Author: T&T Staff

Free 1st Move Friday! Thursday appears to have produced a fairly important milestone in the Brexit saga, an episode of UK history which deserves its own theme tune. Perhaps a smart producer will hijack the “Jaws” tune and introduce real drama. The milestone? For me, it was the day I completely lost any understanding of what’s going on politically. In doing so, it’s possible I joined an entire parliament full of politicians in the land of clueless!

On Thursday, the FTSE should have reached 7333 and no higher. We’d a fairly big rule demanding some hesitation at the 7333 level but the market decided it had better ideas. It peaked at 7338 before a very slight fallback. In doing so, it introduced an argument which favours movement now above 7339 as being capable of 7358 next. If exceeded, our secondary calculation comes in at a less likely 7394 points.

To be honest, if anyone figures out what the politicians are up to and decides it’s good news, the index could easily accelerate to 7474 points, a point where once again we’d expect some serious hesitation.

Assuming the market nudges beyond 7339 points, the index would need slip below 7292 points to give the first indication it’s all going wrong. This makes for a reasonable stop loss level, given the potential collection of points.

If the index does slip below 7292, this risks triggering weakness down to an initial 7252 points. If broken, secondary calculates at a trend testing 7195 points.

This week, every single session has been prefixed with market movements suggesting the next day “almost must” move in a specific direction. As a result, the following day generally enacts the precise opposite of anything demanded by logic. It all leads to Friday, a day which clearly suggests another UP day is in store for the FTSE. Therefore, we shall not be surprised to witness relaxation to 7195 commence. Idiots appear to have taken over the asylum – or Westminster.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:42:41PM	BRENT	61.32	60.4	60.21			61.5	61.825			‘cess
10:44:26PM	GOLD	1504.62	1487	1485.5			1505	1509			Success
10:58:17PM	FTSE	7321	7252	7216.5			7339	7353.75			Success
11:00:22PM	FRANCE	5689.7	5649	5640			5394	5701.5			‘cess
11:02:13PM	GERMANY	12858	12801	12766.5			12915	13007.25			Success
11:04:08PM	US500	3005.42	2999	2996.5			3016	3024			‘cess
11:05:58PM	DOW	26817.9	26710	26654			26880	26926			Shambles
11:07:29PM	NASDAQ	7924.12	7905	7882.5			7977	7986			‘cess
11:09:15PM	JAPAN	22794	22713	22680.5			22860	22915.25

 

24/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of 0.94%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,617,068,603 a change of -3.47%

23/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7260 points. Change of 0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,818,863,244 a change of 3.71%

22/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7212 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,610,839,707 a change of -3.73%

21/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7163 points. Change of 0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,828,185,910 a change of -4.14%

18/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7150 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,079,930,950 a change of -11.12%

17/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7182 points. Change of 0.21%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,362,941 a change of -0.43%

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

#France #Nasdaq Our review against this mob (link) a year ago proved pretty accurate, if somewhat painful for shareholders. Thankfully, the current situation is giving slight hope for the future. For visual reasons, the market has poured a glass floor against the price at the 19p level and the current bounce appears interesting.

Continued recovery above 29p calculates with an initial ambition of 33p. If exceeded, ideally with the share closing above 33p, our secondary comes along at a longer term 39p. Achieving 39p will be interesting as visually, yet another glass ceiling awaits, one almost certain able to slow down any rise. Despite being able to calculate beyond the 39p level, we have considerable doubts due to a new all time high appearing possible. Perhaps the company shall discover a goose involved in the production of golden eggs?

If there’s going to be trouble, the price would need dig below 19p as travel down to an initial 13.5p looks painfully possible. If broken, our secondary calculates at a “bottom” of 1.9p. This “bottom” is simply the level below which we cannot calculate.

For now, we’re fairly optimistic for this mobs future as it’s looking like an attempt at 33p is on the cards. In technical terms, it’s “fingers crossed” time.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:54:51PM	BRENT	60.85									Success
9:56:49PM	GOLD	1492.03									Success
9:59:38PM	FTSE	7261.63									‘cess
10:01:58PM	FRANCE	5657.2	5618	5587.5	5538	5654	5662	5673.5	5694	5630
10:04:24PM	GERMANY	12823.4									‘cess
10:06:16PM	US500	3006.77									Shambles
10:12:32PM	DOW	26844.3									Success
10:14:42PM	NASDAQ	7910	7800	7751.5	7675	7863	7910	7938	7984	7854	‘cess
10:16:36PM	JAPAN	22791

 

 

23/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7260 points. Change of 0.67%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,818,863,244 a change of 3.71%

22/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7212 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,610,839,707 a change of -3.73%

21/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7163 points. Change of 0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,828,185,910 a change of -4.14%

18/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7150 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,079,930,950 a change of -11.12%

17/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7182 points. Change of 0.21%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,362,941 a change of -0.43%

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

15/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7211 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,505,649,682 a change of 32.93%

#FTSE #DOW One of the advantages of living in the sticks is a complete lack of exposure to this sort of company. Here in Argyll, fast food involves a phone call, a trip & stop at a cash machine, a natter with customers & staff at the takeaway. And of course, stopping for chocolate on the way home as a 1 hour journey completes. It’s what we call a social life, resulting in a situation with no clear understanding of the raison d’être for such a company.

Aside, of course, their habit of sponsoring TV shows, thankfully giving families throughout the UK the point at which to fast forward through adverts then press play to return to the show. While perhaps not the desired outcome of such exposure, Just Eat now can make suffering an hour of the X Factor slim down to a less strenuous 35 minutes.

Their share price has surged fairly impressively and now resides in a situation where movement continuing above 747 should prove capable of a lift to 777p next. Visually, there appears ample reason for some hesitation at such a level. In the event the share finds an excuse to close above 777, we’re able to calculate secondary at 865p. Importantly, if positive news is involved, it could easily fast forward up to 991p very quickly.

To convince us it’s all going wrong, the price would require break below RED, presently at 570p, to enter a rewind back to 464p initially. If broken, secondary is at 341p and hopefully a bottom.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:48:51PM	BRENT	59.43									Success
9:51:00PM	GOLD	1488.21
9:53:01PM	FTSE	7192.16	7140	7101	7058	7210	7222	7233.5	7268	7180	‘cess
9:55:20PM	FRANCE	5627.2									‘cess
9:57:19PM	GERMANY	12685.55									Shambles
10:00:15PM	US500	2990.82									Success
10:01:49PM	DOW	26779									‘cess
10:03:54PM	NASDAQ	7834.62	7827	7804	7745	7904	7935	7958	7977	7874	‘cess
10:05:29PM	JAPAN	22659									‘cess

 

22/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7212 points. Change of 0.68%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,610,839,707 a change of -3.73%

21/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7163 points. Change of 0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,828,185,910 a change of -4.14%

18/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7150 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,079,930,950 a change of -11.12%

17/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7182 points. Change of 0.21%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,362,941 a change of -0.43%

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

15/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7211 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,505,649,682 a change of 32.93%

14/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,646,210,010 a change of -31.78%

#GOLD #SP500 When we reviewed Brent last month in an utter panic, due to “the Saudi thing”, we’d glued on our usual caveat, saying ‘to justify concern in another direction, the price of Brent requires drip below 56.50 dollars’. Guess what? In the period since, Brent managed to hit 56.1 dollars, filling the first requirement to open the taps of doom.

Increasingly with the markets we’re opting to play things a little safer, introducing something we call movement weights. This nonsense, long used in-house, essentially provides the first calculation which will signal whether a drop (or gain) is real. In the case of Brent, the situation now is of weakness below 56.1 being capable of provoking reversal down to an initial 53.78 dollars. In itself, a fairly insignificant movement but, should 53.78 dollars break, we’d take this as a triggering motion which should provide real reversal.

Thus, now below 53.78 looks capable of entering a cycle down to an initial 48 dollars. Secondary, if broken, calculates at 46 and firmly takes the black stuff into a region where it’s entirely possible 40 dollars should provide an eventual bounce level.

When we apply similar logic to demand confirmation movement in the other direction is viable, the stuff now needs exceed 63.8 to confirm any trend break is genuine. Recovery such as this should trigger moves to an initial 67.5 with secondary, if bettered, at 70.5 dollars. This sort of thing takes the price into a region where a longer term 77 looks possible – something very liable to be game changing from a big picture perspective. We’ve pencilled 90 dollars as an eventual target!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:31:02PM	BRENT	58.87									‘cess
10:42:07PM	GOLD	1485.12	1481	1477.5	1471	1491	1496	1500.5	1507	1483	Sorry
10:43:59PM	FTSE	7169.42
10:45:54PM	FRANCE	5651.7
10:48:04PM	GERMANY	12759.7									‘cess
10:50:52PM	US500	3007.82	2989	2984	2976	3001	3008	3011	3015	2994
10:52:55PM	DOW	26844.4
10:55:33PM	NASDAQ	7943
10:58:44PM	JAPAN	22693									Success

 

21/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7163 points. Change of 0.18%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,828,185,910 a change of -4.14%

18/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7150 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,079,930,950 a change of -11.12%

17/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7182 points. Change of 0.21%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,362,941 a change of -0.43%

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

15/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7211 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,505,649,682 a change of 32.93%

14/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,646,210,010 a change of -31.78%

11/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7247 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,276,859,342 a change of 51.67%

 

Brent DAX #GBPEUR feels like it should be a report at Easter! This currency pairing, for so long looking trapped in a dark cave, is actually starting to develop some recovery potentials. Perhaps Boris is doing a Mr Trump, ridiculed by media but regardless, appearing to do something right!

A key level has developed at 1.1688. This isn’t one of our usual “higher high” things but instead, a calculated level above which it ‘should’ make travel toward 1.2039 difficult to avoid. In the event of the market actually closing above this target level, a longer term 1.2869 computes as possible.

It’s worth taking a step back and viewing the chart. Historically, since 2016 this pairing has experienced issues at the 1.20 level. For this reason, we’re suggesting only closure above 1.2039 is liable to introduce the next big step in the pairings future. But it’s also worth considering if the present Brexit hiatus continues, it’s very probable the relationship will continue in a trading range between roughly 1.10 and 1.20.

For things to start going wrong, we would raise an eyebrow if the pairing now weakens below 1.140 as this threatens reversal down to an initial 1.1215. If broken, our secondary calculates at 1.0920. Visually, this shall indicate a very firm return to being trapped in its “same old, same old” trading range.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
6:46:29PM	BRENT	59.12	58.48	58.125	57.5	59.58	60	60.395	61.21	59.25
7:02:25PM	GOLD	1490.4									‘cess
7:23:18PM	FTSE	7147.02									‘cess
7:24:46PM	FRANCE	5640.2									‘cess
7:57:53PM	GERMANY	12670	12597	12520.5	12422	12694	12724	12754.5	12807	12594
7:59:32PM	US500	2990.42									‘cess
8:01:24PM	DOW	26803.7									Success
9:09:58PM	NASDAQ	7872.99									Success
9:11:47PM	JAPAN	22496

 

18/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7150 points. Change of -0.45%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,079,930,950 a change of -11.12%

#FreeFutures Despite the FTSE index only being up 0.2%, it has been an extraordinary week for the market with surprising numbers of shares nudging above their growth triggers. Very few have reached their initial targets. Perhaps suggesting caution until news of a Brexit deal actually turns out to be real! Until then, just watch “The Good Place” on telly…

Even then, there risks being trouble on the horizon.

In a world already aflame with protest against cack-handed government, Hong Kong protests invade our nightly news, protests on Spain continued unabashed (unless including the bashing from the police), and of course, French protests have become so commonplace, the media ignores them. In the wings, the UK faces a problem with Scotland if the current agreement goes ahead. Apparently it disadvantages the entire country, already agitating for independence and voted nearly 2/3 against leaving the EU. While unrest from Scotland feels unthinkable, nearly 4% of the population marched on Edinburgh in foul conditions a few days ago in favour of independence. This massive turnout was not widely covered by UK media, aside from an interesting analysis on the BBC suggesting if more than 3.5% of a counties populace take to the streets, their revolution will succeed.

Long story short, even if Westminster successfully achieves some sort of Brexit agreement, it becomes highly unlikely we’ve seen the end of this messy story as far as the UK is concerned.

For Friday, the FTSE is in a fairly interesting position. It closed Thursday at 7182 and needs exceed Thursday high of 7238 before we dare believe the FTSE is celebrating in earnest, showing the potential of some real recovery. Near term, above 7242 indicates coming growth to an initial 7257 points. If exceeded, secondary is a more useful 7294 points and a level where some hesitation is expected. However, if the market opts to “go for it”,  we can mention a third level target at 7349 and this calculates as a point where some volatility is expected. Interesting to note, it also intersects with the downtrend since July.

As always, we’ve an “however” and alternate scenario. The lowest the market has achieved in October has been 7004 points, this being a concern. We had calculated a “bottom and bounce level” at 7034 points and the index squirmed below. Thankfully, for those chasing a bounce, we’d also proposed a stop loss around 6,990 points and the index has certainly provided payback.

But our 7034 did break, hinting at a risk of real weakness if sufficient excuse discovered.

Now, below 7141 calculates as entering a cycle down to an initial 7083 points. If broken, secondary calculates at 7024. This again shall take the FTSE into the land of lower lows where an ill timed Tweet or political quote could rapidly provoke reversal to 6750 points.

For now, we shall not be surprised to witness 7349 before everything unravels again.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:01:40PM	BRENT	59.67	58.25	57.87		59.3	59.77	60.14		59.12
10:04:46PM	GOLD	1492.5	1487	1484.125		1495	1498	1501		1489	‘cess
10:06:19PM	FTSE	7185.43	7161	7139		7195	7239	7255		7162	‘cess
10:11:55PM	FRANCE	5677.2	5656	5627.5		5710	5737	5746.25		5674	‘cess
10:32:09PM	GERMANY	12661.28	12592	12522.5		12726	12812	12867		12619	Success
10:34:02PM	US500	2999.32	2985	2980.5		3003	3009	3012.5		2990
10:37:04PM	DOW	27040	26914	26867.5		27077	27126	27191.5		27001	‘cess
10:39:54PM	NASDAQ	7944.37	7912	7886.5		7952	7957	7988		7930	‘cess
10:42:33PM	JAPAN	22524	22421	22315		22612	22690	22765.5		22200	‘cess

17/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7182 points. Change of 0.21%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,840,362,941 a change of -0.43%

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

15/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7211 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,505,649,682 a change of 32.93%

14/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,646,210,010 a change of -31.78%

11/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7247 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,276,859,342 a change of 51.67%

10/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7186 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,457,100,667 a change of 4.75%

9/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7166 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,209,605,060 a change of -0.79%

#US500 #DOW Triggers are always interesting. Currently, Twitter has a constant battle about something called Transgender with the word “him” becoming a ‘trigger’ point for what is often quite nasty (aka entertaining) debate. Sensing a trough, politicians are even involved. Sooner or later, some innocent pastor is going to open the gates of hell on a Sunday, when asking his audience to rise for a singalong. Someone will complain; “It’s not a ‘HIM’, it’s a Psalm which now self identifies as Samantha…”

We had our own little “trigger” incident today with the UK Oil & Gas Sector, the NMX0530!

Last time we covered it in August (link), we’d warned the dangers if 8214 points broke. In the couple of months since, the index has assiduously avoided the trigger level, almost teasing us with the care taken to ensure 8214 points didn’t actually break. To us, it tends confirm we’ve been working against the correct trend and calculating properly. Unfortunately, for the index, it tends mean if we were correct about 8214, we’ll invariably be correct about the reversal potentials.

The reason for our concern about this sector is fairly obvious. Oil & Gas shares are fairly major drivers for the main index and also, through the AIM, attractive to many private investors. As a result, we’d suggest keeping a weather eye on the NMX0530 before decided any oil share is actually cheap. The immediate situation is straightforward as weakness now below 8195 looks like entering a cycle down to 7998 points next. Visually, there is ample reason to expect some sort of rebound at such a level but if it breaks on the initial surge downhill, our secondary calculates at 7746 points.

From a really big picture perspective, if our secondary fails to promote a reasonable rebound, the index risks losing a further 1500 points as it could trend down to a bottom (hopefully) at 6230 points.

To escape this potential Black Hole, the index requires above 8570 points as this calculates with the potential of recovery to 8854 points. This “risks” being game changing, thanks to our secondary above 8854 coming in at 9403 points and safety (apparently) for the future.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:52:26PM	BRENT	59.01									‘cess
9:54:44PM	GOLD	1489.86									‘cess
10:03:48PM	FTSE	7167.95									‘cess
10:05:26PM	FRANCE	5691.2
10:07:45PM	GERMANY	12676
10:10:37PM	US500	2992.72	2980	2972	2964	2997	3004	3013	3039	2984
10:13:51PM	DOW	26974
10:38:29PM	NASDAQ	7942.62	7896	7877	7849	7931	7942	7965	7988	7904
10:40:33PM	JAPAN	22519

 

16/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7167 points. Change of -0.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,869,588,006 a change of -8.47%

15/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7211 points. Change of -0.03%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,505,649,682 a change of 32.93%

14/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7213 points. Change of -0.47%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,646,210,010 a change of -31.78%

11/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7247 points. Change of 0.85%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,276,859,342 a change of 51.67%

10/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7186 points. Change of 0.28%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,457,100,667 a change of 4.75%

9/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7166 points. Change of 0.32%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,209,605,060 a change of -0.79%

8/10/2019 FTSE Closed at 7143 points. Change of -0.75%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,250,871,756 a change of -5.63%