in the direction of 307p next. Visually there’s plenty of reason to anticipate some sort of hesitation at the 307p, if only due to the share prices historic behaviour around this level. But in the event it actually closes a session above 307p, we’re able to calculate the potential of 342p making a future appearance. In fact, if driven by positive news flow, it could quickly surge to 423p in the future.

All it needs do is start going up!

For any indication it’s all starting to go wrong, the share price presently requires slip below 265p as reversal to an initial 240p seems possible. If broken, secondary calculates down at 203p and hopefully a bottom is feels capable of rebounding from. Given the companies immediate efforts to purchase “Goals Soccer” outright very soon, it will be interesting how the market reacts to any acquisition.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:11:06PM	BRENT	63.7
10:12:47PM	GOLD	1522.92	1516	1511.5	1506	1525	1527	1532	1540	1516	‘cess
10:15:33PM	FTSE	7354									Shambles
10:22:43PM	FRANCE	5639									‘cess
10:29:50PM	GERMANY	12387									Success
10:31:33PM	US500	3000.07	2980	2970	2953	2998	3004	3007	3016	2990
10:34:45PM	DOW	27022.7									Shambles
10:36:37PM	NASDAQ	7852.37
10:39:12PM	JAPAN	21949									‘cess

 

23/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of -0.25%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,986,324,808 a change of -29.08%

20/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7344 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,670,572,411 a change of 125.4%

19/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7356 points. Change of 0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,621,323,285 a change of 3.9%

18/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7314 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,410,113,434 a change of -11.15%

17/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7320 points. Change of -0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,089,337,683 a change of 3.99%

16/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7321 points. Change of -0.62%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,855,486,633 a change of 3.71%

13/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7367 points. Change of 0.31%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,645,792,852 a change of -3.82%

#BRENT #DAX Our July report (link) explained the chances of Glencore hitting 228p. It did but something funny happened. The price did not actually break 228p on the first surge downward. By normal rules, this is a good thing, suggesting we should not be terribly worried at the share pivoting above and below the 228 level in the weeks since.

We’ve been keeping a slightly mad eye on some of the major shares, looking for early warning signals the market is about to be trashed by the effect of Brexit. While the retail banks all appear to be wandering around ringing sad bells to keep the unwary clear, there are pretty mixed signals amongst many other shares. Some of the major miners (Fresnillo for instance) adopted a stance of utter defeat some time ago, others like Glencore are sending slightly different signals. Equally, amongst Oil shares, the situation is far from clear and overall we’re forced to conclude no-one has a clue what effect Brexit shall bring.

In-house, we suspect a dip before the actual Brexit day (whenever that is) followed by strong market recovery with the first piece of positive news. Our basis for this is fairly straightforward – sometimes things need a good shakeup.

As for Glencore, since hitting our 228p, the price has moved in a fairly predictable fashion with the result it need now only trade above 263p to become useful. Exceeding a trigger such as this should enter a cycle to an initial 270p with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 304p. Visually, we’d be quite enthusiastic to witness 304p against this as further confident growth looks extremely possible.

That’s the end of the good news. We’re basing a lot of optimism on 228p not breaking on the first downward surge. (It actually hit 227.95p but we’d inclined to believe this a callibration error)

Now below 218p and travel downhill to an initial 204p looks possible. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom – hopefully – of 132p.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
1:55:44PM	BRENT	63.92	62.82	60.86	57.64	64.6	64.87	65.53	66.56	63.3
1:57:57PM	GOLD	1517									‘cess
2:45:35PM	FTSE	7324									‘cess
2:48:12PM	FRANCE	5663.7									Success
2:52:36PM	GERMANY	12469	12392	12346.5	12292	12483	12492	12519	12592	12415	‘cess
2:56:15PM	US500	2987.42									‘cess
3:01:32PM	DOW	26908									‘cess
3:12:11PM	NASDAQ	7810.74									‘cess
3:24:30PM	JAPAN	21967

20/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7344 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,670,572,411 a change of 125.4%

#Nasdaq #France The big question; was Boris creeping around Saudi oilfields last weekend with a box of matches? A Monday without a Boris/Brexit panic was almost enjoyable as the heat was taken off the UK’s much admired leader for a couple of hours. It didn’t last, and oddly neither has the Saudi panic. Without doubt, BJ has provided more entertainment in a few weeks than Theresa May did during her entire tenure.

The Crude Oil price explosion hasn’t really happened. There was an absurd spike up to the 70’s when the Futures markets opened last Sunday night but as sanity prevailed in the light of day, nothing has happened (so far) to either justify nor sustain the upward surge. In fact, quite the opposite may prove true. At present, it’s trading around the 64 dollar mark and need only drip below 62.6 to give concern. A move such as this looks capable of triggering weakness to 60.39 initially. Worse, if our secondary calculates at 57.6 dollars and returns the price to the level it’s being languishing through July & August. This will also challenge the uptrend for 2019!

For any near term bounce of Brent to become interesting, allegedly above 64.50 should bring an initial 66.10 dollars. In itself, a pretty tame and useless movement but one we’d use to measure strength of sentiment. In the event 66.1 is exceeded, we’d expect a surge to 69 dollars next which will suggest some strength. Realistically, it needs above the previous high of 70.6 dollars before we’d dare feel we’re witnessed anything other than the panic reaction by a jittery market.

FTSE for FRIDAY The last 4 days managed to lack any real excitement. In fact, this week opened at 7367 points and closed Thursday at 7356 points, an 11 point difference. It’s not even worth pointing to what occurred in between as the 80 point range has been wholly artificial, created when the FTSE was marked down at the open on 2 days. The immediate situation tends mirror reality as movement now above 7373 should bring a surge to an utterly amazing 7384 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7411 points.  The tightest stop in such a scenario is at 7336 points.

It can be assumed we’re not terribly impressed with the immediate potentials. To get real, the UK index needs above 7444 points as a further 100 point ride is expected.

In the event of weakness below 7336, we’re look at reversal to an initial 7325 points. If broken, secondary calculates as a more useful 7292 points. Should the UK manage below such a level, it could easily fall sharply to 7228 before any form of real bounce is expected.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:12:07PM	BRENT	64.02									‘cess
10:13:54PM	GOLD	1499.49									‘cess
10:19:56PM	FTSE	7322.25									‘cess
10:22:26PM	FRANCE	5647.7	5641	5631.175	5610.7	5654	5667	5675	5685	5636	Success
10:24:45PM	GERMANY	12425.68									‘cess
10:31:51PM	US500	3005.17									‘cess
10:34:58PM	DOW	27079									‘cess
10:38:28PM	NASDAQ	7896.37	7828	7808.5	7761	7917	7934	7959	8016	7856	‘cess
10:46:47PM	JAPAN	22094									Success

 

19/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7356 points. Change of 0.57%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,621,323,285 a change of 3.9%

#DAX #JAPAN We’ve managed almost a year, since last covering Tesco. In December, we’d suggested it critical for the price to exceed 200p as it was teetering on the edge of an abyss. Somehow or other, the share started 2019 above this crucial level, doing okay in the period since. Just okay, not particularly brilliant.

At present it’s trading around the 235p level and once again, we’ll start with the dangers. Below 210p and reversal to an initial 193p looks probable. This will break the uptrend since 2016 and open the doors for a dangerous secondary at 182p. It’s dangerous, because it will represent a “lower low” below the trend with 150p presenting itself as a possible bottom for some time in the future.

For now, absolutely nothing justifies this gloomy outlook!

Instead, we’re able to calculate a trigger level at 244p. Closure above this point shall make upward travel to an initial 257p quite difficult to avoid. Better still, if exceeded our secondary calculates at 301p and a potential challenge against the long term downtrend which started 12 years ago!

Similar to many shares, Tesco is effectively marching on the spot at present, the market doubtless awaiting to see if Brexit comes with fangs or opportunities. In-house, our inclination is to watch for warning signs. As a result, we’ve circled a dip below RED at the end of December last year. This innocent little movement ‘proved’ the uptrend was not sacred and could be broken. Normally, this alone would make us suspect any excuse for negative market conditions will ensure a future break will suffer very sharp, very fast, reversals.

Unlike the experience of shopping in their stores, at present Tesco almost looks promising.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:55:48PM	BRENT	63.12
9:57:42PM	GOLD	1493.71									Success
9:59:54PM	FTSE	7317.2
10:01:56PM	FRANCE	5633.8									‘cess
10:03:44PM	GERMANY	12418.11	12352	12326	12289	12419	12437	12443.5	12491	12352
10:05:33PM	US500	3006.77									Success
10:09:25PM	DOW	27158									‘cess
10:13:03PM	NASDAQ	7899.12									Success
10:14:59PM	JAPAN	22077	21909	21866.5	21792	22030	22090	22105.5	22171	21941

18/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7314 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,410,113,434 a change of -11.15%

#FTSE #SP500 Our previous report on Sirius lacked enthusiasm. Sometimes, share price moves leave a bad taste and Sirius was starting to remind of a poisonous AIM share called Vialogy. That nasty little company started to exhibit all the symptoms of a board who were happy to treat investors as their own little piggy bank. By issuing additional shares for in-house options, the number of shares became diluted and of course, staff members at Vialogy would simply dump their awarded options and pocket the proceeds. The share no longer trades.

Obviously, Sirius as a respected member of the FTSE250 will surely be monitored more closely than Vialogy, so perhaps our cynical attitude is completely unfair. Unfortunately, as a respected member of the “250”, we fear they shall opt for the next page of the playbook. This will involve a share split, potentially at 10:1 ratio and allow the price to once again look respectable as it multiplies by 10. Alas, folk who purchased in 2018 at 40p while they absorbed all the positive sentiment in chatrooms will be doomed to await Sirius growing to 4 quid in the future, just to get their money back.

Offhand, we cannot think of a single instance where this has actually happened…

Alas, Sirius price movements, despite some very strong sentiment amongst internet discussion forums, has been “feeling” similar to Vialogy, hence our lukewarm approach to its future. Yesterday, 17th September, the market enacted a painful “gotcha”, one which doubtless ensures many loyal investors (who’ve been living for the next positive press release) now are trapped with their funds going on a prolonged holiday in the absence of miracles.

Our “ultimate bottom”, the point at which we can no longer calculate below is at 1.18p.

To arrest the rate of decline, the share price presently requires better Blue on the chart, 12p at time of writing. Unfortunately, it seems more likely we shall see weakness below 3.67 drive the price to 3.33p next, a point where some sort of bounce can be hoped. Secondary, if broken, is at 1.18p. The share price requires exceed 5.74p before there’s an initial glimmer of hope a bounce is serious as 6.5p becomes the initial target. Above this point and we’d need stir the tea leaves again as there’s a chance any bounce is liable to be fairly useful.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:26:30PM	BRENT	63.58									‘cess
9:28:38PM	GOLD	1501.49									Shambles
9:31:26PM	FTSE	7316.25	7290	7262	7217	7350	7352	7364	7388	7301	‘cess
9:46:19PM	FRANCE	5617									Shambles
9:53:08PM	GERMANY	12382									‘cess
9:59:16PM	US500	3005.67	2990	2985	2978	3001	3006	3009.5	3016	2994	‘cess
10:14:46PM	DOW	27115
10:16:41PM	NASDAQ	7894.37									‘cess
10:19:53PM	JAPAN	22037									‘cess

17/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7320 points. Change of -0.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,089,337,683 a change of 3.99%