Author: T&T Staff

#Gold #SP500 #FTSE A few financial journos have been suggesting the stock markets close during this time of crisis. Needless to say, there’s an opposing viewpoint but the funny thing is, they’re both probably correct. During the last crash, we’d naively written for trading in banking shares to be suspended until such time the markets stabilised in the years ahead. This enlightened attitude may have been something to do with 1/4 million shares in RBS and watching life savings going on a prolonged holiday!

The “funny” thing, when RBS hit 9.8p in March 2009, rather a few folk pounced, doubtless believing the 10p level was certain to provide a reasonable bounce. This supposition proved correct. Until now! With RBS hitting 125p on the 18th March (let’s be honest, it’s really 12.5p) we’re not entirely confident of a bounce appearing. We remain trapped in the bank, thankfully our overall shareholding now reduced to less eye-watering, loss-making, levels.

As for the stock market, the day to close the markets was 6th March. On that day, the FTSE closed below the uptrend since 2009, achieving a lower low. To us, this was a bad thing.

But crucially, the closure could not be justified unless one was pretty confident in what was coming next, the good old “time machine” scenario. Needless to say, we had a report published on the 6th (link), one which has proven rather concise in the 2 weeks since. Unfortunately, despite being proven correct in our reversal scenario, we’re uncomfortable with any “shut the markets” philosophy unless it’s introduced with precise criteria to justify re-opening. In addition, a policy of market closures would need equal safeguards for sudden, unprecedented, rise in the markets.

For instance, what if a cure for Covid-19 were announced, something cheap which could simply be added to drinking water. Or preferably whisky!

The next day, the markets would move faster than someone with a dodgy immune system, hearing a distant cough…

As for the FTSE near term, some very slight hope feels possible, the FTSE ‘only’ needing to exceed 5181 to enter a cycle to an initially 5245 points with secondary, if exceeded, calculating at 5323 points.  We’re less than confident with this scenario, thanks to the minute by minute chart below. As shown, since 6th March, the UK index has adhered to a fairly firm pace of reversal below Blue. Only with a fairly solid chunk of movement above this trend will we dare raise an eyebrow.

Should the more recent pattern of misery repeat, now below 5006 points looks very capable of reversal to 4863 with secondary, when broken, at 4780 points.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:34:58PM	BRENT	27.42									Success
9:36:57PM	GOLD	1486.73	1472	1452.5	1419	1504	1522	1554	1589	1504
9:39:39PM	FTSE	5079
9:42:38PM	FRANCE	3765.8									‘cess
9:45:27PM	GERMANY	8449									‘cess
9:56:14PM	US500	2391	2271	2221.5	2059	2420	2460	2478	2547	2361	Success
10:07:35PM	DOW	20079									Success
10:09:45PM	NASDAQ	7150									Success
10:12:13PM	JAPAN	16513

18/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5080 points. Change of -4.04%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,714,451,101 a change of 6.42%

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

 

#France #Nasdaq Concealing a fart with a cough! The converse has become a social necessity, giving a brilliant mental image of a packed elevator providing a gastric symphony, office workers trying to disguise even the slightest cough, returning to the office from a smoking break…

Self-isolation, Day Two, proved remarkably laid back. As someone who utterly detests frivolous medication, a suggestion of Lemsip, along with a dollop of Honey, to tackle my common cold was tried. Surprisingly, it dried the dripping part of the cold, eased the sore throat, and perhaps eased the cough. But more importantly, the popular cold remedy knocked me for a six. Aside from monitoring the markets opening in the morning, normal mental activity did not resume until lunchtime.

 

So, did the UK Chancellor just fart in an elevator?

For most watching, his speech at first appeared enthralling, finally, Westminster starting to taking things seriously. As he expanded, the level of commitment left this viewer wondering just how bad things are going to get. It’s one thing making a solid attempt to “protect the markets” but what if the country emerges with a workforce without jobs, multiple businesses opting to take the safe route and just close down. Will the UK Govt find themselves taking utilities/airlines back into public ownership, simply by issuing loans in exchange for equity?

 

Firstly, something glaringly obvious we keep forgetting to point out. In these volatile times, the FTSE continues to experience some sort of spike at the open. Usually (but NOT always), a spike will provoke a day traveling in the opposite direction. Our rule of thumb, if the height (or depth) of a spike is exceeded within the first hour, expect the worst. Thus, if the market is spiked UP at the open yet the value drops below the opening value of trade, expect a drop. Conversely, if a market is spiked DOWN at the open, the opposite will generally prove true. And like all rules, it will sometimes be broken without warning.

From the point at which the FTSE closed Tuesday, very little is required to provoke some upward travel on Wednesday. Moves now above 5300 should prove capable of an initial 5349 points. If exceeded, life gets interesting as secondary calculates at 5511 points, along with the hope the market has not perceived the chancellor as farting in an elevator.

The UK index needs below 4977 to give some real concern for the near term, calculating with an initial risk of reversal to 4792 points with secondary, when broken, down at a more painful 4480 points.

 

As always, we are discussing The FTSE, not after hours futures…

 

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:31:17PM	BRENT	29.66
9:35:35PM	GOLD	1529.07									Shambles
9:37:53PM	FTSE	5259.72									‘cess
9:46:33PM	FRANCE	3959	3754	3678.5	3564	3922	4025	4127.5	4296	3900	‘cess
10:12:27PM	GERMANY	8882									‘cess
10:15:18PM	US500	2484.67									Success
10:20:34PM	DOW	20926
10:22:49PM	NASDAQ	7329	7228	7147	7011	7417	7510	7593.5	7688	7283	Success
10:24:49PM	JAPAN	17186

17/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5294 points. Change of 2.78%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,128,689,221 a change of -13.38%

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

 

#FTSE #Gold #SP500 There was a certain thrill at being ordered to ‘self isolate’, when phoning the hospital if it was okay to turn up for a blood test while ‘enjoying’ a dripping cold. Suddenly, life got serious, along with a need to text everyone. The balloon of being special, swiftly punctured, when wife pointed out the only people I tend see regularly are hospital staff every three months for blood tests…

Covid-19 continues to disrupt normal peoples lives with the FTSE suffering a pretty dreadful Monday. If fairness, the drop was kick-started with an opening second 100 point reversal. This proved sufficient to ensure both targets given in our previous report were achieved by 8:30am, damping 289 points in the bank. We’re now rather invested in a simple little movement the FTSE enacted at 4pm.

Our most optimistic thoughts planned for the market achieving a rebound toward 5160 points but somehow or other, the FTSE achieved 5187, holding the level for a few minutes. If this upward surge is a sign of some strength making itself felt, we can calculate movement now above 5187 should bring an initial (tame) 5253 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculates at a more interesting 5424 points.

When we review after hours FTSE Futures, we’re not entirely sold on optimism. Visually, the greater danger appears to be of weakness below 4902 bringing reversal to an initial 4791 points. If broken, near term secondary is at 4738 points.

At present, the FTSE needs exceed 5425 points to break above the immediate March downtrend.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:34:47PM	BRENT	30.71									‘cess
9:41:25PM	GOLD	1514									Success
9:47:23PM	FTSE	5034									‘cess
10:20:46PM	FRANCE	3792									‘cess
10:23:16PM	GERMANY	8586									‘cess
10:25:56PM	US500	2420.79	2384	2369.5	2257	2475	2454	2484.5	2518	2395
10:29:03PM	DOW	20424									‘cess
10:31:13PM	NASDAQ	7068.25									‘cess
10:33:22PM	JAPAN	16490									‘cess

16/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5151 points. Change of -4.01%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,538,775,450 a change of -6.31%

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

 

#Brent #DAX #FTSE There’s something almost horrific about the words “Underlying Health Condition”. Even at this early stage, the media opt to slide the term in, following news of a Covid-19 death, obviously sending the comforting message – ‘you’ll be okay’ to the rest of the populace. Have gone through chemo in 2019, this writer enjoys an “underlying health condition” thus, is concerned. A lingering cold since Xmas gives a reminder of the strength – or otherwise – of the immune system.

We’re going to focus on the FTSE daily while this volatility remains as it certainly has an underlying health condition. Our report on Friday proved pretty concise, the market opting to march up to the top of a hill, then march all the way down again. It closed the day at 5323 points.

Weakness now below 5237 should anticipate reversal down to an initial 5136 points. If broken, secondary now calculates down at 4948 points. This is obviously pretty dangerous, tending confirm the risk of longer term reversal down to the 3,000’s. Unfortunately, the tightest visual stop loss level in this scenario is absurdly wide at 5404 points.

Above 5404 is supposed to generate a lift to 5444 points. If exceeded, secondary is at 5503 points. We have our doubts.

Finally, always remember we are discussing The FTSE during trading hours, not FTSE After Hours Futures.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
7:04:06PM	BRENT	35.32	33.33	31.905	25	35.3	36.7	39.135	41.15	33.7
7:06:38PM	GOLD	1530.66									‘cess
7:08:27PM	FTSE	5664									‘cess
8:18:52PM	FRANCE	4304									Success
8:25:31PM	GERMANY	9620.5	9050	8611	6987	9675	9732	9983	10294	9340	Success
8:52:09PM	US500	2669.2									Success
9:06:49PM	DOW	22860									Success
9:11:25PM	NASDAQ	7829									Success
9:38:40PM	JAPAN	17973									Success

 

 

13/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5366 points. Change of 2.46%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,248,883,463 a change of 60.84%

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

#DOW #Gold #FreeFutures We really hate sounding like panic merchants. Our commentary last Friday showed 5,260 on the chart, a number we felt worthy of display but we didn’t bother explaining the rational in the analysis. So, a drop of 1,467 points in a week saw the market close Thursday at 5,237 points. This is known as ‘ headless chicken’ territory…

What next, given the UK market closed a session below a major target level?

Rather surprisingly, we suspect some sort of rebound must be on the horizon, if only to allow the market to gather sufficient weight for future reversals. But we’re pretty far from confident any rebound will “stick”, given the FTSE is now trading lower than any point since 2012. We should probably abandon our inherent caution, instead adopting similar levels of misery to that adopted by a TV reporter interviewing a doctor.

The Big Picture now suggests weakness below 5237 should bring travel down to an initial 4969 points with secondary, if broken, at 4368 points. In fact, secondary could find itself at 3944, thanks the the market being manipulated downward at the open recently. Visually, there would normally be ample reason to hope for a rebound around the 4969 point but experience during March (hasn’t this been a long month!) constantly warns the only thing to expect is disappointment.

The market has been forcing the market down quite firmly!

This absurd suggestion comes, thanks to movements made in the opening second of trade. On the days the market was not actively forced downward at the open, reversals experienced were ‘only’ 60 and 70 points respectively. On the other two days this week, the market itself forced prices down at the open, creating an environment of panic. It’s certainly quite sobering to reflect on market reversals being caused by the market itself, perhaps taking advantage of an epidemic to maximise on a climate of fear.

Should the FTSE now manage below 3944 points, we’re looking at eventual reversal to a bottom (hopefully) of 3171 points. If achieved, this will be lower than 2009 and also, the crash of 2003.

Near term, we’ve a slight suspicion some sort of bounce may occur, so we’ll focus on recovery scenario first.

Above 5311 points is supposed to provoke recovery to a useless 5345 points. If exceeded, our secondary calculates up at 5427 points. And given the pace of descent, we can give a third target level, up at 5549 points, effectively the level the market stabilised for most of Thursdays session. If triggered, the tightest stop is at 5237 points.

Even for near term reversal potentials, we suggest looking at the Big Picture scenario above. Things are moving fast.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
10:51:23PM	BRENT	33.49	33.11	30.91		35.22	35.21	36.03		33.77	‘cess
10:54:54PM	GOLD	1576	1560	1549		1591	1609	1614		1566	Success
11:09:21PM	FTSE	5273	5194	5169		5354	5467	5620		5280	Success
11:11:29PM	FRANCE	3958	3943	3876.5		4103	4125	4172.5		4027	‘cess
11:14:37PM	GERMANY	8985	8843	8808		9121	9121	9195		8873	Success
11:18:22PM	US500	2452	2420	2372		2487	2553	2601		2492	Success
11:26:14PM	DOW	20934	20552	20480		21219	21555	21866		21220	Success
11:30:27PM	NASDAQ	7162.12	7059	6827		7486	7246	7302		7140	Success
11:33:19PM	JAPAN	17238	16949	16772.5		17542	17542	17646		17229	Success

 

 

12/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5237 points. Change of -10.87%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 6,993,953,766 a change of -24.85%

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

#Nasdaq #France Kimberly-Clark, owners of Andrex (the UK’s favourite toilet paper), must be laughing all the way to the loo, given UK public’ behaviour in response to CoronaVirus. Unsurprisingly, it looks like it shall need more than this countries irrational behaviour to save NYSE:KMB from being flushed. But first, some bumf.

It transpires the term “bumf” dates back to Victorian times, the word shortened from its original “bumfodder”. Which was the original name for toilet tissue. Thankfully, the word hasn’t strayed far from its roots, thanks to the vast levels of bumf received prior to the UK’s recent general election, materials still used to light the log fire!

As for Kimberly-Clark share price, it looks like weakness now below 131 should drive reversal to an initial 125 dollars. If (when) broken, we suspect it shall bottom at 105 dollars and hopefully rebound.

France, the CAC40, is looks a bit fraught. We last covered it in August 2019, giving criteria for reversal to 4728 points. It finally triggered reversal at the end of February and  since has been pretty much as expected, if rather fast. The index has now closed 3 sessions solidly below target, so we must dwell of downward potentials for the future.

The immediate situation is fairly blunt, the index requiring above 4990 points just to regain the prior uptrend… With the strength of downward commitment, we have our doubts. Instead, it appears weakness now below 4600 should bring reversal to an initial 4533. We’d hope for a real rebound at such a level as the implication below is quite dreadful. The secondary calculation comes in at 4358 points, taking the market to a “lower low” (yes, we’re getting fed up writing this) and placing the French index at risk of continuing downhill in the longer term to a bottom of 3094 points.

Of course, given the pace of recent reversals, “the longer term” could easily mean sometime next week!

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:39:34PM	BRENT	36.27									‘cess
9:43:29PM	GOLD	1635.49									Shambles
9:46:29PM	FTSE	5810.02									Success
9:55:10PM	FRANCE	4548.8	4506	4449.5	4291	4576	4630	4646	4674	4570	‘cess
10:22:49PM	GERMANY	10287
10:26:15PM	US500	2763
10:29:29PM	DOW	23740									‘cess
10:32:13PM	NASDAQ	8096	7900	7797	7577	8130	8231	8281.5	8383	8072
10:34:50PM	JAPAN	19265	18919	18852.5	18440	19220	19696	19974	20322	19396

 

11/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5876 points. Change of -1.41%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,307,244,216 a change of -11.98%

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

#FTSE #Japan Given it’s ‘amateur dramatic week’ for the price of Crude, a few emails reminded it’s worth a glance at Shell’s future price potentials. When we last reviewed them (link) we provided a scenario for 17 quid or less. Obviously, the share price has fully embraced these potentials, relaxing severely but curiously, there is an argument for a rebound.

Recovery anytime soon above above 1493p should prove useful, calculating with an initial price target at 1567p. Oddly (for us), despite this movement potential being rather trivial in the grand scheme of things, it’s a scenario we’re pretty comfortable with. Things become a bit more vague above 1567p as our secondary target works out at 1758p. Presently, all the secondary does is give hope for an attempt at the immediate downtrend (Blue). Only with price closure above this line dare we express sentiment of “proper” share price recovery commencing as we’re able to give 2239 as a third level target.

At time of writing, Shell are trading at 1371p and we’d now be inclined to alarm, if any excuse is found to drill down below 1243p. Movement such as this is liable to trigger reversal to an initial 1094p with secondary, if broken, down at 834p. Visually, the secondary calculation is absurd but unfortunately, so was our calculation yesterday which provided a drop target for Brent at 15 dollars.

Sometimes numbers, like politicians salaries, can be absurd. And unlike politicians salaries, they don’t have to be wrong.

FUTURES

Time Issued	Market	Price At Issue	Short Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Long Entry	Fast Exit	Slow Exit	Stop	Prior
9:56:45PM	BRENT	38.17
10:04:57PM	GOLD	1651
10:07:49PM	FTSE	6105.61	6016	5908.5	5800	6059	6234	6383.5	6609	6016	Success
10:09:47PM	FRANCE	4824.8
10:37:52PM	GERMANY	10760									Success
10:41:23PM	US500	2853.92									Success
10:43:54PM	DOW	24777									Success
10:46:32PM	NASDAQ	8299.68									Success
10:50:44PM	JAPAN	19715	19008	18777.5	18309	19483	20108	20283	20708	19500	‘cess

10/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5960 points. Change of -0.08%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 10,574,130,773 a change of -8.51%

9/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 5965 points. Change of -7.55%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,557,885,051 a change of 24.01%

6/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6452 points. Change of -3.77%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 9,320,342,676 a change of 15.12%

5/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6705 points. Change of -1.61%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,096,440,019 a change of 2.53%

4/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6815 points. Change of 1.44%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 7,896,662,173 a change of -10.1%

3/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6718 points. Change of 0.96%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 8,783,341,942 a change of -20.21%

2/03/2020 FTSE Closed at 6654 points. Change of 1.12%. Total value traded through LSE was: £ 11,007,742,370 a change of -20.6%