Author: T&T Staff

#Brent #Dax Optimism, a strange word to use, when discussing the UK Retail Bank sector. Rather than use the term “suspend disbelief’, we rather prefer the slightly more arcane term ‘cognitive estrangement’ when asking for acceptance of the looming scenario for Lloyds.

It should probably be pointed out, when a writer employs terminology no-one is quite familiar with, it’s usually because they don’t actually believe the argument about to be presented. Most of the UK doubtless watched, with ‘cognitive estrangement’ the appalling performance of our countries prospective leaders during the 2 hour Question Time on Friday. It took a while for the penny to drop, it was Light Entertainment, just lacking Ant ‘n’ Dec presenting due to their prior engagements anywhere else.

Lloyds Bank has two distinct calculations telling us the price is about to wander up to 63.3p. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a longer term (or later that day!) 68p. The trigger for such a wonderful movement is supposes to be trades anytime now above 60.7p. It’s very possible the 63.3p ambition shall prove viable, especially due to the presence of the downtrend since 2009.

As for our 68p calculation, this enters the land of politicians, lies, and broken promises. As the chart shows, achieving 68p shall break the downtrend of the last 10 years. Such a movement also achieves a “higher high” than the previous time the share price touched the trend, theoretically allowing a longer term 85p to enter the picture.

We have our doubts, certainly until December 13th at the very earliest.

If Lloyds intends trouble, now below 55p allows for an initial believable 52p. If broken, secondary is at 48p and should prove capable of a rebound, given the presence of the prior low.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:58:35PM	BRENT	62.81	57.9	52.765	45.38	63	63.8	65.96	69.11	59.15	‘cess
10:01:10PM	GOLD	1462.49
10:03:43PM	FTSE	7344.83									Success
10:08:07PM	FRANCE	5896									Success
2:33:53PM	GERMANY	13200	13034	12951	12808	13182	13247	13355	13795	12788	Success
2:35:40PM	US500	8276.12									Shambles
2:45:37PM	DOW	27886
3:00:51PM	NASDAQ	8276									Shambles
3:02:28PM	JAPAN	23167

 

22/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7326 points. Change of 1.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,192,412,665 a change of -5.45%

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

#Nasdaq #DOW Our weekly review of the #FTSE continues to generate surprising visitor sources. Argentina is now our 3rd most popular feed for reasons which remain unknown, providing more visitors than France, Spain, India, or Canada. The UK & US remain dominant at the top of our Friday listings.

Whether it’s US vs China, the UK’s woes, or whatever, markets are not doing particularly well at present with early signs of the DOW coming “off the boil”. We’re quite far from pressing any sort of panic button but should the US primary index manage below 27,600, it shall be regarded as entering a cycle down to 27,250 points and hopefully some sort of rebound. If broken, our secondary calculates at 26,950, a point where it almost must bounce. The US market requires exceed 27,900 to escape this immediate prophecy of doom. Any reason for the US to find itself below 26,950 will prove pretty alarming, thanks to the risk of a further 1,000 point freefall!

The FTSE, closing Thursday at 7,231, risks some immediate trouble if it wanders below 7,180 points. Such a trigger risks kickstarting a mantra threatening a visit to 7,164 points initially. If broken, secondary is at 7,083 points and hopefully some sort of real bounce.

To get out of trouble, the UK market requires better 7,294 points as this should prove capable of 7,320 points. If bettered, secondary is at 7,356 along with a strong chance of some hesitation. As always, we’ve a major however…

On Tuesday, the UK market did something we really dislike. Between 10:45 and 2:30pm on the 19th, the market painted a very slow, very deliberate, downtrend. It was almost like some “grown up” had decided ‘This is the new trend and any rise cannot be taken seriously unless the index betters this downtrend!’ As a result, we’re pretty far from confident about any long position scenario.***

At present, this unpleasant stain is at 7,311 points. If past experience proves reliable, the market shall now struggle to exceed this strange Blue line until such point a material change in circumstances emerge. As a result, we  strongly suspect the current reversal cycle intends 7,083 points. We’ve shown the start of this deliberate trend on a chart inset, to try and explain why the main chart has a Blue downtrend simply hanging in the air. This sort of contrived trend generally highlights, quite firmly, a coming period of reversals.

***This movement was on the FTSE. Curiously, FTSE Futures did not display quite as vivid price movements and suggest Futures only require exceed 7265 presently to better this strange trend. We’re inclined to pay more attention to the FTSE itself as it was “real”.

Have a good weekend.

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:54:36PM	BRENT	62.89	61.22	61.07			63.26	63.43			‘cess
10:59:27PM	GOLD	1465	1462	1460			1474	1476.5			‘cess
11:04:05PM	FTSE	7249.78	7194	7155			7255	7266
11:09:39PM	FRANCE	5891	5833	5824.5			5897	5903.5			‘cess
11:12:09PM	GERMANY	13169.37	13079	13012			13180	13193.5			‘cess
11:14:39PM	US500	3104.42	3093	3087			3115	3118			Sorry
11:21:36PM	DOW	27777	27670	27626			27902	27971.5
11:27:11PM	NASDAQ	8274.5	8240	8221.5			8300	8316.5
11:30:03PM	JAPAN	23071	22717	22529			23155	23285.5			Success

 

 

21/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7238 points. Change of -0.33%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,491,994,018 a change of -12.81%

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

#DOW #CAC40 Once a month we review the retail banks, once a month we report sod all is really happening (link). It’s like trying to find something new to write about Brexit, a subject already flogged to death but like all good masochists, we shall try once again to make sense of Barclays and the future.

The immediate problem we face with this has been a lack of proper recovery. Our last review speculated on movement from 154 to 161 to 177p and the best the share achieved was just below 174p where it fizzled like a cheap firework. While we can now report movement above 174p should bring a confident looking 179p, the longer term secondary calculation of 187 looks considerably less likely. In fact, it becomes easy to calculate a distant 204 as viable, if any of this scenario comes to fruition.

Of course, there’s an additional problem. The ruling downtrend (Blue) is presently at 177.173p and the market has carefully respected this line since July 2015. This level of homage tends make is suspect the share price shall remain trapped until such time the UK’s future appears settled, a subject of considerable doubt at present.

If the markets intention is to keep Barclays “trapped” until a route to the future appears, we shall not be aghast if weakness now below 164 forces reversal to 159 with secondary, when broken, at 154 and hopefully a rebound.

For Barclays to get into serious trouble, the share price now needs break below Red, presently at 136p. Such a calamity looks capable of driving 126p, a short term bounce, then a further trip down to 110p and hopefully a real bounce.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:39:54PM	BRENT	61.84									‘cess
10:27:57PM	GOLD	1472.19									‘cess
10:30:03PM	FTSE	7250.68									Success
10:32:25PM	FRANCE	5877.2	5857	5848.5	5823	5914	5914	5925.5	5948	5870	‘cess
10:34:16PM	GERMANY	13116.27									‘cess
10:41:48PM	US500	3101.62									Success
10:43:49PM	DOW	27753	27667	27610	27488	27902	27905	28000	28109	27795	Success
10:45:33PM	NASDAQ	8264.37									Success
10:47:27PM	JAPAN	23145									‘cess

 

20/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7262 points. Change of -0.83%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,298,819,044 a change of 17.12%

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

 

#Gold #US500 Sometimes our attention is drawn to an oddball and ITM, manufacturers of hydrogen energy solutions, certainly fits the bill. Their recent opening of fuel pumps at Shell Gatwick was truly impressive, generating hydrogen ‘on site’ from water with no need for gas deliveries. We suspect quite firmly the novelty for complex electric vehicles shall diminish as a hydrogen infrastructure increases in the UK.

To be honest, a personal bias exists here, having created a homemade hydrogen generator. Thankfully, reality entered the equation before doing something really stupid. It became quickly apparent feeding the gas into an old motorcycle engine very quickly (and very loudly) destroyed the machine! Fortunately, the garage doors were open and ensured the area was well vented or it’s possible this article would need be written from somewhere in orbit.

ITM have certainly been doing well in the last few sessions and now, above 80p risks some hesitation at 81.75p. Only with closure above the 80p level will we be happier as continued growth to a longer term 101p looks probable.

To drop out the immediate growth cycle, ITM share price needs below 46p at present, something visually unlikely. Surprisingly, one detail worth mentioning with closure ABOVE 80p is the big picture potential of a visit to 131p and beyond.

This share is one perhaps worth researching and keeping an eye on, while trying to forget exactly which gas was used in a certain German airship.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:31:57PM	BRENT	60.19									‘cess
10:35:15PM	GOLD	1473.04	1464.5	1460.5	1456	1473	1475.5	1477.625	1482	1468
10:36:47PM	FTSE	7324.29									Success
10:38:30PM	FRANCE	5906.7									Shambles
10:40:09PM	GERMANY	13193.97									Success
10:43:12PM	US500	3117.27	3113	3107.5	3099	3126	3133	3139	3145	3113	Shambles
11:12:42PM	DOW	27886									‘cess
11:14:02PM	NASDAQ	8315.75									Shambles
11:16:21PM	JAPAN	23186									‘cess

 

19/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7323 points. Change of 0.22%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,378,033,826 a change of -0.49%

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

#Nasdaq Our last glance at #GOLD in June (link) proved a stonking success as we mapped a movement from 1357 up to 1537, weird with the numbers just changing order! Importantly, our initial target was bettered for a session or two, resulting a situation where future optimism is possible and almost assured.

Unsurprisingly, despite the metal bettering our 1537 ambition, it was a pretty major target level, one at which we’d expected some hesitation and the market is currently obliging. The immediate situation is fairly straightforward with Gold prices seen as suffering, due to the strength of index’. We’ve a suspicion this shall prove a load of tosh at some point soon, once the price of Gold exhausts reversal pressures. Apparently, if Gold now trades below 1454 dollars, it should experience reversal to an initial 1429 with secondary, if broken, calculating at a bottom of 1376.

We hope for a serious bounce, if 1376 makes an appearance. Ideally, in fact, any bounce should occur somewhere around the 1400 dollar mark, “proving” strength in the price and once again entering a cycle which should again challenge the 1537 level.

If 1537 is bettered, despite hesitation appearing visually probable at the 1550 level, it should enter a growth cycle to 1603 initially with secondary, if bettered, calculating at 1674 dollars. Due to the 1674 once again being a major ambition, some hesitation appears very probable around such a level.

To summarise, we suspect the current reversal cycle on Gold should bottom around the 1400 dollar mark. If opening a “blind long” at such a level, stop needs be just below 1376 dollars. For our future thoughts to prove correct, any bounce from 1400 exceeding 1537 is liable to prove quite profitable, until 1674 makes an appearance.

The reason we’re being a little hysterical about the 1376 level is simple. Below such a point introduces the potential of 1208 making itself known as “bottom”.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:52:12PM	BRENT	61.71
9:56:38PM	GOLD	1471	1456	1429	1399	1475	1474	1475.5	1482	1462	‘cess
9:58:28PM	FTSE	7312.41
10:00:46PM	FRANCE	5930.5									‘cess
10:03:28PM	GERMANY	13211									‘cess
10:05:29PM	US500	3122.62									Shambles
10:07:35PM	DOW	28047
10:09:13PM	NASDAQ	8330.87	8272	8243	8205	8341	8357	8376	8411	8278	Success
10:11:13PM	JAPAN	23397

 

18/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7307 points. Change of 0.07%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,404,777,192 a change of 7.28%

15/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7302 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,038,024,383 a change of -3.76%

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

#DOW #DAX While used to diverse visitors worldwide to our #FTSE Friday missive, last week saw a strange surge of visitors from Argentina, sufficient to nudge Reunion Island to the bottom of the international Top 20 sources. The surprise; Argentina has never featured previously but suddenly we’d 15 unique readers in Buenos Aires. Suspect we’d featured in a chatroom!

Optimism for the future of the FTSE is gradually subsiding as the market threatens a dodgy moment, one which gives us an excuse to explain some basic rules we apply to price movements. The chart below is used to highlight something we attach importance to, what happens when a downtrend is exceeded?

Against this particular share, the price bettered 57.34 and immediately surged upward. We’ve circled the movement, one which even shows a little jiggle at the point of trend break, showing the market appeared attach some importance to it. This sort of thing is generally a “safe” signal something useful is about to happen. In this particular instance, it had an initial target of 59.5p, achieved and slightly bettered.

In theory, this gives hope for the future but we’ve circled the trend break of 57.34 to highlight something else. If a share (or index) manages below the point of trend break, following an initial surge, the implication for any immediate growth is really not great. Instead, there’s a strong probability a price is about to mess around, usually between the high achieved following the trend break and the low achieved before the trend break. We’ve absolutely no idea why this should happen but in the case of this particular share, it suggests anything now below 57.34 will doubtless witness the share price oscillate between 55.5 and 59.5 for a while. Obviously, a useful trading range and only when this range is either exceeded or broken dare we believe a new trend is forming.

With the looming general election, we suspect quite a few shares shall be placed in a parking zone until it becomes clear the UK knows what isn’t going to happen next…

The reason we explained the foregoing is twofold. Firstly, ‘cos we’ve nothing interesting to write about the FTSE and secondly, ‘cos the FTSE is in danger of doing exactly the thing we’re warning about. If the market closes below 7280 points, it shall exhibit a very real risk of becoming rangebound for a while until the UK political shambles is resolved. This will mean the market being trapped in the 7140 to 7400 zone for a while.

Near term, the suggestion is of weakness now below 7288 bringing reversal down to an initial 7266 points. If broken, our secondary calculation comes in at a less likely (near term) 7216 points.

There is a surprising, alternate potential for Friday. In the event the index makes it above 7331 points, some recovery to an initial 7359 is possible. If bettered, secondary calculates at 7383 points.

We suspect reversal but on the bright side, despite Brazil not appearing on our list of countries visiting our website, Sao Paulo hosts this weekends Formula 1 race.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:47:04PM	BRENT	61.95	61.71	61.46			62.78	63.32			‘cess
9:48:41PM	GOLD	1471.37	1463	1458.5			1475	1477			‘cess
9:51:23PM	FTSE	7312.39	7282	7255			7343	7354
9:53:57PM	FRANCE	5910.7	5889	5882			5917	5925			Shambles
9:57:04PM	GERMANY	13211.07	13157	13109			13273	13292
10:13:57PM	US500	3098.52	3082	3076			3099	3103
10:29:04PM	DOW	27788	27669	27625.5			27840	27874
10:31:00PM	NASDAQ	8263.5	8226	8206			8266	8279.5			Shambles
10:32:45PM	JAPAN	23152	23004	22940			23199	23248.5			‘cess

 

14/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7292 points. Change of -0.8%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,234,690,954 a change of -2.01%

13/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7351 points. Change of -0.19%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,342,219,099 a change of -6.91%

12/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7365 points. Change of 0.5%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,738,598,465 a change of -2.15%

11/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7328 points. Change of -0.42%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 5,864,681,253 a change of 22.23%

8/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7359 points. Change of -0.63%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,798,106,379 a change of -22.57%

7/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7406 points. Change of 0.14%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,196,615,818 a change of 30.74%

6/11/2019 FTSE Closed at 7396 points. Change of 0.11%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 4,739,678,595 a change of -23.11%