#Brent #Dax As it’s December and sometimes, share prices can do silly things, we’re choosing a different oddball every day to hopefully illustrate a near term trade possibility. When we open the Advent Calendar, Rockfire Res. are behind the 2nd door and thankfully, it indeed has some potentials showing.
Rockfire closed last week at 1.35 and visually, now needs above just 1.6p to make further growth likely. Such a scenario calculates with an initial target at 2.12p, an ambition which makes sense from a charty perspective. As can be seen quite clearly, the share has experienced a Glass Ceiling just above the 2p level since August 2016.
This time, if the usual nonsense of “the 3rd break is
the keeper” proves correct, above 2.12p computes with 2.9p but to be honest, if
positive news is involved (or indeed positive sentiment in internet chatrooms)
the share price could easily accelerate to a silly sounding 3.88p, several
magnitudes above the current share price. Unfortunately, there is plenty of room
for the market to play games, thanks to the price requiring drill below 0.5p to
utterly stuff the growth potentials.
If we were to identify a price level which should give
early warning of looming trouble, it appears below 0.89 should justify some real
concerns.
#FTSE #GOLD As the US rendered homage to turkeys while the UK PM paid homage to a chicken, markets experienced a pretty muted day. However, the Dow Jones remains optimistic and closed before Thanksgiving in useful territory for the near future. Hopefully the rally potentials continue.
For the DOW, now above 28,175 calculates with the
potential of an initial 28,315 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculation
comes out with 28,430 points. But realistically, this need not be the end of the
story thanks to 29,125 points now lazing around in the clouds and claiming it’s
a longer term attraction.
All kidding aside, in the event 29,125 ever makes an
appearance, there’s a pretty good argument favouring a short position as we’d
not be shocked to witness a 1,000 point tumble, once sufficient excuse had been
invented to panic the markets. While we’re being cynical, somehow or other this
sort of thing actually does happen.
As for the FTSE for FRIDAY, despite the index
experiencing a lacklustre Thursday (we suspect, due to the US being closed), the
FTSE certainly looks capable of some continued growth. We’ve a couple of small
alarm bells ringing thanks to the market showing considerable hesitation
exceeding 7,450 points but at present, the near term numbers come out as;
Movement above 7,420 calculates with an initial useless ambition of 7,436
points. If exceeded, our secondary is at 7,466.
This scenario shall better the 7,450 level and create a
new high (since August) on a Friday, generally not the most suitable day for
exuberant behaviour.
If trouble is planned, reversal below 7,385 looks
capable of an initial 7,350 points. If broken on any initial surge downward, our
longer term secondary is at 7,323 points and hopefully a rebound.
Have a good weekend. It’s the final F1 of the season,
probably a boring race as everything is already decided!
#DAX #FTSE We’re starting to wonder whether the slight, very slight, optimism present against the retail banks may be due to expectations against next months election result in the UK. If this is indeed the case, Royal Bank of Scotland PLC are carefully sticking their tartan bonnet above the parapet at present.
The immediate situation is pretty straightforward as moves above 232p look
capable of achieving a near term 240p. In itself, a pretty useless movement but
greater interest is aroused, if the price somehow betters 240p. A movement like
this will be a solid nod in the right direction, calculating with a secondary
target of 250p.
In a ‘back to school’ moment, achieving 250p shall prove important taking the
price above the last point the downtrend (Blue from 2009) was defined and thus,
officially creating a Higher High. Stumbling into such territory risks truly
stirring the pot, from a Big Picture perspective. In fact, we’d strongly suggest
shelving celebrations until the share actually closes around the 250p point. A
miracle like this will tend promise 282p and beyond for the longer term.
Of course, there’s a reasonable chance this optimism could be dashed, if
politicians (or voters) do something exquisitely stupid. In the case of RBS,
anything capable of driving the price below 210p is liable to have dire
consequences, transporting the price back into a region where 174p is yet again
calculating as a probable drop location. Secondary, if broken, remains at 150p.
BITCOIN (COIN:BTCUSD) Before working on Bitcoin, we’ve some really nerdy FTSE stuff worth reviewing. It appears, finally, calamity may be upon the FTSE. On Sept 27th, the index closed at 7,426 points. On November 7th, the index closed the day at 7,406 points with a day high of 7,431. Today, 26th November, it closed at 7,403 points and the day high was 7,421 points. This series of lower closing prices has created a painfully obvious trend.
We shall examine it in more detail later this week but
for now, until the FTSE trades beyond 7,431 points, some caution with short
positions is recommended. This pattern of behaviour can often suggest things
shall go wrong, very quickly.
As for Bitcoin, when we last reviewed it (link),
a fairly miserable outlook Big Picture for its future was given, one it
successfully lived down to. Unfortunately, in the period since, the outlook has
continued to weaken and our “secondary” target of 7,220 broken, quite
conclusively. This has created a rather unpleasant situation, one where weakness
now below 6,500 suggests travel down to 5,923 next. Some considerable hope
exists for a bounce at such a level as the implications, if broken, are of
reversal to a further 3,233.
This target computation essentially matches the lows at
the start of 2019, signalling once again Bitcoins rise has failed. We do have
some slight hope for a rebound around the 5,000 dollar mark, simply thanks to
some prior twitches at such a level, along with the psychological self
fulfilment concept of “it will bounce at the 5k mark”. Frankly, we’re not
confident.
As the chart shows, Bitcoin needs recover above Red,
simply to regain the prior uptrend. Presently, this level is around the 8,000
dollar mark and feels like a difficult ambition, given the strength of the wider
stock markets.
Who knows, maybe 2020 will be the year when Bitcoin can
be seen clearly.
It needs to be said, will next year be “The Year of The
Optician” in China? Can we have fines for eyesight jokes next year?
#Gold #Nasdaq This lot are a little confusing, rebranding themselves from Cydesdale & Yorkshire Bank to Virgin Money. In the process of doing so, their history has been slightly mangled and charts becoming meaningless. However, we’ve been doing some digging and notice some potentials showing.
At present, Virgin are trading around 144p with the
result, above 148p should now prove capable of triggering slight recovery toward
an initial 152p. This price level is liable to prove critical for the longer
term as closure above 151p launches the share into a region where growth to an
initial 161p looks extremely possible.
If exceeded, secondary is at 171p though, to be honest,
in the event of positive news & market conditions, the share price could easily
surge to 194p.
A word of warning, something surprisingly obvious from
the immediate chart. If the market intends “park” the price until the UK’s
trauma with the holy trinity of the 3 B’s (Brexit, Boris, or Bollocks***) is
resolved, it only needs close the share price below 140p. Below 140p and it
seems there’s a fair chance of reversal again to 133p. If broken, it should
hopefully bottom at 127p.
***The story of UK Traffic Police detaining a driver due to him having 2 of the three B words emblazoned on his car proved quite telling, also offering the added bonus of a driver dialling 999 in panic, due to harassment from Traffic cops! It seems there was a court case over a Sex Pistols record and the word Bollocks defined as legally acceptable.
#Brent #Dax Optimism, a strange word to use, when discussing the UK Retail Bank sector. Rather than use the term “suspend disbelief’, we rather prefer the slightly more arcane term ‘cognitive estrangement’ when asking for acceptance of the looming scenario for Lloyds.
It should probably be pointed out, when a writer
employs terminology no-one is quite familiar with, it’s usually because they
don’t actually believe the argument about to be presented. Most of the UK
doubtless watched, with ‘cognitive estrangement’ the appalling performance of
our countries prospective leaders during the 2 hour Question Time on Friday. It
took a while for the penny to drop, it was Light Entertainment, just lacking Ant
‘n’ Dec presenting due to their prior engagements anywhere else.
Lloyds Bank has two distinct calculations telling us
the price is about to wander up to 63.3p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates
at a longer term (or later that day!) 68p. The trigger for such a wonderful
movement is supposes to be trades anytime now above 60.7p. It’s very possible
the 63.3p ambition shall prove viable, especially due to the presence of the
downtrend since 2009.
As for our 68p calculation, this enters the land of
politicians, lies, and broken promises. As the chart shows, achieving 68p shall
break the downtrend of the last 10 years. Such a movement also achieves a
“higher high” than the previous time the share price touched the trend,
theoretically allowing a longer term 85p to enter the picture.
We have our doubts, certainly until December 13th at
the very earliest.
If Lloyds intends trouble, now below 55p allows for an
initial believable 52p. If broken, secondary is at 48p and should prove capable
of a rebound, given the presence of the prior low.
#Nasdaq #DOW Our weekly review of the #FTSE continues to generate surprising visitor sources. Argentina is now our 3rd most popular feed for reasons which remain unknown, providing more visitors than France, Spain, India, or Canada. The UK & US remain dominant at the top of our Friday listings.
Whether it’s US vs China, the UK’s woes, or whatever,
markets are not doing particularly well at present with early signs of the DOW
coming “off the boil”. We’re quite far from pressing any sort of panic button
but should the US primary index manage below 27,600, it shall be regarded as
entering a cycle down to 27,250 points and hopefully some sort of rebound. If
broken, our secondary calculates at 26,950, a point where it almost must bounce.
The US market requires exceed 27,900 to escape this immediate prophecy of doom.
Any reason for the US to find itself below 26,950 will prove pretty alarming,
thanks to the risk of a further 1,000 point freefall!
The FTSE, closing Thursday at 7,231, risks some
immediate trouble if it wanders below 7,180 points. Such a trigger risks
kickstarting a mantra threatening a visit to 7,164 points initially. If broken,
secondary is at 7,083 points and hopefully some sort of real bounce.
To get out of trouble, the UK market requires better
7,294 points as this should prove capable of 7,320 points. If bettered,
secondary is at 7,356 along with a strong chance of some hesitation. As always,
we’ve a major however…
On Tuesday, the UK market did something we really
dislike. Between 10:45 and 2:30pm on the 19th, the market painted a very slow,
very deliberate, downtrend. It was almost like some “grown up” had decided ‘This
is the new trend and any rise cannot be taken seriously unless the index betters
this downtrend!’ As a result, we’re pretty far from confident about any long
position scenario.***
At present, this unpleasant stain is at 7,311 points.
If past experience proves reliable, the market shall now struggle to exceed this
strange Blue line until such point a material change in circumstances emerge. As
a result, we strongly suspect the current reversal cycle intends 7,083
points. We’ve shown the start of this deliberate trend on a chart inset, to try
and explain why the main chart has a Blue downtrend simply hanging in the air.
This sort of contrived trend generally highlights, quite firmly, a coming period
of reversals.
***This movement was on the FTSE. Curiously, FTSE
Futures did not display quite as vivid price movements and suggest Futures only
require exceed 7265 presently to better this strange trend. We’re inclined to
pay more attention to the FTSE itself as it was “real”.
