Glencore for 23/09/2019

#BRENT #DAX Our July report (link) explained the chances of Glencore hitting 228p. It did but something funny happened. The price did not actually break 228p on the first surge downward. By normal rules, this is a good thing, suggesting we should not be terribly worried at the share pivoting above and below the 228 level in the weeks since.

We’ve been keeping a slightly mad eye on some of the major shares, looking for early warning signals the market is about to be trashed by the effect of Brexit. While the retail banks all appear to be wandering around ringing sad bells to keep the unwary clear, there are pretty mixed signals amongst many other shares. Some of the major miners (Fresnillo for instance) adopted a stance of utter defeat some time ago, others like Glencore are sending slightly different signals. Equally, amongst Oil shares, the situation is far from clear and overall we’re forced to conclude no-one has a clue what effect Brexit shall bring.

In-house, we suspect a dip before the actual Brexit day (whenever that is) followed by strong market recovery with the first piece of positive news. Our basis for this is fairly straightforward – sometimes things need a good shakeup.

As for Glencore, since hitting our 228p, the price has moved in a fairly predictable fashion with the result it need now only trade above 263p to become useful. Exceeding a trigger such as this should enter a cycle to an initial 270p with secondary, if bettered, a longer term 304p. Visually, we’d be quite enthusiastic to witness 304p against this as further confident growth looks extremely possible.

That’s the end of the good news. We’re basing a lot of optimism on 228p not breaking on the first downward surge. (It actually hit 227.95p but we’d inclined to believe this a callibration error)

Now below 218p and travel downhill to an initial 204p looks possible. If broken, secondary calculates at a bottom – hopefully – of 132p.

FUTURES

Time Issued

Market

Price At Issue

Short Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Long Entry

Fast Exit

Slow Exit

Stop

Prior

1:55:44PM

BRENT

63.92

62.82

60.86

57.64

64.6

64.87

65.53

66.56

63.3

1:57:57PM

GOLD

1517

               

‘cess

2:45:35PM

FTSE

7324

               

‘cess

2:48:12PM

FRANCE

5663.7

               

Success

2:52:36PM

GERMANY

12469

12392

12346.5

12292

12483

12492

12519

12592

12415

‘cess

2:56:15PM

US500

2987.42

               

‘cess

3:01:32PM

DOW

26908

               

‘cess

3:12:11PM

NASDAQ

7810.74

               

‘cess

3:24:30PM

JAPAN

21967

               

20/09/2019 FTSE Closed at 7344 points. Change of -0.16%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 12,670,572,411 a change of 125.4%

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