#Gold #Nasdaq Headlam, the UK’s leading floor-covering supplier, will probably be familiar to anyone who’s bought an older house and decided to do something with the kitchen, bathroom or hallway floor.
The moment you start lifting tired carpet, peeling back old laminate or wrestling with bargain wooden flooring, you often uncover an original sin lurking beneath: Linoleum (thankfully now largely replaced by Vinyl). Sometimes it was glued down, but more often it was simply pinned in place. Unfortunately, decades of age leave the material – made from linseed oil, sawdust, pine resin and chalk – brittle and unforgiving. Any hope of simply rolling it up quickly disappears. Instead, it’s a case of leaving it where it is or finding something soft for your knees, because you’re about to spend hours painstakingly scraping the awful stuff from the floor.
Years ago, when working for a car dealership, the instruction was to carefully score the dealer sticker with a Stanley knife before applying it to a new car. The idea was simple: make it almost impossible for the customer to remove the dealership’s branding. Stripping up old Linoleum has always felt like the flooring industry’s equivalent. After renovating several properties over the years, we’ve developed a healthy dislike for the stuff.
So, when Headlam acquired a Fife-based flooring company in 2011, it seemed inevitable they had ventured into the Linoleum business. Fife was, quite literally, the global capital of the lino industry. Thankfully, Vinyl has now replaced Linoleum in most homes and, one hopes, will prove a little kinder to whoever eventually has to remove it. Personally, we’re rather old-fashioned and still prefer carpet – especially if sharing a home with dogs.
Unfortunately, Headlam Group’s share price is performing about as well as the Scottish summer. Just when you think better weather has arrived, everything falls apart. Looking out at our garden waterfall today, it feels as though August’s monsoon has simply turned up a little early. Waterfalls are wonderful in theory, until you discover you have to live with the constant roar.
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The share price presents much the same gloomy picture. By our usual standards, the decline from 561p to around 5.24p places Headlam in exceptionally difficult territory. Once shares reach these levels, traditional support calculations become almost meaningless, with many theoretical floor targets existing somewhere below zero. In other words, it’s difficult to identify a level where we can confidently suggest the decline has finally run its course.
From our perspective, that’s a significant problem. Our own ultimate downside calculation had suggested 27p should represent a major floor. That level is now nothing more than a distant memory.
The longer-term picture only reinforces the concern. Looking back to price action since 2008, one event stands out. In 2023, while the shares were still trading above 200p, the market abruptly gapped below our long-term rising trend line, collapsing from around 239p to 180p. Gaps of this nature rarely send encouraging signals. Instead, they often mark the point where sentiment shifts decisively for the worse, suggesting the market had already begun discounting a far more difficult future.
At present, rather than trying to identify a definitive bottom, we’d much rather wait for evidence that a genuine recovery is underway.
The first encouraging sign would be a move back above 8.25p, which calculates with the potential to target an initial 12.5p. Beyond that, our secondary recovery level sits at 16.5p. This is the important one. A convincing close above 16.5p would indicate to our software that a proper upward movement cycle has begun. If achieved, it would open the door to ambitions around 38p and potentially higher.
For now, however, we’re not convinced Headlam has actually found its floor.
FUTURES
FUTURES
| Time Issued | Market | Price At Issue | Short Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Long Entry | Fast Exit | Slow Exit | Stop | Prior |
| 11:13:41PM | BRENT | 8276 | Success | ||||||||
| 11:16:47PM | GOLD | 4025.3 | 4011 | 4005 | 3968 | 4037 | 4055 | 4068 | 4087 | 4034 | ‘cess |
| 11:20:41PM | FTSE | 10895.7 | |||||||||
| 11:22:47PM | STOX50 | 6296.3 | |||||||||
| 11:25:28PM | GERMANY | 25496.6 | ‘cess | ||||||||
| 11:27:55PM | US500 | 7425.5 | Success | ||||||||
| 11:30:48PM | DOW | 52690 | Success | ||||||||
| 11:37:31PM | NASDAQ | 27786.6 | 27469 | 27138 | 27081 | 27589 | 27926 | 28132 | 28758 | 27740 | |
| 11:41:03PM | JAPAN | 62266 | ‘cess |
SUCCESS above means both FAST & SLOW targets were met. ‘CESS means just the FAST target met and probably the next time it is exceeded, movement to the SLOW target shall commence.
Our commentary is in two sections. Immediately below are today’s updated comments. If our commentary remains valid, the share can be found in the bottom section which has a RED heading. Hopefully, this will mean you no longer need to flip back through previous reports. HYPERLINKS DISABLED IN THIS VERSION
Please remember, all prices are mid-price (halfway between the Buy and Sell). When we refer to a price CLOSING above a specific level, we are viewing the point where we can regard a trend as changing. Otherwise, we are simply speculating on near term trading targets. Our website is www.trendsandtargets.com.
UPDATE. We often give an initial and a secondary price. If the initial is exceeded, we still expect it to fall back but the next time the initial is bettered, the price should continue to the secondary. The converse it true with price drops.
We can be contacted at info@trendsandtargets.com. Spam filters set to maximum so only legit emails get through…
Section One – Outlook Updated Today. Click here for Section Two – Outlook Remains Valid shares
Click Epic to jump to share: LSE:ASC Asos** **LSE:BME B & M** **LSE:CNA Centrica** **LSE:DGE Diageo** **LSE:EMG MAN** **LSE:EXPN Experian** **LSE:GENL Genel** **LSE:PHP Primary Health** **LSE:VOD Vodafone** **
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Updated charts published on : Asos, B & M, Centrica, Diageo, MAN, Experian, Genel, Primary Health, Vodafone,
LSE:ASC Asos. Close Mid-Price: 382.5 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 387.5 Day Low: 372
Further movement against Asos ABOVE 387.5 should improve acceleration tow ……..
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LSE:BME B & M. Close Mid-Price: 229.4 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 230.8 Day Low: 219.2
The next task for B & M is to get the price above 230.8 (not with a fake ……..
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LSE:CNA Centrica. Close Mid-Price: 155.2 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 160.9 Day Low: 154.95
Target met. Managing to get the share price BELOW 154p is the next proble ……..
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LSE:DGE Diageo. Close Mid-Price: 1672 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 1684.5 Day Low: 1616
If the price of Diageo manages to move ABOVE 1684.5p, initial UP target b ……..
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LSE:EMG MAN. Close Mid-Price: 306.4 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 327.2 Day Low: 304.4
Target met. The next task for MAN is to get the price above 327p (not wit ……..
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LSE:EXPN Experian. Close Mid-Price: 2981 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 2983 Day Low: 2814
Target met. If the price of Experian manages to move ABOVE 2983, initial ……..
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LSE:GENL Genel. Close Mid-Price: 51 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 51 Day Low: 49.9
Weakness on Genel below 49.9 will invariably lead to 47 with secondary (i ……..
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LSE:PHP Primary Health. Close Mid-Price: 97.25 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 97.25 Day Low: 94.8
All Primary Health needs are mid-price trades ABOVE 97.25 to improve acce ……..
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View Previous Primary Health & Big Picture ***
LSE:VOD Vodafone. Close Mid-Price: 123.25 Percentage Change: + 0.00% Day High: 123.75 Day Low: 119.05
The next task for Vodafone is to get the price above 123.75 (not with a f ……..
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View Previous Vodafone & Big Picture ***